Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the economy is experiencing a softening labor market, with delays in official jobs and inflation data due to the government shutdown [1][2]. Labor Market Conditions - Despite a low unemployment rate through August, payroll gains have significantly slowed, attributed to a decline in labor force growth from lower immigration and participation [3]. - Available evidence suggests that layoffs and hiring remain low, with both households' perceptions of job availability and firms' perceptions of hiring difficulty showing downward trends [3].

高盛：美联储有望在秋季重启宽松周期 金十数据7月31日讯，高盛资管公共投资首席投资官Ashish Shah表示，正如预期那样，沃勒与鲍曼两位 美联储理事成为鸽派异见者，而FOMC多数成员更倾向观望夏季通胀走势。未来两个月数据至关重要 ——若关税引发的通胀压力被证实只是暂时现象，我们认为美联储有望在秋季重启宽松周期。 ...