Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The January USDA report was bearish, causing a sharp decline in US corn prices. The report raised the corn production forecast to 17.021 billion bushels, reaching a record high. US corn yield was 186.5 bushels per acre, with increased area and high yield, leading to a 5% drop in US corn prices. Concerns about rising global supply continued to ferment, and the US corn quarterly inventory reached an all - time high [3]. - In the domestic market, as the Lunar New Year approached in January, the sales progress of damp corn in the production areas increased, causing the futures prices of near - month corn contracts to decline, and the far - month contracts also adjusted accordingly. As of January 29, the national weekly average corn price was 2,332 yuan/ton [4]. - The corn starch industry has been in continuous losses, with industry profits hovering around the break - even point, and the starch futures prices have been oscillating downward [10]. - After the New Year's Day, the pig price declined, and pig farming shifted from profit to loss. Pig - listed enterprises actively sold their pigs before the Spring Festival [12]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 0.1 - 0.7 Review - Wheat main - producing countries' production increased from a decrease. Sufficient global inventory overshadowed the market, and the expectation of a bumper wheat harvest in Argentina was continuously strengthened. The wheat price was at a 5 - year low. Factors affecting the wheat market in 2026 include the Fed's monetary policy, tariff policies and trade disputes, the progress of the Russia - Ukraine situation, the weather in wheat main - producing countries, and Russia's wheat production capacity and exports [5][6]. - The January USDA report was bearish for US corn. The carry - over inventory of US corn in the new year increased significantly, and the corn price fell to a 4 - month low and then oscillated upward. The US corn stock - to - use ratio increased, and the annual quote was at a low level. Factors affecting the US corn market in 2026 include the Fed's monetary policy, tariff policies and trade disputes, the weather in corn main - producing countries, and the US grain export sales situation [7]. - For DCE corn, the policy shifted from bullish to bearish. Near - month contracts first rose and then fell. Factors affecting the DCE corn market in 2026 include the impact of the macro - market and monetary policy on commodities, the corn production and sales patterns in main - producing countries such as the US and China, the role of China's import - restriction policy, the impact of the imported corn auction policy, and pig prices and feed deep - processing consumption [8]. - The corn starch industry has been in continuous losses at the beginning of the year, and the starch futures prices have been adjusted at a high level. Factors affecting the DCE corn starch market in 2026 include the impact of the macro - market and monetary policy on commodities, the impact of corn raw materials on starch quotes, the disturbance of starch by - product sales on starch quotes, and pig prices and feed deep - processing consumption [10]. - After the New Year's Day, the pig price declined, and the forward quote fell to a previous low. Factors affecting the DCE live pig market in 2026 include the impact of the macro - market and monetary policy on commodities, the impact of breeding losses on the industry scale, the impact of improved breeding efficiency on costs, and the impact of raw material price changes such as soybean meal and corn on pig prices [11]. - In 2025/2026, the wheat production in global main - producing countries recovered and increased. China's wheat inventory decreased, while the inventories of other main - producing countries increased. The global wheat production increase was greater than the consumption increase, and the carry - over inventory increased significantly. The wheat market in 2026 will continue to focus on geopolitics [13]. - The corn production in global main - producing countries increased. The inventories in South America and the EU decreased, and the carry - over inventory of new - season US corn increased significantly. The US corn production increased substantially, and the industry expects the soybean area to increase and the corn area to decrease in 2026 [14]. 1.0 - 1.10 Supply and Demand - After the USDA report, US corn led the decline, and wheat followed. The January report was bearish, and corn prices fell 5% on the report day. The low - price advantage of the US grain market gradually emerged, and the global grain supply was sufficient, with supply - side pressure continuing to affect the market [15][40]. - In 2025, the US corn area increased significantly, and the production reached a record high. Currently, the industry expects the soybean area to increase and the corn area to decrease in 2026 [21]. - In January, the USDA estimated the US corn yield to be 186.5 bushels per acre, and the US corn quarterly inventory reached an all - time high [27]. - In mid - January, bargain - hunting buyers entered the US corn market. Low - price corn promoted sales, and after the sales progress improved, the corn futures prices regained support [33]. - In 2025, China imported 2.65 million tons of corn from January to December. The monthly import volume of corn increased significantly from November to December. The industry expects that after the China - US talks, China's imports of grains from the US will resume and increase. In the second half of 2025, to stabilize corn prices, the China National Grain Reserves Corporation issued an announcement on the competitive sales of imported corn, increasing market supply. The 2024/2025 annual imports of substitutes such as sorghum, corn, and barley in China totaled about 20 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of nearly 40 million tons. In 2025/2026, China - US negotiations are expected to increase the imports of corn and sorghum, and the current industry generally expects the year - on - year increase in corn imports to be between 5 - 10 million tons, and the peak of the total increase in imports of substitutes such as sorghum, corn, and barley is expected to be 20 million tons [43]. - At the end of January, the wheat price in the main production areas was 2,525 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton from the previous month and 5.38% year - on - year. After the New Year's Day, a total of 800,000 tons of competitive wheat was put on the market, and 565,300 tons were traded. The wheat market was supported by multiple factors and showed a slightly strong and oscillating trend [45]. - Currently, the corn starch operating rate is 59.99%. After the starch price increased, the enterprise order - signing slowed down. The expected profit of starch processing in Shandong is 12 yuan/ton. The corn starch price remained firm, and the low - price supply tightened [47][49]. - At the end of January, the national corn sales progress was 60%. The March contract first rose and then fell, and the long - position funds left the market, causing the futures price to oscillate at a high level [54]. - The port inventory has been at a low level. As of January 23, the inventory in the northern ports was 3.097 million tons lower year - on - year, and the inventory data was bullish [62]. 2.1 - 2.4 Outlook - In the first quarter, attention should be paid to the China - US procurement plan. It is expected that the procurement scale of agricultural products such as sorghum and corn will resume and increase in 2026 [70]. - The main corn 2603 contract first rose and then fell. Before the Spring Festival, long - position funds left the market, and the far - month contract futures prices entered a tug - of - war stage [72]. - The average inventory of feed enterprises is 31.93 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.21%. The downstream stocking before the Spring Festival drove the futures and spot prices to rebound [75]. - The corn futures prices are in a positive arrangement. After the March contract hit the 2,300 mark, it fell back. The corn market faces a directional choice around the Spring Festival. The short - term trend is that funds will shift from the March contract to the May and July contracts, and the far - month contracts face a directional choice. In the long term, the expectation of a bumper harvest, combined with increased imports and substitutes, will cause the corn futures prices to return to the oscillating range, and downstream procurement will determine the direction. The recommended operation is to stop profit on accumulated options and then wait and see [82]. Policy - The industry expects that the China - US negotiations in 2026 will progress smoothly, and China will increase the imports of grains such as sorghum and corn while importing soybeans [83]. - The wheat minimum purchase price competitive trading had a 50% transaction rate in the first week, and 200,000 tons were sold again on January 14, with a market transaction rate of 80.49% [83]. - On January 7, the Inner Mongolia Branch of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation conducted a competitive sales. It put 95,400 tons on the market, with an average premium of 62 yuan/ton. The imported corn was sold at a premium, and the bullish sentiment was transmitted to the futures market [83]. - According to customs data, in December 2025, the import volume of corn (885811) starch was 180,733 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.95% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.94%. The import amount was 358,000 US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 21.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%. From January to December, the total import volume of corn (885811) starch was 5,248,226 tons, a year - on - year increase of 97.28%, and the total import amount was 6.5695 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. In December 2025, the export volume of corn (885811) starch was 16,739,626 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% and a year - on - year increase of 75.60%. The export amount was 6.4769 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.23%. From January to December, the total export volume of corn (885811) starch was 213,444,099 tons, a year - on - year increase of 967.96%, and the total export amount was 81.7879 million US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 797.93% [83]. - After the New Year's Day, a total of 800,000 tons of competitive wheat was put on the market (200,000 tons per week for four weeks), and 565,300 tons were traded. The transaction rates of the four times were 50%, 80.49%, 71.64%, and 77.55% respectively [83].