内容扩圈与流量变现
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财通证券:首予哔哩哔哩-W“增持”评级 预计将迎来内容扩圈与流量变现双击
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 02:33
Core Viewpoint - Bilibili (09626) is a leading online video and content community platform in China, expanding from ACG content to a comprehensive community covering various fields, with a projected MAU of 376 million by Q3 2025, reflecting an 8% YoY growth [1] Group 1: User Engagement and Monetization - The company has a high user retention rate, with a 12-month retention rate for official members reaching 80% [1] - The gaming business, rooted in its strong ACG background, is diversifying into a full-category layout, with the upcoming game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" expected to achieve significant revenue [1] - Value-added services are steadily growing, primarily driven by premium membership subscriptions [1] - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 23% YoY to 2.57 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a focus on brand, performance, and native advertising [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Growth Drivers - The overall revenue growth is recovering, driven by the gaming business, with a 21.62% YoY growth rate in H1 2025 [2] - The company's gross margin has been steadily improving since 2022, supported by enhanced commercialization efficiency and strict cost control [2] - The net profit turned positive in H1 2025, reaching 210 million yuan, with adjusted net profit at 920 million yuan [2] Group 3: Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 30.41 billion, 32.44 billion, and 35.19 billion yuan, reflecting YoY growth rates of 13.3%, 6.7%, and 8.5% respectively [1] - Adjusted net profits for the same period are projected to be 2.14 billion, 3.15 billion, and 4.30 billion yuan [1] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to be 33.8, 22.9, and 16.8 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [1]