Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Short - term long [1] - Pig: On - the - fence [1] - Egg: On - the - fence [3] Group 2: Core Views - For corn, short - term downstream stocking and strong farmers' reluctance to sell support the strength of northern port spot prices, but there is still seasonal selling pressure after New Year's Day. In the medium - term, a wide - range trading idea is maintained, and in the long - term, the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost should be focused on, with emphasis on policy orientation [1] - For pigs, short - term factors support the pig price to be strong, but there is a risk of short - term spot price correction after New Year's Day. In the medium - term, the supply of pigs before March next year is expected to increase, and the supply pressure will ease from April. In the long - term, the supply pressure before September next year still exists, and may weaken after September [1][3] - For eggs, short - term downstream stocking supports the egg price to be strong, but the national average price is still in a low - level range. In the medium - term, the egg supply pressure is not fully released, and in the long - term, the continuous increase in egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit the price increase space [3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - The corn futures fluctuated weakly last night. As of the night - session close, the 2603 contract fell 0.54% and closed at 2,229 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast rose by 6 yuan/ton to 2,133 yuan/ton, while those in North China fell by 2 yuan/ton to 2,264 yuan/ton [1] - The port prices were stronger in the north and stable in the south. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port rose by 15 yuan/ton to 2,282 - 2,285 yuan/ton, and the transaction price at Shekou Port remained flat at 2,410 yuan/ton [1] - On December 30, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 39,395 lots [1] - On December 30, CGSG held a corn procurement transaction. The planned procurement volume was 39,000 tons, and the transaction volume was 13,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 35% [1] Market Logic - Short - term: Downstream stocking and farmers' reluctance to sell support the strength of northern port spot prices, but the seasonal selling pressure after New Year's Day limits the upside space. Medium - term: Maintain a wide - range trading idea. Long - term: Follow the pricing logic of substitution and planting cost, and focus on policy orientation [1] Trading Strategy - Maintain an interval trading idea in the long - term. The suggestions in the December 19 weekly report and the December 30 morning report have been verified by the market. Pay attention to position management during the New Year's Day holiday [1] Pig Market Review - The pig futures fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The 2603 contract rose 0.47% and closed at 11,790 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - The national average pig price rose by 0.06 yuan/kg to 12.47 yuan/kg yesterday, and the early - morning price is expected to continue rising today [1] - In October 2025, the number of fertile sows in stock was 39.9 million, falling below 40 million for the first time in 17 months [1] - The number of new - born piglets from January to September this year increased month - on - month (only decreased in July), indicating an increasing trend in pig slaughter before March next year. The number of new - born piglets in October decreased month - on - month, suggesting a relief in supply pressure from April next year [1] - As of December 25, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.39 kg, a decrease of 0.08 kg from the previous week [1] - On December 30, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained unchanged at 0.45 yuan/jin [1] - On December 30, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,013 lots [1] Market Logic - Short - term: The reduction in supply by group farms at the end of the month and the widening price difference between fat and standard pigs support the pig price. There is a risk of short - term spot price correction after New Year's Day, but the decline space is limited. Medium - term: The supply of pigs is expected to increase before March next year, and the supply pressure will ease from April. Long - term: The supply pressure before September next year still exists and may weaken after September [1][3] Trading Strategy - For the 2603 contract, the pressure range is 11,800 - 12,000, and the support range is 11,500 - 11,600. Similar pressure and support ranges are provided for the 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts. Pay attention to position management during the New Year's Day holiday [3] Egg Market Review - The egg futures contracts showed mixed performance yesterday. The 2602 contract fell 0.03% and closed at 2,938 yuan/500KG [3] Important Information - The egg spot price was mainly stable with some local weakness. The average price in the main production areas and main sales areas remained unchanged, while the Guantao powder egg price fell by 0.02 yuan/jin [3] - The inventory stopped falling and rebounded. The average inventory in the production and circulation links increased by 0.02 days to 1.01 days and 1.12 days respectively [3] - The average price of old laying hens in the mainstream market fell by 0.02 yuan/jin to 3.91 yuan/jin. As of December 25, the weekly average culling age of old hens decreased by 2 days to 484 days [3] - In November, the number of laying hens in stock was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52% and a year - on - year increase of 5.30%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in stock in December is 1.345 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52% [3] Market Logic - Short - term: Downstream stocking supports the egg price to be strong, but the national average price is still in a low - level range. Medium - term: The egg supply pressure is not fully released. Long - term: The continuous increase in egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit the price increase space [3] Trading Strategy - Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of near - month contracts after the inventory accumulates after New Year's Day. The pressure ranges for the 2602 and 2603 contracts are provided. In the long - term, focus on whether the culling of laying hens can lead to effective capacity reduction. Pay attention to position management during the New Year's Day holiday [3]

Group 1 - Argentina's corn production for the 2025/26 season is projected at 54.1 million tons, a 1% decrease from previous estimates, with a forecast range of 46.8 to 59.9 million tons due to drought risks in the Pampas region [1] - As of December 24, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major processing enterprises across 12 regions in the country is 3.378 million tons, reflecting a 4.26% increase [1] - In the main corn-producing states of the U.S., there is a 60% confidence that temperatures will be above historical averages in the next 6-10 days, while 15% of the areas have a high confidence of above-average precipitation [1] Group 2 - Overall, the corn production is increasing this year, but due to a decline in pig inventory and a reduction in egg production, the demand for corn is not optimistic, leading to long-term pressure on corn prices, although short-term prices may remain strong due to farmers holding back on sales [3] - In the short term, there is a mix of seasonal selling pressure and farmer reluctance to sell, along with continued support from downstream inventory building, resulting in fluctuating spot prices; medium-term, seasonal selling pressure will persist before the Spring Festival, limiting the potential for price increases [4] - Long-term pricing logic will focus on substitution and planting costs, with a key emphasis on policy direction [4]

Report Overview - **Date**: December 19, 2025 - **Researcher**: Zhang Xiaojun - **Contact**: 0371 - 65617380 - **Qualification**: F0242716 (Futures Practitioner), Z0011864 (Futures Trading Consultant) Report Key Points Corn - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Corn prices face both support and pressure, and are seeking to verify support levels [4] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the northeast and north China rose slightly; north - south port prices were stable with a slight increase; corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 627 lots; the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong narrowed; in November 2025, corn imports reached a yearly high, with cumulative imports from January - November down 86.08% year - on - year, and cumulative imports from October - November up 67.27% year - on - year; the bid - invitation sales of imported corn by CGSCC had a 100% transaction rate [4][5] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, prices oscillate due to seasonal selling pressure and support from farmers' reluctance to sell and downstream inventory building; medium - term, seasonal selling pressure remains before the Spring Festival, and policy grain auctions may provide supply next year; long - term, the pricing logic is import substitution and planting costs, with policy orientation being key [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a range - trading approach in the medium - to - long - term. Currently, suggest waiting or short - term trading. For the 2601 contract, support is at 2200 - 2220; for the 2603 contract, support is at 2180 - 2190. Consider low - buying opportunities if support holds [6] Pig - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: After the Winter Solstice stocking, the supply pressure of pigs is emerging [9] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, the national average pig price fell; the number of sows in October 2025 was below 40 million; the number of piglets from January - September increased, with a decrease in October; the average slaughter weight of pigs increased; the fat - lean price difference was stable; and the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [9] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, the end of Winter Solstice stocking has led to a price decline. Medium - term, supply is expected to increase until March next year, with relief starting from April. Long - term, supply pressure exists until September next year, and may ease after that if sow inventory continues to decline [10] - **Trading Strategy**: The 2601 contract follows the basis - repair logic; the 2603 contract returns to range - trading; far - month contracts trade on the expected difference in capacity reduction. If sow inventory continues to decline, consider low - buying opportunities after September next year. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [11] Egg - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The egg market has a weak current situation but strong expectations, with near - month contracts being weak and far - month contracts being strong [16] - **Summary by Category** - **Important Information**: On the 19th, egg spot prices were stable with a slight increase; inventory increased significantly; the price of old hens decreased; the number of laying hens in November decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year, and is expected to decline further in December [16] - **Market Logic**: Short - term, egg prices are in a low - range, and focus on downstream consumption and inventory. Medium - term, egg supply pressure remains, and the upward momentum of spot prices is limited. Long - term, the increasing scale of egg production may limit price increases, and wait for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [17] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for short - selling opportunities in near - month contracts after inventory accumulation. In the medium - to - long - term, focus on whether low prices can drive culling and capacity reduction. Currently, supply pressure exists before the second quarter next year, and whether the second quarter can be a turning point depends on first - quarter culling [18]