责任编辑：王馨茹 专题：中国社会科学院社会保障论坛暨《中国养老金发展报告2025》发布式 专题：中国社会科学院社会保障论坛暨《中国养老金发展报告2025》发布式 12月6日金融一线消息，中国社会科学院社会保障论坛暨《中国养老金发展报告2025》发布会今日召 开，光大银行深圳分行副行长宋纲出席并发言。 宋纲用通俗比喻阐释了养老金投资的ALM、LDI两大核心工具。宋纲指出，ALM 是顶层战略，LDI 是 具体执行路径。 宋纲解释了中国与西方投资的理念，中国在未富先老的这种人口结构下，城市老龄化人口结构差异是政 府主导的社会保障体系和市场主导的社会保障体系的差异，所以中国的保守稳健模式适应未富先老是现 阶段的国情选择。 宋纲强调，养老金投资方法最关键的是 "可描述、可量化、可评估、可重复" ，形成机构可传承的标准 化方法。 "因为投资各异，大家有各自的方式方法，如何能做到这四点是适合养老金投资的，剩下的就是标准性 安排。"宋纲说。 "因为投资各异，大家有各自的方式方法，如何能做到这四点是适合养老金投资的，剩下的就是标准性 安排。"宋纲说。 责任编辑：王馨茹 12月6日金融一线消息，中国社会科学院社会保障论坛暨《中国 ...

昨天的成交量大幅下行至1.61万亿。因为临近年末，下周三美联储的议息会议非常有可能讨论利率问 题，甚至可能会降息，降息的概率在增加。那么，我们是否渐渐步入了2026年展望和研究的阶段呢？我 认为有以下几点需要考虑： 第二，一般人都担心年终结算的压力。但11月24日市场跌至3816点后，年终结算压力就有可能得到部分 释放。 第三，我们要未雨绸缪，展望明年2026年，养老金应该是一个重要的研究方向，险资以及今年公募和私 募基金的赚钱效应，新发基金的动向也值得我们高度重视和研究。但也不排除从4034点以来，包括大股 东的减持、融资等行为，可能会使供应量逐渐增加。这种互相的拉锯会使从3800点到4034点的消化时间 可能会延长，我们不要太过焦急。 从时间维度看，我们在3000点附近反复夯实了17年，而在4000点附近也需要一些时间来消化。从筹码消 化的维度看，目前的换手率是130%。我们要争取更多的换手。 更为重要的是，4000点的水平比3000点高了1000点，比2689点高了大约1300点。这种股价结构的变化给 2026年股票市场带来了新的挑战，即起点位置比2025年高了许多，投资难度和挑战也相应增加。这更加 突 ...

Core Insights - Global public debt is projected to exceed $111 trillion by December 2025, with U.S. federal debt reaching $38 trillion, highlighting the unsustainable nature of current debt levels [1] - Pensions are increasingly invested in government bonds, creating a cycle where citizens are both borrowers and lenders, with their retirement funds tied to government debt [3][4] - The structure of China's national debt is predominantly held by domestic banks and the central bank, with foreign investors holding only 2.4%, contrasting sharply with the U.S. where foreign investors hold 30% [4] Debt and Interest Payments - The U.S. government is expected to pay $1 trillion in debt interest in the 2025 fiscal year, which will escalate to $13.8 trillion over the next decade, significantly impacting taxpayers [8] - Interest payments are projected to consume 3.3% of GDP by 2025, surpassing defense spending, indicating a critical financial imbalance [8] - China's debt interest pressure is manageable, but local government debt poses structural risks, with some counties spending 40% of their revenue on interest payments [11] Pension Fund Performance - The national social security fund's investment portfolio includes 40% in equity funds and over 20% in government bonds, exposing pensions to interest rate fluctuations [6] - A significant drop in bond prices due to rising interest rates could lead to substantial losses in pension funds, affecting retirees' financial stability [6][13] - Historical data indicates that a 1% decline in average returns over the next decade could reduce pension replacement rates significantly, impacting retirees' income [13] Systemic Risks and Future Adjustments - Systemic risks are increasing due to political gridlock over debt ceilings in the U.S., high debt levels in Japan, and slow progress in addressing local government debt in China [11] - The potential for a debt crisis is heightened by interconnected global financial markets, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis [11] - Future adjustments to the debt system may manifest as gradual inflation or sudden welfare cuts, impacting the purchasing power of pensions [14] Strategies for Individuals - Individuals are advised to build "anti-debt asset portfolios" by investing in gold and REITs, which typically have a negative correlation with government bonds [15] - Increasing the proportion of non-monetary assets in investment portfolios can help mitigate risks associated with interest rate fluctuations [15] - Developing skills in recession-resistant sectors can provide more stable income during economic downturns, as evidenced by lower unemployment rates in certain professions during past crises [15]

Core Viewpoint - The role of pensions is undergoing a historic reconstruction as the aging population in China increases, with those aged 65 and above reaching 15.6% of the population and expected to rise to 26% by 2050, creating pressure for value preservation and growth of pension funds [1][3] Group 1: Pension Investment Strategy - Pensions are designed for long-term stability and should not act as short-term speculators; they must support the real economy and optimize resource allocation across economic cycles [3][4] - The rapid development of new technologies provides opportunities for pension investments, which should focus on creating suitable investment products to enhance returns [4][6] - Pensions should direct funds towards strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, new energy, and biomedicine, which require long-term capital support [3][8] Group 2: Long-term Investment Mechanisms - A long-term assessment mechanism is necessary for pensions to align financial supply with technological demand, ensuring they act as a capital engine for technological progress while sharing in the returns from innovation [6][7] - The valuation system for pensions needs to shift from traditional financial capital to strategic operational value, particularly in recognizing and pricing intangible assets like data and algorithms [6][7] - Pensions should transition from focusing on short-term volatility to a comprehensive dynamic risk management approach that emphasizes long-term value realization [7] Group 3: Market Ecosystem Support - The development of financial instruments that cater to long-term capital needs, such as long-term bonds and infrastructure REITs, is essential for matching pension durations [7] - Enhancing transparency and information disclosure standards for technology companies will improve asset pricing and market conditions for pension investments [7] - A performance-based incentive mechanism should be established to encourage asset management institutions to engage in long-term investments, creating a favorable market environment for pensions [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The intersection of the aging population and technological revolution is leading to a historic redefinition of the role of pensions, emphasizing the need for long-term investment strategies to support innovation and economic development [1][3]. Group 1: Aging Population and Pension Pressure - The proportion of the population aged 65 and above in China has reached 15.6% and is expected to rise to 26% by 2050, increasing the pressure on pensions to maintain and grow value [1]. - The acceleration of the aging process in China necessitates a focus on the preservation and appreciation of pension funds [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities in Technology - Pensions are designed for long-term stability and should not engage in short-term speculative investments; instead, they should act as long-term investors that support the real economy [3]. - The current technological revolution, including advancements in artificial intelligence, renewable energy, and biomedicine, requires substantial long-term capital investment, creating a significant opportunity for pension funds [3][4]. Group 3: Financial Innovation and Technology - The rapid development of new technologies has revitalized capital markets and provided substantial returns for pension investments, highlighting the need for pension funds to embrace new opportunities [4]. - Financial innovation is essential to match the pace of technological advancements, with pensions needing to create suitable investment products that enhance their portfolios and returns [4][5]. Group 4: Long-term Assessment Mechanisms - A key challenge for pension management is to align financial supply with technological demand while ensuring risk and return characteristics are met [5]. - There is a need to transition from traditional financial valuation methods to a focus on operational value, particularly as intangible assets become more central to production [6]. Group 5: Cultivating Patient Capital - To transform pensions into patient capital, there must be a shift in investment philosophy and systemic support from the market [7]. - Developing long-term financial instruments and improving transparency in technology companies are crucial for enhancing the investment environment for pensions [7]. - Pension funds should be directed towards key sectors such as technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, and green development to create a virtuous cycle of economic growth and pension value preservation [7].

Core Insights - The forum emphasized the importance of pension funds as a significant capital source for the real economy, focusing on aligning financial supply with technological demand [1][2] Group 1: Valuation System Reconstruction - The traditional financial valuation system relies on clear asset ownership and stable value changes, but the rise of intangible assets like data and algorithms necessitates a restructured valuation approach [1] - Pension funds can leverage their scale to drive the reconstruction of the valuation system, transforming intangible rights into tradable and traceable financial assets [1] Group 2: Time Dimension Extension - There is a need to shift from cyclical capital to patient capital that spans across cycles, recognizing the nonlinear growth paths of technology companies which require significant upfront investment and long wait times for returns [2] - Establishing a long-term investment value curve and extending investment horizons are essential for pension funds to adapt to this new capital paradigm [2] Group 3: Risk Assessment Evolution - The focus of risk management should transition from short-term price volatility to long-term value realization, ensuring that pension funds can outperform inflation and capitalize on growth opportunities [2] - A comprehensive dynamic risk management system that spans the entire asset lifecycle is necessary for effective risk assessment [2] Group 4: Embracing New Technologies - The rapid development of new technologies presents both challenges and opportunities for pension fund investments, which can yield substantial returns [2] - Pension funds should create suitable investment products for technological innovation and enhance their investment portfolios to improve returns [2] - By leveraging their patient capital advantage, pension funds can support new technologies and industries, contributing to China's modernization efforts [2]

Core Insights - The pension fund's role is to become a capital engine for technological progress while sharing the excess returns from technological innovation, which is a key challenge for pension finance [1] - The rapid iteration of new technologies has injected vitality into the capital market and provided substantial returns for pension investments [1] - Pension funds should actively focus on new technologies and embrace new opportunities to enhance investment returns and support new industries [1] Investment Strategy - Pension funds need to create suitable investment products for technological innovation to enrich their investment portfolios [1] - The transition from cyclical capital to cross-cyclical patient capital is essential, requiring a long-term investment value curve and extended investment horizons [2] - The transformation of patience as a time factor into a tradable and allocatable production factor is crucial for supporting national productivity development [2] Risk Management - A shift from variance management focused on price volatility to dynamic risk control covering the entire process is necessary [2] - Establishing a comprehensive dynamic risk management system throughout asset allocation, investment execution, and post-investment management is required for long-term value realization [2]

Core Insights - The relationship between finance and pensions is tightly interconnected, and there are multiple perspectives to consider for pension reform, including communication and coordination among different subsystems [1] - Current discussions on pension levels suggest that as GDP per capita increases, pension benefits should also rise, while others emphasize the importance of funding sources for sustainable pension design [1] - Investment potential exists in pension systems through pre-funding accumulation, despite global financial market volatility [1] - The first pillar of China's pension system is not merely a universal safety net; it is closely linked to contribution years and bases, with a minimum contribution period extended from 15 to 20 years [1] Funding and Consumption - There is support for the idea of a mandatory second pillar in the pension system, drawing parallels to Hong Kong's "Mandatory Provident Fund" introduced in the 1990s [2] - The first pillar is crucial for covering a large population and is linked to current consumer spending initiatives, raising the question of funding sources for potential pension benefit increases [2] Impact of AI - Current discussions suggest that AI may exacerbate income distribution disparities rather than alleviate them, highlighting the need for effective mechanisms to allocate the efficiency gains from AI to the pension system [2]

Core Insights - Pension funds have increased their presence in the secondary market, appearing in the top ten circulating shareholders of 23 stocks by the end of Q3, with 15 new entries and 4 increased holdings [1][2] - The total shareholding amount of pension funds in these stocks is 174 million shares, with a total market value of 6.035 billion yuan [1] - The most significant holdings are in Haiyou Development and Blue Sky Technology, with pension funds holding 65.3843 million shares and 20.7810 million shares respectively [1][2] Summary by Category Shareholding Details - Pension funds are the fourth and ninth largest shareholders in Haiyou Development, holding a combined total of 65.3843 million shares [1] - Blue Sky Technology has the highest shareholding ratio among pension fund holdings, with a 6.78% stake [1][2] - Other notable holdings include Guoyao Shares and Chunfeng Power, with shareholding ratios of 3.67% and 5.21% respectively [1][2] Performance and Trends - Among the stocks held by pension funds, 16 companies reported net profit growth in their Q3 reports, with the highest growth seen in Zhidema, which achieved a net profit of 13.4486 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 253.49% [2] - The longest-held stock by pension funds is Blue Sky Technology, which has appeared in the top ten shareholders for 14 consecutive reporting periods [2] Sector Distribution - The stocks held by pension funds are primarily distributed across the main board (9 stocks), the Sci-Tech Innovation Board (3 stocks), and the Growth Enterprise Market (11 stocks) [2] - The holdings are concentrated in the machinery equipment and automotive sectors, with 3 stocks each in these industries [2]

Core Insights - The "Golden Bull Insurance Investment Award" was announced at the "Long Money, Long Investment, Long Green" conference, highlighting outstanding insurance institutions and asset management products in the industry [1] - Huatai Asset Management has won the "Golden Bull Insurance Asset Management Company Award" and multiple product awards, showcasing its consistent performance over five years [1] Industry Overview - The insurance asset management industry is increasingly significant, with 35 companies operating in China and a growing overall management scale [2] - Huatai Asset, established in 2005, has evolved from a single insurance fund management entity to a comprehensive asset management platform, managing assets worth 946 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025 [2] Competitive Strategy - Huatai Asset leads the industry in expanding third-party business, with over 90% of its managed assets coming from third-party entrusted funds, marking it as one of the top companies in this regard [3] - The company focuses on long-term fund management and quality asset provision, emphasizing professional talent and team building to enhance its core competitiveness [4] Investment and Banking Services - Huatai Asset has a dual focus on investment and banking services, aiming to provide stable long-term returns through various business areas, including entrusted investments and pension fund management [4] - The company has been a pioneer in the non-standard debt market since 2007, consistently ranking high in registered scale for asset securitization products [5] Pension Investment Strategy - As a long-term institutional investor, Huatai Asset has developed a strong advantage in pension fund management, offering a wide range of products and strategies [7] - The company integrates ESG factors into its investment decisions, actively seeking opportunities in environmentally friendly sectors [7] Future Outlook - Huatai Asset plans to align with national strategic deployments, enhancing its core competencies and leveraging the long-term investment advantages of insurance funds to support the real economy and capital market development [8]