Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - Trump's military pressure on Iran is likely a threat to force concessions in negotiations rather than a real intention to start a war. The probability of a military strike has significantly decreased compared to the beginning of the year. If an agreement is reached between the US and Iran, the threat to the Strait of Hormuz will be eliminated, and oil prices will return to being driven by fundamentals [2] Summary by Relevant Content Market News and Key Data - WTI March crude oil futures closed down $1.79, or 2.77%, at $62.84 per barrel; Brent April crude oil futures closed down $1.88, or 2.71%, at $67.52 per barrel [1] - On February 12, the Kremlin proposed to "re - embrace the US dollar" as part of building a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration. The proposal involves potential cooperation in fossil energy investment and could reshape the global financial landscape [1] - On February 12, the IEA lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 850,000 barrels per day from 930,000 barrels per day in January. OPEC's research department predicts a 1.38 - million - barrel - per - day increase in 2026 oil demand [1] - Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran in about a month and warns of "very serious" consequences if no agreement is reached. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu questions the enforceability of the agreement [1] Investment Logic - Trump's military pressure on Iran is a negotiation tactic. Due to the mid - term election pressure, the cost of attacking Iran is high, and the probability of a military strike has decreased. If an agreement is reached, oil prices will be driven by fundamentals [2] Strategy - Short - term: oil prices will fluctuate within a range. Due to high uncertainty in the Iran situation, risk prevention is necessary. Medium - term: short - position allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: Sanctioned oil turning into compliant oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks: Tightening supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - Stablecoins are emerging products in the digital finance sector, rapidly developing globally and increasingly impacting sovereign currency systems, cross-border payments, and financial stability [1] Group 1: Development and Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are defined as new digital assets that combine the efficiency of cryptocurrencies with the stability of fiat currencies, categorized into fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, and algorithmic types [2] - Stablecoins offer advantages in cross-border payments, including efficiency and low costs, but also face risks such as insufficient reserves, algorithm failures, clearing difficulties, and regulatory uncertainties [2] - The development of stablecoins is influenced by the depth of financial markets and the level of legal systems, with their heterogeneity and cross-border nature posing challenges to existing regulatory frameworks [3] Group 2: Regulatory and Governance Challenges - The credit risk, liquidity risk, and de-pegging risk of stablecoins can affect not only individual markets but also the global financial system, necessitating a "same risk, same regulation" principle in global stability regulation [3] - China is encouraged to promote international cooperation in regulatory information exchange, risk assessment, and joint crisis response measures to improve the cross-border governance framework of stablecoins [3] Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - Stablecoins are seen as a product of the competition between national and market credit in the digital age, with the U.S. aiming to consolidate the dollar's dominance while China should explore a supply chain-based stablecoin issuance strategy [4] - The rise of stablecoins may weaken the global position of the dollar and its influence within the SWIFT system, presenting both opportunities and risks for China in balancing national security and economic development [5] Group 4: Future Prospects and Strategic Recommendations - Stablecoins represent a new form of currency in the tokenized era, with significant potential in cross-border payments and inclusive finance, prompting China to actively participate in their development [6] - Experts agree that while stablecoins present opportunities, they also come with multiple challenges across technology, law, and politics, necessitating a strategic exploration of stablecoin development paths by China [6]