我的观点是，今天的全线下跌，是外部情绪、内部结构与年底季节性因素三重"寒流"叠加的集中体现。 它并非意味着牛市逻辑的终结，而更像是一次市场自发的、健康的"压力测试"和风格再平衡。它在提醒 我们：当流动性驱动的普涨告一段落，市场的焦点将重新回归到公司的基本面和成长的确定性上。 那么，面对这样的市场，我们中长线投资者该如何应对？我的策略建议是八个字：保持耐心，聚焦优 质。 首先，不必被单日的全线下跌吓倒。情绪的宣泄往往是快速的，但优质公司的价值修复是缓慢而坚实 的。利用市场的恐慌和非理性下跌，反而是我们冷静审视持仓、优化组合的良机。 其次，操作上，切忌盲目"抄底"或"割肉"。对于逻辑坚实、业绩能见度高的核心持仓，短期的波动完全 可以承受；而对于那些纯粹题材炒作、估值过高的品种，这次下跌或许是一次深刻的警示。我们的重 点，应该是检查自己船上的货物（持仓）是否足够优质，而不是预测海浪（指数）下一秒的高低。 最后，把目光放长远。市场的短期噪音总会过去，真正决定你长期收益的，是你所持有公司的竞争力和 成长性。在别人因为恐慌而卖出好公司时，我们更应该思考，它们的长期故事是否依然成立。如果答案 是肯定的，那么眼前的波动，不过 ...

市场回顾 上周A股主要指数涨跌不一，量能持续降低。 A股主要指数周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/01-2025/12/05 申万一级行业周涨跌幅（%） 资料来源：wind；统计区间：2025/12/01-2025/12/05 宏观数据分析 日本央行行长植田和男12月1日暗示本月晚些时候可能加息，这一表态释放了强烈的鹰派信号，日央行 将在12月18-19日举行货币政策会议，届时加息成为大概率事件。日本在"失去的30年"以来，一直维持 低利率甚至0利率状态，日元也因此成为国际货币套利交易中重要的组成部分。日本当前经济有复苏苗 头，工资持续上行。弱势的日元汇率带来了输入性通胀压力，日央行顺势开始试探加息收紧流动性。国 际市场在日央行表态后对潜在的流动性收紧进行了一定定价但幅度有限，且随着美股小非农不及预期、 美联储换届人选基本确定、特朗普账户支持美股等催化进一步被冲淡。市场的关注点集中于弱美元。后 续需观察日元汇率和日债收益率等指标走强的持续性，再行判断真正影响。 市场上周震荡反弹，资金面层面，市场量能偏低，多种技术指标偏弱，融资数据有好转。 短期观点 年底临近，机构资金活跃度低，市场 ...

A股方面，近期市场在缺乏明确政策指引的情况下保持震荡，成交额延续回落趋势，风格之间出现小幅 反转，前期回调时间较长的科技成长方向有所反弹。进入12月，中央经济工作会议和美联储FOMC会议 即将落地，市场方向有望更加明确。考虑到中期来看经济基本面和A股盈利有望处于回升态势，且中美 关系处于修复过程中，对市场保持乐观。结构方面，拥挤度已经充分缓解的科技成长行业有望在政策和 产业催化下占优。 海外方面，美国11月PMI制造业弱、服务业强，增长整体稳定。考虑到近几月就业偏弱，目前市场对12 月FOMC可能降息25bp预期定价充分，预计12月降息落地后可能释放暂缓降息的信号；后续关注美联储 的重启扩表计划以及新联储主席的提名及政策取向。日央行加息预期引日债利率上行，资产波动加大。 国内方面，11月制造业PMI边际回升，但较季节性偏弱，服务业PMI再度回落，供需两端分项指标均边 际改善、价格指标亦有所修复，反映内需回升基础仍待进一步巩固。近期稳地产相关政策预期明显升 温，若出台相关政策，也有望对需求和预期改善形成进一步支撑。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周跨月资金面宽松，金融时报提及央行"收短放长"，债市情绪较弱，超长 债 ...

申万宏源：险企投资相关股票风险因子下调 或释放千亿权益加仓空间 金融监管总局近日发布《关于调整保险公司相关业务风险因子的通知》，保险公司投资相关股票的风险 因子获得调整。险企投资相关股票风险因子下调是鼓励长期资金入市的配套政策。这将进一步定向鼓励 保险资金持有沪深300和科创板成分股，推动常态化高比例权益配置，同时保持了一定的机动空间。险 企投资相关股票风险因子下调，在综合偿付能力充足率不变情况下，所释放的权益加仓空间可达千亿级 别。 中国银河证券：险企股票投资风险因子下调 为市场注入更多流动性 短期来看，年末重要政策窗口临近，政策部署将为2026年经济工作指明方向，同时对于结构性行情也具 有重要指示意义。海外市场方面，美联储议息会议即将于下周举行，市场博弈加剧，投资者可关注议息 会议决议以及会后美联储主席鲍威尔表态对于全球资本流动的影响。 受市场情绪好转、风险偏好回升影响，本周A股主要宽基指数多数上涨。其中，创业板指表现最好，全 周累计上涨1.86%。展望后市，前期高位股的估值消化是否已经到位？还有哪些新增利好因素正在浮 现？2026年"春季躁动"行情还会有吗？请看本周机构研判。 华金证券：春季行情可能于今 ...

随着2025年进入尾声，多家券商机构密集发布2026年可转债市场投资展望。 券商机构普遍认为，在权益市场向好、政策红利释放及"固收+"资金持续流入的共同作用下，可转债市 场估值将维持高位，科技成长、能源转型、"反内卷"政策受益领域及低波动底仓品种等四类标的将成为 核心配置主线。 多因素将支撑转债估值维持高位 2025年以来，在权益市场回暖尤其是科技成长板块走高的带动下，转债市场接连走高，转债估值也得到 了明显修复。 具体来看，今年上半年，转债估值上行主要由于退市、违约等风险大幅缓释，低利率环境下转债配置需 求大幅提升，股市预期好转。转债市场中的低估品种有明显涨幅。 展望2026年，国泰海通证券认为，转债市场估值将维持高位，2026年转债市场最主要的支撑来自于对权 益市场的偏乐观预期。首先，作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，政策红利密集释放将直接提振市场风险偏 好。科技自主可控、高端制造等领域的产业政策持续发力，为相关行业转债提供基本面支撑；其次，权 益资产预期收益率上行趋势明确，中长期资金增持权益市场的需求强劲，共同巩固了转债的股性价值； 最后，在"资产荒"背景下，"固收+"资金对转债的配置需求旺盛，尤其是202 ...

Core Viewpoint - A-shares are undergoing significant adjustments in multiple key indices, effective December 12, 2025, with changes in sample stocks for indices such as the Shanghai 50, Sci-Tech 50, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index [1][2][12]. Index Adjustments - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co. announced changes to the sample stocks of the Shanghai 50, Shanghai 180, Shanghai 380, and Sci-Tech 50 indices, with the Shanghai 50 replacing 4 stocks, the Shanghai 180 replacing 7 stocks, the Shanghai 380 replacing 38 stocks, and the Sci-Tech 50 replacing 2 stocks [2][12]. - The Shanghai 50 index will include new stocks such as SAIC Motor, Northern Rare Earth, Huadian New Energy, and Zhongke Shuguang, while removing Poly Developments, China Mobile, China Aluminum, and CRRC [2][3]. - The Shanghai 180 index will add stocks like Guotou Capital, Zhongtian Technology, and Huadian New Energy, while removing stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy and Nanshan Aluminum [3][4]. - The Shanghai 380 index will see 38 stocks added, including COSCO Shipping Energy and Jinfat Technology, and will remove stocks like Guotou Capital and Furuida [4][5]. - The Sci-Tech 50 index will replace Huaxi Biological and Hangcai Co. with new additions including Aojie Technology and Shengke Communication [6][7]. Shenzhen Stock Exchange Adjustments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will also implement sample stock adjustments for the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, Shenzhen 100, and ChiNext 50, effective December 15, 2025 [7][8]. - The Shenzhen Component Index will add stocks such as Deep Housing A and Demingli, while removing stocks like China National Pharmaceutical and Tibet Mining [7][8]. - The ChiNext Index will include new stocks like Shuanglin Co. and Changshan Pharmaceutical, while removing stocks such as Bihui Source and Yihua Recording [8][10]. Broader Market Implications - The adjustments in sample stocks are expected to enhance the representation of sectors such as information technology, communication services, and industrials, leading to a more balanced industry allocation in the A-series indices [12][13]. - Analysts suggest that the market may experience a spring rally, with potential shifts in capital towards AI applications and sectors aligned with national policy support, such as hydrogen energy and quantum technology [14].

Market Performance - On November 26, the stock market showed mixed results, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% [1] Key Drivers - The ChiNext Index's 2.14% increase was primarily driven by multiple positive factors, including a reduction in geopolitical risks and improved market sentiment following a recent call between the leaders of China and the U.S. [2] - The call between the two leaders indicated a normalization of bilateral communication, which is expected to ease geopolitical tensions and enhance market confidence [2] Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly in AI, has become a focal point for investment due to its relatively high visibility in terms of economic prospects [2] - Short-term catalysts, such as new storage technology releases and accelerated IPO processes for AI companies, have further intensified interest in the technology sector [2] Market Sentiment - Current market indicators suggest that sentiment may be at a relatively low level after recent adjustments, indicating limited downward space [3] - The market is expected to gradually enter a mid-term layout phase as policy signals become clearer towards the end of the year, with a focus on sectors with strong performance certainty [3] Technical Signals - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating positive momentum for certain stocks [4]

Group 1 - The pace of capital inflow into equity ETFs has significantly accelerated, with a total net subscription amount reaching 196.48 billion yuan as of November 21 [1] - On November 21, the single-day net subscription amount for equity ETFs exceeded 40 billion yuan, marking the highest net inflow in over seven months [1] - The capital flow is directed towards three main categories: broker-themed ETFs and dividend-themed ETFs, technology growth-themed ETFs, and Hong Kong stock-themed ETFs [1] Group 2 - Morgan Asset Management states that despite recent market adjustments, liquidity shocks are nearing full pricing, and the overall market trend has not fundamentally changed [2] - The Chinese AI industry is still in its early development stage, avoiding the excessive capital expenditure issues seen in the U.S., with a solid foundation for technological innovation and self-sufficiency [2]

Market Strategy - The recent market rebound aligns with previous predictions of a "layout window emerging," but the market has not shown a simultaneous increase in volume and price, indicating that the rebound does not change the overall oscillating pattern [6] - The current tension in Sino-Japanese relations is a major factor restraining risk appetite, suggesting a cautious approach to technology growth sectors, which are more sensitive to risk preferences [6] - The real estate market has been in a downward trend since the policy release last September, with recent price increases in the sector driven by changes in policy expectations and capital inflows, but further confirmation of policy effectiveness is needed to sustain this momentum [6] Sector Strategy - In the technology sector, a cautious approach is recommended due to the difficulty in further upward adjustments in expectations amid declining risk appetite [6] - The cyclical consumer manufacturing sector, characterized by medium risk, is expected to gain market consensus as conditions evolve [6] - The real estate sector requires significant fiscal policy measures, such as mortgage interest subsidies, to boost market confidence and reverse negative expectations [6] Defense Industry - Recent U.S. arms sales to Japan, totaling approximately $82 million, may accelerate China's equipment development in response to increasing uncertainties in the Asia-Pacific region [6] - The geopolitical climate, influenced by Japan's military expansion and U.S. support, is likely to drive growth in China's defense capabilities [6]

Market Strategy - The recent market rebound does not change the overall oscillating pattern, and it is advised to continue with a low-buying strategy [2] - The current tension in Sino-Japanese relations is a major factor restraining risk appetite, suggesting a cautious approach towards technology growth sectors [2][6] - The real estate market has been underperforming since the policy release last September, and any short-term price increases may not be sustainable without stronger policy support [2][6] Sector Strategy - The technology growth sector is sensitive to risk appetite, and a cautious approach is recommended in the current environment [2] - The cyclical consumer manufacturing sector may gain market consensus as it presents moderate risk characteristics [2] - The real estate sector requires significant fiscal policy support, such as mortgage interest subsidies, to boost market confidence [2][6] Defense and Military Industry - Recent U.S. arms sales to Japan may accelerate China's equipment development, given the increasing uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region [2] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in defense and military sectors due to the geopolitical climate [2]