2025.11. 23 本文字数：1262，阅读时长大约2分钟 封图 | 美国F-35战机 资料图 路透社22日援引数名匿名美国官员的话报道，美国已准备好于近日对委内瑞拉发起"下一阶段行 动"，目标选项包括推翻委总统马杜罗领导的政府。由于美方已提前就"飞越委内瑞拉领空"的安全风 险发出警告，多家国际航空公司宣布暂时停飞涉委航班。 委内瑞拉总统马杜罗 资料图 据报道，两名不愿公开姓名的美国政府官员透露，作为"下一阶段行动"的前奏，美国可能先对委采 取"秘密行动"。关于行动目标，一名美国政府高层官员表示美方不排除任何选项，"特朗普总统准备 好动用任何形式的美国强力手段以阻止毒品流入美国并法办所有责任人"；有两名美方官员说，美方 谋划的选项包括"推翻马杜罗政权"。 路透社报道说，尚不清楚美方计划对委发起"下一阶段行动"的确切时间和范围，以及行动是否得到 特朗普最后"拍板"。 成80余人死亡。国际人权团体谴责美军"非法杀害平民"，包括美国部分盟友在内的多国也质疑此举 违反国际法。 美国联邦航空局21日向多家大型航空公司发出警告，称鉴于委内瑞拉"安全局势恶化、境内和周边军 事活动加强"，任何民航客机飞越委内瑞拉领空都会 ...

（原标题："美国准备动手"） 来源：新华社 路透社22日援引数名匿名美国官员的话报道，美国已准备好于近日对委内瑞拉发起"下一阶段行动"，目 标选项包括推翻委总统马杜罗领导的政府。由于美方已提前就"飞越委内瑞拉领空"的安全风险发出警 告，多家国际航空公司宣布暂时停飞涉委航班。 一些政治分析人士认为，将"太阳集团"列为"外国恐怖组织"这一举措是在为美国直接对委采取军事行动 做铺垫。美国国防部长赫格塞思上周说，此举可为美方对委行动"提供大量新的选项"。特朗普也表示， 依据这一认定，美国可对委境内关联马杜罗的资产和基础设施实施打击。 本届美国政府对马杜罗政府加大施压，毫不讳言希望马杜罗下台，特朗普先前已授权美国中央情报局在 委实施"秘密行动"。9月初以来，美军已在加勒比海和东太平洋击沉超过20艘所谓"贩毒船"，造成80余 人死亡。国际人权团体谴责美军"非法杀害平民"，包括美国部分盟友在内的多国也质疑此举违反国际 法。 美国联邦航空局21日向多家大型航空公司发出警告，称鉴于委内瑞拉"安全局势恶化、境内和周边军事 活动加强"，任何民航客机飞越委内瑞拉领空都会"面临危险境况"，各航企需"谨慎行事"。 委内瑞拉航空公司协会说 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing an innovation-driven bull market, with sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption witnessing significant growth in "Chinese-style innovation" [1][6]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is based on a three-dimensional model combining macroeconomic cycle assessment, industry rotation allocation, and in-depth stock analysis [1][4]. - The approach emphasizes a dynamic balance in asset allocation, avoiding extreme positions typical of either growth or value investing [4][5]. - The investment framework is characterized by a focus on economic cycles and industry trends, selecting 3 to 5 high-prospect industries for targeted investment each year [4][6]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - The net value growth rate of the fund managed by the company reached 19.18% in the past six months and 18.70% over the past year [3]. - The fund's performance ranked in the top 5% of its peers over the past two years, indicating strong relative performance [3]. Group 3: Market Adaptation - The company adjusts its stock positions flexibly, reducing equity exposure from 91% in Q2 2023 to 67% by the end of Q4 2023, effectively managing drawdowns during uncertain market conditions [6]. - In 2024, the company increased stock positions again, successfully capturing market opportunities [6]. Group 4: Key Investment Themes - The company identifies three key investment themes with contemporary relevance: AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption, which are seen as driving forces of the current market [5][6]. - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is highlighted as undergoing significant transformation, approaching the standards of developed countries [6].

Core Points - The article discusses the life and legacy of Peng Yue, a significant figure during the early Han dynasty, highlighting his rise from a fisherman to a military leader and ultimately his tragic downfall [2][3][13]. Group 1: Background and Early Life - Peng Yue was born in the ancient region of Jiuye, which is now part of modern-day Shandong, and was known for his strength and intelligence from a young age [13][14]. - He initially avoided involvement in the rebellion against the Qin dynasty, expressing hesitation about the uncertain outcome of the conflict [14]. Group 2: Rise to Power - After a year of waiting, Peng Yue was persuaded by local fishermen to lead a rebellion, which he accepted, demonstrating his leadership by enforcing strict military discipline [3][15]. - He played a crucial role in the uprising against the Qin dynasty, assisting Liu Bang in capturing cities and gaining military strength [17][18]. Group 3: Relationship with Liu Bang and Political Maneuvering - Peng Yue initially allied with Liu Bang after the fall of the Qin dynasty, but later felt sidelined when he was not granted a kingdom like other generals [17][22]. - His refusal to join Liu Bang in a critical battle led to suspicion and resentment from Liu Bang, who remembered past grievances against Peng Yue [22][23]. Group 4: Downfall and Execution - Following a series of political intrigues, including accusations of treason, Peng Yue was arrested and ultimately executed under the influence of Empress Lü [29][30]. - His execution was marked by brutality, with his body mutilated and displayed as a warning to others, reflecting the harsh realities of political power struggles in ancient China [30][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant contributions of Zhuang Tian during the Qiongya Anti-Japanese War, emphasizing his leadership and strategic military actions that helped strengthen the resistance against Japanese forces in Hainan [3][4][5]. Group 1: Background and Early Life - Zhuang Tian was born in November 1906 in a poor farming family in Wanning, Hainan, and later became a prominent figure in the Chinese People's Liberation Army [4]. - He initially worked as a laborer overseas before returning to China to participate in the Long March and subsequently leading anti-Japanese efforts in Hainan [4][5]. Group 2: Leadership in Anti-Japanese War - In April 1940, Zhuang Tian was appointed as the deputy commander of the Qiongya Anti-Japanese Independent Brigade, tasked with military organization and enhancing combat effectiveness [5]. - His leadership transformed the brigade from a defensive posture to an offensive one, significantly boosting the morale and fighting spirit of the local forces [5][9]. Group 3: Military Strategies and Victories - Zhuang Tian employed guerrilla tactics to counter the Japanese forces, successfully executing operations that resulted in the destruction of numerous enemy positions and significant enemy casualties [6][7][8]. - Notable victories included the first and second counter-offensive operations against Japanese "encirclement" tactics, where his forces inflicted heavy losses on the enemy [7][8]. Group 4: Legacy and Commemoration - Zhuang Tian's efforts not only strengthened the local resistance but also laid a foundation for future victories in the region, with his strategies leading to the consolidation of anti-Japanese power in Hainan [9]. - His former residence has been preserved as a patriotic education base, aiming to inspire future generations with the revolutionary spirit he embodied [9].

Group 1 - The article highlights the shift in stock market strategies post new regulations in the public fund industry, with a focus on "left-side stock selection" becoming a key strategy as underperforming stocks gain traction [1] - Fund managers are increasingly prioritizing stocks with upward trends rather than those based on valuation metrics, indicating a departure from traditional valuation screening [1][2] - The market has shown rapid sector rotation, with a lack of strong profit-making opportunities, leading to a wide fluctuation in A-share markets [3] Group 2 - Defensive strategies are being emphasized by public fund managers due to anticipated market adjustments, suggesting a shift in stock selection thinking [4] - The current market sentiment reflects a return of risk aversion, with the overall market entering a state of oscillation and lacking clear direction [4] - Historical patterns indicate that the market typically performs well in the first quarter, but adjustments are expected in June and July, following the completion of annual reports [5][6] Group 3 - The article suggests that while the market may experience adjustments, the underlying fundamentals and liquidity provide some support, indicating that the extent of these adjustments may be limited [6] - Future market movements may depend on macroeconomic events, including domestic policies and U.S.-China trade negotiations, with potential for a staggered rise in response to these events [6]

Market Trends - The stock market is showing characteristics of "east hammer west stick" guerrilla tactics, with left-side stock selection becoming a key strategy post new regulations in the public fund industry [1] - Many public fund managers are focusing on right-side upward trends rather than valuation screening, indicating a shift in holding styles [1][3] - The recent market changes have led to frequent portfolio adjustments by institutional investors, reflecting a dynamic trading environment [3][4] Investment Strategies - Low valuation and profit factors have performed relatively poorly in the market this year, with public funds favoring growth strategies amid a strong valuation uplift since 2025 [3] - Fund managers are increasingly seeking stocks with compelling narratives rather than low valuation assets, even in a hot Hong Kong market [3] - The current market environment is characterized by a cautious approach, with a shift towards defensive strategies anticipated due to expected adjustments [6][9] Economic Indicators - The A-share market remains in a wide fluctuation pattern, with a lack of strong short-term themes, although potential incremental capital inflows are noted [4] - The current economic cycle shows a flatter transmission of corporate and household deposits to profits, indicating a cautious outlook for credit expansion [4] - The market is expected to experience a narrow range of fluctuations, supported by fundamentals and liquidity, while adjustments may be less severe than in previous years [9] Tactical Approaches - The investment strategy is described as a combination of "prolonged battle, consumption battle, and guerrilla warfare," emphasizing the need for tactical positioning and risk management [6][7] - The market is likely to see adjustments in the second quarter, with a focus on macroeconomic events influencing future trends [8][9] - Defensive strategies are recommended, targeting low-valuation large-cap stocks and sectors with potential for recovery [9]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of avoiding common mistakes in mergers and acquisitions, particularly in the context of the Chinese market and the recent "Evergrande phenomenon" in the automotive industry [1] - It highlights the significant decline in the number of Chinese new energy vehicle companies from over 487 in 2017 to only around 40 by 2024, attributing this to a loss of credibility and rigid debt structures [1] - The article discusses the macroeconomic backdrop of "five lows and one high," suggesting that industry guidance for investment is paramount, especially in light of ongoing policy implementations and unresolved tariff negotiations [1] Group 2 - The market is currently experiencing volatility with a lack of clear direction, as risk assets have adjusted following a pause in the trade war, leading to mixed performances across various indices [2] - The investment strategy for 2025 is framed around a "long war—consumption war—guerrilla war" logic, focusing on the interplay between macroeconomic factors and corporate innovation [3] - The article notes that the "guerrilla war" strategy involves tactical operations and theme investments, which are expected to be short-lived but can capitalize on market fluctuations [10] Group 3 - The article outlines the global debt risks, particularly in the context of U.S. and Japanese bonds, which have heightened concerns about economic stability and potential crises [4] - It discusses the nature of government debt, emphasizing that it is a public liability often governed by incomplete contracts, and highlights the significant increase in U.S. federal debt from $19.9 trillion in 2017 to an estimated $36.2 trillion by 2025 [5][6] - The article suggests that while debt can lead to fiscal crises, it can also be managed through economic growth, tax revenue increases, and other financial strategies [7] Group 4 - The article warns of potential short-term debt risks leading up to July 2025, particularly regarding the U.S. debt ceiling and the possibility of technical defaults if Congress fails to act [8] - It posits that the long-term trend for the renminbi is one of appreciation, driven by the need to reduce debt repayment costs through dollar depreciation [9] - The article encourages investors to consider macroeconomic cycles, cultural shifts, and significant policy changes as potential themes for investment opportunities [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant contributions of Chinese military leaders who studied at the Vasilevsky Military Academy in the Soviet Union, emphasizing their roles in modernizing the Chinese military and their impact during the Anti-Japanese War [1][10]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Vasilevsky Military Academy has trained both domestic and international military personnel, including early members of the Chinese Communist Party such as Liu Bocheng and Zuo Quan [3][8]. - Liu Bocheng, who studied at the academy, faced language barriers but overcame them through diligent study of Russian, which enabled him to excel in military theory and practice [4][6]. Group 2: Contributions to Military Strategy - Upon returning to China, Liu Bocheng translated and standardized military terminology and authored several military textbooks, which were crucial for adapting to new warfare strategies during the Anti-Japanese War [7][10]. - Zuo Quan, another notable graduate, played a key role in the Long March and later in the anti-Japanese efforts, demonstrating the practical application of the knowledge gained at the academy [8][10]. Group 3: Ongoing Legacy - The relationship between the Chinese military and the Vasilevsky Military Academy continued post-1949, with ongoing exchanges that contributed to military development and the maintenance of peace [10].