以下文章来源于黄青春频道 ，作者黄青春Youth 黄青春频道 . 看清流量迁徙的切面 盈利成色几何？ 出品｜虎嗅黄青春频道 作者｜商业消费主笔 黄青春 题图｜视觉中国 B 站首次实现全年盈利，"小破站"的钱袋子终于鼓起来了。 3 月 5 日，B 站发布 2025 年第四季度及全年未经审计财务报告。2025 年首次实现 GAAP 口径全年盈利， 净利润 11.9 亿元，相较 2024 年净亏损 13.6 亿实现扭亏为盈；全年调整后净利润 25.9 亿元，正向运营现 金流达 71 亿元。 与此同时，社区生态重回扩张周期：2025Q4 日均活跃用户 1.13 亿，同比增长 10%；月均活跃用户 3.66 亿，同比增长 8%；日均使用时长提升至 107 分钟，用户粘性稳居行业前列。 不过，市场为 B 站盈利欣喜的同时，更值得追问的是：这次盈利成色几何，是否具备可持续性？ 单季度来看，2025Q4 B 站总营收 83.2 亿元，同比增长 8%； 净利润 5.1 亿元，同比大幅提升 478%； 毛 利率连续 14 个季度环比提升至 37%，调整后运营利润率升至 10%，稳步向 15%-20% 的中期目标迈进。 B站钱袋子 ...

B站成绩单出炉。 3月5日，B站（哔哩哔哩）公布了2025年第四季度及全年财报。数据显示，B站去年四季度总营收达83.2亿元，同比增长8%，净利润同比提升 478%；全年总营收达303.5亿元，同比增长13%；调整后净利润25.9亿元，实现全年盈利，2024年则录得经调整净亏损3900万元。 2025年，B站活跃用户数连续四个季度同比提速增长。四季度日均活跃用户达1.13亿，同比增长10%；月均活跃用户达3.66亿，同比增长8%；日 均使用时长也提升至107分钟，同比增长8分钟。 "2025年对哔哩哔哩而言是具有里程碑意义的一年，我们见证了社区的强劲增长，并且首次实现了美国公认会计准则下的全年盈利。"哔哩哔哩董 事长兼首席执行官陈睿表示。 陈睿还表示："我们的各项用户指标全面提升，日活用户表现尤其突出，连续四个季度同比加速增长。第四季度，我们的日活用户达1.13亿，同 比增长10%；月活用户达3.66亿，同比增长8%。过去一年里，我们持续提升商业化执行力度，发掘社区内在价值，创下月付费用户新纪录，广告 营业额也加速增长。在充斥着'快餐式'内容的环境中，哔哩哔哩对高质量内容的长期坚持使我们脱颖而出，并赢得愈来愈 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2026 年 3 月 3 日 星期二 【公司评论】 哔哩哔哩（BILI/9626）2025 年业绩前瞻 2025 年第四季度及全年财务一致预期 根据 Visible Alpha 的一致预期，第四季度收入为 81.9 亿元，同比增长 5.8%；全 年收入为 302.1 亿元，同比增长 12.6%。按收入细分，移动游戏四季度预期为 15.3 亿人民币，同比下降 14.7%；全年预期为 63.9 亿人民币，同比上升 13.8%。直播 及增值服务四季度预期同比上升 5.4%，至 32.5 亿元人民币；全年预期同比上升 8.4%，至 119.2 亿元。四季度预计广告收入 29.5 亿元人民币，同比增长 23.4%； 全年录得 99.6 亿元，同比增长 21.6%。IP 衍生品及其他收入四季度预期为 4.6 亿 人民币，同比下降 1.7%；全年预期为 19.4 亿人民币，同比下降 4.4%。 利润端，体现核心业务的 Non-GAAP 归母净利润第四季度录得 8.2 亿元人民币， 同比增长 80.3%；全年 25.1 亿元人民币，相比 2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bilibili (B站) has successfully transformed from a niche community platform to the largest PUGC video platform in China, with strong user engagement and a diversified revenue structure driving growth [1][2]. Group 1: User Engagement and Community - Bilibili has built a high-barrier, highly engaging video interest community, resulting in a strong emotional bond and trust between users and content creators (UP主) [1]. - As of Q3 2025, the platform's Monthly Active Users (MAU) and Daily Active Users (DAU) reached 376 million and 117 million, respectively, both hitting historical highs [1]. - The average user age has increased from 21 in 2018 to 26, indicating successful cross-generational expansion and a growing consumer base [1]. Group 2: Business Structure and Revenue Growth - Bilibili's revenue is driven by four main segments: value-added services, advertising, gaming, and IP derivatives, with value-added services being the largest revenue source [1]. - Advertising revenue grew by 21% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average due to algorithm improvements and community maturity [1]. - The gaming segment is expected to see substantial growth with the launch of the popular SLG mobile game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" in 2024, breaking the platform's reliance on niche content [1]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Profitability - Bilibili achieved a significant financial turning point, with gross and net profit margins improving since 2023, and the company turning a profit in Q3 2024 [2]. - Content costs are only 10% of revenue, much lower than traditional long-video platforms, and marketing expenses have decreased to 16%, indicating a shift away from a "burning cash for growth" model [2]. - Operating cash flow turned positive in 2023, with further growth to 5.308 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a healthy self-sustaining capability [2]. Group 4: Investment Logic and Future Growth - The company maintains a positive profit forecast, with adjusted net profits expected to be 2.548 billion, 3.366 billion, and 4.576 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. - Bilibili's gaming and advertising sectors are poised for growth, with potential market expansion as the company transitions from niche to mainstream IP categories [3]. - The advertising monetization efficiency has significant room for improvement, with potential for substantial revenue increases if it aligns with industry averages [3].

Group 1: Hongqiao Holdings (002379.SZ) - The company is a leading aluminum producer with over 19 million tons of alumina capacity and 6.46 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, making it the second-largest aluminum producer globally [8] - The revenue from electrolytic aluminum accounts for over 70% of total revenue, while alumina contributes 20% [8] - The company benefits from stable alumina supply and lower transportation costs due to its advantageous geographical location [8] - The electricity cost for electrolytic aluminum production is relatively high, but there is potential for reduction, which could significantly increase profits [9] - The company has a high dividend payout policy, planning to distribute at least 80% of profits as cash dividends from 2025 to 2027 [9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 166.2 billion, 177.3 billion, and 177.3 billion yuan, with net profits of 19.31 billion, 29.21 billion, and 30.39 billion yuan respectively [10] Group 2: Electric Power Green Energy (000875.SZ) - The company is the only green hydrogen energy platform under the State Power Investment Corporation, focusing on both "new energy" and "green hydrogen" sectors [10] - As of 2024, the company has a total installed capacity of 14.44 million kilowatts, with a significant portion from renewable sources [10] - The profitability of coal-fired power generation is expected to stabilize due to improvements in pricing mechanisms [11] - The company is actively developing green hydrogen projects, leveraging abundant wind and solar resources for hydrogen production [12] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 533 million, 809 million, and 907 million yuan, with a projected price range of 7.89 to 8.24 yuan per share [13] Group 3: Agricultural Industry - The agricultural sector is experiencing significant supply pressures, particularly in egg production, which may lead to accelerated culling of dairy cows due to low milk prices [14] - The price of live pigs is expected to remain stable, while beef prices are projected to rise, indicating a potential upward trend in the beef cycle [15] - The dairy market is facing challenges, with raw milk prices potentially reaching a turning point in 2026 [15] - The poultry market is expected to benefit from improved domestic demand, with limited supply fluctuations [15] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor index saw an 18.04% increase in January, outperforming the electronic industry and the Shanghai Composite Index [28] - Global semiconductor sales in December 2025 reached $78.88 billion, marking a 37.1% year-on-year increase [28] - The demand for DRAM and NAND Flash is expected to grow significantly, with DRAM production value projected to increase by 144% in 2026 [31] Group 5: Bilibili (09626.HK) - Bilibili has successfully transitioned from a niche platform to a leading PUGC video platform, with MAU and DAU reaching historical highs [32] - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, driven by high-margin advertising and gaming businesses [33] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 25.48 billion, 33.66 billion, and 45.76 billion yuan, with a significant upside potential in stock valuation [34]

2026年02月10日 证券研究报告 | 哔哩哔哩（9626.HK)深度 跨越盈利拐点，A I应用与游戏品类扩张加速商业化价值释放 公司研究 · 深度研究 传媒 · 传媒 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 财务越过盈亏平衡线，利润进入加速释放期。1）财务数据的质变是B站重要的拐点时刻。受惠于高毛利广告及游戏业务占比的提升，公司毛利率与净利率自2023年起持续改善， 成功在2024年Q3实现单季利润转正，并预计在2025年实现全年扭亏为盈，开启利润加速释放期 ；2）B站独特的PUGV生态使其在成本端具备天然优势：2024年内容成本仅占营收 的10%，远低于传统长视频平台。同时营销费用率已降至16%，表明平台已脱离"烧钱换增长"阶段，依靠内生社区动力即可实现用户的长效留存 ；3）在现金流方面，公司经营 性现金流于2023年转正，2025年前三季度进一步增长至53.08亿元，健康的自身造血能力结合持续优化的治理结构，正推动B站从流量平台向高利润商业体演进。 投资逻辑：短期具备安全边际，长线成长空间持续打开；1）我们维持盈利预测，维持"优于大市"评级。预计公司2025/26/27年经调后净利润分别为25.48/33.6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company is crossing the profitability inflection point, with accelerated commercialization of AI applications and game category expansion [2] - Bilibili has successfully transformed from a niche community platform to a leading PUGC video platform, achieving historical highs in MAU and DAU, with 376 million and 117 million respectively as of Q3 2025 [4][23] - The business structure is optimized with dual drivers of advertising and gaming, contributing to revenue elasticity [5] - Financial performance has improved significantly, with the company achieving positive net profit in Q3 2024 and expected to turn profitable for the full year 2025 [6] Company Overview - Bilibili, established in 2009, has evolved into the largest PUGC video platform in China, characterized by a high barrier to entry and strong user engagement [4][16] - The platform has successfully expanded its user demographic, with the average user age increasing from 21 in 2018 to 26 currently, tapping into the Z+ generation [4] Business Structure - The company's revenue sources include value-added services, advertising, gaming, and IP derivatives, with value-added services being the largest revenue contributor [5][40] - Advertising revenue grew by 21% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average [5][52] - The gaming segment has seen a resurgence with the launch of the popular SLG mobile game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World," contributing to a substantial increase in gaming revenue [5][55] Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown consistent growth, with total revenue expected to reach 26.83 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase [70] - The gross margin and net margin have been improving since 2023, with the company achieving a quarterly profit for the first time in Q3 2024 [6][70] - Operating cash flow turned positive in 2023, indicating a healthy self-sustaining business model [6][75] Investment Logic - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting adjusted net profits of 2.548 billion, 3.366 billion, and 4.576 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 36, 27, and 23 [7] - The potential for growth in gaming and advertising is being enhanced by AI technology and a comprehensive content strategy, with significant upside potential in advertising revenue [7][100]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company has crossed the profitability inflection point, with accelerated commercialization of AI applications and expansion in gaming categories [2] - Bilibili has established itself as the leading PUGV platform in China, successfully transitioning from a niche community to a comprehensive video platform, with a strong user base and high engagement metrics [4] - The business structure has been optimized, with advertising and gaming driving revenue growth, showcasing resilience and flexibility in revenue generation [5] - Financial performance has improved significantly, with the company expected to achieve profitability in 2025, marking a pivotal moment in its financial trajectory [6] - The investment logic indicates a short-term safety margin and long-term growth potential, with projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at 2.548 billion, 3.366 billion, and 4.576 billion RMB respectively [7] Company Overview - Bilibili, founded in 2009, has evolved into the largest PUGC video platform in China, characterized by a high barrier to entry and strong user engagement [4][16] - As of Q3 2025, the platform's MAU and DAU reached 376 million and 117 million respectively, both historical highs, indicating strong user loyalty [4][23] Business Structure - The company's revenue is diversified across four main segments: value-added services, advertising, gaming, and IP derivatives, with value-added services being the largest revenue source [5][40] - Advertising revenue grew by 21% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average [5][52] Financial Performance - The company achieved a significant turnaround in financial performance, with a quarterly profit in Q3 2024 and expectations for full-year profitability in 2025 [6][70] - Operating cash flow turned positive in 2023, with further growth to 5.308 billion RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating strong self-sustaining capabilities [6][70] User Ecosystem - The user demographic has expanded, with the average age increasing from 21 in 2018 to 26 in 2024, indicating a broader appeal and potential for monetization [88] - Monthly active paid users reached 35 million, reflecting a strong conversion of users into paying customers [88] Gaming Business - The gaming segment has seen a strategic shift from a focus on niche genres to broader IP categories, with the successful launch of the SLG game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy" contributing significantly to revenue growth [55][99] - The gaming revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached approximately 48.54 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of nearly 27% [99] Advertising Business - The advertising segment has shown consistent growth, with revenue increasing from 0.817 billion RMB in 2019 to 8.189 billion RMB in 2024, and a 21% increase in the first three quarters of 2025 [52][70] Cost Management - Content costs are significantly lower than traditional long-video platforms, with only 10% of revenue allocated to content costs in 2024, compared to 75% for competitors [6][75] - The sales and marketing expense ratio has decreased to 16% in 2024, indicating a shift away from aggressive spending for growth [80]

Core Insights - The domestic gaming industry and user base experienced steady growth in 2025, with over 80,000 gaming companies established, marking an increase from over 50,000 in 2024 and over 60,000 in 2023 [1] - A wave of entrepreneurship is emerging in the gaming sector, with notable industry figures leaving established companies to start their own ventures [1][2] - Despite a competitive market, opportunities remain for new companies due to an influx of talented individuals and market openings created by larger firms focusing on leading projects [1] Company Developments - Guangzhou Fenglan Games, founded in January last year, has nearly 100 employees and is developing a hardcore space-themed SLG titled "Code: Space," set for its first test in March [2] - Chengdu Xiaozhiyou, founded by Chen Shaohao, has over 300 team members and is working on a UE5-based open-world action game, with significant past revenue from previous projects exceeding 30 billion [4] - Shanghai Mengshang Technology, founded by former MiHoYo technical director He Jia, focuses on AI gaming and has secured funding [7] - Guangzhou Jiezhi Information, co-founded by former NetEase executive Jin Tao, has received IP authorization for "Onmyoji" and is developing a project similar to a previously unapproved title [7] Trends in Entrepreneurship - Many former industry leaders are launching startups, often securing funding before product launches, indicating a strong demand for quality content providers [2][7] - Companies are increasingly exploring new directions such as AI-driven content and interactive gaming experiences, with several startups focusing on these emerging trends [13][15] - The SLG genre continues to attract attention, with global strategy mobile game revenue increasing by 20% year-on-year, prompting more companies to enter this space [20][22] Market Dynamics - The gaming industry remains volatile, yet this environment has created entrepreneurial opportunities for many professionals [26] - New companies are often targeting lighter, hybrid gameplay experiences, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences [20][22] - The rise of AI and interactive gaming is drawing interest from outside the traditional gaming sector, leading to innovative projects and collaborations [13][15]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Bilibili-W (09626) management believes the company's fourth-quarter performance will meet expectations, raising the target price for Hong Kong shares from HKD 279.9 to HKD 314.9 and for US shares from USD 36 to USD 40.5, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Advertising Growth Outlook - Management holds a constructive view on advertising growth prospects for 2026, noting early signs of demand growth from AI and gaming advertisers [1] - The company is confident in its ability to sustainably capture budget allocations from e-commerce advertisers and will actively expand into new verticals to broaden its advertising client base [1] Group 2: Gaming Performance - For the game "Three Kingdoms: Strategy of the World," management anticipates seasonal fluctuations in Q4 2025, with revenue expected to stabilize in Q1 this year due to two seasons (S12 and S13) being included [1] - The Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan versions of the game are set to launch at the end of January, while the Japanese and Korean versions are planned for release in the second half of this year [1] Group 3: Future Game Developments - Regarding "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card," the company plans to conduct a new round of testing after the Lunar New Year, believing the game has significant potential in lower-tier markets [1] - Management maintains a constructive outlook on the medium to long-term operational potential and profitability of this game and may consider developing a mini-game version [1] Group 4: Financial Forecast Adjustments - The firm has adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2026 upwards by 1% and 2% respectively, due to improved advertising growth prospects [1]