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特朗普将元素磷及草甘膦类除草剂列为“国防关键物资”有何影响?
Lian He Zi Xin· 2026-02-28 11:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Trump administration's executive order aims to safeguard the supply security of glyphosate - based herbicides and their upstream phosphate ore. It is expected to have limited short - term impact on the global phosphate ore market. [2][18] - For the Chinese domestic market, the order will support the high domestic phosphate ore prices since 2021, benefit enterprises with phosphate ore resources, and put cost pressure on downstream phosphochemical enterprises. It may also boost the short - term price of glyphosate products and help enterprises' profit recovery. [2][19] - In the long run, China's phosphochemical industry can maintain its leading position in the global phosphochemical industry chain, and the impact of this order is limited. [2][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Introduction and Background - On February 18, 2026, Trump signed an executive order under the Defense Production Act of 1950 and the United States Code, designating elemental phosphorus and glyphosate - based herbicides as defense - critical materials to protect domestic production in the US. [4] - The order states that elemental phosphorus is crucial for military readiness, defense, and agricultural advantage in the US, but the US has limited domestic production capacity, with over 6,000,000 kilograms of elemental phosphorus imported annually. [5] - The order requires the Secretary of Agriculture and the Secretary of War to ensure the continuous and sufficient supply of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate - based herbicides. [5] - The US government's policy is to promote "America First" industrial strength, and this order upgrades phosphate resources and downstream products to global strategic resources. [6] 3.2 Core Motivations of the Policy - Elemental phosphorus is used in a产业链 from phosphate ore mining to fertilizers, fine chemicals, and new energy materials. Glyphosate is the world's largest herbicide, and phosphorus chemicals are also important in the semiconductor industry. [7][8] - Globally, phosphate ore resources are unevenly distributed, with Morocco and Western Sahara having the dominant position. In 2025, global phosphate ore production is expected to increase slightly compared to 2024, and the price has been stable since 2023. [8] - In China, phosphate ore reserves have a low global share and low average grade. The government has implemented policies to control mining and promote efficient use. Since 2021, domestic phosphate ore prices have been high. [10][11] - China has a large share of global phosphate ore production and glyphosate capacity, with a complete industrial chain. The US has limited domestic glyphosate production capacity and is highly dependent on imports from China. [15][17] 3.3 Core Impacts of the Policy - In the short term, the global phosphate ore market is expected to remain stable due to sufficient supply from Morocco and increasing demand. [18] - For the Chinese domestic market, the order will support high phosphate ore prices, benefit enterprises with phosphate ore resources, and put cost pressure on downstream phosphochemical enterprises. It will also boost the short - term price of glyphosate products and help enterprises' profit recovery. [19] - In the long run, the US and other countries may increase investment in phosphate ore development and phosphochemical industries. China's phosphochemical industry can maintain its leading position in the global industry chain due to government policies. [19][20]