美国玉米主产州未来6-10日，60%地区有较高的把握认为气温将高于历史中值，15%地区有较高的把握认为降水量将高于历史中值。 消息面 一机构发布的大宗商品研究报告显示，阿根廷2025/26年度玉米产量预计为5410万吨，较前一次预估下调1%，预估区间介于4680-5990万吨，因潘 帕斯草原地区存在干旱风险。 据农产品调研显示，截至2025年12月24日，全国12个地区96家主要玉米加工企业玉米库存总量337.8万吨，增幅4.26%。 总体上看，今年玉米增产，而且明年由于生猪存栏下降蛋鸡也处于去产能的过程中，玉米需求不乐观，长期玉米仍然承压，但中短期由于农户惜 售，价格震荡偏强。 格林大华期货： 短期来看，上有季节性卖压、下有基层惜售情绪+下游持续建库支撑，多空交织下现货价格震荡整理；中期来看，元旦后春节前季节性卖压仍 存，现货上涨空间相对有限。关注下游建库力度、政策粮源拍卖、进口政策导向等，中期维持宽幅区间交易思路；长期来看，仍然维持替代+种 植成本的定价逻辑，重点关注政策导向。 机构观点 银河期货： ...

Group 1 - The corn market is experiencing an unusual trend this year, with prices rising contrary to the traditional decline seen in December [1] - Multiple factors contribute to this price increase, including a sharp reduction in imported corn due to global trade tensions and a continuous decline in domestic old grain inventory [1] - The quality issues of new grain, particularly in North China due to persistent rainy weather causing some corn to mold, are key factors driving prices up [1] Group 2 - Demand remains strong, with significant year-on-year growth in the inventory of pigs and poultry, leading to a substantial increase in feed demand that supports prices [1] - Recent corn futures prices have seen a notable correction, as rising prices since October have narrowed profit margins for deep processing enterprises, reducing their purchasing willingness [1] - In late December, it is unlikely that the Northeast region will see the usual large-scale grain sales, as farmers are reluctant to sell and prefer to hold onto their stocks due to premium purchasing policies [2]