农药制剂出口增长

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看好农药制剂出口增长的结构性机会
Orient Securities· 2025-08-01 02:44
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The significant year-on-year growth in China's pesticide formulation exports is driven not only by cyclical inventory replenishment but also by structural changes in the end-market, presenting a structural opportunity for Chinese companies to reshape the global agricultural chemical value chain [2][8] - The recovery of demand in Brazil, the world's largest agricultural market, is expected to provide substantial marginal support, with soybean and corn production forecasts for the 2024/25 planting year expected to increase by approximately 15% year-on-year due to improved weather conditions [8][17] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report continues to favor companies with a rich product portfolio and excellent supply chain management capabilities, such as Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy). It also highlights the potential for profit improvement from the recovery of key raw material categories, recommending Yangnong Chemical (600486, Hold), Xingfa Group (600141, Buy), and others [3] Market Dynamics - The global agricultural chemical industry has nearly completed a two-year inventory destocking cycle, indicating potential for bottom recovery. The structural shift in the purchasing entities in Brazil, where traditional multinational companies' import share has decreased from 80% to 70%, is crucial for the increase in China's pesticide formulation exports [8][9] - The changing structure of end-market purchasing entities, with a rise in non-traditional multinational players, is expected to enhance the growth opportunities for Chinese pesticide formulation companies [8] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the structural changes in the end-market purchasing entities validate previous insights regarding the reshaping of the global agricultural chemical value chain, allowing local operators to break free from traditional monopolies and choose suppliers independently [8]