全球宏观经济格局演变
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信号明确!1.9万亿资金主攻两大方向,跨年行情剧本已写好?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-01 07:35
Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a positive trend with all three major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by 1.31%, indicating resilience in the market [1] - The total trading volume surged to 1.89 trillion yuan, signaling a clear influx of new capital and providing substantial liquidity support for the market's structural rally [1] - The market showed a high degree of focus rather than broad participation, with the non-ferrous metals (+2.85%) and communication (+2.81%) sectors leading the gains, reflecting a shift driven by industrial logic and macroeconomic expectations [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The rise of the non-ferrous metals sector is attributed to macroeconomic factors and a resonance with commodity prices, particularly driven by the surge in London silver prices, which have increased by over 98% this year [2] - This trend is not merely a short-term speculative reflection but represents market pricing of the evolving global macroeconomic landscape, with leading companies like Jiangxi Copper closely tied to global commodity cycles [2] Communication Sector - The strong performance of the communication sector reflects the inherent growth logic of the technology industry and the trend towards domestic production [3] - The competition between Google TPU and Nvidia GPU has positively impacted the Chinese tech supply chain, emphasizing the necessity for self-sufficiency in core computing power [3] - The advancement of national strategies such as "East Data West Computing" and the construction of computing infrastructure, along with the rollout of 5G-A, provide a clear growth trajectory for the communication industry [3] - Sub-sectors like smart speakers, MCU chips, and eSIM cards have seen index increases of over 5%, indicating a revival and innovation in the consumer electronics sector driven by AI [3] Market Outlook - The market's operational logic is subtly shifting from being driven by policy expectations to focusing on profit expectations, with institutional funds likely to prioritize company fundamentals and valuation in their year-end adjustments [4] - The concurrent rise of the cyclical (non-ferrous) and growth (communication) sectors may signal a transition phase where macro and micro factors resonate, highlighting the diversity of market opportunities [4]