Core Points - The escalating threats of nuclear tests between the U.S. and Russia have raised global concerns about a new arms race, particularly with the New START treaty set to expire on February 4 [1][5] - The New START treaty limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 for both countries, and there has been no significant progress towards a new agreement [1][5] - Despite ongoing tensions, both nations appear to be adhering to the treaty's limits on strategic nuclear weapons [6] Group 1 - The U.S. and Russia have exchanged provocative statements regarding nuclear tests, with Trump ordering the first U.S. nuclear test in 30 years following Putin's missile test announcement [1] - Trump expressed a positive response to Putin's proposal to extend the New START treaty, but no formal negotiations have taken place since then [3][5] - The U.S. Secretary of State indicated that discussions about potential dialogue regarding the treaty are ongoing, despite Russia's suspension of a key monitoring mechanism [5][6] Group 2 - Experts are concerned that the absence of a new agreement could lead to dangerous miscalculations, as it would be the first time in decades that the U.S. and Russia could deploy long-range nuclear weapons without constraints [6] - Some experts believe that a political agreement to maintain the treaty's limits on deployed warheads could be achieved relatively quickly [6] - There is increasing pressure from Republican officials against extending the treaty, with some arguing that it restricts U.S. modernization of nuclear forces [7][8]

Core Points - Russian President Putin has ordered officials to draft a proposal regarding the potential resumption of nuclear weapons testing in response to U.S. President Trump's vow to restart such activities [1][2] - Trump's announcement to resume nuclear tests after a 33-year hiatus has raised concerns about a new global nuclear arms race [1][2] Group 1 - Putin described Trump's remarks as "serious" and requested comments from other members of the Security Council [2] - Russian Defense Minister Shoigu urged attention to U.S. actions, indicating they show Washington is actively enhancing its strategic offensive weapons [2] - Shoigu suggested immediate preparations for comprehensive nuclear testing in Russia, with potential tests to occur in the New Siberian Islands "in the short term" [2] Group 2 - Other Russian military and intelligence officials emphasized the "seriousness" of the situation but noted the ambiguity of Trump's statements and the lack of clarification from the U.S. [2] - The head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service reported that the Russian ambassador in Washington sought comments from the U.S. National Security Council and State Department, but both reportedly avoided substantive responses [2] - Prior to Trump's announcement, Putin had declared tests of two nuclear-powered delivery platforms, indicating that these tests were non-nuclear and involved delivery systems rather than nuclear warheads [2]

Gold Market - The gold market shows signs of a potential short-term rebound after a brief decline, with the overall upward trend remaining intact despite short-term disruptions from Fed Chair Powell's speech [1] - The resolution of the tariff conflict between the US and China, following a meeting between their leaders, suggests that tariff impacts on the market are no longer a concern [1] - Increased global security risks are anticipated due to Trump's announcement to resume nuclear tests, which may lead to a new arms race, thus elevating market risk aversion and driving funds into gold [1] - Technically, gold has formed a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential stop to the decline, with support at $3951 and resistance at $4015 [1] Oil Market - The oil market remains weak, with a decline in US crude oil inventories failing to reverse the downward trend in oil prices, reflecting low market confidence [2] - For the week ending October 24, API crude oil inventories fell by 4.02 million barrels, and EIA inventories dropped by 6.858 million barrels, significantly exceeding market expectations [2] - Despite a preliminary trade agreement between the US and China alleviating concerns over demand shrinkage, oil prices did not respond positively, indicating a focus on actual market reactions [2] - Technically, oil prices are under pressure, with resistance at $60.50 despite a small daily gain [2] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index experienced a short-term spike due to hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell but subsequently retreated, maintaining a bearish technical outlook [3] - The Fed's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was accompanied by Powell's hawkish stance, creating uncertainty about future monetary policy direction [3] - The dollar index is facing significant resistance from long-term moving averages, with a potential short-term rebound focus [4] Japanese Market - The Nikkei 225 index has shown a steady upward trend, supported by moving averages, although caution is advised regarding potential market peaks [5] - Short-term corrections are likely, with support at 51150 [5] Copper Market - The copper market has seen a slight daily gain, but prices are approaching previous highs, indicating potential resistance [6] - A short-term adjustment is expected, with support at $5.10 [6] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the second consecutive rate cut, although Powell downplayed the likelihood of further cuts in December [7] - The Fed announced the end of its balance sheet reduction program effective December 1, which may lead to increased liquidity in the banking system [8] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% for the sixth consecutive meeting [8]

Core Viewpoint - The new U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff, General Kenneth F. Wilsbach, warns that China's nuclear arsenal is expected to grow significantly, reaching 1,500 warheads by 2030, which would match the levels of the U.S. and Russia [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Nuclear Arsenal Growth - China's nuclear warheads have increased from approximately 300 in 2020 to 600 today, with projections indicating a rise to 1,500 by 2030 [6][7]. - In comparison, the U.S. and Russia each possess around 1,700 deployed warheads, with 1,500 on intercontinental nuclear delivery systems [6]. Strategic Implications - The expansion and modernization of China's nuclear capabilities will enhance its ability to target the U.S. mainland, which is a primary reason for the investments made during the Trump administration [6][7]. - Wilsbach highlighted that China's diverse nuclear forces, ranging from low-yield precision strike missiles to multi-megaton intercontinental ballistic missiles, provide the Chinese leadership with various options during conflict escalation [7]. Military Context - The increasing number, types, ranges, and complexities of missiles produced by the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force pose a growing threat to U.S. Air Force assets and facilities [7]. - Wilsbach's background includes extensive experience in air combat, having flown over 6,000 hours in various aircraft, and he has been involved in operations in Iraq and Afghanistan [7]. U.S.-China Military Relations - Wilsbach has previously indicated that the U.S. needs to create challenges for China as it approaches the U.S. as a competitor [8]. - The Chinese government maintains that its nuclear strategy is defensive and aims to keep its nuclear arsenal at the minimum level necessary for national security [9].