与此同时，专业机构Pro Farmer在年度作物巡查后预测，美国玉米单产将为每英亩182.7蒲式耳。尽管创 下历史纪录，但仍远低于美国农业部此前预估的188.8蒲式耳。 干旱天气及作物病害仍是潜在风险因素，也为价格提供了一定支撑。 受强劲市场需求及低于预期的产量前景持续支撑，美国芝商所玉米期货价格跃升至月内最高水平。 美国农业部数据显示，美国玉米出口需求持续旺盛，在截至8月14日当周，玉米净销量再增280万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for corn [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second-round price increase of corn in the 2024/2025 period has started as expected, and the expectation of new crops is unlikely to prevent the tail-up of old crops [1][3]. - In a normal-yield scenario, the cost of new corn is expected to decline slightly, but there are significant uncertainties related to weather [2]. - The current supply-demand gap of corn has not been filled, and in the medium term, the tight inventory will continue to drive up corn prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gradually Tightening Inventory and the Second-Round Price Increase - The second-round price increase of corn in the 2024/2025 period has started. After the first-round increase, the price entered a wide - range oscillation period. Since mid - April, the price has strengthened again, breaking through the previous resistance level of 2,350 yuan/ton. As of May 7, the closing price of the 07 contract was 2,369 yuan/ton, up about 4% from the annual low of 2,280 yuan/ton [10]. - The expectation that "without large - scale substitution, the real supply gap will emerge in July" may be starting to materialize. Due to a significant decline in imports and a cyclical increase in energy demand, a large amount of substitutes are needed this year. The current wheat situation indicates that large - scale feed substitution will be achieved through the increase in corn prices. Signs of tight inventory are emerging, such as a decline in the inventory of deep - processing enterprises and an improvement in the auction performance of China Grain Reserves Corporation [11]. 2. New Crop Cost and Weather Uncertainties - Sowing: Affected by weather, the sowing of corn in Northeast China has been delayed by 1 - 2 weeks. Although sowing delay is theoretically unfavorable for yield, the overall growing - season weather is more crucial. If the delay is too long, some corn may be replanted with soybeans. Currently, the corn area is not expected to decrease significantly [21]. - Land rent cost: The decline in land rent this year is more moderate than expected and shows regional differentiation. In Heilongjiang, the cost reduction is not obvious, with the northern part remaining basically flat and the central and western parts having a 5% - 10% reduction. In Jilin and Liaoning, the decline is larger than in Heilongjiang but still more moderate year - on - year [2][28]. - Cost in a normal - yield scenario: Taking the median value of the land rent decline in Heilongjiang (-5%) as a reference, in a normal - yield scenario, the new - grain drying cost in Heilongjiang is expected to be about 1,750 yuan/ton, and the port - collection cost is expected to be about 2,010 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of about 60 - 70 yuan/ton. However, if there is a slight reduction in yield (-3%), the cost may remain basically the same year - on - year. The cost of new crops still has uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [25]. 3. New Crop Expectations Unlikely to Hinder Old Crop Tail - Up - In Q3 2025, if there is a game between strong reality and weak expectations, this year is expected to be more similar to 2022/2023. Currently, the overall demand is expected to be good, and the phenomenon of a year - on - year sharp decline in imported grains is difficult to reverse. Therefore, in the face of the game between reality and expectations, this year may be more like 2022/2023, where old crops mainly reflect strong reality before the new crops are listed [33][35]. - The repair of trade profits and the likely realization of wheat's indirect support for corn prices. After the first - round price increase, traders have realized good profits. The view that "the minimum purchase price of wheat will indirectly support corn prices" has become a market consensus, and it is likely to be realized this year. Traders may use "wheat price floor - storage cost" as the bottom anchor for corn [36]. 4. Price Outlook and Investment Suggestions - Price outlook: The increase in corn prices has not attracted a large amount of new supply, and the energy demand is relatively rigid. Therefore, the supply - demand gap of corn has not been filled. In the medium term, the tight inventory will continue to drive up corn prices, and the annual high of the 07 contract is expected to reach about 2,450 yuan/ton. In the short term, concerns about import reserve auctions may suppress the upward momentum of futures prices [36][37]. - Investment suggestions: It is recommended to continue to adopt a mid - line strategy of buying on dips for the 07 contract. Attention is also recommended to be paid to the opportunities of 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spreads [38].