中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，预计哔哩哔哩-W(09626)25-27年实现总收入299.60/326.20/353.21亿 元，同比+12%/+9%/+8%;实现经调整净利润为22.57/32.56/43.25亿元，26/27年同比+44%/+33%。可比公 司25年动态PE平均数为26x。公司商业化处于提速期，此外，AI有望进一步提升内容创作效率以及丰富 商业化手段，对公司广告和游戏业务影响深刻，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 (2)广告：三大产品重塑营销路径，优质内容助推流量增长。B站广告可分为三大打法：一是花火商单 +起飞推广的模式;二是以oCPX的效果广告;三是品牌广告。2024年/2025年上半年，哔哩哔哩广告业务收 入分别同增27.7%/20%至82/44亿元。3Q25，哔哩哔哩DAU达1.17亿人，同增9%，DAU占MAU的比达 31%;日均使用时长达112min，同增6%。同时，目前B站对于广告商业化仍旧保持克制，目前其广告加 载率仅5—8%，商业化仍旧有较大空间。 (3)游戏：老游长线运营，新游贡献增量。在《三国：谋定天下》的领跑下，《FGO》《碧蓝航线》等 长青二游也为B站游戏业务提 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhongtai Securities projects Bilibili (09626) to achieve total revenue of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of +12%, +9%, and +8% respectively, with adjusted net profit expected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.32 billion yuan, showing significant growth of +44% and +33% in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Bilibili is a leading video community in China, driven by a unique operational model and has become a significant player in the IP derivative market, operating nearly 200 self-owned and authorized IPs by the end of 2024 [2] - The company has developed an "IP incubation and content empowerment" model, leveraging its high-engagement community and content ecosystem, and has established a brand for derivative products since 2020 [2] Group 2: Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing ad placements, with the launch of the "Peanut" AIGC tool expected to improve content quality and increase traffic [3] - Bilibili's advertising revenue is projected to grow by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, reaching 8.2 billion and 4.4 billion yuan respectively, with a daily active user (DAU) count of 117 million in Q3 2025, reflecting a 9% year-on-year increase [4] - The gaming segment is benefiting from both long-term operations of existing games and new game launches, with gaming revenue reaching 3.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 68% year-on-year increase [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading IP ecosystem platform in China, leveraging content and community operations to drive growth. It has developed nearly 200 IPs and is enhancing its commercial value through a unique product development model [6][11]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 29.96 billion, 32.62 billion, and 35.32 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12%, 9%, and 8% respectively. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 2.26 billion, 3.26 billion, and 4.33 billion yuan, with significant growth in the latter two years [44][43]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 413.76 million shares, with a market price of HKD 190.80, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately HKD 78.95 billion [1]. - The company has undergone significant development since its inception in 2009, evolving from a community platform to a comprehensive video community with a focus on IP development and commercialization [10][11]. Business Highlights - AI marketing is enhancing content production and optimizing advertising efficiency, with the introduction of the "Peanut AI" tool expected to significantly improve content creation and advertising effectiveness [25][27]. - The advertising business is projected to grow substantially, with revenues expected to increase by 27.7% and 20% in 2024 and the first half of 2025, respectively [29][31]. - The gaming segment is also showing strong performance, with revenues from established games and new releases contributing to overall growth. The game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" has been a key driver of revenue [37][34]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to see a steady increase in revenue and profitability, with adjusted net profits turning positive by 2025. The projected P/E ratio for 2025 is 32.2, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [41][44]. - The financial analysis indicates a significant improvement in gross margins, expected to reach 39.6% by 2027, driven by operational efficiencies and revenue growth [43][20].

美术指导刘大伟：中戏美术设计专业出身，作为美术指导的《少林问道》《冰雨火》《以法之名》等影 视作品备受业界认可，构建真实且富有张力的场景空间。 近年来，随着互动影游赛道逐渐升温，行业开始探索更多"影+游"深度融合的可能性。在这一背景下， 一部名为《猎诈》的互动影游正以其鲜明的题材创新、强大的制作阵容与创新联动的商业模式引发行业 关注。 《猎诈》的背后是长乎尔传媒在反诈题材上的持续深耕。长乎尔此前已成功打造"反诈系列"多部作品， 其中《反诈风暴》播出分账票房超1200万，成为市场上兼具口碑与商业表现的主旋律中剧标杆。长乎尔 自2021年起连续四年与公安系统合作，是行业唯一持续研发并输出反诈题材爆款的团队，曾获国家广电 总局年度网络视听精品节目等多项荣誉。 作为《猎诈》游戏的研发方，华娱游戏展现了其在游戏领域的深厚积累与爆发力。华娱此前推出的三国 题材SLG《三国：谋定天下》一上线即冲入iOS畅销榜Top 3，并多次登顶畅销榜前二，首月流水突破8 亿，全年流水超25亿，被誉为"SLG游戏圈新的里程碑"。 为了积极探索新赛道，长乎尔传媒与华娱游戏共同成立娱尔同游公司，正式进军影游联动赛道。与市场 上常见的"美女互动 ...

财通证券（601108）发布研报称，哔哩哔哩-W(09626)是中国领先的在线视频与内容社区平台，自2009 年以ACG内容起家，逐步拓展至泛知识、泛生活等多元领域的综合性社区。公司基于PUGV+OGV+直 播的内容生态不断推动用户群体破圈，并通过社区互动文化与品牌活动留存用户，截至3Q2025，MAU 达到3.76亿(YoY+8%)，正式会员第12个月的留存率达到80%。预计2025-2027年公司收入分别为 304.1/324.4/351.9亿元(YoY+13.3%/6.7%/8.5%)，经调整净利润分别为21.4/31.5/43.0亿元，现价对应PE为 33.8/22.9/16.8x。首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 财通证券主要观点如下： 风险提示：内容平台监管持续趋严的风险、内容行业竞争加剧与商业化平衡的风险、业务依赖爆款与增 长可持续性的风险。 1)游戏业务始于其浓厚的二次元基因，目前正迈向多元化全品类布局，2024年6月发布的《三国：谋定 天下》作为公司首款非二次元SLG产品大获成功，成为公司历史上最快达到10亿元流水的游戏，推动游 戏收入强势反弹;2)增值业务稳定增长，主要由大会员订阅驱动;3)广 ...

2024年，游戏和广告业务成为增长的主要驱动力，公司营收高速增长趋势修复，2025年H1公司实现 21.62%的同比增长率。得益于商业化效率提升和严格的费用控制，公司毛利率自2022年稳步提升，费 用率亦同比下滑，推动净利润于1H2025转正至2.1亿元，经调整净利润9.2亿元。 风险提示：内容平台监管持续趋严的风险、内容行业竞争加剧与商业化平衡的风险、业务依赖爆款与增 长可持续性的风险。 用户高忠诚度加速向高质量商业价值转化，公司通过游戏、增值服务、广告等模式变现 1)游戏业务始于其浓厚的二次元基因，目前正迈向多元化全品类布局，2024年6月发布的《三国：谋定 天下》作为公司首款非二次元SLG产品大获成功，成为公司历史上最快达到10亿元流水的游戏，推动游 戏收入强势反弹;2)增值业务稳定增长，主要由大会员订阅驱动;3)广告负载克制，通过精细化运营加强 商业化变现能力。公司承诺番剧不加贴片广告，目前主要广告形式为品牌广告、效果广告和原生广告， 伴随拥抱更多垂直领域广告主，3Q2025广告收入同比增长23%至25.7亿元。 整体收入增速在游戏业务推动下回暖，盈利能力持续改善 智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报 ...

B站好评如潮的《逃离鸭科夫》突然陷入运营争议。 近日，由B站发行的俯视角射击游戏——《逃离鸭科夫》（Escape from Duckov）发布了一则致歉与说 明公告，回应了此前社区内MOD（游戏修改模组）相关的争议事件。 凭借上述差异化玩法与独特的萌系画风，《逃离鸭科夫》在单机及"搜打撤"市场脱颖而出。据B站官方 此前披露，该游戏全球的总销量已经超过了300万份，同时在线人数达到了30万，Steam好评率达到了 96%。 受该事件影响，《逃离鸭科夫》近几日新增超千条差评。 信息来源：Steam商店 "MOD作为一种游戏修改，本质上是为了增强游戏体验。出现异常代码，既属于MOD作者的技术性问 题，也是厂商自身技术把关不严的问题。"互联网产业分析师张书乐对记者表示，在这类事件中，游戏 公司应该第一时间解决玩家问题，修复游戏BUG或下线相关模组；至于如何处理与创作者的关系，体 现的是厂商对模组生态的整体态度，属于另一维度。 在张书乐看来，此次争议的核心在于处理不及时，导致部分玩家无法登陆，严重影响了游戏体验，"网 游最大的特点就是能够快速迭代，第一时间修复游戏漏洞，而《逃离鸭科夫》在此次事件中处理方 式'呆萌'且速 ...

1. 哔哩哔哩-W第四季度业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2025年12月15日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测公司Q4一致预期营业收入78.74~89.58亿元，同比增长1.8%~15.8%； 预测公司Q4一致预期净利润1.18~7.24亿元，同比增长31.7%~704.7%； 预测公司Q4一致预期经调整净利润3.52~8.97亿元，同比变动-22.3%~97.9%。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续港股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 | 机构简称 | | 天营业收入 上大 同比 | | 净利润 | 同比 | 经调整净利润 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卖方预测区间 | | 78.74~89.58 | 1.8%~15.8% | 1.18~7.24 | 31.7%~704.7% | 3.52~8.97 | -22.3%~97.9% | | 平均数 | - | 81.78 | 5.7% | 3.99 | 343.6% | 7.43 | 64.1% | | 中位数 | | 81.49 | 5.4% | 4.22 ...

Core Insights - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the approval of 178 domestic game licenses and 6 imported game licenses on November 26, indicating a stable monthly issuance of licenses, which is expected to boost market confidence in the gaming industry [1][3]. Industry Overview - As of November, a total of 1,532 domestic game licenses and 92 imported game licenses have been issued this year, showing a significant increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][3]. - The distribution of the 178 domestic licenses includes 167 mobile games, 7 games for both mobile and client platforms, 3 client-only games, and 1 game available on mobile, client, and web platforms [1]. Company Highlights - Key games approved in this round include titles from major companies such as: - Ksyun Network's "Ice and Snow King" - Iceberg Network's "Little Guardian" - Perfect World's "Dream New Zhu Xian: Light Enjoy" - Other notable titles from various developers [2]. - Tencent continues to maintain a strong portfolio with 14 evergreen games, while Giant Network's "Supernatural Action Group" has exceeded expectations [4]. - Companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Perfect World are also expected to contribute to profit growth with their new game launches and existing titles [4].

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 7.685 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 5.2% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.7% [1] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 786 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 233% [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 36.7%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-over-year [1] Business Segment Performance - Mobile game revenue was 1.51 billion yuan, down 17.1% year-over-year, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year [1] - Value-added services revenue reached 3.02 billion yuan, up 7.1% year-over-year, driven by growth in paid membership income [1] - Advertising revenue exceeded expectations at 2.57 billion yuan compared to the consensus of 2.51 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 22.7% [1] - Revenue from IP derivatives and other sources was 580 million yuan, up 2.7% year-over-year [1] Game Development and Launches - The long-term operation of games such as "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" and the stable operation of "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" contributed incremental revenue to the company's gaming business [1] - The new game "Escape from Duckkov" launched in October sold over 3 million copies in its first month, with peak online users exceeding 300,000, and is expected to be adapted for mobile and console platforms [1] - Upcoming game "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" is expected to launch in Q1 2026, targeting young users with its fast-paced and low-cost gameplay [1] User Metrics and Community Growth - The company achieved record highs in core user metrics, with daily active users (DAU) reaching 117 million, up 9% year-over-year, and monthly active users (MAU) at 376 million, up 8% year-over-year [2] - Average daily usage time increased by 6 minutes year-over-year to 112 minutes, with the number of paying users reaching 35 million, a year-over-year increase of 17% [2] - The growth in high-quality content and community experience continues to drive stable user growth, enhancing the commercial value of advertising [2] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.18 billion yuan, 33.72 billion yuan, and 36.44 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2.23 billion yuan, 3.60 billion yuan, and 4.42 billion yuan for the same years [2]