据路透社获取并审阅的一份提交给国会的文件显示，美国总统特朗普告知国会，他正在推动与沙特达成 一项民用核协议，该协议不包含美国长期以来声称能确保沙特不会发展核武器的防扩散保障措施。 共和党人特朗普与民主党人前总统拜登均曾与沙特合作，推动该国建设首批民用核电站。 这一进展出现之际，正值美俄最后一项战略武器限制条约本月初到期，全球担忧爆发新一轮核军备竞 赛。 军控组织、许多民主党人及部分资深共和党人——包括曾在参议院任职的国务卿马尔科・鲁比奥 （Marco Rubio）——坚持认为，任何协议都必须设置护栏，包括沙特不得拥有铀浓缩或乏燃料后处理 能力（这是获取核武器的潜在途径），历届美国政府也提出过同样要求。 他们还坚持要求沙特同意所谓的《附加议定书》，该议定书赋予联合国国际原子能机构对一国核活动进 行广泛、更深入监督的权力，例如对未申报地点进行突击检查的权力。 "如果他们拥有核武器，我们也必须拥有。"王储2023年接受福克斯新闻采访时表示，拥有核武器"出于 安全原因，也为了平衡中东地区的力量，但我们不希望看到这种情况"。 白宫与国务院未立即回应置评请求。沙特驻华盛顿大使馆也未立即回应置评请求。 倡导组织军控协会（A ...

【文/观察者网 王一】在《新削减战略武器条约》日前到期失效后，美国就再次开始污蔑中国进行核试 验，企图为自己重启此类行动找借口。当地时间2月17日，特朗普政府一名官员又炒作此事，遭到中国 和俄罗斯驳斥。 美国国务院负责军控和防扩散事务的助理国务卿克里斯托弗·耶奥 美联社 据英国路透社18日报道，中国驻美国使馆发言人刘鹏宇通过邮件回应称，美方关于中国进行核试验的指 控"完全没有根据"，是"为恢复美国自身核试验寻找借口的政治操作"。 刘鹏宇直言："这是追求核霸权、规避自身核裁军责任的政治操纵行为。"他还呼吁美方重申五个核武器 国家在核试验方面的承诺，维护全球反核试共识，并采取切实措施保障国际核裁军和防扩散体系。 就美国所谓中国在2020年曾开展核试验的说法，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫表示，"我们听到了许多 关于某些试验的说法，其中也提到了俄罗斯联邦和中国。俄罗斯和中国均未进行任何核试验。我们也知 道，中华人民共和国代表已坚决驳斥了这些说法。情况就是这样"。 《全面禁止核试验条约》组织筹委会临时技秘处执行秘书弗洛伊德17日也指出，现有数据不足以证实美 方指控。 弗洛伊德援引数据说，哈萨克斯坦的PS23地震站隶属于该 ...

新华社北京2月14日电美国和俄罗斯之间最后一份军控条约《新削减战略武器条约》2月5日到期失效， 引发国际社会普遍担忧。联合国秘书长古特雷斯警告，该条约失效发生在"最糟糕的时刻"，动用核武器 的风险正处于数十年来最高水平。如果处置不当，《条约》的终止恐将引发美俄新一轮核军备竞赛，直 接威胁全球战略稳定。继续推进核军控进程、维护全球安全已刻不容缓。 长期以来，《新削减战略武器条约》在限制美俄两国部署核弹头和载具数量、维护全球战略稳定、增进 大国互信方面发挥了重要作用。这一条约的失效，意味着美俄两个超级核大国生产和部署核武器将不再 受任何条约限制，核查机制的终结意味着战略透明度下降、误判风险上升。在当前地缘政治冲突频发、 大国博弈日趋激烈的背景下，拆除这一"安全阀"可能引发新一轮不受限制的军备竞赛，给全球和平与发 展投下长长的阴影。 作者: 金正 军控机制是守护人类共同安全的"护栏"。面对《新削减战略武器条约》失效后的真空期，当务之急是美 方必须停止甩锅推责，以负责任方式处理该条约后续安排，早日恢复同俄战略稳定对话，这是一个大国 应有的样子，也是国际社会的普遍期待。 来源：新华社 从历史上看，美国为谋求其绝对军事优 ...

Group 1 - The expiration of the New START treaty on February 5 marks a significant shift in global nuclear disarmament, moving from a phase of reduction to one of potential escalation [1][2] - The U.S. plans to increase its nuclear arsenal, with a projected budget increase from $756 billion to $946 billion over the next decade, representing a growth of over 25% [2] - The U.S. is also pursuing the "Iron Dome" initiative to develop an unconstrained missile defense system, which could provoke a new arms race as other nations enhance their nuclear capabilities in response [2][3] Group 2 - The New START treaty, originally signed in 2010, limited both the U.S. and Russia to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 delivery vehicles, but relations have deteriorated significantly since the Ukraine conflict [3][4] - Russia has shifted its nuclear policy from a no-first-use stance to a more aggressive posture, developing new strategic weapons like the "Zircon" and "Poseidon" to counter NATO's conventional advantages [5][6] - The U.S. has not committed to a no-first-use policy, which raises the nuclear threshold and complicates the strategic landscape [4][5] Group 3 - The U.S. is seeking to involve China in nuclear negotiations, but China maintains its position of a defensive nuclear strategy and will not participate in arms races [7][8] - The introduction of new technologies and high-survivability weapons complicates future arms control negotiations, as the U.S. continues to increase its nuclear capabilities [7][8] - The current state of nuclear relations reflects a breakdown of strategic trust and frameworks, leading to a more dangerous global environment than during the Cold War [8]

2月5日，随着美俄《新削减战略武器条约》正式到期，全球最后一个限制核武器部署的条约宣告失效， 两个拥有全球近90%核武器大国之间失去了最后一道核军控"护栏"。 这引发国际社会对核军备竞赛和核扩散问题的普遍担忧。联合国秘书长古特雷斯更是直言，动用核武器 的风险正处于数十年来最高水平。 半个多世纪以来，世界首次陷入了一个没有任何条约限制全球两大核武库的状态。 俄方早早提议"续约"，美方始终沉默以对，却转头喊话中国加入核裁军谈判，他们意欲何为？ 三个问题需要关注。 陆基方面，"民兵-3"洲际弹道导弹是美军现役唯一陆基战略核武器，于20世纪70年代列装美军，按计 划，美国将用"哨兵"洲际导弹逐步取代"民兵3"洲际导弹，并翻新地下发射井；海基方面，"哥伦比 亚"级战略核潜艇将替换现役"俄亥俄"级战略核潜艇；空基核方面，美国空军现装备有B-2和B-52H轰炸 机在逐步更新，预计将采购B-21远程轰炸机以更新核打击能力。 2025年5月，美国总统特朗普还发布"金穹"导弹防御系统发展规划，声称"金穹"将与美国现有导弹防御 能力整合。一旦完全建成，将能够拦截从世界其他地方甚至太空发射的导弹。 △2025年5 月9日，俄罗斯首都 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the U.S. and Russia raises concerns about a potential new arms race and threats to global strategic stability as no agreement for extension or replacement has been reached [2][8]. Summary by Sections Treaty Overview - The New START treaty, signed in 2010, aimed to limit the number of strategic nuclear weapons held by the U.S. and Russia, capping deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 and deployed delivery systems at 700 [3]. - The treaty included verification mechanisms such as on-site inspections and data exchanges, enhancing transparency and reducing the risk of accidental conflict [3]. Current Status and Responses - Russia's President Putin suggested a voluntary limitation of weapons to treaty limits for at least one year post-expiration, but the U.S. has not officially responded to this proposal [4]. - Analysts note that the treaty's continuation is complicated by a lack of trust between the two nations, exacerbated by the deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations due to the Ukraine conflict [6]. Challenges to Renewal - The U.S. perception of threats has evolved, with a focus on advanced conventional weapons and hypersonic systems, leading to a diminished interest in traditional arms control frameworks [6]. - Domestic political factors in the U.S., including skepticism from the Republican party and previous administration's push for new multilateral agreements, contribute to the challenges in extending the treaty [6][7]. Implications of Treaty Expiration - The end of the treaty could lead to a significant increase in nuclear arsenals, with projections suggesting that the number of deployed nuclear warheads could exceed 6,000 within a decade [8]. - The absence of constraints may complicate crisis management and increase the risk of miscalculations, heightening global strategic risks [8]. Call for New Arrangements - Experts emphasize the need for new arms control measures or trust-building initiatives to prevent escalation and maintain international security [9].

这个世界，最不缺的便是那些始料未及和出乎意料的局面。在美伊谈判紧张之际，特朗普却再次释放出动武的信号，美国大军的集结让中东局势愈发剑拔弩 张，然而与此同时，美国本土的局势也悄然发生了变革。在这一关键时刻，美国发生了五件值得关注的大事，每一件都牵动着未来局势的走向。 首先，特朗普的总统宝座似乎摇摇欲坠，他在压力下下达了撤退的命令。4日，美国边境事务主管霍曼宣布，根据特朗普的指示，约700名移民执法人员将立 即撤离明尼苏达州。这一举措是基于明尼苏达州政府和地方执法部门同意加强与移民和海关执法局（ICE）的合作，决定将被捕移民移交给地方部门。然 而，霍曼强调，这并不意味着特朗普政府削弱了应对暴力和敌对事件的执法力量，仍将保持必要的执法部署，准备应对潜在的风险。同日，特朗普也就移民 问题作出了回应，表示将在未来的执法行动中采取更加温和的方式。这无疑是针对明尼苏达州移民问题升级做出的最新调整。此前，由于移民执法人员的枪 杀事件，特朗普在移民政策上做出了调整。尽管撤退了700名执法人员，但考虑到原本部署的3000多人，仍有2300多人继续驻扎在明尼苏达州。这次撤离， 只是对局势的一种妥协，然而能否真正缓解当地的紧张局势， ...

Core Points - The New START treaty, the last existing agreement limiting nuclear weapons between Russia and the U.S., is set to expire on February 5, 2026, highlighting its critical importance as other nuclear treaties have been abandoned [1][2] - The treaty, signed in 2010, limits both countries to 1,550 nuclear warheads and a maximum of 700 deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers [2] - The treaty was extended for five years in 2021, but recent tensions have led to Russia suspending its participation in verification mechanisms and expressing a willingness to take military countermeasures [2][4] Group 1 - The New START treaty is the only remaining agreement that includes notification, verification, and compliance mechanisms between the U.S. and Russia, who together hold 87% of the world's nuclear weapons [1] - Russia's Foreign Ministry announced a temporary withdrawal from the treaty's verification mechanisms in August 2022, citing U.S. actions that undermine mutual trust [2] - In February 2023, President Putin announced Russia's suspension of participation in the treaty, although the Kremlin stated that Russia would still adhere to the treaty's limits on nuclear weapons [2][4] Group 2 - The relationship between Trump and Putin was initially seen as potentially beneficial for treaty renewal, but Trump's later stance on nuclear testing raised concerns [3] - Analysts suggest that Russia's strong rhetoric may be a strategy to negotiate from a position of strength, as nuclear weapons serve primarily as a deterrent [5] - The U.S. is reportedly negotiating with Russia to continue adhering to the treaty, with discussions taking place in Abu Dhabi [4] Group 3 - Trump's administration aims to include China in a new nuclear arms control treaty, rather than extending the New START treaty [6] - China's stance on nuclear weapons is characterized by a commitment to a defensive strategy and a refusal to engage in an arms race, maintaining its nuclear capabilities at a minimum level [6] - The U.S. may need to revert to bilateral negotiations with Russia on nuclear arms control, given the complexities of involving China [7] Group 4 - Criticism of Trump's approach to nuclear arms control has emerged from U.S. lawmakers, who argue that his administration has neglected this critical area [8] - The UN Secretary-General has expressed concern over the lack of binding constraints on the nuclear arsenals of the two countries, warning of a potential new arms race [8] - The expiration of the New START treaty is viewed as a significant threat to global strategic stability, with fears that it could lead to a breakdown in the international nuclear arms control framework [8]

2月5日，成了一个至关重要的时刻。美俄之间的最后一项核军控条约即将到期，50多年来的核军控框架会被打破，核大国之间再也没有约束，是否意味着我 们即将步入一个无序的核时代？就在这关键时刻，俄乌战场也传来了最新的消息。一周的停火协议刚刚结束，俄罗斯的轰炸就再次展开，而特朗普居然称赞 普京履行了承诺，言辞不禁让人感到更为困惑。与此同时，美国国内局势也一片混乱，美联储主席提名问题引发了激烈的政治斗争，民主党和共和党在这个 问题上的对立愈加激烈，场面一度失控。 首先谈谈最让人揪心的事情——《新削减战略武器条约》马上就要失效了。可能有些人会认为这只是美俄之间的事情，但其实，这直接关系到整个世界的安 全。毕竟，美俄两国掌握着全球90%以上的核武器，而这个条约一旦失效，意味着两大核大国将彻底解绑，双方将有可能展开一场全新的核军备竞赛。美国 前总统奥巴马对此十分担忧，他在社交平台X上发文警告，如果国会没有及时采取行动，这几十年的外交努力就会付诸东流，甚至可能引发新一轮的核军备 竞赛，全球的安全形势也会因此更加不稳。 对于乌克兰民众来说，这一周的停火几乎是雪中送炭。当时的严寒天气已经让许多能源设施瘫痪，民众连基本的取暖都成了问题 ...

" 凛冬将至 " 俄外交部网站在当地时间4日晚发表声明说，俄总统普京建议，俄美《新削减战略武器条约》到期后至少一年内，缔约方自愿将相关武器限制在条 约规定的上限。但俄方尚未收到美方通过双边渠道对俄方建议的任何官方回应，美方的公开表态也未表明其愿遵循俄方提出的"战略进攻性武器行 动程序"。 声明强调，在当前形势下，俄方认为缔约方不再受该条约的任何义务或对等声明约束，与此同时，俄方将负责任和审慎行事，在细致分析美国军 事政策和整体战略环境的基础上，制定自身的战略进攻性武器方针。 声明还说，俄方准备采取果断的军事技术反制措施，应对国家安全面临的潜在威胁。如果未来"具备开展类似协作的必要条件"，俄方仍愿在平等 互利对话基础上，寻求通过政治外交途径实现战略局势全面稳定。 "凛冬将至。"俄联邦安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫4日晚在社交媒体上发布图文称，条约到期意味着，自1972年以来，苏联或俄罗斯同美国之间首次 在限制战略核力量的条约方面"出现空白"，所有条约"都已是过去式"。 古特雷斯4日表示，冷战及后冷战时期，俄美间的核军控构筑了战略稳定，并与其他措施相结合，避免了灾难性误判。《新削减战略武器条约》失 效发生在最糟糕的时刻 ...