Group 1 - Argentina's corn production for the 2025/26 season is projected at 54.1 million tons, a 1% decrease from previous estimates, with a forecast range of 46.8 to 59.9 million tons due to drought risks in the Pampas region [1] - As of December 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major processing enterprises across 12 regions in the country is 3.378 million tons, reflecting a 4.26% increase [1] - In the main corn-producing states of the U.S., there is a 60% confidence that temperatures will be above historical averages in the next 6-10 days, while 15% of the areas have a high confidence of above-average precipitation [1] Group 2 - Overall, the corn production is increasing this year, but due to a decline in pig inventory and a reduction in egg production, the demand for corn is not optimistic, leading to long-term pressure on corn prices, although short-term prices may remain strong due to farmers holding back on sales [3] - In the short term, there is a mix of seasonal selling pressure and farmer reluctance to sell, along with continued support from downstream inventory building, resulting in fluctuating spot prices; medium-term, seasonal selling pressure will persist before the Spring Festival, limiting the potential for price increases [4] - Long-term pricing logic will focus on substitution and planting costs, with a key emphasis on policy direction [4]

Group 1 - The corn market is experiencing an unusual trend this year, with prices rising contrary to the traditional decline seen in December [1] - Multiple factors contribute to this price increase, including a sharp reduction in imported corn due to global trade tensions and a continuous decline in domestic old grain inventory [1] - The quality issues of new grain, particularly in North China due to persistent rainy weather causing some corn to mold, are key factors driving prices up [1] Group 2 - Demand remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in the inventory of pigs and poultry, leading to a substantial increase in feed demand that supports prices [1] - Recent corn futures prices have seen a notable correction, as rising prices since October have narrowed profit margins for deep processing enterprises, reducing their purchasing willingness [1] - In late December, it is unlikely that the Northeast region will see the usual large-scale grain sales, as farmers are reluctant to sell and prefer to hold onto their stocks due to premium purchasing policies [2]