Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the economy is experiencing a softening labor market, with delays in official jobs and inflation data due to the government shutdown [1][2]. Labor Market Conditions - Despite a low unemployment rate through August, payroll gains have significantly slowed, attributed to a decline in labor force growth from lower immigration and participation [3]. - Available evidence suggests that layoffs and hiring remain low, with both households' perceptions of job availability and firms' perceptions of hiring difficulty showing downward trends [3].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Federal Reserve is likely to restart its easing cycle in the fall, contingent on upcoming inflation data [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Ashish Shah, Chief Investment Officer of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, notes that Fed governors Waller and Bowman have become dovish dissenters [1] - The majority of FOMC members prefer to observe the summer inflation trends before making further decisions [1] Group 2: Importance of Upcoming Data - The next two months of data are deemed crucial; if inflation pressures from tariffs are confirmed to be temporary, the Fed may proceed with easing [1]