分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 报告统计时间为2025.07.07-2025.07.11。 期权市场方面， 从隐含波动率水平来看，上证50与中证1000隐波呈上涨趋势，同时中证1000的隐 含分红率与看跌期权偏度开始下降，这说明经过市场在大盘突破3500点关键点位后整体情绪有所 提振。 可转债市场方面， 估值端呈现放量上涨的势头，百元转股溢价率再度升高，接近5月初峰值，转债 市场成交额也显著放大。不过低转股溢价率转债的占比却有所抬升，一定程度上体现了市场的分 歧。信用利差在快速收窄后维稳。 风险提示： 本报告根据历史公开数据及定期报告整理，存在失效风险，不代表对基金未来资产配 置情况的预测，不构成投资建议；报告研究依赖数据可靠性、研究假设和估算方法，结果可能存 在偏差。 01 市场行情回顾 本报告统计时间为2025.07.07-2025.07.11。 冲高之后，短期或有分歧。短期内冲高主要受大金融以及去产能相关行业带动，指数强势，小盘 以及前期热点题材跟随意愿有所减弱。周五沪指放量长上影线，显示尽管市场情绪偏强，但指数 ...

Group 1: Global Economic Overview - The global economy is facing complex challenges, including the aftermath of the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, energy structure adjustments, and technological revolutions, leading to uncertain market conditions [1] - Inflation remains a significant issue for major economies, with the U.S. core PCE above the 2% target and the Eurozone struggling with energy price volatility and weak manufacturing [3] - The International Bank for Settlements highlights interconnected challenges such as weak potential output growth, increasing fiscal vulnerabilities, and rising credit and liquidity risks in the non-bank financial sector [3] Group 2: China's Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP reached 134.9 trillion yuan, growing at a rate of 5%, with primary, secondary, and tertiary industries growing at 3.5%, 5.3%, and 5% respectively [4] - The consumer market is recovering, with significant growth in tourism and sales of upgraded consumer goods like electric vehicles and smart home products, indicating the release of domestic market potential [4] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw value-added growth of 8.9% and 7.7%, respectively, outpacing overall industrial value-added growth [4] Group 3: Challenges in China's Economy - The real estate market is still adjusting, with some companies facing unresolved debt risks and local government fiscal sustainability under pressure [5] - Despite global demand slowdown affecting foreign trade, exports of "new three items" (electric vehicles, lithium batteries, solar batteries) increased by 28.7%, showcasing the competitiveness of Chinese manufacturing [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to diversify asset allocation, with a noticeable structural trend in the stock market where consumer recovery and tech growth sectors alternate in leading performance [6] - The bond market remains stable under expectations of monetary policy easing, with government bonds and high-grade credit bonds still holding certain allocation value [6] - Commodity markets are experiencing volatility due to geopolitical factors and supply chain restructuring, with gold gaining appeal as a safe-haven asset [6] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - The future of the global economy is uncertain, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, the effectiveness of China's growth policies, and the resolution of the European energy crisis [7] - China aims to deepen its domestic demand strategy and promote technological innovation, contributing to high-quality development amid a complex international environment [7] - The country advocates for inclusive economic globalization and strengthens cooperation through initiatives like the Belt and Road, aiming to enhance the global economic governance system [7]

Group 1 - The central bank announced a significant liquidity support measure by conducting a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 15, with 800 billion yuan for 3-month and 600 billion yuan for 6-month terms, which is seen as a strong positive signal for the market [1] - The A-share market continued to strengthen, primarily driven by bank stocks, while technology growth stocks showed weakness, indicating a shift in capital towards large-cap stocks [1] - The market saw a notable increase in active stocks, with 3,000 stocks rising and over 2,000 declining, suggesting improved performance of thematic stocks compared to the previous week [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3,532 points and a low of 3,513 points, indicating a narrow trading range of less than 19 points, reflecting a divergence among the three major indices [5] - The closing data showed the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.27% while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11%, indicating a mixed performance in the market [7] - The current market dynamics suggest that while large-cap stocks are performing well, small-cap stocks remain relatively weak, and there is a concern about the sustainability of the upward trend driven mainly by banks and large financial institutions [7]

特朗普7日在自己创立的"真实社交"网站上陆续发布了他写给14国领导人的信函。根据这些信的内容，日本、韩国、马来西亚、突尼斯、哈萨克斯坦将被征 收25%的关税，南非和波黑将被征收30%的关税，印度尼西亚将被征收32%的关税，塞尔维亚和孟加拉国将被征收35%的关税，泰国和柬埔寨将被征收36% 的关税，老挝和缅甸则面临高达40%的关税。 关税风云进入第二季，但对于全球市场的影响在减弱。 据新华社消息，美国总统特朗普7日表示，将从8月1日起分别对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%不等的关税。 但此次关税风暴的冲击不及4月，美国三大指数7日跌幅不到1%；亚太股市7月8日表现更令人意外，日韩股市并没有明显受到影响，日经225指数、韩国 Kospi指数分别上涨0.25%、1.81%；上证综指和恒生指数8日分别涨0.7%和1.09%；截至记者发稿，欧洲股市主要指数走势平稳，英国富时100指数、德国 DAX指数8日盘中小幅上涨。 就目前而言，仅英国、越南与美国达成了协议，其他国家与美国的谈判结果仍不明确。美国与英国的协议表明，最低名义关税率不会低于10%，但豁免和配 额可能使澳大利亚、新加坡等经济体的实际关 ...

金融加力支持高质量发展 [Table_ReportType] ——2025 年 6 月策略月报 [Table_ReportDate] [投资要点： Table_Summary] 2025 年 06 月 27 日 | [Table_Authors] 分析师: | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 020-32255208 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | [Table_ReportList] 相关研究 固本强基，向新向好 改革深化稳市场信心 政策加力支持金融开放与高质量发展 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_RightTitle] 策略研究|策略月报 [Table_Title] 策 略 月 报 策 略 研 究 ⚫ 6 月 A 股主要股指普遍上涨：截至 6 月 25 日收盘，上证综 指收报 3,455.97 点，较 5 月末上涨 3.24%。分结构看，本 月 A 股主要股指普遍上涨。其中，上证 50、沪深 300 指数 涨幅较大。 ⚫ 市场流动性有所改善：截至 6 月 25 日，6 月 A 股限售解禁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3400 points, reaching a new high for the year, and total trading volume exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Major indices in the A-share market are showing significant gains, with a "three consecutive days of gains" trend [1] - The financial and technology growth sectors are performing particularly well, indicating increased market confidence [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - A joint initiative by the central bank and six departments has introduced "19 measures" to enhance financial support for consumption, serving as a key driver for the current market rally [1] - The results of deep reforms in the capital market are becoming evident, with ongoing policy efforts aimed at optimizing the market ecosystem [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Current A-share valuations remain attractive, with the emergence of new technology forces presenting long-term investment opportunities [1] - Foreign capital inflows have reached a record high for the same period, with international institutions showing a positive outlook on Chinese assets [1] Group 4: Cautionary Notes - There is a need to remain vigilant regarding the complexities of the international environment that may cause short-term disruptions [1] - The emphasis is on value investing to share in the long-term benefits of the Chinese economy [1]

分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 分析师：黄浩 登记编号：S0890524110001 投资要点 本周A股延续前期震荡态势，在国际地缘政治风险事件影响下，小幅回落，上证指数周内最低点接近3350，但 是回调幅度有限，整体依旧呈现一定的支撑力度。海外美股市场也有相近特征，在权益指数接近前期高位和地 缘政治影响等多重阻力作用下，呈现震荡小幅收跌态势。在全球环境不确定性增加的时间内，资金避险偏好增 加，叠加中长期资金对于优质红利风格板块的偏好，低波策略表现相对较强。但随着风险事件的释放与计价， 海内外权益市场短期调整后带来的是更高的性价比，结合当前伊以冲突局势缓和后权益市场的表现，前期持续 提示的境内权益市场逢低布局机会初获成效 。 量化策略配置观点： 股基增强策略 > 常青低波策略 > 海外权益策略 A股方面，近期，上证指数在3400点位置有所震荡，在遇到阻力的同时，部分优质红利板块提供较强支撑力。 五月份至六月中，不少科技成长板块均处于调整状态，市场对于过快消除关税冲击的担忧得到一定程度计价， 快速反弹而带来的风险有所消化，科技板块在经历调整后，有企稳回升迹象，因此我们对于A股的观点持相对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the conflict between Israel and Iran, has led to significant volatility in global markets, especially in oil and precious metals prices. Group 1: Conflict Overview - On June 13, Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, targeting multiple locations including energy facilities, which resulted in fires and explosions [1][3] - Iran retaliated with missile attacks on June 16, hitting key infrastructure in cities like Haifa and Tel Aviv, causing further damage [3] Group 2: Market Impact - The conflict has caused a dramatic increase in oil prices, with WTI crude oil surging over 14% on the day of the conflict, closing at $73.18 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since March 2022 [3] - Following the initial surge, WTI futures opened higher again on June 16, but the market showed signs of instability, with prices retracting before the close [3] Group 3: Supply and Price Projections - Analysts predict that if Iranian oil supply is disrupted, the global supply gap could reach 1.6 million barrels per day, potentially raising oil prices by $5 to $10 per barrel [4] - Morgan Stanley has revised its Q3 Brent crude oil price forecast to $67.50 per barrel, citing the conflict's impact on supply [4] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility due to geopolitical tensions, some analysts believe that the fundamental market dynamics will dictate long-term trends, with oil prices expected to stabilize above $60 per barrel in the coming years [5] - The ongoing geopolitical risks are seen as temporary shocks, with the underlying fundamentals remaining the primary drivers of market performance [5]

（原标题：地缘风险是否会影响科技的修复逻辑？） 和讯自选股写手 风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 股票名称 "无" 板块名称 "科技成长","军工","创新药" 科技成长板块、地缘风险、AI产业链 看多看空 复盘历史上可比的地缘危机，其对市场的影响多为短期事件性冲击，内因才是市场走势 的主要矛盾，科技成长板块有独立产业趋势支撑，表现出较强韧性。本轮伊以冲突持续升级为多 国长期战争可能性低，短期下跌提供布局机会。当前科技板块整体处于高性价比区间，6月科技板 块胜率较高。此外，军工因地缘冲突和订单周期有望景气复苏，创新药政策和业绩改善，具备投 资价值。 兴业证券6月15日发布报告，探讨地缘风险对科技成长板块修复逻辑的影响。近期科技成长板块渐成市 场主线，但6月13日伊以冲突致风险资产普跌，引发投资者担忧。复盘过往地缘危机，其多为短期冲 击，科技成长板块有韧性。本轮 ...

| 板块名称 | 涨幅 | 主力金额 | 板块名称 | 涨幅备 | 主力金额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油气开采及服务 | +4.42% | -10.27 Z | 贵金属 | -1.79% | -4.88 Z | | 游戏 | +3.50% | +8.01 乙 | 毛发医疗 | -1.07% | -1.26亿 | | 影视院线 | +3.09% | +13.447. | 青蒿素 | -0.97% | -7111万 | | 风电设备 | +2.96% | +4.03 7 | 兵装重组概念 | -0.95% | -2.17 乙 | | 可燃冰 | +2.77% | -4.72 乙 | 机场航运 | -0.82% | +21827 | | 电子身份证 | +2.70% | +7.60 7. | 金属锌 | -0.79% | -3.03 乙 | | 快手概念 | +2.70% | +15.43 7. | 汽车服务及其他 | -0.79% | +17317 | | Web3.0 | +2.68% | +10.15 Z | 美容护理 | -0.75% | -1.4 ...