农药景气周期

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化工周报:爆炸事件导致康宽及K胺供需趋紧,有望推动农药行业景气加速修复,硝化棉价格或继续上行-20250602
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-06-02 12:11
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific companies in the agricultural chemicals sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co., while recommending "Hold" for others like Haier and Guangxin Co. [20] Core Insights - The recent explosion incident has tightened the supply-demand dynamics for K-amine and other intermediates, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of the pesticide industry and potentially drive up nitrocellulose prices [5][12] - The agricultural chemicals sector is gradually returning to rationality, with high-priced inventories being depleted and procurement demand recovering, although supply-side pressures remain [5][12] - The report highlights the potential for stricter safety and environmental regulations following the recent incidents, which could further enhance the agricultural chemicals industry's cyclical recovery [5][12] Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgments indicate that oil prices are under pressure due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term [6] - The chemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in PPI, with April's chemical industry PPI showing a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [8] - The report notes that the recent explosion at a chemical facility has led to increased prices for K-amine and related products, with recommendations to focus on companies like Hongyang and Lier Chemical [5][12] Chemical Product Prices and Trends - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various chemical products, including a stable price for urea at 1830 RMB/ton and fluctuations in pesticide prices, with some herbicides seeing price increases [12][22] - The report indicates that the price of nitrocellulose has risen significantly, with export prices increasing from 2.06 USD/kg in October 2021 to 4.75 USD/kg in April 2025 [5][12] Company Recommendations - Specific companies are highlighted for investment based on their market positions and growth potential, including Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Co., and others in the agricultural chemicals sector [20] - The report suggests monitoring companies with mature nitrochemical processes, such as Yangnong Chemical and Guangxin Co., due to expected regulatory changes [5][12]