Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's performance growth is in line with expectations, and it has announced a special dividend to reward shareholders [5] - The company is a leading player in the express logistics sector, with ongoing improvements in service quality and an expanding network of franchisees driving volume growth [7] - Despite short-term pressure on unit revenue due to weak demand, the company is expected to improve its unit gross margin through refined management and cost reductions [7] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company achieved a revenue of approximately 56.25 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and an adjusted net profit of about 4.76 billion RMB, up 10.7% year-on-year [7] - The company forecasts revenue growth from 11,576 million RMB in 2024 to 16,162 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.7% [8] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 9.6 billion RMB, 10.6 billion RMB, and 12.6 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.1x, 8.2x, and 7.0x [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing continuous network integration, leading to sustained growth in performance. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of approximately 2.587 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and an adjusted net profit of about 242 million RMB, up 15.9% year-on-year [8] - The company has optimized its service quality, with the average delivery time reduced to 65 hours, a lost package rate of 0.02 per 100,000 items, and a complaint rate of 33.2 per 100,000 shipments. The number of freight partners has increased to over 36,000 as of March 2025, up from approximately 29,400 in March 2024 [8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its regional structure and channel layout, which is expected to lead to a steady increase in unit revenue over the long term [8] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 9,917 million RMB - 2024: 11,576 million RMB (growth rate: 16.7%) - 2025E: 13,185 million RMB (growth rate: 13.9%) - 2026E: 14,597 million RMB (growth rate: 10.7%) - 2027E: 16,162 million RMB (growth rate: 10.7%) [7] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 392 million RMB - 2024: 750 million RMB (growth rate: 91%) - 2025E: 954 million RMB (growth rate: 27%) - 2026E: 1,055 million RMB (growth rate: 11%) - 2027E: 1,247 million RMB (growth rate: 18%) [7] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be: - 2025E: 9.3x - 2026E: 8.4x - 2027E: 7.1x [8]