农信体系改革

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固定收益专题:区域角度看城农商行风险
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-15 06:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent years, the risks of small and medium - sized banks have gradually increased due to economic transformation, regional development differences, and bank risk events. The central government has emphasized the timely disposal of risks in small and medium - sized financial institutions [1][10]. - The business share and profitability of small and medium - sized banks have declined. Their asset quality has also deteriorated during the rapid expansion period, and they are now gradually digesting historical legacy issues [2][33]. - The operations of urban and rural commercial banks across the country have shown differentiation. Underdeveloped regions generally have higher asset - to - total ratios, and there are differences in asset quality, profitability, and business growth rates among different regions [3]. - The core path for resolving the risks of small and medium - sized banks is the reform of the rural credit system, and the reform process of provincial rural credit unions has accelerated significantly in recent years [4]. - In the disposal of major risk events of small and medium - sized banks, a large amount of public funds are often consumed, and the restoration of the subject's qualifications and regional credit usually takes a long time [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Small and Medium - Sized Bank Risk Resolution Background - **Macro - background**: Since 2010, with China's economic transformation, the profitability of the real economy has declined, and the default rate of small and medium - sized enterprises has increased, leading to a rise in the non - performing loan ratio of small and medium - sized banks from 2010 - 2020. After 2020, macro - factors have put pressure on the asset quality and operations of small and medium - sized banks. Regional economic development imbalances and the limited risk - control capabilities of small and medium - sized banks, along with events such as the Baoshang Bank incident in 2019, have attracted more attention to the risk resolution of small and medium - sized banks [1][10]. - **High concentration of rural commercial bank credit risks**: In 2023, rural financial institutions accounted for 95% of the 3936 banking financial institutions rated by the central bank, and high - risk rural financial institutions accounted for 96% of the total high - risk bank institutions [15]. - **Non - redemption of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds concentrated in urban and rural commercial banks**: All cases of non - redemption of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds occurred in urban and rural commercial banks, especially in small and medium - sized banks in Liaoning, Tianjin, Shandong and other places. Since 2023, the non - redemption ratio has continued to decline, which may indicate an improvement in the capital adequacy of small and medium - sized banks in recent years [17]. 3.2 Operating Conditions of Urban and Rural Commercial Banks - **Overview of the fundamentals of urban and rural commercial banks**: Before 2016, small and medium - sized banks rapidly expanded their scale, but since 2019, their market share has continued to decline. During the rapid expansion period, their asset quality deteriorated, and since 2020, they have gradually digested historical legacy issues. Their profitability has also decreased significantly, and there are differences in capital adequacy among different types of banks [28][33][35]. - **Operating conditions of urban and rural commercial banks in different regions**: The market status of urban and rural commercial banks shows a two - tiered differentiation. Underdeveloped regions and Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui have a high asset - to - total ratio, while developed regions have a low ratio. There are also differences in asset quality, profitability, and business growth rates among different regions. For example, in 2024, the asset quality of urban and rural commercial banks in the three northeastern provinces and the northwest was generally poor, while that in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Beijing, and Shanghai was relatively good [3][38][41]. 3.3 Progress and Plans for the Reform of Provincial Rural Credit Unions in Different Regions - **The reform of the rural credit system is the core path for resolving the risks of small and medium - sized banks**: The reform of provincial rural credit unions is an important part of risk resolution for small and medium - sized banks. Currently, there are two main reform models: the joint - bank model and the unified - legal - person model. The reform process has accelerated significantly in recent years [4][59][62]. - **Cases of rural credit system reform**: Examples include the Zhejiang Rural Commercial United Bank (joint - bank model), Liaoning Rural Commercial Bank (unified - legal - person model), and Henan Rural Commercial Bank (a combination of joint - bank and unified - legal - person models) [64][66]. 3.4 Cases of Risk Disposal of Small and Medium - Sized Banks - **Sources of funds for risk disposal of small and medium - sized banks**: The order of fund use in the financial risk disposal process is the shareholders and actual controllers of the disposed financial institution, market - based funds, the deposit insurance fund, local public resources, and the financial stability protection fund. In recent years, the deposit insurance fund has been widely used in major risk resolution of small and medium - sized banks, and as of July 2025, a total of 530 billion yuan of special bonds for risk resolution of small and medium - sized banks have been issued [69][70][72]. - **Cases of risk disposal of small and medium - sized banks**: After the risk exposure of Baoshang Bank in 2019, risks of small and medium - sized banks in various places broke out concentratedly. Taking Liaoning Rural Commercial Bank and Jinzhou Bank as examples, the causes of risks, disposal plans, and related risks are analyzed [76].