行 业 及 产 业 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 22 日 高油价下煤化工等能源套利空间再 扩大，蛋氨酸景气持续提升，CAC 农展会反馈积极 看好 ——《化工周报 26/3/16-26/3/20》 相关研究 《生物基 PDO 格局优化，台积电资本开支 大幅增加，半导体材料景气持续上行—— 《化工周报 26/1/12-26/1/16》》 2026/01/18 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 李彦宏 A0230125030002 liyh@swsre ...

地缘局势预期波动不改行业长期逻辑推进 核心观点 基础化工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 中东局势现实趋严而预期缓解：本周行情仍主要受中东局势主导。虽然霍尔木兹海 峡通行问题还未有效缓解，油价与绝大多数化工品价格持续上涨，但股票行情却出 现较大的波动。我们认为波动的主要原因是市场对于局势可能较快缓解的预期变 化。然而从目前情势看，油气原料的现实短缺问题还在不断加剧。特别是海外化工 企业受制于整体资源体量问题，不稳定性更大。我们认为短期内可能会出现越来越 多的海外化工企业调降负荷，甚至停产。对于投资来说，首先现实与预期的进一步 分化会带来短期机会。更重要的是对于战争前就处于景气提升通道的行业来说，战 争导致的供给短期缺失，实际加速了中长期逻辑的推进。因此我们仍然看好前期重 点关注的聚氨酯，PVC 和聚酯瓶片等子行业。 ⚫ 关注甜味剂行业供需边际向好变化：市场前期对三氯蔗糖景气预期较低，主要是因 为 24 下半年至 25 上半年行业进行过一轮减产协同，但 ...

证券代码：301035 证券简称：润丰股份 公告编号：2026-008 山东潍坊润丰化工股份有限公司 关于控股股东部分股份质押的公告 二、股东股份累计质押的情况 截至公告披露日，上述股东所持质押股份情况如下： | | | | | | | | 已质押股份情况 | | 未质押股份情况 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股东 | 持股数量 | 持股比 | 本次质押前 | 本次质押后 | 占其所 | 占公司 | | 占已 | | 占未 | | | | | 质押股份数 | 质押股份数 | 持股份 | 总股本 | 已质押股份 | 质押 | 未质押股份 | 质押 | | 名称 | （股） | 例 | | | | | 限售和冻结 | | 限售和冻结 | | | | | | 量（股） | 量（股） | 比例 | 比例 | | 股份 | | 股份 | | | | | | | | | 数量（股） | | 数量（股） | | | | | | | | | | | 比例 | | 比例 | | 润源 | 114,911,237 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the stability of raw material supply has become the primary concern for the chemical industry due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East [2][7] - The report highlights the recovery opportunities across various sub-sectors of the chemical industry, particularly in MDI, PVC, refining, and agricultural chemicals [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - The report recommends several companies: - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) - PVC industry players: Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated) - Refining industry leaders: Sinopec (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - Agricultural chemical leaders: Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), Xinyangfeng (000902, Buy), Shidanli (002588, Not Rated), Yuntu Holdings (002539, Not Rated), and Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy) for pesticide formulations [3] - The report also notes the potential in the phosphorous chemical sector driven by rapid growth in energy storage, with companies like Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated) and Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) being highlighted [3] - In the oxalic acid industry, companies to watch include Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), and Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market's focus has shifted from oil prices to the stability of raw material supply, with many companies adjusting their operations in response to geopolitical uncertainties [7] - It is noted that the PVC sector is expected to benefit from its reliance on coal as a primary raw material, which offers stability compared to ethylene-based PVC production [7] - The agricultural chemicals sector is anticipated to see an upward trend in demand due to rising agricultural product prices and the importance of food security amid geopolitical tensions [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $93 per barrel as of March 6, 2026. If the Strait remains blocked for 4-6 weeks, prices may rise above $120, impacting the chemical sector positively in the short term [2][3]. - The report indicates that the chemical sector is experiencing upward price trends for MDI, TDI, and methionine due to increased costs and supply constraints, suggesting a potential price surge in the pesticide sector as well [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on key materials for growth, particularly in semiconductor materials and packaging materials, as well as the impact of "anti-involution" policies accelerating the exit of outdated capacities [2][3]. Summary by Sections Macro Economic Analysis - Oil prices have surged due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude at $93 per barrel. If the situation persists, prices could exceed $120, which would have significant implications for the chemical industry [3][4]. - Coal prices are stabilizing, and natural gas prices are expected to decline as the U.S. accelerates its export facilities [3]. Chemical Sector Dynamics - The report notes that MDI and TDI prices are rising due to sustained cost pressures and supply constraints, with domestic companies controlling shipment volumes [2][3]. - The methionine market is expected to recover, with prices increasing to 22.5 yuan/kg, driven by geopolitical disruptions affecting supply [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various chains, including textile, agricultural chemicals, and export-related sectors, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [2][3]. - Key companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical, Cangzhou Dahua, and others in the agricultural sector like Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co., which are expected to benefit from rising prices [2][3]. Company Valuation Insights - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings, with specific recommendations for buy, hold, or sell based on their performance [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The geopolitical conflicts have led to a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $93 per barrel, which positively impacts the chemical sector if the blockade lasts for 4-6 weeks. If it extends beyond that, prices could exceed $120 per barrel, creating potential price transmission issues for the industry [3][4]. - The report highlights the rising prices of MDI, TDI, and methionine, suggesting a potential price surge in the pesticide sector due to low global inventory levels and increased demand as the spring farming season approaches [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hualu Hengsheng, Luxi Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical due to their strong supply-side support and market dynamics [3][4]. Industry Dynamics - Oil prices have risen significantly, with Brent crude increasing by 27.5% and WTI by 36.5% as of March 6 [9]. - The PPI for industrial products showed a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% but a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, indicating a slight recovery in the chemical sector [4][6]. - The report notes that the agricultural sector is likely to see a price increase due to low inventory levels and the upcoming spring planting season, with companies like Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co. being highlighted for potential investment [3][4]. Investment Analysis - The report recommends a diversified investment approach across various chains, including textile, agricultural chemicals, and export-related sectors, with specific companies identified for each category [3][4]. - Key materials for growth are emphasized, particularly in semiconductor and panel materials, with companies like Yake Technology and Ruilian New Materials being noted for their potential [3][4]. - The report suggests that the chemical sector is well-positioned for growth, with a focus on companies that can benefit from the current market dynamics and geopolitical influences [3][4].

Core Insights - Smart agriculture is a significant advanced stage in the development of agricultural informationization and modernization, utilizing cutting-edge technologies like satellite positioning systems and intelligent devices to enhance productivity and resource efficiency [1][5] - The Chinese smart agriculture market is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to increase from 38.47 billion yuan in 2017 to 120 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.28% [1][8] - Smart agriculture is a crucial support for rural revitalization and an inevitable trend in agricultural modernization, with future applications expected to be broader and more mature as technology continues to evolve [1][8] Smart Agriculture Industry Overview - Smart agriculture integrates modern information technologies such as the Internet, IoT, big data, and AI to achieve comprehensive information perception, quantitative decision-making, intelligent control, and personalized services in agricultural production [2][5] - Key components of smart agriculture include smart planting, smart livestock, smart aquaculture, intelligent farming machinery, and smart parks [2] Smart Agriculture Classification - Smart agriculture can be categorized into various segments, including smart planting, smart livestock, smart aquaculture, and intelligent agricultural machinery [3] Benefits of Smart Agriculture - Smart agriculture improves ecological environments by ensuring that agricultural practices do not harm soil and water quality, while also enhancing production efficiency through real-time monitoring and data analysis [4][5] - It transforms the mindset of agricultural producers and consumers, enabling remote learning and access to agricultural knowledge and market information, thus changing traditional reliance on experience [5] Industry Development History - The development of smart agriculture in China can be divided into five stages, from traditional practices before 2000 to the current focus on ecological sustainability and resource optimization [6] Industry Policies - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to promote smart agriculture, recognizing it as a key component of digital rural construction and rural revitalization strategies [6] - The "National Smart Agriculture Action Plan (2024-2028)" aims to enhance public service capabilities and explore intelligent solutions for major crops by 2026 [6] Industry Value Chain - The smart agriculture value chain consists of upstream raw materials and equipment, midstream agricultural production processes, and downstream agricultural product processing and distribution [6][7] Current Market Size and Structure - The smart agriculture market is primarily driven by digital platform services and smart planting, accounting for 36% and 31% of the market, respectively [8] - The agricultural product circulation market in China is projected to reach 16.87 trillion yuan in 2024, with a 3% year-on-year growth [7] Industry Trends - The future of smart agriculture will focus on precision management, automation, and environmental sustainability, leveraging advanced technologies to enhance productivity and reduce resource waste [11][12][14] - Automation will significantly improve efficiency across the agricultural production chain, from planting to harvesting, enabling continuous production and higher land productivity [12][13]

证券代码：301035 证券简称：润丰股份 公告编号：2026-007 公司于2026年2月5日召开了第五届董事会第四次会议审议通过了《关于使用 部分闲置募集资金暂时补充流动资金的议案》和《关于开立募集资金暂时补充流 动资金专项账户并签订募集资金三方监管协议的议案》，同意公司使用不超过人 民币20,000.00万元闲置募集资金暂时补充流动资金和开立募集资金暂时补充流 动资金专项账户并签订募集资金三方监管协议。具体内容详见公司于2026年2月5 日在巨潮资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）披露的《关于使用部分闲置募集资金暂 时补充流动资金的公告》等相关公告。 - 1 - 山东潍坊润丰化工股份有限公司 关于签订募集资金三方监管协议的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、募集资金基本情况 经中国证券监督管理委员会于2021年6月23日下发的《关于同意山东潍坊润 丰化工股份有限公司首次公开发行股票注册的批复》（证监许可[2021]2113号） 同意，山东潍坊润丰化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"润丰股份"）向 社会公开发行人民币普通股股票 ...

推荐阅读 据证券时报·数据宝统计，A股中化肥农药板块概念股共有63只，35股已发布2025年度业绩预告或业绩快报，其中13股预计归母净利润实现同比增长，7股预 计扭亏为盈。 按预告净利润同比增幅下限看，预增个股中，利民股份预计增幅最高。公司业绩预告显示，预计实现归母净利润4.65亿元~5亿元，同比大幅增长 471.55%~514.57%，公司2025年度归母净利润有望创上市以来新高。公司在投资者互动平台上表示，目前拥有各类农药证件共328个，其中原药登记证50 个、制剂登记证278个，覆盖杀菌剂、杀虫剂、除草剂、土壤调节剂和种衣剂等多类产品。 预计扭亏为盈的个股中，华邦健康预计净利润下限最高，公司预计实现归母净利润6.6亿~7.3亿元，同比由亏损2.99亿元实现扭亏为盈。公司表示，农化新材 料板块行业局部回暖，公司积极开拓市场，加强精细化管理，降本增效，整体业绩得到改善和提升。 年初以来，业绩较好的化肥农药股获得机构关注。统计显示，5只业绩预增或扭亏的概念股年初以来接受10家及以上机构调研，润丰股份、盐湖股份、联化 科技机构调研家数较多，分别为97家、25家、21家。 2月25日早盘，化肥农药板块再度拉升。川 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the glyphosate concept stocks in the A-share market have continued to strengthen, with significant gains observed in several companies following a U.S. executive order prioritizing phosphorous and glyphosate as national security issues [1][2] Group 2 - Hebang Biotechnology (603077) saw a price increase of 9.92%, with a total market value of 254 billion and a year-to-date increase of 27.43% [2] - Xingfa Group (600141) rose by 4.36%, with a market capitalization of 484 billion and a year-to-date increase of 25.39% [2] - Hongtaiyang (000525) increased by 3.17%, with a market value of 84.84 billion and a year-to-date increase of 19.23% [2] - Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035) experienced a 2.34% rise, with a market capitalization of 242 billion and a year-to-date increase of 26.67% [2] - Jiangshan Co., Ltd. (600389) rose by 2.29%, with a market value of 121 billion and a year-to-date increase of 11.35% [2] - Andermatt A (000553) increased by 2.26%, with a market capitalization of 147 billion and a year-to-date increase of 15.51% [2] - Xin'an Chemical (600596) saw a 2.09% rise, with a market value of 184 billion and a year-to-date increase of 19.09% [2]