养老金精算平衡

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戴相龙:中国养老金投资回报高于发达国家,社保基金六成收益来自股票
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-04-25 05:24
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the need for expanding the scale and improving the investment returns of China's pension system in response to the rapidly aging population [1][2][3] Group 1: Pension System Structure - China has established a "one fund, three pillars" pension system, which includes the National Social Security Fund, urban employee basic pension insurance, enterprise annuities, and personal pensions [2][3] - As of the end of 2024, the total balance of the "one fund, three pillars" pension system is projected to reach 19.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 13.1% of the national GDP [2] Group 2: Growth Projections - The balance of the "one fund, three pillars" pension system has grown at an average annual rate of 13.4% from 2013 to 2024, with a conservative estimate suggesting it could reach 66 trillion yuan by 2035 [3] - If China's economic growth remains around 5% over the next five years, the pension system's share of GDP could rise to 28% by 2035 [3] Group 3: Investment Returns - China's pension investment return rates are relatively high, with the National Social Security Fund achieving an average annual investment return rate of 7.36% from 2000 to 2023 [7] - The average return rate for urban employee basic pension insurance is 5.06%, while enterprise annuities have a return rate of 6.26% [7][8] Group 4: Recommendations for Improvement - To enhance the pension system, it is recommended to increase the scale of the National Social Security Fund and improve the national coordination of urban employee basic pension insurance [3][4] - Suggestions include allowing enterprises that do not participate in basic pensions to establish enterprise annuities and modifying regulations to ease the burden on employers and employees [4][5] - The development of the third pillar of pension insurance is crucial, with proposals for significant tax exemptions to encourage participation [6][8]