证券研究报告 | 2025年08月26日 兴发集团（600141.SH） 优于大市 磷矿石、草甘膦盈利提升，多项目培育新利润增长点 磷化工全产业链平稳运行，上半年利润保持稳健。2025 年上半年，公司实现营 业收入 146.20 亿元，同比增长 9.07%；实现归母净利润 7.27 亿元，同比下 降 9.72%；销售毛利率为 16.44%，同比下降 0.94 pcts。分业务来看，2024 年上半年，公司矿山采选业务实现营业收入 15.50 亿元，同比增长 19.64%， 毛利率 78.27%，同比提升 6.55 pcts；特种化学品业务实现营业收入 26.15 亿元，同比增长 0.28%，毛利率 18.03%，同比下降 7.42 pcts；肥料业务实 现营业收入 19.24 亿元，毛利率 6.60%；农药业务实现营业收入 25.68 亿元， 毛利率 12.46%；有机硅业务实现营业收入 13.69 亿元，同比增长 16.62%， 毛利率-2.22%，同比提升 2.22 pcts；商贸物流业务实现营业收入 25.14 亿 元，同比增长 18.44%，毛利率 3.24%，同比提升 1.43 pcts。公司上半年 ...

根据《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管规则适用指引第 3 号——行 业信息披露》其《第十三号——化工》、《关于做好主板上市公司 2025 年 半年度报告披露工作的重要提醒》的要求，安徽六国化工股份有限公司现 将 2025 年上半年主要经营数据披露如下： 注：产量中磷酸一铵含自用，复合肥销量中含贴牌。 股票代码：600470 股票简称：六国化工 公告编号：2025-049 安徽六国化工股份有限公司 2025 年上半年主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、 主要产品的产量、销量及收入实现情况 主要产品 2025 年1 至 6 月产量 （吨） 2025 年 1 至6 月销量 （吨） 2025 年 1 至 6 月销售 金额（万元） 磷酸二铵 266,208.80 245,017.10 82,613.42 复合肥 469,365.99 473,310.38 108,764.27 磷酸一铵 252,247.45 158,233.01 57,409.06 | 硫酸 | 外购 | 532,955.20 | 273 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.

2025 年 8 月 24 日 行业研究 磷肥出口二阶段配额落地，磷矿石价格坚挺行业景气依旧 ——基础化工行业周报（20250818-20250824） 要点 6 月开始进入磷酸一铵及磷酸二铵的出口集中期。当前我国肥料级磷酸一铵 及磷酸二铵出口需要进行法检同时执行配额制，根据往年情况出口配额通常 集中在 5-9 月期间。然而，根据海关总署数据 2025 年我国磷铵出口时间整 体有所延后，2025 年自 6 月开始磷铵出口量才出现明显上升。2025 年 1-7 月，我国磷酸一铵和磷酸二铵出口总量分别为 60.1 万吨和 158.3 万吨，同比 分别减少 49.4%和 21.7%。其中，2025 年 5-7 月我国磷酸一铵和磷酸二铵 的出口总量分别为 52.6 万吨和 150.4 万吨，相较于 2024 年 5-7 月出口总量 分别变动-40.1%和+1.4%。基于此，我们认为 2025 年我国磷铵出口将集中 在 Q3 进行，但考虑到 1-7 月出口量的明显缩减，我们预计 2025 年全年磷铵 出口量将少于 2024 年水平。 2025 年磷铵出口二阶段配额基本落地，当前海外磷铵价格仍显著高于国内水 平。2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the price increases of lithium carbonate and photoinitiators, suggesting a potential recovery in the chemical industry driven by anti-involution trends [1] - The basic chemical sector has shown strong relative performance, with a 39.4% increase over the past 12 months compared to the 25.7% increase in the CSI 300 index [3] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The report notes a decline in the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index to 92.75 as of August 14, 2025, down 0.11 from August 7, 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - Key opportunities identified include: 1. Low-cost expansion in companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Satellite Chemical, and others [5] 2. Improvement in industry prosperity for chromium salts, phosphate rock, and various chemical sectors [6] 3. Focus on new materials with high growth potential and low domestic substitution rates [7] 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises like China Petroleum and Sinopec [8] Price Analysis of Key Products - Industrial-grade lithium carbonate price increased by 9.93% to 83,000 CNY/ton [10] - Photoinitiator (TPO) price rose by 5.56% to 95 CNY/kg [10] - Polyester filament price increased by 2.16% to 7,100 CNY/ton [10] Company Performance Tracking - Notable companies such as Zhenhua Co. reported a 10.17% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025 [13] - Wanhua Chemical's pure MDI price was reported at 17,900 CNY/ton, with a slight increase [11] Market Observations - The report indicates a potential inventory replenishment cycle in the chemical sector due to anticipated fiscal policy support in China and the US [29]

Group 1: Macro and Financial Data Insights - In July, the growth of M1 and M2 exceeded market expectations, with M2 expanding by 8.8% year-on-year and M1 growing by 5.6%, up from 8.3% and 4.6% in June respectively [2][3] - New social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, lower than the Bloomberg consensus of 1.63 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, indicating a shift in financing structure and seasonal factors [2][3] - The stock of social financing grew at a rate of 9.0% year-on-year, an increase from 8.9% in June, with seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth rising from 8.4% to 9.6% [2][3] Group 2: Banking Sector Analysis - The July social financing increment of 1.16 trillion yuan was below the expected 1.41 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion yuan [5] - The government bonds were the main support for social financing in July, while M1 growth showed a marginal recovery [5] - A new consumption loan subsidy policy is expected to stimulate the growth of consumer loans, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector [5] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Tencent's Q2 revenue grew by 14.5% year-on-year, exceeding consensus expectations, with significant growth in value-added services, advertising, and fintech revenues [11] - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming launch of several major shooting games, which could drive both player engagement and monetization [11] - Huatai Securities initiated coverage on Yuntianhua with a "buy" rating, citing its leading position in the phosphate industry and expected steady demand growth for fertilizers [15] Group 4: Technology and Robotics - The introduction of teaching-free robots is transforming the welding industry, addressing labor shortages and improving efficiency through advanced visual systems and welding software [7] - These robots are expected to penetrate more complex applications, such as shipbuilding, as technology continues to evolve [7] Group 5: Consumer and E-commerce Trends - SEA's Q2 revenue reached $5.26 billion, a 38.2% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in e-commerce and digital financial services [29] - The company anticipates continued growth in its e-commerce GMV, projecting a 25% year-on-year increase for Q3 [29] - Tencent Music's Q2 revenue was 8.44 billion yuan, up 17.9% year-on-year, benefiting from rapid growth in super memberships and strong performance in non-subscription services [27]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 08 月 07 日 新洋丰（000902.SZ） 上半年业绩符合预期，盈利能力进一步提升 周期/化工 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报，报告期内实现收入 93.98 亿元，同比增长 11.63%， 归母净利润 9.51 亿元，同比增长 28.98%，扣非净利润 9.12 亿元，同比增长 28.15%；其中二季度单季实现收入 47.30 亿元，同比下降 6.97%，归母净利润 4.37 亿元，同比增长 10.96%。 ❑ 风险提示：原材料价格大幅波动、产品放量不及预期、新项目投产不及预期。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 15100 | 15563 | 17250 | 18615 | 19956 | | 同比增长 | -5% | 3% | 11% | 8% | 7% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 1422 | 1590 | 1975 | 2213 | 2428 | | 同比增长 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025. It highlights Shengquan Group's role as a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, benefiting from increasing server shipments. Hailide is noted for its leadership in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to benefit from U.S. tariff conflicts. Zhuoyue New Energy is recognized for its capacity growth and new product launches, which are anticipated to elevate its performance [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry index closed at 3727.14 points, down 1.46% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.29% [10]. - Key chemical products such as TDI, epoxy chloropropane, lithium hydroxide, formic acid, and phosphoric acid saw significant price increases [21]. Key Sub-Industry Tracking - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: The report indicates a peak export window for phosphate fertilizers, with exports expected to alleviate domestic overcapacity and maintain profitability for large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - **Pesticides**: Following a chemical safety incident, the report anticipates a nationwide safety inspection that may lead to the elimination of non-compliant production capacities, potentially boosting the pesticide industry's outlook [3]. - **Polyester Filament**: The report notes a slight increase in polyester filament prices, driven by rising production costs and a modest uptick in demand, although overall market conditions remain weak [24][25]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.03 in 2024, with a PE ratio of 31, while Hailide's EPS is expected to be 0.35 with a PE of 16. Zhuoyue New Energy is forecasted to achieve an EPS of 1.24 with a PE of 35 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the phosphate industry in China, highlighting the challenges faced by the ammonium phosphate sector due to regulatory changes and market dynamics, while also noting the potential for export opportunities in the second half of 2025 [2][3][4][7]. Group 1: Industry Overview - As of July 18, 2025, the Chinese government plans to implement a new round of growth stabilization measures for key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, which may indirectly impact the phosphate sector [2]. - Since 2022, stricter export policies for ammonium phosphate have led to a significant decline in production and operating rates, with the operating rate for monoammonium phosphate dropping to 56.3% in 2022, and remaining below 60% in 2023 and beyond [3][4]. Group 2: Profitability and Market Dynamics - The profitability of ammonium phosphate has been under pressure due to high raw material costs and subdued export demand, with average gross profits for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate reported at -58.7 CNY/ton and -128.9 CNY/ton respectively in the first half of 2025 [4][5]. - Leading companies in the phosphate sector have managed to maintain profitability by securing upstream resources, while those lacking such integration face significant financial challenges [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The average price of domestic phosphate rock was approximately 1019 CNY/ton in the first half of 2025, showing a slight increase from the previous year, but no growth in effective production capacity was observed [6]. - New phosphate rock production capacity is expected to be delayed, with only 250,000 tons projected to come online in 2025, indicating a continued high demand for existing high-grade phosphate rock [6]. Group 4: Export Opportunities - The price gap between domestic and international ammonium phosphate has widened, with international prices rising significantly due to geopolitical factors, creating potential for increased exports from China in the latter half of 2025 [7]. - Export quotas for ammonium phosphate are typically concentrated in the second and third quarters, suggesting that a surge in exports may occur in Q3 2025, benefiting domestic exporters [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the phosphate chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall operating rate of phosphate ammonium is low, but leading companies have sufficient resources and can achieve considerable profits [1][5] - Since 2022, stricter export policies for phosphate ammonium have led to a decline in domestic operating rates, with the operating rate for monoammonium phosphate remaining below 60% [4][5] - The profitability of the phosphate ammonium segment is under pressure, but leading companies benefit from their upstream resource reserves [5][6] - The price gap between domestic and overseas phosphate ammonium has widened, with expectations for increased exports in Q3 due to high overseas prices [7][16] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The phosphate ammonium industry has faced challenges due to export restrictions and regulatory impacts, leading to a significant drop in production and operating rates [4] - The average operating rate for monoammonium phosphate in the first half of 2025 was approximately 53.2% [4] Profitability Analysis - The average gross profit margins for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate were negative in the first half of 2025, marking a significant decline compared to previous years [5] - Leading companies have managed to maintain profitability through strategic resource allocation and upstream integration [5][6] Market Dynamics - The average price of domestic phosphate rock has seen a slight increase, with expectations for continued high demand in the medium term [6] - The report highlights the potential for increased exports of phosphate fertilizers in Q3, driven by higher overseas prices [7][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies such as Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated industry consolidation and resource advantages [16]