纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价25日下跌6.5美元，收于每盎司3410.7美 元，跌幅为0.19%。 继上周五大幅拉涨之后，本周初黄金市场重回夏季平淡交易模式之中。目前市场基本消化了美联储主席 鲍威尔22日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会上的讲话。 鲍威尔在其主旨演讲中暗示，美联储最早将于9月政策会议上降息。鲍威尔同时指出，美国经济给美联 储官员带来了"挑战性局面"。美联储正在努力应对通胀率仍然高于2%的目标且仍在上升的事实，以及 劳动力市场出现疲软迹象。其他美联储决策者也对降息是否正确存在分歧。 此外，当天美元指数反弹走高，也给金价带来压力。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨 0.73%，在汇市尾市收于98.430。 不过，市场分析人士表示，美元持续疲软将继续提振金价。更重要的是，美国政府对央行的干预以及政 策失误的可能性可能是市场更大的担忧，这将对利率、美元和黄金产生影响。基于此，尽管全球不确定 性有所缓解且交易流向发生变化，但市场分析人士认为金价仍受到良好支撑，下行风险仍然有限。 只不过从技术上看，金价现在难以摆脱盘整，上方3400美元整数关口仍在近期构成明 ...

《华尔街日报》著名记者、素有"美联储传声筒"、"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos报道称，美联储主席鲍威尔周五为最早于下月会议降息打开了大 门，他表示就业市场可能出现更剧烈放缓的前景，或能减轻对关税引发成本上涨推高通胀的担忧。 今年以来，鲍威尔及其同事一直维持利率不变，理由是劳动力市场稳健，且大幅加征关税导致的通胀前景存在不确定性。但在周五怀俄明州一场备受瞩目的 会议演讲中，鲍威尔暗示经济前景正朝支持重启降息的方向转变。 "风险平衡似乎正在发生变化，"鲍威尔在准备好的讲稿中表示。尽管劳动力市场看似稳定，但"这种平衡颇具特殊性——它源于劳动力供需两端的显著放 缓"。 此前，美国总统特朗普及其高级顾问对美联储施加了异常强烈的压力，要求其大幅降息。 不过，鲍威尔的言论通过强调对通胀的担忧，缓和了市场对美联储将连续激进降息的预期。通胀已连续四年多高于美联储2%的目标。 鲍威尔表示，关税对消费价格的影响"现已清晰可见"，且预计未来几个月将持续累积。美联储面临的问题是，这些价格上涨是否会"显著增加持续性通胀风 险"。 此外，鲍威尔首次对"关税导致商品价格上涨的影响相对短暂"这一基准预测表现出更大信心。他警告 ...

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔即将发表可能是他迄今为止最重要的讲话——就在几天前，他的一位同事因涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈而 受到起诉威胁。 每年，美联储主席都会在堪萨斯城联邦储备银行于怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔为世界各国央行行长举办的年度经济研讨会上发表 备受期待的演讲。这场演讲旨在让投资者了解未来几个月的货币政策走向。 但今年的讲话背景截然不同。几个月来，美联储一直遭受着唐纳德·特朗普总统前所未有的全面攻击，他不仅对鲍威尔进行 了一系列人身攻击，并扬言要解雇他，现在还试图罢免前总统乔·拜登任命的美联储理事丽莎·库克。总统的不满源于美联 储今年未能降低借贷成本。 此次演讲可以说是鲍威尔的最后一场演讲，他的主席任期将于 2026 年 5 月结束。财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent） 已牵头寻找鲍威尔的继任者，总统可能很快就会宣布他的人选，也就是鲍威尔任期结束前几个月。两位现任美联储理事 ——也就是与鲍威尔分道扬镳的两位——正在被考虑担任主席，这凸显了美联储内部罕见的分歧。 利率情况如何？ 自去年 12 月以来，美联储官员一直维持利率不变 ，等待观察特朗普的大范围关税措施对价格产生何种影响，然后再恢复 降息，这可能会刺 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate increasing concerns among officials regarding economic slowdown, particularly in the second half of the year [1] Economic Activity - Several participants in the meeting expressed expectations that economic activity growth will remain sluggish in the latter half of the year [1] Consumer Spending - Observations were made regarding the household sector, noting that the slowdown in real income growth may be suppressing consumer spending growth [1] Labor Market - The concerns about economic slowdown, particularly due to a weak labor market, may have intensified for some officials following the downward revision of job growth estimates by 258,000 for May and June [1]

接下来，市场焦点将转向周五将公布的零售销售月率。有恐怖数据之称的消费者支出晴雨表将成为外界 评估美股经济韧性的重要参考，华尔街预计，7月零售月率环比上升0.5%，较6月回落0.1个百分点，这 可能将成为劳动力市场环境变化的缩影。数据不及预期或进一步加剧外界对美国经济动能的担忧，加大 货币政策转向压力。 美联储主席候选范围扩大 美联储观察工具显示，9月降息的可能性达100%。 事实上，在最新非农报告公布后，降息概率就开始水涨船高。机构已经逐步调整对美联储政策的判断， 包括摩根大通、高盛在内的大行均将美联储今年首次降息时间窗口提前至9月。 当地时间周三，随着市场进一步消化7月通胀数据，利率市场定价完全消化了美联储下月降息的预期。 美国财政部长贝森特向媒体表示，鉴于就业数据疲软，他认为美联储届时有可能大幅降息50个基点，而 不是传统的25个基点。 贝森特当天向媒体表示，美联储去年9月以对就业市场疲软的担忧为理由进行了更大幅度的降息，这一 次也会如此。他的论点源于美国劳工统计局最近发布的就业报告，与5月和6月的初步估计相比，最新数 据下修了超过25万人。"如果在5月和6月看到这些数字，我怀疑我们可能会在6月和7月降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's economists predict that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in September due to a weak labor market and reduced inflation risks [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Interest Rate Predictions - Nomura forecasts a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, followed by additional cuts in December and March of the following year [1] - The median analyst expectation is also a 25 basis point cut within the next three months, indicating a consensus on the direction of monetary policy [1] - Divergence in Economic Analysis - There is a divergence among economists regarding the timing of the rate cuts, with some previously expecting the Fed to hold off on easing until later in the year [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent weak labor market data has strengthened Bowman’s support for multiple interest rate cuts this year, suggesting that a rate cut in September would help avoid unnecessary deterioration in labor market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Labor Market Concerns - Bowman emphasizes the need for three interest rate cuts this year due to signs of weakness in the labor market, with July data showing only 73,000 new jobs added, significantly below expectations, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months [5] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating further labor market concerns [5] Group 2: Monetary Policy Stance - Bowman has shifted from supporting a stable interest rate policy earlier this year to advocating for rate cuts, having voted against maintaining rates in July alongside fellow board member Waller [4][5] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates unchanged throughout the year, but Bowman’s recent statements indicate a more dovish stance [3][4] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Bowman reiterated her view that tariff-induced price increases are unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation, suggesting that confidence in the absence of sustained inflationary pressure from tariffs is growing [2][5] - She believes that the risks to price stability are diminishing as the outlook on tariffs and inflation becomes clearer [2][5]

来源：商业周刊 美联储官员Michelle Bowman8月9日发布了两条重要消息。其一，她支持今年降息三次。其二，她将于 10月9日主持社区银行会议。 继数据显示劳动力市场急剧降温后，旧金山联储行长Mary Daly、明尼阿波利斯联储行长Neel Kashkari 和美联储理事Lisa Cook均表达了担忧。 美国劳工统计局报告显示，7月非农就业人数增加7.3万人，此前两个月的数据被大幅下修了近26万人。 失业率从6月的4.1%上升至4.2%。 社区银行会议 负责银行监管的Bowman表示，10月9日的社区银行会议将探讨针对这些银行资本框架的潜在改革方 案。她此前曾对社区银行的竞争格局表示担忧。长期以来，社区银行的市场份额一直在被规模更大的银 行蚕食。 "社区银行是银行和金融体系的基石，为当地社区及其客户提供支持，"Bowman在科罗拉多州斯普林斯 堪萨斯州银行家协会的演讲中表示，"这些银行常常被忽视，极少有人关注长期存在和新兴的问题，以 及行业和消费者的担忧。" 她表示，此举"将有助于避免劳动力市场状况进一步不必要地恶化，并降低委员会在劳动力市场进一步 恶化时需要实施更大规模政策修正的可能性。" Bowm ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has shifted to a more dovish stance, supporting three interest rate cuts this year and urging the central bank to initiate a cut in September [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent weak labor market data has reinforced Bowman's view in favor of multiple rate cuts, suggesting that a September cut would help avoid unnecessary deterioration in labor market conditions [1] - In July, employers added only 73,000 jobs, which was below expectations, and previous months' job growth data was revised down by nearly 260,000 [2] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, indicating signs of labor market weakness [2] Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Bowman reiterated her belief that price increases driven by tariffs are unlikely to sustain upward pressure on inflation, suggesting that the risks to price stability have diminished [1][2] - Confidence is growing that tariffs will not have a lasting impact on inflation, which supports her argument for rate cuts [2] Group 3: Policy Shift - Bowman's shift in monetary policy stance is notable, as she previously supported maintaining interest rates but has now aligned with calls for a 25 basis point cut, marking a significant change in her position [1] - Her support for rate cuts comes after a rare dissenting vote alongside Governor Waller during the July Federal Reserve decision, highlighting a divergence in views among Fed officials [1]

来源：金融界AI电报 三位美联储政策制定参与者周三表达了对美国劳动力市场持续疲软的担忧，并暗示9月会议可能启动降 息。数据显示，美国7月仅新增7.3万个非农就业岗位，远低于市场预期。 ...