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百果园(之二) | 童话破灭,夺路而逃
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-19 01:39
Core Viewpoint - The stock performance of Baiguoyuan has significantly declined following the expiration of the lock-up period, leading to substantial losses for shareholders and a loss of investor confidence in the company's future prospects [4][5][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - On January 16, 2024, Baiguoyuan's stock price plummeted by 45% over seven trading days, coinciding with the expiration of the lock-up period for major shareholders [4]. - The stock's trading volume on the lock-up expiration day reached 24.93 million shares, more than three times the average daily volume over the previous month, indicating significant selling pressure from major shareholders [5]. - Baiguoyuan's market capitalization has dropped from an estimated 12 billion yuan at the time of its last financing to just 5.3 billion yuan, reflecting a severe loss in value [6]. Group 2: Shareholder Actions and Company Strategy - Major shareholders, including the founders, are now free to sell their shares, which has raised concerns about further declines in stock price [4][5]. - In response to the impending lock-up expiration, Baiguoyuan announced a strategic development plan aiming for a gross merchandise volume exceeding 100 billion yuan and a store count of over 10,000 [7]. - The company also proposed a share buyback plan of up to 634 million yuan to repurchase up to 10% of its shares, indicating an attempt to stabilize the stock price [7]. Group 3: Consumer Trust and Brand Image - Baiguoyuan is facing a significant decline in consumer trust, with complaints about product quality and service increasing, leading to a negative perception among customers [10][11]. - The company's handling of customer complaints has been criticized, with reports of poor service and a shift away from previously favorable return policies [11]. - The loss of consumer confidence poses a long-term threat to Baiguoyuan's business sustainability, as it may struggle to attract and retain customers in a competitive market [11][12].