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农业反内卷
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华泰证券:农业“反内卷”初见成效 建议关注农牧龙头
Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that the "anti-involution" policy is effectively reducing pig production capacity, leading to a stable pig price outlook for the year, while low-cost companies are expected to achieve good profitability [1] Group 1: Pig Farming Industry - In July, the national breeding sow inventory showed a negative month-on-month change, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs continued to decline [1] - The average prices of national pigs and white feather chicken in major production areas fell year-on-year by 4.24% and 6.26% respectively in the first half of 2025 [1] - Leading breeding companies have achieved significant year-on-year performance growth due to excellent cost control and advantages in products and channels [1] Group 2: Financial Performance and Investment Outlook - Some leading agricultural and animal husbandry companies have entered a "high-quality" development stage, demonstrating strong profitability and cash flow capabilities [1] - New capital expenditures have significantly decreased, with some leading companies' capital expenditures in 2024 being lower than fixed asset depreciation [1] - There is an increased emphasis on shareholder returns among leading agricultural and animal husbandry companies, with a noticeable rise in dividend rates, highlighting long-term dividend value [1] Group 3: Market Trends - Recent price recovery in white chicken is anticipated to continue, driven by ongoing capacity reduction due to long-term industry losses [1] - The report suggests ongoing attention to the breeding sector, particularly companies with low-cost and comprehensive profitability advantages, as well as those with increasing dividend value [1]