这一反常现象背后存在多重原因。全球贸易摩擦影响下，进口玉米数量出现锐减。国内陈粮库存持续下 降，新粮上市后市场仍维持供需偏紧状态。新粮品质问题成为价格上行的关键因素，华北地区持续阴雨 天气导致部分玉米霉变。东北地区玉米品质相对较好，进一步加剧区域供应压力。 需求端持续发力，生猪、家禽存栏量同比显著增长。饲用需求随之大幅增长，为价格提供支撑。收购政 策提振市场信心，北方降雪推高物流成本。东北货源外运受阻，多重因素共同推动价格持续走高。 上周玉米期货价格出现显著回调。10月以来价格持续上行导致深加工企业利润空间收窄，收购意愿随之 下降。前期企业阶段性补库陆续结束，需求拉动效应减弱。与此同时，市场惜售情绪降温，资金获利了 结需求增加。 玉米市场今年呈现异常态势，传统的"黑12月"价格下跌规律并未如期而至。往年11至12月新粮集中上 市，供应量增加通常导致价格承压。然而今年10月中旬开始，玉米价格却出现逆势上涨走势。 12月下旬东北地区大概率难以出现往年大批量售粮情况。目前东北农户惜售情绪浓厚，溢价收购政策给 农户提供持货信心，进一步延缓售粮节奏。下游虽有需求，但深加工企业和饲料企业对高价粮接受度不 高。即便农户有售 ...

进入12月份，在基层农户惜售、期货盘面上涨、刚需等因素支持下，玉米现货价格整体呈现强势。不 过，通过区域对比来看，不同地区市场也存在"冷热不均"的现象。 后期来看，卓创资讯认为，虽然短期的情绪高涨以及供需错配造成近期玉米行情强势上涨，但本年度玉 米供应增加、终端养殖利润不佳等现实矛盾约束下，后续在情绪降温后，玉米价格有回调风险。 具体来看，11月份至今国内玉米市场价格连续上涨，至12月5日收盘全国玉米均价是2235.64元／吨，月 环比涨幅4.14%，同比涨幅9.06%。新粮上市之际玉米价格逆势上涨，原因或在于基层农户尤其是东北 地区农户的惜售，同时深加工企业、饲料企业存在刚性需求，短期的供需错配局面支撑玉米价格上扬。 此外，玉米期货盘面持续强势也助涨了市场的看涨情绪。 不过卓创资讯实际监测市场发现，尽管玉米价格整体走高，但各方表现并不完全一致。 从区域市场表现看，此番上涨行情的冷热不均情况也同样出现在各个区域上，对比东北玉米均价与华北 玉米市场均价，东北玉米涨幅更加明显，华北行情要相对平缓。 从产业链条上对比来看，玉米价格上涨以及市场偏强的情绪与终端养殖持续亏损形成鲜明对比。11月28 日至12月4日当周， ...

Core Viewpoint - The corn prices in Northeast China are experiencing a slow increase, with the growth rate surpassing that of North China and the national average, primarily due to farmers' reluctance to sell and a slow increase in market supply [1][2][9] Price Trends - As of November 15, the average daily price of corn in Northeast China rose from 2031 CNY/ton to 2051 CNY/ton, an increase of 20 CNY/ton or 0.98%, which is higher than the increases in North China (0.31%) and the national average (0.60%) [2][4] - The price increase is attributed to farmers' reluctance to sell and a slow increase in market supply [2][9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average grain selling progress among farmers in Northeast China was 18% as of November 13, which is 2 percentage points faster than the same period last year [4] - The selling pace varies by region, with Liaoning showing a faster pace due to earlier harvests and higher initial market prices, while Jilin and Heilongjiang are slower due to lower temperatures and favorable storage conditions [4][8] - The port of Jinzhou's corn collection volume has decreased significantly compared to last year, indicating a decline in selling willingness among farmers [4][5] Future Price Expectations - The demand from downstream sectors is expected to increase, with traders actively purchasing and building inventories, which will support market prices [8][9] - The overall market price is projected to rise by 40-60 CNY/ton until mid-December, with a potential slight price correction of around 20 CNY/ton in late December due to increased supply [9] Influencing Factors - The sentiment of farmers and traders regarding selling will likely persist, impacting supply levels [8][9] - The end of wheat planting in North China by the end of November may lead to an increase in farmers' willingness to sell, potentially affecting the demand for Northeast corn [8][9]

与此同时，专业机构Pro Farmer在年度作物巡查后预测，美国玉米单产将为每英亩182.7蒲式耳。尽管创 下历史纪录，但仍远低于美国农业部此前预估的188.8蒲式耳。 干旱天气及作物病害仍是潜在风险因素，也为价格提供了一定支撑。 受强劲市场需求及低于预期的产量前景持续支撑，美国芝商所玉米期货价格跃升至月内最高水平。 美国农业部数据显示，美国玉米出口需求持续旺盛，在截至8月14日当周，玉米净销量再增280万吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for corn [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second-round price increase of corn in the 2024/2025 period has started as expected, and the expectation of new crops is unlikely to prevent the tail-up of old crops [1][3]. - In a normal-yield scenario, the cost of new corn is expected to decline slightly, but there are significant uncertainties related to weather [2]. - The current supply-demand gap of corn has not been filled, and in the medium term, the tight inventory will continue to drive up corn prices [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gradually Tightening Inventory and the Second-Round Price Increase - The second-round price increase of corn in the 2024/2025 period has started. After the first-round increase, the price entered a wide - range oscillation period. Since mid - April, the price has strengthened again, breaking through the previous resistance level of 2,350 yuan/ton. As of May 7, the closing price of the 07 contract was 2,369 yuan/ton, up about 4% from the annual low of 2,280 yuan/ton [10]. - The expectation that "without large - scale substitution, the real supply gap will emerge in July" may be starting to materialize. Due to a significant decline in imports and a cyclical increase in energy demand, a large amount of substitutes are needed this year. The current wheat situation indicates that large - scale feed substitution will be achieved through the increase in corn prices. Signs of tight inventory are emerging, such as a decline in the inventory of deep - processing enterprises and an improvement in the auction performance of China Grain Reserves Corporation [11]. 2. New Crop Cost and Weather Uncertainties - Sowing: Affected by weather, the sowing of corn in Northeast China has been delayed by 1 - 2 weeks. Although sowing delay is theoretically unfavorable for yield, the overall growing - season weather is more crucial. If the delay is too long, some corn may be replanted with soybeans. Currently, the corn area is not expected to decrease significantly [21]. - Land rent cost: The decline in land rent this year is more moderate than expected and shows regional differentiation. In Heilongjiang, the cost reduction is not obvious, with the northern part remaining basically flat and the central and western parts having a 5% - 10% reduction. In Jilin and Liaoning, the decline is larger than in Heilongjiang but still more moderate year - on - year [2][28]. - Cost in a normal - yield scenario: Taking the median value of the land rent decline in Heilongjiang (-5%) as a reference, in a normal - yield scenario, the new - grain drying cost in Heilongjiang is expected to be about 1,750 yuan/ton, and the port - collection cost is expected to be about 2,010 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of about 60 - 70 yuan/ton. However, if there is a slight reduction in yield (-3%), the cost may remain basically the same year - on - year. The cost of new crops still has uncertainties, and attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [25]. 3. New Crop Expectations Unlikely to Hinder Old Crop Tail - Up - In Q3 2025, if there is a game between strong reality and weak expectations, this year is expected to be more similar to 2022/2023. Currently, the overall demand is expected to be good, and the phenomenon of a year - on - year sharp decline in imported grains is difficult to reverse. Therefore, in the face of the game between reality and expectations, this year may be more like 2022/2023, where old crops mainly reflect strong reality before the new crops are listed [33][35]. - The repair of trade profits and the likely realization of wheat's indirect support for corn prices. After the first - round price increase, traders have realized good profits. The view that "the minimum purchase price of wheat will indirectly support corn prices" has become a market consensus, and it is likely to be realized this year. Traders may use "wheat price floor - storage cost" as the bottom anchor for corn [36]. 4. Price Outlook and Investment Suggestions - Price outlook: The increase in corn prices has not attracted a large amount of new supply, and the energy demand is relatively rigid. Therefore, the supply - demand gap of corn has not been filled. In the medium term, the tight inventory will continue to drive up corn prices, and the annual high of the 07 contract is expected to reach about 2,450 yuan/ton. In the short term, concerns about import reserve auctions may suppress the upward momentum of futures prices [36][37]. - Investment suggestions: It is recommended to continue to adopt a mid - line strategy of buying on dips for the 07 contract. Attention is also recommended to be paid to the opportunities of 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 positive spreads [38].