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信号出现!“游击战”凸显公募换仓频繁,下一步如何应战?
券商中国· 2025-05-29 03:31
Market Trends - The stock market is showing characteristics of "east hammer west stick" guerrilla tactics, with left-side stock selection becoming a key strategy post new regulations in the public fund industry [1] - Many public fund managers are focusing on right-side upward trends rather than valuation screening, indicating a shift in holding styles [1][3] - The recent market changes have led to frequent portfolio adjustments by institutional investors, reflecting a dynamic trading environment [3][4] Investment Strategies - Low valuation and profit factors have performed relatively poorly in the market this year, with public funds favoring growth strategies amid a strong valuation uplift since 2025 [3] - Fund managers are increasingly seeking stocks with compelling narratives rather than low valuation assets, even in a hot Hong Kong market [3] - The current market environment is characterized by a cautious approach, with a shift towards defensive strategies anticipated due to expected adjustments [6][9] Economic Indicators - The A-share market remains in a wide fluctuation pattern, with a lack of strong short-term themes, although potential incremental capital inflows are noted [4] - The current economic cycle shows a flatter transmission of corporate and household deposits to profits, indicating a cautious outlook for credit expansion [4] - The market is expected to experience a narrow range of fluctuations, supported by fundamentals and liquidity, while adjustments may be less severe than in previous years [9] Tactical Approaches - The investment strategy is described as a combination of "prolonged battle, consumption battle, and guerrilla warfare," emphasizing the need for tactical positioning and risk management [6][7] - The market is likely to see adjustments in the second quarter, with a focus on macroeconomic events influencing future trends [8][9] - Defensive strategies are recommended, targeting low-valuation large-cap stocks and sectors with potential for recovery [9]