高盛集团经济学家预计美联储将在12月降息，使利率降至略高于3%的水平。该行首席经济学家Jan Hatzius警告称，美国经济放缓的幅度可能超出预期，所以需要美联储更多的降息。他表示，尽管9月非 农报告显示就业市场新增了11.9万个就业岗位，但不断增加的裁员表明劳动力市场的疲软可能正在固 化，从而限制了经济温和增长的影响力。 来源：滚动播报 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 尽管美联储政策制定者在12月会议前出现严重分歧，但渣打银行表示，这不大可能阻止美联储继续降 息，并警告就业市场预期的疲软将继续主导货币政策走向。 "我们坚持认为FOMC将在12月降息，主要因为我们认为9-11月的就业数据很可能会非常疲软，"渣打银 行全球G10外汇研究和北美宏观策略主管史蒂夫·英格兰德（Steve Englander）在最近的一份报告中表 示。"这应该足以促使美联储中间派倒向降息阵营。" 在英格兰德看来，分歧的根本原因不在于对经济数据的不同解读——这些"很可能会被即将到来的数据 解决"，而在于政策制定者"对政策应如何应对高于目标的通胀和低于目标的劳动力市场结果有不同评 估"。 最强硬的鹰派声音包括堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·R·施密德（Jeffrey R. Schmid）、波士顿联储主席苏珊 ·M·柯林斯（Susan M. Collins）和圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·G·穆萨莱姆（Alberto G. Musalem）。 英格兰德补充说，他们希望"避免可能难以逆转的提前降息"，这与美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）的鸽派立 ...

前美联储副主席Lael Brainard（布雷纳德）：美联储应该为了防止劳动力市场进一步疲软而谨慎行事， 下个月应再次降息。 ...

政府停摆加剧了这种分歧，因为这导致了能够帮助调和此类分歧的就业和通胀报告暂停发布。这段数据 真空期让官员们可以各自引用那些能够强化其早前评估的民间调查或坊间传闻。 来源：金十数据 「美联储传声筒」Nick Timiraos 最新撰文指出，在美联储主席鲍威尔近八年的任期内，央行内部一场 几乎没有先例的分歧正在浮现，这给未来的降息之路蒙上了一层阴影。 官员们内部产生了裂痕，争论的焦点在于，究竟是持续的通胀还是疲软的劳动力市场构成了更大的威 胁。即便官方经济数据恢复发布，也未必能弥合这些分歧。 尽管投资者普遍认为美联储在下次会议上降息的可能性仍然较大，但这场内部分裂已经让不到两个月前 还看似可行的计划变得复杂起来。 鹰鸽争辩 当政策制定者们在 9 月份同意降息 25 个基点时，19 名官员中有 10 人（勉强过半）预计 10 月和 12 月 还会继续降息。连续三次会议降息的节奏，将与鲍威尔去年和 2019 年的降息步伐相呼应。 但一群鹰派官员对进一步降息的必要性提出了质疑。在 10 月底官员们再次降息，将利率降至目前的 3.75% 至 4% 区间后，他们的抵制立场变得更加强硬。根据公开评论和近期采访，关于 12 月 ...

美联储戴利：随着劳动力市场疲软，风险平衡已经发生变化。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices rebounded after experiencing the largest single-day drop in over a week, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid widespread market risk aversion [1] - As of the latest report, spot gold prices rose to approximately $3941.18 per ounce, while the dollar index remained stable after reaching its highest level since mid-May [2] - The Federal Reserve officials did not indicate support for further rate cuts in December, as they weigh the dual risks of inflation and a weak labor market [4] Group 1 - Gold prices have seen a cumulative increase of around 50% this year, despite a recent pullback following a historical high [1] - The recent price correction is attributed to concerns over high valuations and outflows from gold ETFs, with traders assessing whether the decline is nearing its end [1] - Factors contributing to the current price range of gold between $3800 and $4050 per ounce include uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cut outlook and concerns over Chinese retail demand for gold [1] Group 2 - The prices of silver remained stable, while palladium and platinum experienced declines [2] - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including St. Louis Fed President Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Mester, are expected to provide further insights into the Fed's stance [4]

Core Insights - Employment opportunities have reached their lowest level in over 4.5 years due to the ongoing government shutdown, as reported by Indeed [1] - The Job Postings Index fell to 101.9 as of October 24, marking a 0.5% decline from the start of the month and a 3.5% decrease from mid-August [2] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has not released its monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) due to the government shutdown, leaving economists to rely on alternative data [3] Employment Trends - The most recent JOLTS report indicated job openings totaled 7.23 million, unchanged from July but down 7% from January [4] - There has been a pullback in salary offerings, with year-over-year wage growth in Indeed postings decreasing from 3.4% in January to 2.5% in August [4] Federal Reserve Response - The Federal Open Market Committee recently voted 10-2 to lower the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point to a target range of 3.75%-4% due to concerns over a softening labor market [5] - Fed officials are closely monitoring real-time data, indicating a slowdown in hiring and a slight uptick in the unemployment rate over the summer [6] - Economists expect a decline of 60,000 jobs in October and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.5% based on the anticipated BLS report [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed that a further interest rate cut is appropriate, as there has been little change in the economic situation over the past six weeks, with private sector data indicating a weak labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The labor market continues to show signs of weakness, as reflected in private sector data [1] - There is uncertainty regarding tariffs and the potential impact of AI on productivity, which affects CEO hiring intentions [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - Waller emphasized the importance of cautious actions to avoid mistakes in monetary policy [1] - There has been no communication with President Trump regarding future discussions, leaving uncertainty about potential dialogues [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the economy is experiencing a softening labor market, with delays in official jobs and inflation data due to the government shutdown [1][2]. Labor Market Conditions - Despite a low unemployment rate through August, payroll gains have significantly slowed, attributed to a decline in labor force growth from lower immigration and participation [3]. - Available evidence suggests that layoffs and hiring remain low, with both households' perceptions of job availability and firms' perceptions of hiring difficulty showing downward trends [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in the remaining two policy meetings of 2025 to address a slowing labor market and weakening economic growth [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman anticipates two more rate cuts before the end of the year, with the current benchmark rate set between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking the first cut since December of last year by 25 basis points [1] - The futures market is betting on a 25 basis point cut in each of the upcoming meetings on October 28-29 and in the second week of December [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, prompting a consensus among Federal Reserve officials for further monetary easing [1] - Philadelphia Fed President Harker supports two additional 25 basis point cuts this year, emphasizing that current policies are still "slightly tight" and that further easing aligns with the latest economic forecasts [2] - Harker warns that the momentum in the U.S. labor market is diminishing, with third-quarter growth above trend but consumer spending increasingly reliant on high-income groups [2]