猪鸡价格冰火两重天，玉米景气继续提升 [Table_Industry] 农业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：猪鸡价格年后冰火两重天。种植：看好种植景气度提升。宠物: 汇率因素影响 短期出口表现，看好国内市场增长。 投资要点： [关注原油价格波动对油脂的影响。 Table_Summary] 投资建议：生猪推荐标的：牧原股份、温氏股份；后周期推荐标的：科前生 物、海大集团。农产品产业链推荐标的：晨光生物、诺普信、国投丰乐，相 关标的：康农种业、苏垦农发、北大荒。宠物推荐标的：乖宝宠物、中宠股 份、瑞普生物、佩 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The sustainability of the far - month contract rise requires near - month inventory reduction, and the policy regulation and the culling of reproductive sows from March to May will be decisive for the future market trend [3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Before the Spring Festival, the spot price of soybeans in the Northeast production area rose strongly, with the price of 39% protein commercial beans in some areas exceeding 2.3 yuan per catty. The remaining soybean inventory at the grass - roots level is low, and soybean trade is expected to fully resume after the Lantern Festival. After the holiday, market players have a general need to replenish stocks, so the price of domestic soybeans is still supported in the short term. However, the short - term over - rise of the soybean futures before the festival has led to a negative basis with the spot, which restricts the increase to some extent. Pay attention to the auction announcement of state - reserve imported soybeans next week. Overall, the low point of soybean prices has passed, and the subsequent trend will be more of an oscillating upward one [1] Corn - The Shandong and North China markets have seen a pre - emptive rise. Affected by the slow recovery of logistics after the festival and the incomplete start of grass - roots grain sales, the arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises has remained low, with only more than a hundred vehicles arriving in Shandong in the morning. Enterprises have to raise prices to ensure daily production and replenish post - holiday inventory. In the short term, the low point of corn prices may still fluctuate, but since the stage of the greatest supply pressure has passed, the downside space is relatively limited. If there is a decline and adjustment, it is advisable to consider actively replenishing stocks or buying [1] Egg - Currently, the inventory at all links has accumulated to a certain extent, while the downstream demand is in the early stage of recovery. In the short term, the egg price may remain weakly fluctuating near the opening price, and all parties will mainly focus on digesting inventory. From the supply side, the number of culled laying hens in February may be greater than the supply of newly - laid hens, so the inventory of laying hens in production may decline to a certain extent, but the absolute value is still at a high level, providing limited support for prices. Since the pricing difference of contracts after March has been obvious, the driving force of this slight decline in inventory has been basically exhausted, and further clarity on culling hens is needed for eggs to have more upward - driving forces [2] Pig - Official data shows that the inventory of reproductive sows in December was 39.61 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 million, continuing the trend of capacity reduction; while the inventory of reproductive sows in sample enterprises of Zhuochuang increased to 6.7123 million in January, an increase of 0.0353 million, indicating that large - scale farms have slightly replenished at the low level. The survival rate of piglets has dropped to 93.73%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points, possibly affected by winter diseases, posing a potential pressure on the supply of piglets in spring. In terms of slaughter supply, the pig inventory in January decreased to 56.5446 million, a decrease of 0.3085 million; the monthly slaughter volume was 13.149 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5704 million, which is in line with the seasonal characteristic of the slowdown in slaughter during the Spring Festival holiday. The slaughter weight has not changed much, and the supply structure has not undergone extreme adjustments [2]

中新网杭州2月25日电 题：浙江文艺助力山区海岛县高质量发展"三重奏" 作者 曹丹 孙琳茹 近日，浙江展览馆内一处布景吸引观众驻足：墙面上的国画描绘的林下灵芝和铁皮石斛生机盎然，墙面 下的展柜里陈列着由灵芝和石斛制成的各类产品。 2018年，浙江省文联正式结对帮扶位于浙江西南部的山区小村——丽水市龙泉市岩樟乡岱岭村。彼时的 岱岭村，常住人口仅50余人且多为老人，基础设施薄弱。 "我们第一次去的时候，村与村之间很多路都还没有修好。"浙江省文联组织联络处处长高勤英回忆道。 面对这一情况，浙江省文联充分发挥组织优势和人才资源，迈出了帮扶的第一步——基础设施攻坚。多 渠道筹措资金160万元修筑乡间公路，打通了岱岭村发展的"微循环"。 同时，依托浙江省美术家协会、浙江省书法家协会、浙江省摄影家协会以及浙江画院、浙江省油画院、 浙江书法院的人才资源优势，帮扶团队将目光投向了闲置资源的盘活。闲置的乡村小学摇身一变，改造 成了可容纳百人的"岩樟乡浙西南红色研学基地"，与"柳山头村艺术家工作室""中国工农红军挺进师师 部驻地旧址"串联成线，形成了组团式发展的文旅新格局。 展厅内一景。曹丹 摄 这是浙江省文联多年来深耕山区海岛县 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 重要新闻 2. 商务部：中方愿与美方在将于近期举行的第6轮中美经贸磋商中开展坦诚磋商 商务部新闻发言人24日就美近期关税调整举措答记者问时表示，中方正密切关注并将全面评估美方相关 举措，后续将视情适时决定调整针对美方原芬太尼关税和对等关税的反制措施。中方将保留采取一切必 要措施的权利，坚决捍卫自身合法权益。中方愿与美方在将于近期举行的第6轮中美经贸磋商中开展坦 诚磋商。 3. 国常会：进一步释放银发消费需求，打造一批银发消费新场景新业态 国务院总理李强2月24日主持召开国务院常务会议。会议指出，我国银发经济潜力很大，要完善支持举 措、强化政策落实，促进养老事业和养老产业发展，为应对人口老龄化提供有力支撑。要进一步释放银 发消费需求，提升消费能力，发挥消费补贴等政策牵引作用，打造一批银发消费新场景新业态。要推动 普惠养老服务供给提质扩面，健全分级分类、普惠可及、覆盖城乡、持续发展的养老服务体系，更好保 障老有所养。要加强养老机构安全管理，及时排查化解风险隐患，严厉打击虚假宣传、非法集资和养老 诈骗等行为，切实维护老年群体合法权益。 (央视新闻) 4. 大疆起诉美 ...

国泰海通发布研报称，2026年1月，淘天宠物与炼丹炉大数据联合发布《宠物行业新品趋势报告》显 示，时令节日仪式感消费已成为"它经济"的核心增长极，"新年宠物礼盒"这一搜索关键词在天猫平台上 的同比增速便已经达到了20%+。根据天猫数据，宠物过年衣服销量实现330%的大幅增长，宠物年夜饭 实现290%的增长。此外，春节后，华南与华北区域举办规模领先的宠物展会，国内头部品牌预计在展 会上推出新品，值得关注。 养殖：春节后预期猪价进入淡季节奏 春节后预期猪价进入淡季节奏。春节后预计需求淡而供给多，预期价格进入淡季节奏。事实上腊月小年 后，春节备货已经开始逐步下降，接下来节后的屠宰场正月初七和初八正式开工后，价格将进入低价和 养殖亏损阶段。关注低猪价下的产能去化情况。 标的方面 生猪推荐标的：牧原股份(002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)；后周期推荐标的：科前生物 (688526.SH)、海大集团(002311.SZ)。农产品产业链推荐标的：晨光生物(300138.SZ)、诺普信 (002215.SZ)、荃银高科（维权）(300087.SZ)、国投丰乐(000713.SZ)，相关标的：康农种业 (30 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pet economy sector, highlighting its rapid growth during the Spring Festival [4][7]. Core Insights - The pet consumption during the Spring Festival has seen significant growth, with a 20%+ year-on-year increase in searches for "New Year pet gift boxes" on Tmall. The sales of pet clothing surged by 330%, and pet New Year's dinners increased by 290% [7]. - The report emphasizes the comprehensive nature of pet services, with a 46% month-on-month increase in pet boarding demand. The expansion of pet transport services on high-speed trains and airlines is also noted [7]. - Upcoming pet exhibitions in March are expected to further stimulate market interest, with major brands likely to launch new products [7]. Summary by Sections Important Industry Data Overview - The agricultural sector index stands at 2,858.1, with a year-on-year increase of 14.28%. The wholesale price index for agricultural products is at 129.6, reflecting a 4.95% year-on-year increase [10]. - The average price of live pigs is 12.3 yuan/kg, down 15.81% year-on-year, while the average price of piglets is 471.0 yuan/head, down 25.24% year-on-year [10]. Pig Farming Sector - The report anticipates a seasonal decline in pig prices post-Spring Festival, with expectations of low prices leading to potential losses in farming [5][12]. - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional recommendations in the agricultural product supply chain [5]. Poultry Sector - The report discusses the white feather broiler market, noting a decrease in chick prices and stable prices for broiler meat [19][20]. - The average price of broiler chicks is reported at 2.4 yuan/chick, with a 4.35% increase month-on-month [10]. Feed Sector - The report indicates stable feed prices, with corn prices at 2,372.2 yuan/ton and soybean meal prices at 3,167.7 yuan/ton [10][30]. - The analysis highlights the fluctuations in import prices for soybeans and corn, impacting the feed sector [32]. Key Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with Muyuan Foods projected at 2.54 yuan for 2025 and 4.81 yuan for 2026, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [36]. - Other companies such as Wens Foodstuffs and Petty Holdings also receive "Overweight" ratings, indicating strong growth potential [36].

郭晨凯 制图 上证指数2025年2月5日以来走势图 沪指蛇年上涨25.58% 机构判断节后科技主线有望回归 ◎记者 费天元 东方证券研报认为，中芯国际AI、存储、中高端应用相关的订单呈现增加态势，展望未来，公司有望 凭借在BCD、模拟、存储、MCU、中高端显示驱动等细分领域中的技术储备与领先优势，在本轮行业 发展周期中保持有利位置。 另有多家存储芯片企业2025年业绩预喜。根据业绩预告，模组龙头江波龙预计2025年净利润为12.5亿元 至15.5亿元，同比增长151%至211%；德明利预计2025年实现净利润6.5亿元至8亿元，同比增长85%至 128%。佰维存储、朗科科技等均预告业绩大幅增长或实现扭亏。 除存储芯片外，昨日计算机设备、养殖等2025年业绩向好板块均获得资金关注，相关龙头公司股价上 扬。展望后市，3月开始上市公司年报进入密集披露期，机构普遍提示聚焦绩优方向。 中信证券研报表示，根据业绩预告，2025年A股上市公司业绩预喜比例扩大，科技、金融、周期是最大 亮点，整体呈现"科技驱动、外需支撑、金融压仓"的结构性特征。其中，基础化工、电子、医药、有色 金属、机械等行业业绩超预期个股数量领先，汽车、电 ...

"今天可是咱们村最热闹的一天！"村民张学仁脸上洋溢着笑容。和他一样，许多村民早早来到广场，期 待这场属于他们自己的"村晚"。 活动在激昂的舞蹈《中国龙》中拉开序幕。紧接着，现场迎来第一个高潮——"道德银行"积分兑换颁奖 环节。黄海堂、祁志源、包福平等23户全乡积分最高的"年度家庭"依次上台接过荣誉证书和奖品，成为 现场最受瞩目的文明之星。 "平时打扫村道、帮助邻居都能攒分，没想到年底真能换到东西！"黄海堂朴实的话语，道出了"道德银 行"的温暖与力量。 元古堆村的"小年" 新定西·定西日报记者 何 强 张莉芳 李胤婷 腊月二十三，农历小年。渭源县田家河乡元古堆村新时代文明实践广场上，锣鼓喧天，笑语盈盈。全村 老少齐聚一堂，共同参与一场别开生面的"道德银行"积分兑换暨"我们的节日·春节"文艺汇演。 舞蹈《如愿》《欢天喜地庆丰收》舞出振兴喜悦，小品《穷人与富人》、戏曲《王桂花防线》则将传统 文化与当代价值生动融合，寓教于乐，引来掌声阵阵。 广场一侧，同样暖意融融。县乡医疗队伍开展义诊，为群众送上健康关怀；政策宣传台前，森林防火、 禁毒反诈、惠农政策等讲解细致深入，受到乡亲欢迎。 这场文艺飘香的背后，是元古堆村蒸蒸日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][6][8] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February 2026, the configuration suggestion is to dig for opportunities in the pro - cyclical market, emphasizing both the chemical and agricultural sectors. The agricultural sector is expected to have price - rising prospects due to emerging economies' industrialization and geopolitical situations. Currently, funds are under - allocating to the agricultural sector, and the agricultural sector, with its mid - cap blue - chip characteristics, is expected to resonate with the CSI 500 Index [2][8] - In 2025, the agricultural sector had a lackluster performance with significant structural differentiation. Pig farming was under pressure, while beef cattle farming showed good performance. Fund managers actively adjusted the sector's structure and made left - hand side layouts in the breeding sector [6][15] - For 2026, fund managers are optimistic about the agricultural sector, believing there are structural opportunities and the possibility of a reversal, especially in the breeding sector such as pig and beef cattle farming [6][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2026 February Configuration Suggestion - Configuration strategy: Focus on the chemical and agricultural sectors in the pro - cyclical market. The agricultural sector is favored because of price - rising opportunities from emerging economies' industrialization and geopolitical situations. Currently, active equity mutual funds allocate less than 0.5% to the agricultural sector, and the scale proportion of agricultural - related ETFs is also low. The agricultural and forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors, with mid - cap blue - chip features, may resonate with the CSI 500 Index [2][8] - Recommended funds: Suggest paying attention to funds such as YinHua Agriculture Industry A, Agriculture Select LOF, etc. YinHua Agriculture Industry A holds the most agricultural - sector stocks and mainly allocates to the breeding sector, with a high proportion of holdings in pig and poultry breeding companies [2][9][10] 2025Q4 Quarterly Report on Agricultural Fund Core Viewpoints 2025 Agricultural Sector Market - Overall performance: The agricultural sector had a lackluster performance with structural differentiation. Although the agricultural index rose slightly in Q4, sub - sectors like breeding and feed declined, while the agro - chemical sector performed well due to supply - side adjustments [6][15] - Key sub - sectors: Pig farming was under pressure as pig prices hovered at the bottom, and the industry entered a new cycle of capacity reduction. Price recovery is expected in the second half of 2026. Beef cattle farming was outstanding, with beef prices rebounding significantly from the bottom, large - scale and long - term capacity reduction, and good stock price performance. Consumption - related sectors were sluggish [6][15][17] 2025 Agricultural Sector Configuration - Configuration ideas: Fund managers actively adjusted the sector's structure and made left - hand side layouts in the breeding sector. They moderately increased holdings in leading enterprises during the trough of the breeding industry and concentrated their allocations on excellent companies in various sub - fields [17] - Fund types: Agricultural theme funds continued to focus on the breeding industry chain and adjusted their positions according to the cycle. Some general consumption funds slightly increased their allocations to the agricultural sector with low current valuations in Q4 [18][19] 2026 Agricultural Sector Outlook - Overall outlook: Fund managers are optimistic about the agricultural sector in 2026, believing there are structural opportunities and the possibility of a reversal. They emphasize the price - rising foundation at a low base and the reversal potential after capacity reduction. They are particularly optimistic about the upward cycle of the beef cattle/animal husbandry industry [20] - Pig farming opportunity: The capacity reduction that started in the second half of 2025, combined with policy constraints and deep losses, will enable the pig farming sector to reach a cycle configuration point or price reversal in 2026, especially in the second half of the year [20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products including soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, corn starch, soybeans, live pigs, and eggs, and provides corresponding operation suggestions based on supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and price trends [3][4][5]. - For most products, it is recommended to consider the market situation before and after the Spring Festival, such as waiting for opportunities to go long after the festival for some products, and adopting a wait - and - see or short - term operation strategy before the festival [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment | Sector | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Outlook | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 05 | Pre - holiday stocking is ending, and the market is expected to improve after the holiday. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient. | 4300 - 4310 | 4550 - 4600 | Oscillate strongly | Lightly go long | | | Soybean No.2 05 | Pre - holiday stocking is over. The US soybean market is expected to improve, driving up the domestic soybean market. | 3400 - 3420 | 3550 - 3580 | Oscillate strongly | Wait and see | | Oils | Soybean oil 05 | The US biodiesel policy is expected to be favorable, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean oil are strong. China's soybean oil inventory is low. | 7950 - 8000 | 8560 - 8600 | Stabilize and oscillate | Go long when stabilizing | | | Rapeseed oil 05 | Limited contradictions before the holiday. | 8800 - 8810 | 9390 - 9400 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | | Palm oil 05 | MPOB report is positive, but February's high - frequency data is weak. Supply - demand is supported in Q1. | 8860 - 8880 | 9370 - 9400 | Oscillate | Look for buying opportunities after the holiday | | Protein | Soybean meal 05 | Supply is sufficient, pre - holiday stocking is basically over. The US soybean price is expected to rise, which may boost domestic soybean prices. | 2650 - 2680 | 2800 - 2830 | Oscillate strongly | Lightly go long in the short - term | | | Rapeseed meal 05 | Limited fundamental drivers, driven up by the protein sector. | 2190 - 2200 | 2340 - 2350 | Oscillate | Wait and see or operate within a range | | Energy and By - products | Corn 05 | Spring Festival supply - demand mismatch provides support. Short - term price may oscillate strongly. | 2240 - 2250 | 2350 - 2380 | Oscillate strongly | Go long on dips | | | Corn starch 03 | Follow the cost of corn and oscillate strongly. | 2450 - 2460 | 2620 - 2640 | Oscillate strongly | Wait and see | | Livestock | Live pigs 03 | Feed prices stop falling and rebound, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11000 - 11300 | 12500 - 12800 | Find the bottom through oscillation | Lightly go long | | | Eggs 05 | Newly - opened production decreases + consumption peak season expectation. | 3300 - 3400 | 3650 - 3700 | Find the bottom through oscillation | Wait and see | [10] 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, except for the 3 - 5 spread of corn, where it is recommended to sell short at high prices [11][12]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, protein, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. Part II: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including CNF prices, import duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing margin is zero [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as their operating rates [17][18]. 2. Feed - **Daily Data**: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and import duty - paid costs [18]. - **Weekly Data**: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress data of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises [19]. 3. Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and key market indicators such as production costs, profits, slaughter volume, and inventory [19][20][21][23]. Part III: Fundamental Tracking Charts - It includes a series of charts related to the livestock (live pigs and eggs), oils and oilseeds (palm oil, soybean oil, peanuts), and feed (corn, corn starch, rapeseed, soybean meal) sectors to track the market fundamentals [24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][37][39][40][41][42][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][53][55][56][57][58][59][61][63][64][65][66][68][70][72][73][75][77][79][81][83][88][91][92][93][96][97] Part IV: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides charts related to the options of feed, livestock, and oils, including the historical volatility of various products and the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [89][92][93][94][96][97] Part V: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - It provides charts showing the warehouse receipt quantities of various products such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the live pig and egg indices [98][99][101][103][105][106][107]