长期以来，美国凭借美元国际储备货币的地位，享受着以低成本融资、高投资收益、危机时逆周期的融资能力为代表的诸多特权。然而，近年来这一格局 似乎出现了变数。有观点认为，其他国家也开始享受类似的融资便利，美元的低成本融资特权正在被"稀释"[2]；也有声音指出，美国自身的海外投资净收 益持续下滑，其高投资收益的特权似乎也在"消失"[3]。更不同寻常的是，在2025年4月的中美关税冲击事件中，资金并未如预期般涌向美债避险，反而选 择了抛售，导致美债收益率飙升。我们不禁要问：美元霸权究竟发生了什么？ 在国际货币体系中，"霸权国"（Hegemon）指的是具备足够经济实力与政治意愿，为全球经济体系提供核心公共产品的国家。自布雷顿森林体系确立以 来，尽管历经演变，美元的霸权地位（Dollar Hegemony）长期稳固。 本文认为，美元霸权的基石是美债的"安全资产"地位。所谓"安全资产"，是指既能长期保值、又能随时变现，并在危机时体现为负β属性（即市场下行时 反而升值）的资产[4]。在此基石上，美元霸权具体表现为三重特权：日常的低利率融资、巨大的债务展期空间以及危机时逆势增强的融资能力。 在流行叙事中，霸权和特权常常被混用。需 ...

中国连续9月增持黄金，还是买的太少了？特朗普对瑞士加征39%关税 7月中国央行又悄悄往自家金库塞了6万盎司黄金，连续第9个月"蚂蚁搬家式囤金"，总储备飙到7396万盎司（约2300吨）。 而美国华尔街为了唱空黄金，开始说，随着中国央行增持黄金的量越来越少，很可能在未来几个月的时间里停止增持。没有了央行的助力，黄金的价格可 能会大幅回落。 特朗普政府为了巩固美元霸权终于开始对瑞士动手了，宣布要对瑞士加征惩罚性的关税，这个举动却引发了黄金价格的大幅度波动。 中国央行增持的黄金的脚步会如外资所预测的那样停下吗？中国对黄金的持有量是不是还是太少了？ 中国"囤金术"：细水长流背后的暗战逻辑 根据央视财经新闻报道，由于瑞士联邦主席没有能够和美国总统特朗普达成贸易协议，所以特朗普决定要对瑞士征收39%的惩罚性关税。 美国媒体路透社的报道说，瑞士联邦主席凯勒-祖特尔访美期间未能与特朗普会面，仅与美国国务卿鲁比奥举行了会谈，瑞士方面提出的10%关税税率被 美方拒绝。 预计这个惩罚性的关税将会于今日开始正式实施。 受到这件事情和中国央行增持黄金的双重影响，国际黄金价格再度创出新高，纽约期货黄金交易所黄金价格最高涨至3534美元。 ...

中国狂抛，美联储无奈"隐秘购债"，中国猛囤黄金，谁将挺到最后 坚守了一天的美元资产防线最终还是在昨天晚上被做空美国的金融资本们攻破了，十年期美国国债收益 率再度站上了4.5%以上，这对于美联储和特朗普政府团队来说可并不是什么好消息。 虽然美国财政部长贝森特一直在强调美债的在全球央行中的地位依然稳固，但是市场的数据从来不说假 话。 现如今美债还是最安全的避险资产吗？海外央行对美债的抛售到底有多少？ 美联储"隐秘购债" 根据美国银行公布的最新数据，5月份上半月，有38%的机构投资者为净减持美国股票，是2023年5月以 来的最低水平。对于美债的减持可以说是不约而同开启的。 当海外央行和投资机构开始减持美债的时候，能够接盘美债的就只剩下了美联储。 事实上，美联储早就悄悄的停止了紧缩计划，开始接盘市场上多余的美债。 根据媒体披露的数据显示，4月8日88亿美元30年期美债悄然流入美联储账户。 这并非孤立操作——过去一周，美联储已累计买入436亿美元国债。 尽管美联储对自己的操作有所辩解，坚称这只是"技术性再投资"，但市场早已嗅到恐慌：美国三大评级 机构集体将美债踢出"AAA安全区"，36.7万亿美元债务压顶，连特朗普都紧 ...

在楚科奇冰封的海岸线上，监测站默默记录着海冰的每一次细微位移；与此同时，远在万里之外的上海外汇交易中心，人民币对一篮子货币的汇率曲线则在 屏幕上坚定地延伸。这看似毫不相关的两幕，却共同构成了一幅微妙而深刻的时代图景：美元霸权的松动，以及中国在全球经济格局中日益增长的影响力。 美国国债，这个曾经被视为全球经济基石的象征，如今正以令人不安的速度膨胀。美国国债钟上的数字，以每秒10万美元的惊人速度飞速跳动，8月12日， 总债务赫然突破37万亿美元的天堑。财政部如履薄冰，每天睁开眼的第一件事，便是为偿还高达250亿美元的旧债而焦头烂额。而一句带着自嘲意味的美国 论坛热帖——"当年你们用航母逼我们买美债，如今我们用美债逼你们拆航母"——则像一根锋利的针，刺破了这颗摇摇欲坠的巨型债务气球。 就在这风雨飘摇之际，2025年6月，中国的一次看似微不足道的举动，却在华尔街和华盛顿引发了震动：增持1亿美元美国国债。要知道，这笔资金甚至不足 以购买一艘最新型的驱逐舰。然而，其象征意义和战略意图，却远超其本身价值。 中国选择的时机堪称老练：就在特朗普政府宣布暂缓对华加征关税仅仅36小时后，美国财政部的数据库便更新了这1亿美元的变动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential freezing of China's $3.4 trillion overseas assets by the West in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict could have severe economic repercussions for both China and the United States, with the latter facing a GDP decline of 8%-15% while China could manage a recession of less than 5% [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The freezing of Chinese assets could lead to a 30% depreciation of the Renminbi, skyrocketing import costs, and a potential global recession, with the WTO estimating a $3 trillion contraction in global trade due to US-China tensions [3]. - The total foreign assets in China amount to $5.8 trillion, which includes significant investments from major companies like Apple and Tesla, indicating a potential vulnerability for Western firms if China retaliates [4]. Group 2: Retaliatory Measures - China has the capability to implement reciprocal asset freezes, which could severely impact Western companies operating in China, such as Starbucks and Apple, leading to substantial revenue losses [4][5]. - The export controls on gallium and germanium have already demonstrated China's ability to influence global supply chains, with significant price increases and production cuts in the US military sector [6]. Group 3: Financial Leverage - China's reduction of US Treasury holdings from $1.3 trillion to approximately $800 billion poses a threat to US fiscal stability, with potential increases in bond yields and interest payments if China were to sell off its remaining holdings [7]. - The rise of the Renminbi as a trade financing currency, surpassing the Euro, and the establishment of the CIPS payment system indicate a shift away from dollar dependency, which could destabilize the US dollar's dominance [7][9]. Group 4: Mutual Dependence - The interdependence between the US and China means that any economic sanctions or asset freezes could lead to significant price increases in the US, affecting consumer goods and agricultural products [9]. - China's strategic preparations, including increasing gold reserves and diversifying foreign exchange holdings, are aimed at mitigating risks associated with potential US sanctions [9][11]. Group 5: Conclusion of the Analysis - The analysis suggests that freezing Chinese assets could trigger a global economic crisis, with both nations holding significant leverage over each other, indicating that neither side would emerge as a clear winner in this financial standoff [11].

从贝森特的这番言论不难看出，美国那些政客并不是不知道，特朗普对全球加征关税所带来的长期负面影响。 美国财长的上述言论，从更深层次也可以理解为，美国并不是真的想要跟世界脱节，搞闭关锁国的那一套，特朗普只想在短期内向世界各国敲诈点利益，多 捞些"快钱"。 贝森特暗示关税会像"融化的冰块"一样被撤销，但前提是制造业回流美国，那么特朗普能实现这一点吗？ 近日，美国财长贝森特在接受日本媒体采访时表示：美国对其他国家进口商品征收的"对等关税"就像"融化的冰块"，可能会消失，但前提是所谓的贸易失 衡，得先按美国的标准"纠正"过来，制造业先回流美国。 这样做，一方面是自己任期内有钱花；另一方面，搞出一些能够超越前任总统并且标新立异的成就，为美国优先张目，为自己以及共和党脸上贴金。 但长期来看，美国仍然会继续融入全球化。 理由很简单，美元霸权离不开全球化。 但问题是，所谓的贸易失衡能够按照美国的标准"纠正"过来吗？制造业能回流美国吗？ 客观来讲，特朗普要想实现这两点，基本不太可能。 除非美国自己彻底放弃美元霸权。 因为在美国政府只要开动印钞机，就能从全球随便购买商品的背景下，他们的制造业怎么可能重振呢？ 既然能靠印钱就能过上轻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending decline of the US dollar's dominance, triggered by various economic and political factors, leading to significant volatility in global financial markets [1][4][11]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates at 4.25-4.5%, with a focus on controlling inflation, while omitting previous language suggesting potential rate cuts [3][9]. - The probability of a rate cut in September surged to 62.6%, with speculation of four rate cuts under a new chairperson [3][9]. - The internal conflict within the Federal Reserve was highlighted by a historic 9:2 vote against the chairperson's decision, marking the first public dissent since 1993 [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The financial markets exhibited a split behavior, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping nearly 1%, while the Nasdaq reached a historic high, driven by tech giants like Nvidia and Tesla [3][4]. - Gold futures prices surged past $3444 per ounce, and a significant increase in silver ETF holdings was noted, indicating a market bet on future monetary easing [3][4]. - The volatility in the markets reflects a broader concern over the potential for a bubble, given the high leverage in the US stock market [3][4]. Group 3: Global Financial Landscape - Central banks globally sold $36 billion in US Treasury bonds in April and accumulated 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, indicating a shift away from the dollar [4][11]. - The concept of "de-dollarization" is gaining traction, with countries like Brazil and entities in the EU and ASEAN exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade [4][11]. - The US dollar index has fallen by 9.15% this year, prompting investors to seek ways to mitigate the risks associated with dollar depreciation [4][11]. Group 4: Economic Data Contradictions - The second quarter GDP growth was attributed to a decrease in imports, while domestic demand growth hit a two-and-a-half-year low [7][9]. - Job creation in the private sector exceeded expectations, but the drop in unemployment was due to a reduction in labor supply rather than increased demand [7][9]. - Inflationary pressures are evident, with nearly 90% of businesses planning to pass on costs to consumers, exacerbated by tariffs [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the turmoil in the financial markets triggered by President Trump's unexpected directive for a 300 basis point interest rate cut, the rising probability of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dismissal, and the surge in the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassing 5% [1][2]. Group 1: Political Impact - Trump's tweet serves as a public pressure tactic on the Federal Reserve, directly threatening Powell's position, causing the probability of his dismissal to jump from 16% to 26% within four hours [2]. - The market reacted sharply, with gold prices rising by $20 per ounce and the dollar index dropping by 25 points, indicating heightened volatility and uncertainty [2]. - Deutsche Bank issued a warning that Powell's potential dismissal could lead to a 3% drop in the dollar and a 40 basis point increase in long-term Treasury yields [2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - A significant internal conflict within the Federal Reserve emerged, with a historic 9-2 vote against Chairman Powell's decision, marking the first time since 1993 that two board members publicly opposed the chairman [4]. - The debate centered around the impact of tariffs on inflation, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising to 2.9%, highlighting the tension between inflationary pressures and interest rate policies [4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The second quarter GDP growth appears strong, but domestic demand growth has fallen to a two-and-a-half-year low, indicating underlying economic weaknesses [5]. - The labor market shows a paradox with 104,000 new private sector jobs added, but the unemployment rate's decline is attributed to a decrease in labor supply rather than increased demand [5]. - Nearly 90% of businesses plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers, suggesting further inflationary pressures ahead [5]. Group 4: Global Financial Landscape - In April, global central banks sold $36 billion in U.S. Treasuries, reflecting waning confidence in dollar assets, while accumulating 280 tons of gold, the highest in 20 years [6]. - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with countries seeking to reduce reliance on the dollar, as evidenced by the EU and ASEAN's efforts to create a trade network independent of the dollar [6]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The financial markets displayed a split reaction, with the Dow Jones index falling nearly 1% while the Nasdaq reached a historic high, symbolizing the diminishing dominance of the dollar [8]. - Nvidia's stock surged by 1.87%, pushing its market cap above $4.3 trillion, while Tesla signed a $16.5 billion chip contract with Samsung, fueling enthusiasm in the semiconductor sector [8]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5% aligns with market expectations, but the omission of previous language suggesting potential rate cuts has dampened market sentiment [10]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in September are strong, with a 62.6% probability, and speculation about the new Fed chair's potential actions to stimulate economic growth [10]. - The looming non-farm payroll data is critical, as a slowdown in job growth could trigger further instability in the dollar's status and the global financial markets [10].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25% marks the fifth consecutive hold since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty [2] - The U.S. economy shows conflicting signals, with GDP growth masking a significant drop in domestic demand, and the labor market exhibiting a paradox of job creation alongside a declining unemployment rate due to reduced labor supply [3] - The political landscape is volatile, with former President Trump's tweet demanding a 300 basis point rate cut causing market turmoil and speculation about the Fed Chair's job security [4][6] - The Federal Reserve's internal debate over interest rates has reached a historic level of division, with a 9-2 vote reflecting significant dissent among board members, the first such occurrence in 32 years [8] - Global financial dynamics are shifting, with central banks selling U.S. Treasuries and accumulating gold, indicating a loss of confidence in the dollar and a trend towards de-dollarization [9] - The stock market is experiencing a split, with the Dow Jones index declining nearly 1% while the Nasdaq reaches a new all-time high, driven by tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla [10] - Precious metals markets are witnessing significant activity, with gold futures surpassing $3444 per ounce and a notable increase in silver ETF holdings, suggesting a market bet on future monetary easing [12] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, with a 62.6% probability of a cut in September and predictions of multiple cuts if economic conditions worsen [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential decline of the US dollar's dominance, triggered by a $37 trillion national debt and escalating tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve, as global central banks rapidly accumulate gold reserves [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The second quarter GDP data appears strong, but the growth is primarily due to a decrease in imports, with domestic demand growth at its lowest in two and a half years [3]. - The private sector added 104,000 jobs in July, exceeding expectations, but the drop in unemployment is mainly due to a reduction in labor supply rather than increased demand [3]. - Interest payments on national debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion, meaning that one out of every four dollars in federal tax revenue will be used for debt servicing [3]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - A heated nine-hour meeting at the Federal Reserve resulted in a 9-2 vote against an immediate 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time in over 30 years that two board members publicly opposed the chair's decision [5]. - President Trump made an unprecedented visit to the Federal Reserve, indicating rising tensions between the White House and the central bank, with discussions about selecting a new Fed chair already underway [5][6]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is estimated at 62.6%, with predictions of multiple cuts if a new chair is appointed [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The Nasdaq index reached a historic high, with Nvidia's stock price rising 1.87% and its market capitalization surpassing $4.3 trillion [6]. - Gold futures prices surged past $3,444 per ounce, and the largest silver ETF saw a single-day increase of 347.58 tons, the largest in 15 months [6]. - The Deutsche Bank trading floor issued warnings that if Powell were to be dismissed, the dollar could plummet by 3%, leading to a 40 basis point increase in long-term Treasury yields [1][5]. Group 4: Global Financial Landscape - Global central banks sold $36 billion in US Treasuries in April and accumulated 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, the highest in two decades [5]. - The dollar's reserve share has dropped from 72% to 58%, while the ASEAN's renminbi settlement rate surged to 38% [5]. - The UK central bank is testing extreme scenarios of a complete collapse of the dollar swap market, indicating significant concerns about the dollar's stability [5].