格隆汇9月4日｜方正证券研报称，7月以来伴随关税政策风险缓和以及美国经济的相对韧性，市场对美 股年内EPS增速预期明显上修。下半年美国经济或趋于温和下行，对美股盈利带来一定压力。但在AI景 气度不减+美国经济衰退风险仍相对偏低背景下，美股盈利仍需继续观察。对于美股而言，市场集中度 再度创新高，很大程度反映以AI为代表的科技成长股维持高景气，但同样会导致市场脆弱度的提升。 美股当下估值和集中度重新回偏高区间，短期继续上涨空间或相对有限，板块轮动的概率提升，中长期 仍维持看好。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced high volatility with increased trading volume, driven by policy support and mid-term performance catalysts, particularly in real estate, agriculture, and power equipment sectors [1] - The ChiNext index showed strong performance, with average daily trading volume rising to 2.98 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - The market style favored growth sectors over cyclical, consumer, and financial sectors, with technology growth leading the gains [1] Group 2 - Jin Ying Fund suggests focusing on sectors with potential for future profit improvement, including technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, non-bank financials, and non-ferrous metals [2] - In the technology sector, AI is at a high emotional trading point, with both domestic and overseas developments being encouraged, particularly in AI applications and advanced semiconductor processes [2] - The military industry may see rotation opportunities due to upcoming events like the September 3 military parade and the formulation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] Group 3 - As the market strengthens, non-bank financial sectors such as brokerage, insurance, and financial IT are expected to see improvements in both valuation and performance [2] - With expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a dual easing of overseas monetary and fiscal policies by 2026, sectors benefiting from external demand, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals, may present investment opportunities [2] - The focus on policy-driven industries like photovoltaics is anticipated to strengthen in the future, reflecting a shift away from internal competition [2]

本报记者 于宏 近日，券商密集举行秋季策略会，对后市行情走势进行展望，并对投资主线、配置机遇做出最新研判，为投资者提供有效 参考。券商分析师普遍认为，在多重积极因素支撑下，A股市场有望保持中长期持续向好趋势，投资机遇方面，科技、消费等 板块与红利资产较受看好。 策略会的主题一定程度上展现了券商的核心研判。例如，华泰证券2025年秋季投资峰会的主题为"谋划长远，破卷立新"， 广发证券秋季资本论坛的主题为"智见中国资产"，国金证券秋季策略会的主题为"关山亦可越"，华福证券秋季策略会的主题 为"百炼成钢"，华源证券的秋季策略会主题为"周期转折点，牛市新引擎"，均体现出对市场的坚定信心和乐观态度。 中国人民大学财政金融学院金融学教授郑志刚在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示："券商密集召开秋季策略会，发布专 业观点，有助于减少信息不对称，稳定市场预期，增强市场理性和韧性。同时，策略会能够有效连接券商、上市公司与投资 者，为投资者提供清晰的决策参考，促进市场主体的良性互动。此外，券商也能够通过举行策略会展示自身的研究实力与品牌 价值，开拓更多业务机遇。" 聚焦券商对后市行情的研判观点，东兴证券研究所策略首席分析师林阳表示， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "style drift" in public funds, highlighting the significant deviation of the Jiayin Innovation Leading Mixed Fund from its original investment strategy, raising concerns among investors and regulators [1][7]. Fund Performance and Strategy - The Jiayin Innovation Leading Mixed Fund, managed by Guo Fei for 5.5 years, has shifted its investment focus from technology growth stocks to low-valuation, high-dividend assets such as banks and power companies, which contradicts its "innovation" branding [1][6]. - As of Q2 2025, the fund's top holdings include Jiangsu Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank, reflecting a clear low-risk, high-dividend characteristic [2]. - The fund's performance has been relatively mediocre, with a return of 10.48% since 2025, significantly lower than the average return of 27.11% for equity mixed funds and 13.58% for the CSI 300 index [3][4]. Historical Performance Data - The fund's annual returns from 2021 to 2025 show fluctuations, with a notable decline in 2022 (-20.12%) and a recovery in 2024 (13.26%) [4]. - Over its 5.5-year history, the fund has achieved a total return of 50.09% and an annualized return of 7.66%, which, while outperforming its benchmark, does not demonstrate a clear "innovation" advantage [4][6]. Investment Logic and Market Implications - Guo Fei's investment logic emphasizes defensive positioning and dividend yield, contrasting sharply with the fund's original growth-oriented theme [6]. - The fund's significant shift in strategy poses a mismatch risk for investors who initially subscribed based on the "innovation" theme, indicating potential challenges in maintaining investor trust and adherence to investment discipline [6][7].

Market Performance - A-shares led global equity markets with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.49% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 5.85%[4] - The implied volatility of the 50ETF rose to 19.78%, indicating increased market uncertainty[4] - The Dow Jones reached a new high with a gain of 1.53%, while the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline of 0.58%[4] Bond Market Insights - The 30-year government bond futures fell by 1.43%, reflecting significant adjustments in the domestic bond market[4] - The negative correlation between stocks and bonds reached a historical high, highlighting the "see-saw effect" in market dynamics[4] Commodity Trends - International commodities showed strength, with Brent crude oil up by 2.14% and COMEX gold rising by 1.02%, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation hedging[4] - Domestic commodity prices generally declined, with the South China Commodity Index down by 0.44%[4] Currency Movements - The US dollar index decreased by 0.13%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.24%[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - For bonds, focus on high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly in a low-risk environment[5] - In overseas equities, consider opportunities in interest-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar[5] - For A-shares, maintain an overweight position in technology growth sectors, particularly electronics and AI hardware[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential monetary policy easing in September if inflation continues to decline, marking a significant shift in policy direction [2][3] - The market reacted strongly, with gold prices surging 3.2% to over $2500 per ounce, Brent crude oil surpassing $95, and the offshore RMB appreciating over 500 basis points in a single day [2][4] - The probability of a rate cut in September jumped from 32% to 78%, with expectations for cumulative cuts in 2023 increasing from 75 basis points to 125 basis points [3] Group 2 - Powell acknowledged a clear trend of declining inflation, with the core PCE price index remaining between 2.3% and 2.5% for five consecutive months [3] - The current interest rate of 5.25%-5.5% may exceed the neutral rate, raising concerns about the risks of over-tightening [3] - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with non-farm payrolls adding only 185,000 jobs in July, below the expected 220,000 [3] Group 3 - Global asset prices began a "repricing" phase, with gold and oil markets experiencing significant gains due to expectations of lower real interest rates and geopolitical risks [4] - The oil market is supported by expectations of a weaker dollar, with UBS estimating that a 1% drop in the dollar index typically leads to a 1.5%-2% increase in oil prices [4] - The stock market showed mixed results, with the Nasdaq reaching a record high while the Dow Jones faced slight declines due to banking sector pressures [4] Group 4 - Central banks worldwide are adjusting their policies in response to the Fed's shift, with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank signaling potential rate cuts [5] - Emerging markets are also accelerating their easing measures, with Brazil and India taking notable actions [5] - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is evident, with countries like Russia increasing their yuan reserves and Argentina replacing the dollar in trade settlements [5] Group 5 - Investment strategies may need recalibration, with gold mining stocks and industrial metals being favored due to their benefits from a weaker dollar and increased demand for new energy [6] - Long-term U.S. Treasury bonds are seen as an attractive option, with the 10-year yield potentially dropping to 3.8% [6] - Technology growth stocks, particularly in AI and quantum computing, remain preferred investments in a loosening monetary environment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a ten-year high, but many equity funds have failed to capture economic growth, with 154 funds showing negative returns over the past decade, including 91 equity products [1] Group 1: Fund Performance - Among the underperforming funds, the Fuanda Emerging Growth A fund has a ten-year return of -46.52%, ranking sixth in the equity fund decline list [1] - The fund has experienced extreme volatility, achieving significant returns during bull markets (e.g., 70.51% in 2019) but suffering substantial losses in bear markets (e.g., -45.95% in 2022) [5][6] - The fund's worst six-month return was -50.5%, while the best was 60.08%, indicating a poor long-term holding experience [7] Group 2: Relative Performance - In 2024, the fund declined by -12.51%, lagging its benchmark by over 23 percentage points, and in 2023, it fell -23.10%, underperforming the benchmark's -8.88% [7] - The fund has consistently underperformed its benchmark in most years, highlighting challenges in generating excess returns [7] Group 3: Management Issues - The fund has had five managers over ten years, with an average tenure of 2.54 years, and all managers have generally delivered poor performance [7][8] - The only manager with positive returns was Kong Xuebing, who achieved 28.62% during his tenure from 2014 to 2015 [9] Group 4: Portfolio Composition - The fund's second-quarter holdings are heavily concentrated in the technology growth sector, with significant increases in positions for companies like Lexin Technology (up 72.08%) and Fulin Precision (up 75.81%) [9][11] - The fund manager's investment strategy focuses on growth companies in sectors such as optical modules, computers, and consumer electronics, reflecting a preference for growth-oriented investments [12]

Core Insights - The private equity securities fund industry has shown strong performance in the first seven months of 2025, with an average return of 11.94% across 11,880 monitored private products, and 86.97% of these products achieving positive returns [1] - The stock strategy has led the five major private equity strategies with an average return of 14.50%, benefiting from the significant rise in small and mid-cap indices and various market drivers [1][2] - High enthusiasm for equity asset allocation persists among private equity institutions, with an average position level of 74.22% as of August 8, 2025, indicating a medium to high level of investment [3] Private Equity Performance - The stock strategy has emerged as the performance benchmark among private equity strategies, with 7,760 stock strategy products achieving an average return of 14.50% [1][2] - The top 5% of stock strategy products reported an impressive average return of 42.44% in the same period, highlighting the absolute return capability of leading products [1] Market Trends and Strategies - Private equity institutions are focusing on structural opportunities in the market, particularly in technology growth, consumer recovery, and policy-benefiting sectors [1][4] - The average position of large private equity firms is notably higher than the industry average, with 74.13% as of August 8, 2025, indicating strong confidence in market conditions [3] Sector Focus - Public equity funds also maintain high position levels, with an overall equity fund position of 93.21%, reflecting a focus on sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, and automotive [3] - Investment strategies are shifting towards sectors with structural opportunities, including robotics, domestic computing power, AI applications, and industries benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [4]

投资逻辑转向基本面 成交额持续攀升、融资余额重回历史高位、三大股指迭创年内新高——A股市场正持续以强势姿态逐步 向上拓展空间。在指数上升与结构分化的市场格局下，一线私募机构对市场趋势的研判、对板块轮动的 策略应对，清晰勾勒出私募全面看好后市的轮廓。 市场强势格局持续深化。本周以来，上证指数、深证成指、创业板指同步刷新2025年以来新高水平。两 市成交额连续多日站上2万亿元关口，融资余额重返2万亿元以上的历史高位，资金入场意愿显著增强。 尽管本周四市场冲高回落，但私募机构普遍认为，目前市场趋势性行情仍在持续展开。 星石投资表示："当前市场正处于行情中期阶段，随着积极因素持续累积，市场中枢有望进一步抬 升。"该机构分析认为，股市赚钱效应将持续吸引居民储蓄和全球配置资金流入，同时企业业绩周期触 底回升，中国权益资产正从流动性驱动转向基本面驱动，"这种转变将使市场进入更稳定、更持续的阶 段"。 趣时资产则从四重维度论证市场趋势的持续性：外部扰动因素进入阶段性缓和期；美联储降息预期与国 内政策面有望形成共振；中国在人工智能（AI）、高端制造等领域的竞争力持续显现；居民资金借道 机构产品持续流入股市。"这四重因素将共同支 ...

Group 1: Historical Bull Markets in A-shares - The classic bull markets in A-shares can be categorized into four types: liquidity-driven bull (2014-2015), fundamental bull driven by post-crisis economic recovery (2008-2009), "Davis Double-Click" bull driven by institutional dividends and profit growth (2005-2007), and a mixed bull market transitioning from leverage to fundamentals (1999-2001) [1][7][8] - The 2014-2015 bull market was characterized by reform expectations without profit support, with industry rotation showing "big finance on stage, technology growth taking over" [1][7] - The 2008-2009 bull market was driven by a "4 trillion" fiscal stimulus and monetary easing, leading to alternating leadership between cyclical and consumer sectors, as well as emerging industries [1][7][8] - The 2005-2007 bull market saw a broad-based rally under the backdrop of stock reform, exchange rate reform, and macroeconomic prosperity, with blue chips leading the rally in the later stages [1][7][8] - The 1999-2001 bull market was initially driven by the tech bubble, followed by a shift to cyclical sectors like energy [1][7][8] Group 2: Future Bull Market in A-shares - The future bull market in A-shares is expected to resemble the new and old kinetic energy conversion seen in Japan from 2012 to 2018, characterized by low inflation and a stable GDP growth [2][3] - The core of the new and old kinetic energy conversion bull market in A-shares is a significant reversal in pricing, with a shift from "new winning over old" to "the last song of the old" [3] - The transition is supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption, fiscal support, monetary easing, and structural transformation, particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, new consumption, and overseas expansion [3] - The current phase in A-shares is identified as "new winning over old," but caution is advised as it may transition to "the last song of the old," where cyclical sectors may lead the market [3]