Workflow
内需托底
icon
Search documents
美国对华加征34%关税,扩内需逻辑或持续强化
AVIC Securities· 2025-04-09 00:25
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The main investment theme is a shift towards domestic demand as external demand faces pressure due to the implementation of a 34% retaliatory tariff on Chinese goods by the U.S. This shift is expected to catalyze growth in cultural tourism and content consumption [2][15]. - The Chinese government has issued a "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption," focusing on supporting sectors such as performances, animation, cultural tourism, and domestic products, indicating a policy shift towards enhancing domestic consumption [2][15]. - Data shows a significant recovery in cultural tourism and live performances, with domestic travel during the Spring Festival reaching 501 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and total spending of 677 billion yuan, up 7.0% [16][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The social services sector index saw a weekly increase of 0.49%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industries [4][7]. - The performance of sub-industries included declines in tourism and scenic spots (-0.62%), professional services (-0.99%), and education (-1.07%) [4][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the media sector benefits from policy support, data improvement, and profit recovery, suggesting a mid-term focus on companies with strong content supply, channel control, and IP commercialization capabilities [6][19]. - The report identifies three main lines for investment: 1. Companies linked to IP supply and cultural tourism, such as Light Media and Songcheng Performance. 2. Companies focused on traffic conversion and content marketing platforms, like Yaowang Technology and Tianxiexiu. 3. Service companies benefiting from improved scenarios and channels, including China Youth Travel Service and Jinjiang Hotels [19]. Industry News Dynamics - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has launched 32 themed rural tourism routes to promote spring tourism, highlighting the integration of ecological and cultural experiences [20]. - The report notes the rapid growth of China's travel services, with a 38.1% increase in travel service imports and exports in 2024, indicating the sector's importance in the national economy [21].