今日A股市场缩量震荡，主要指数微幅调整，深市表现弱于沪市；港股则延续调整态势，科技板块承压 明显，两地市场整体呈现"A股结构分化、港股成长回调"的格局。全市场赚钱效应有所收窄，量能持续 萎缩至1.69万亿元，资金避险情绪升温，低估值蓝筹与政策题材成为短期资金主要流向，而前期热门成 长赛道普遍承压。短期市场或延续震荡整理，需耐心等待新的催化信号。 申万一级行业层面，石油石化（1.58%）、银行（0.97%）、家用电器涨幅居前，有色金属 （-1.36%）、电力设备（-1.29%）、农林牧渔、国防军工、煤炭均跌超1%。 主要指数表现 成长赛道集体调整，新能源与科技板块承压明显。锂电电解液指数大跌3.93%，受上游原材料价格走弱 与产能过剩担忧拖累；存储芯片概念同步回调，技术面呈现破位走势；CPO概念分化，反映板块内部盈 利预期出现分歧。黄金股受国际金价单日暴跌近280美元冲击，贵金属板块情绪降至冰点。 港股市场行业分化加剧，防御性配置特征显著。内银股与A股形成联动，恒生银行指数独立走强；航空 股午后拉升，国庆假期出境游数据亮眼与淡季票价提升预期构成支撑。然而，科技成长板块全面低迷， 恒生科技指数成分股多数下跌，创新 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is showing a defensive style, with major indices experiencing adjustments while defensive sectors like banking and coal are performing well [1][3] - Global markets are exhibiting significant divergence, with US stocks rising due to increased expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, while European indices are under pressure from weak economic data [2][5] - The A-share market's trading volume has decreased, indicating a cautious market sentiment, with a total trading volume of 10.96 trillion yuan for the week [3][5] Group 2 - In the A-share market, the major indices are generally declining, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the ChiNext Index down 5.71%, reflecting a "value strong, growth weak" characteristic [3][5] - Defensive sectors such as banking (up 4.89%) and coal (up 4.17%) are leading the gains, while technology and media sectors are experiencing significant declines [3][4] - The Hong Kong market is also under pressure, with the Hang Seng Index down 3.97% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 7.98%, primarily due to valuation corrections in tech stocks [4][5] Group 3 - The commodity market is seeing strong demand for precious metals, with COMEX gold and silver prices rising by 6.69% and 7.15% respectively, indicating increased market risk aversion [4][5] - The upcoming earnings reports from major players in the new energy sector, such as CATL and Tesla, are expected to influence market sentiment and sector performance [6] - The overall market is anticipated to enter a recovery phase, with major indices approaching support levels and potential short-term rebound momentum building [5][6]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a "high-cut low" style switch, but this defensive characteristic is not leading to an overall index increase, indicating a continued adjustment phase since early September [1][2] - The overall profitability effect in the A-share market has declined to a medium-low level, suggesting that the adjustment phase is nearing its end, while the "high-cut low" trading strategy is becoming less attractive [1][2] - Discussions about style switching in the fourth quarter are increasing, with a focus on technology leading the market recovery rather than cyclical sectors [1][8] Group 2 - The overseas environment is stabilizing, with recent events in the U.S. banking sector causing temporary risk aversion, but the VIX index has peaked and is now declining [7] - The potential for a significant market rally is anticipated in Q4 2025, driven by factors such as rising overseas AI capital expenditure and advancements in the domestic AI industry [8][9] - The mid-term market outlook remains unchanged, with expectations that technology sector catalysts will significantly outpace those of cyclical sectors until spring 2026 [8][9] Group 3 - The current market structure suggests that the transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market hinges on the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, particularly in high-market-share sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [10] - The profitability diffusion indicators show a contraction in various sectors, with notable declines in metals, power equipment, and real estate, while coal and banking sectors continue to expand [14] - The financing sentiment index indicates a cautious approach among investors, reflecting the current market dynamics and potential for future growth [15]

Group 1: AH Market Performance - A-shares have significantly outperformed H-shares since the beginning of Q3 2025, indicating a divergence from the AH premium rate trends[3] - The AH premium rate index recently touched a historical low of 120, suggesting a potential reconfiguration of the premium rate central tendency[20] - The premium rate is influenced by liquidity differences, investor structure, and tax policies between A-shares and H-shares[5] Group 2: Q4 Outlook - The Q4 investment strategy should shift focus from aggressive tech growth sectors to policy-favored areas such as consumption and re-inflation sectors[7] - A-share earnings growth is expected to be stronger than H-share, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices showing higher projected earnings per share (EPS) growth rates[12] - The liquidity in A-shares remains robust, with a significant portion of trading activity driven by "deposit migration" phenomena[69] Group 3: Valuation and Risk - The valuation of H-shares appears less attractive compared to A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index's risk premium at relatively low levels[98] - The risk premium for H-shares is currently insufficient for foreign investors, while the Nasdaq remains appealing due to its risk premium levels[100] - The report highlights potential risks including policy misalignment and model failures that could impact future performance[13]

本文作者为创金合信基金首席经济学家魏凤春 前两期首席视点指出，用花旗经济意外指数表示的风险溢价有抬升的趋势，用技术指标衡量的中证A50 调整并没有到位，从杰文斯悖论的基本原理出发，无论是布局AI+技术，还是布局能源都是基于主导产 业的投资。假日期间，海外科技涨幅良好，黄金创出新高，全球秩序重构呈现新的态势。节后A股开盘 两天冰火两重天，A股、美股与港股有所调整。特朗普故技重施，投资者开始担忧4月冲击的重演。这 种担心其实是四季度资产配置分歧加大，趋势、结构与节奏紊乱的真实写照。 一、市场回顾：科技成长调整明显 从数据看，过去一个季度成长股涨势最好，科创50、创业板指涨幅40%左右，恒生科技涨幅19%，北证 50涨幅只有6%，显示科技成长之间分化严重。白银、黄金涨幅靠前，全球资金避险情绪明显，布油、 螺纹钢涨幅落后，投资者对全球增长的担心并没有消失。 从周度走势看，恒生科技、创业板指、布油跌幅靠前，黄金、焦煤涨幅靠前，上周投资者避险情绪明 显，权益市场高低切换的防守策略开始成为共识。10月12日，市场聚焦特朗普重新采取加征关税的非理 性行为会否引发次生性灾害，在成长科技有所调整的时刻，这一催化为四季度的资产配置 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant divergence in performance post-holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index losing the 3900-point mark and the ChiNext Index dropping over 4% on Friday, marking its largest single-day decline since April 7 [1] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market increased to 2.60 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [1] Economic Data - Holiday consumption demonstrated resilience in domestic demand, although per capita travel spending decreased year-on-year, reflecting limited consumer willingness [1] - The tightening of U.S.-China relations has led to a reduction in market risk appetite, with potential short-term impacts on domestic equity markets [2] Industry Insights - The cyclical sectors led the market gains, while technology and growth sectors lagged behind [1] - The short-term market style is expected to rebalance, with a focus on sectors showing performance, particularly in technology, AI, and domestic alternatives like semiconductors and energy storage [3] - Non-bank financial sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and financial IT are anticipated to see improvements in both valuation and performance [3] Policy and Future Outlook - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" draft is expected to provide clear guidance for industrial development and economic restructuring, serving as a significant policy catalyst for the fourth quarter [2] - Despite the current market challenges, there remains a positive outlook for incremental capital inflows into the equity market, supported by stable economic fundamentals and a potential Fed rate cut cycle [2]

从段永平的"本分"理念谈起 （文章来源：上海证券报） 段永平强调的"本分"，除了自身坚守本分投资以外，还体现在所投公司经营上的"本分"。在vivo公司30 周年庆典上，vivo公司创始人沈炜再次强调了公司的"本分"理念。沈炜表示："本分能让我们穿透迷 雾，回归事物本源去思考，守住自己的能力圈。本分让我们心无旁骛，淡定从容地做正确的事，并力求 把事情做正确。阿段开创的以本分为核心的企业文化，是我们企业健康成长到今天的最根本之所在。" 在信息爆炸的时代，投资者每天面对着海量的市场噪音、热点轮动和专家观点。这些信息看似增加了我 们的知识，实则往往干扰了我们的判断。段永平的"本分"理念，提供了一种应对之道——回归本质，聚 焦真正重要的事物，他所提醒的"最好不要想市值，集中精力看生意"，在当前市场环境下更具针对性。 事实上，无数投资案例表明，那些追逐热点、渴望快速致富的投资者，往往在艰难的道路上疲于奔命， 最终大多是被市场教育。那些最终获利颇丰的人，几乎都是坚守本分，从上市公司的生意模式和经营层 面出发的投资者。 毋庸置疑，在过去几个月的上涨之后，当前的市场开始逐渐喧嚣，但对于投资者来说，此时此刻，更是 回归初心时。 ...

Market Overview - The profit cycle remains weak, but liquidity and risk appetite factors have improved, making the market relatively attractive in the medium term [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are favorable for gold, copper, and growth styles [1] - Global stock indices have risen, with gold surpassing $4000 per ounce, while oil prices remain weak [1] Economic Indicators - In September, the manufacturing PMI marginally increased to 49.8% from 49.4% in August, while the non-manufacturing business activity index slightly decreased to 50% from 50.3% [1] - The production side shows stronger improvement compared to the demand side, indicating a high market risk appetite [1] Market Strategy - In the bond market, interest rates are expected to fluctuate at high levels before the holiday, with intense long-short battles [1] - The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, but cautious liquidity measures indicate a focus on preventing capital turnover [1] - The bond market may remain in a volatile pattern due to upcoming events such as the Fourth Plenary Session and US-China negotiations [1] A-Share Market - Despite the National Day consumption not exceeding expectations, the market is still in a window period for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Anticipation of new domestic demand policies from the Fourth Plenary Session and the Central Economic Work Conference suggests limited downside risk for indices [1] - The technology growth sector is expected to continue outperforming, driven by domestic and international AI industry catalysts [1] Hong Kong Stock Market - Following the Federal Reserve's preemptive interest rate cuts, the Hong Kong stock market typically shows strong resilience [2] Oil Market - Oil demand is expected to remain weak over the next 25 years, with continuous supply release putting downward pressure on oil prices [3] Gold Market - A positive long-term outlook for gold prices is anticipated, with short-term upward pressure from events such as the US government shutdown [4]

朋友们，帮主郑重又来了，做了20年财经记者，聊政策我就爱跟大家说点实在的——美联储9月会议纪要一出来，不少做中长线的朋友都在问，这25个基 点的降息到底是机会还是"烟雾弹"？ 但帮主得提醒一句，中长线投资别盯着"降息"这俩字就冲动。毕竟通胀要到2027年才达标，意味着全球流动性不会立刻变宽松，短期市场可能会有波动。 咱们更该关注的是国内那些政策支持、基本面扎实的领域，比如对资金成本敏感的科技成长赛道，还有受益于内需复苏的板块，耐心等政策落地和数据 验证比追短期热点靠谱多了。 总的来说，这次降息是个明确的宽松信号，但步子很稳。对中长线玩家来说，不用急着调仓，盯紧国内经济数据和行业基本面，机会是等出来的，不是 抢出来的。 先把事儿说明白，当地时间8号公布的纪要里写得很清楚，美联储几乎所有委员都同意降息，把基准利率降到了4%到4.25%之间。为啥这么干？说白了就 是两难里找平衡：一边是就业增长慢了、失业率有点抬头，劳动力市场明显软了；另一边通胀还没完全到2%的目标线，还得绷着点。所以这25个基点， 更像是提前防御经济下行的"保险"，不是大水漫灌的信号。 不过有两个点，中长线投资者得往深了看。一个是经济预测的变化，美 ...

Group 1 - The core focus during the recent holidays was on resources and AI sectors, with significant price increases in precious metals, base metals, and energy metals, indicating a rising interest in resource security [1] - The trend of AI expanding from enterprise-level to consumer-level is becoming more evident, suggesting a potential explosion in edge hardware and applications [1] - The structural market themes remain centered around resource security, corporate overseas expansion, and technological innovation, aligning with the "resources + overseas + new productivity" investment framework [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to experience a "red October," with optimism for the fourth quarter and cross-year market performance [2] - The market is likely to show a pattern of "more gains than losses" following the holiday, supported by positive internal and external news, including expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and significant AI industry trends [3] - The current A-share rally, which began on September 24, 2024, is entering a phase driven by fundamental improvements, with historical patterns indicating a gradual expansion of recovery from specific sectors to broader market areas [4] Group 3 - October is anticipated to be a critical policy window for the A-share market, with a potential for increased risk appetite and continued positive liquidity trends [5] - The combination of ongoing U.S. monetary easing and the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be central to market focus, with technology growth stocks and emerging industry leaders likely to benefit from this environment [6] - The current economic cycle is characterized by a focus on supply-side reforms and demand-side expansion, which may enhance the certainty of profit improvements [7] Group 4 - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in technology growth sectors, particularly in AI and robotics, following the holiday period [9] - The current A-share rally is projected to unfold in three phases, starting with a focus on core technology sectors, followed by broader technology growth themes, and eventually expanding to consumer sectors as macroeconomic improvements are observed [10] - The upcoming earnings season and policy developments are likely to catalyze continued structural market growth, with recommendations to focus on high-growth and high-elasticity sectors [11]