Core Viewpoint - The impending expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the US and Russia raises concerns about a potential new arms race, threatening global strategic stability [1][5]. Group 1: Treaty Background - The New START treaty, signed in 2010 and effective from February 5, 2011, was designed to limit the number of strategic nuclear weapons held by both countries, with an original term of 10 years and a possible 5-year extension [2]. - The treaty was extended in 2021 until February 5, 2026, with both parties meeting the core limitations prior to February 5, 2018 [2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Treaty Continuation - A lack of trust between the US and Russia has emerged, particularly following the deterioration of relations due to the Ukraine conflict, which has undermined the political foundation for cooperation [3]. - Changes in the US perception of threats, particularly with the development of advanced weapon systems like hypersonic weapons, have led to a belief that existing arms control mechanisms are outdated [3]. - Domestic political factors in the US, including skepticism from the Republican Party and the previous administration's push for a new multilateral arms control framework, contribute to the challenges in extending the treaty [3]. Group 3: Implications of Treaty Expiration - The expiration of the New START treaty could lead to an increase in nuclear arsenals, with reports suggesting that both the US and Russia could add hundreds of nuclear weapons within weeks [5]. - The absence of constraints and transparency mechanisms may heighten the risk of miscalculations and complicate crisis management, thereby increasing global strategic risks [5]. - The loss of the treaty is seen as a significant blow to international security, emphasizing the importance of arms control mechanisms as a foundation for global safety [5].