农业ETF(516810.SH)持仓生猪养殖、农业化工、种植业等多个细分板块龙头，充分受益反内卷、猪周期 反转、化工周期、种业安全等多重共振，目前估值处于历史低位水平。投资者可以借道ETF布局农业低 位反弹机会，ETF有低门槛、分散风险的优势，同时被动跟踪指数，持仓透明、风格不漂移。联接A： 016077；联接C：016078 近期市场板块轮动较快。东方证券表示，避险情绪助推消费，化工农业仍是重点。在全球不确定性增加 的背景下，粮食安全是国家战略底线。农业板块估值处于历史低位，同时内循环属性较强，具备较高的 安全边际和必选消费的抗通胀属性。 2026年2月27日，A股周期板块再度活跃，农业板块多股走强，截至10:32，农业ETF华夏(516810)上涨 1.25%， 冲击4连涨。持仓股亚盛集团上涨9.97%，利民股份上涨5.28%，立华股份上涨3.29%，牧原股 份，海南橡胶等个股跟涨。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 农业ETF华夏(516810)，场外联接(华夏中证农业主题ETF发起式联接A：016077；华夏中证农业主题 ETF发起式联接C：016078；华夏中证农业主题ETF发起式联接D ...

化工行业ETF易方达（516570）一键打包石化产业龙头，管理费率+托管费率合计仅0.2%/年，助力投资 者低成本布局传统能源产业机会。 截至11：20，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨2.62%，创逾四年新高，权重股中，万华化学涨4.56%， 中国石油涨1.35%，中国石化涨1.37%，盐湖股份涨3.79%，中国海油跌0.48%，藏格矿业涨2.44%，巨化 股份涨2.04%，恒力石化涨1.18%，华鲁恒升涨3.66%，宝丰能源涨0.8%。截至2月24日，该指数近一年 上涨52.16%。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接A(020104.OF) 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐，资金连续两日净流入，合计超 4900万，近20日"吸金"超14亿；该基金最新规模达17.94亿。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接C(020105.OF) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.c ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share agricultural sector experienced a strong performance on the first trading day after the holiday, with various sub-sectors such as agrochemical products, planting and forestry, breeding, agricultural product processing, and phosphate chemicals showing significant gains [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 13:33, the agricultural ETF Huaxia (516810) rose over 1.5%, with holdings like Taihe Co. increasing by over 9% and several other stocks such as Yangnong Chemical, Batian Co., New Yangfeng, Hainan Rubber, Lier Chemical, and Stanley rising over 5% [1] - The price of urea in India reached a new high, with East Coast CFR at $512/ton and West Coast CFR at $508/ton, reflecting an increase of approximately $85/ton compared to January, equivalent to about 3,500 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Dongfang Securities anticipates that with the end of the bulk leverage issues since the beginning of the year, the original upward path of cyclical sectors is expected to re-emerge, with chemicals and agriculture being key focuses within the cyclical sector [1] - The chemical sector is viewed as the beginning of a return to a prosperous cycle for the industry and a re-evaluation of China's strong chemical industry value [1] - The extremely pessimistic expectations for live pig prices highlight the potential for value in allocations [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The agricultural ETF (516810.SH) holds leading stocks in pig farming, agricultural chemicals, and planting sectors, benefiting from multiple factors such as anti-involution, pig cycle reversal, chemical cycle, and seed safety [1] - Investors can utilize the ETF to capitalize on low-point rebound opportunities in agriculture, as ETFs offer low entry barriers, risk diversification, and transparent holdings that passively track indices without style drift [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of ETFs and highlights the search for undervalued assets within the chemical industry, emphasizing the cyclical nature of the sector and the potential for investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Industry Analysis - The chemical industry is characterized by cyclical fluctuations, which can create both challenges and opportunities for investors [1]. - Current market conditions suggest that certain segments within the chemical industry are undervalued, presenting potential investment opportunities [1]. - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying value coordinates in the chemical sector to navigate through its cyclical nature effectively [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy involves focusing on ETFs that target specific undervalued segments within the chemical industry [1]. - Investors are encouraged to analyze financial metrics and market trends to uncover hidden value in chemical companies [1]. - The article suggests that a thorough understanding of the cyclical patterns in the chemical industry can lead to better investment decisions [1].

Key Recommendations - The report highlights a positive outlook for the chemical industry, suggesting a longer cycle based on historical profit recovery, with an average ROE of 10.14% expected between 2024 and 2026, compared to peaks of 16.32% in 2007 and 17.6% in 2021 [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, driven by a recovery in demand and the emergence of new retail formats [13] Economic Indicators - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,136 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, which was below the market expectation of 1.5% [10] - The CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, while the PPI showed a smaller decline of 1.9%, indicating a narrowing gap between PPI and CPI [12] Market Performance - The A-share market showed a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,136 points, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices also recorded gains [21] - The report notes that 94% of sectors in the market closed in the green, with significant gains in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, which rose by 10.07% [23] Sector Analysis - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from a recovery phase, supported by the clearing of outdated facilities in Europe and Japan, and a slowdown in new projects domestically [6] - The retail sector is experiencing a shift towards online consumption, with online retail sales growing by 8.6% year-on-year, while physical retail is adapting to new business models [10][11] Policy Developments - The report mentions the release of the "Jiuquan Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Plan," which aims to establish a national commercial aerospace launch base, indicating a strategic push in the aerospace sector [14] - The national market operation and consumption promotion meeting emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumption in 2026, marking it as a critical year for economic recovery [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is gaining attention as a significant investment opportunity alongside AI, chips, and new consumption sectors, particularly due to the increasing crowding in these other sectors since 2025 [1][21]. Group 1: Chemical Industry Cycle - The chemical industry typically follows a "5-year cycle," characterized by phases of profit growth, capacity expansion, profit bottoming, and capacity clearance or demand improvement [2][22]. - Current conditions indicate a "dawn" phase for the chemical industry, coinciding with a reduction in capital expenditure growth, anti-involution trends, overseas interest rate cuts, and domestic demand expansion [2][22]. - Key focus areas for 2026 include anti-involution, capacity reduction, and identifying demand certainty, with specific industries like PTA, polyester filament, organic silicon, and caprolactam leading the way [4][24]. Group 2: Growth Opportunities - Four growth areas within the chemical sector show clear potential: 1. Lubricant additives, benefiting from overseas client breakthroughs and global substitution trends [7][27]. 2. Biomanufacturing, driven by AI-enabled synthetic biology and promising new materials like PDO [7][27]. 3. Green fuels, spurred by urgent international emission reduction needs, creating markets for SAF and green alcohol [7][27]. 4. Solid-state batteries, nearing industrialization with advancements in sulfide and other battery materials [7][27]. Group 3: AI Materials - The explosive growth of the AI industry highlights four chemical material areas worth monitoring: 1. Chromium chemicals, with strong demand from two major sectors and ongoing supply constraints [10][30]. 2. Liquid cooling, driven by high computing density and the exit of 3M from the PFAS market, indicating a growing demand for cooling liquids [10][30]. 3. PCB materials, with a clear trend towards high-frequency and high-speed applications [10][30]. 4. Energy storage, with data center requirements boosting overseas storage demand and exceeding expectations for mobile storage, marking a turning point for the lithium battery supply chain [10][30]. Group 4: ETF Investment Opportunities - There are currently six ETFs tracking the chemical sector, reflecting the overall performance of major chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [11][31]. - The Hua Bao Fund's chemical ETF (516020) has seen a remarkable growth rate of 832.84% in the past year [13][33]. - Analyst forecasts for 2025E and 2026E indicate a significant improvement in net profits for the ETF's weighted stocks compared to 2024, confirming a turning point in industry prosperity [18][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a long - term bullish rating on butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The chemical cycle has reached an inflection point, and the elasticity of BD/BR has significantly increased. With strong fundamental support for butadiene, the "high -开工, high - inventory" situation of cis - butadiene rubber continues, the number of warehouse receipts increases, and both spot and futures prices rise. It is expected that the price of synthetic rubber still has further upward room [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped significantly and then rebounded rapidly this week, with the spot price ranging from 11,200 to 12,200 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the spot and mainstream supply prices fell continuously due to various factors. In the middle and late weeks, the price of raw materials increased significantly, leading to a rapid disappearance of the bearish sentiment in the spot market [4] 3.2 Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: The weekly output was [data unclear] tons last week, with a capacity utilization rate of [data unclear]%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, and the output release was limited. Maoming Petrochemical's plant restarted gradually [3]. - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: Some private cis - butadiene plants in the north had production conversion and slight load reduction. Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plant was under maintenance and was expected to restart at the beginning of the next cycle [3] 3.3 Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel tires**: There was some stocking behavior in the all - season tire market for the pre - Spring Festival demand peak. The trading volume of snow tires increased slightly due to low - temperature weather, but the terminal demand still needed further stimulation from snowfall [3] - **All - steel tires**: The market transaction was dull. In December, the industry stocked up a lot to complete purchase tasks. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the inventory digestion is slow. The secondary purchase ability is insufficient this month, and the industry focuses on payment collection [3] 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: The port inventory last week was 34,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 22.65%. The East China port showed a continuous destocking trend, and it is expected to continue due to reduced arrivals and lower capacity utilization [3] - **Cis - butadiene rubber**: The total inventory of enterprises and traders was 35,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%. The inventory of producers increased, while that of traders decreased, with a slight overall inventory build - up, and the warehouse receipt inventory pressure was high [3] 3.5 Price and Profit Analysis - **Price**: The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber all increased this week. For example, the ex - factory price of butadiene in Dalian Hengli increased by 950 yuan/ton from January 19th to January 23rd, with a weekly increase of 10.15% [7][8] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene oxidation - dehydrogenation was 1,260 yuan/ton, and that of C4 extraction was 2,944.06 yuan/ton. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 615 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 4.62% [3] 3.6 Investment and Trading Strategy - **Investment view**: Bullish in the medium and long term [3] - **Trading strategy**: For unilateral trading, maintain an appropriate long position and beware of the risk of capital profit - taking and price correction. For arbitrage, focus on going long BR and shorting NR/RU. Pay attention to downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [3]

Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a historical profit recovery reference, indicating a positive outlook for a longer chemical cycle, driven by various factors including raw material price fluctuations, macroeconomic demand, supply cycles, and technological advancements [8][9]. Global Asset Review - During the week of January 23, global stock markets, except for A-shares, generally declined, while major commodity futures such as crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum saw price increases. The dollar index fell, leading to appreciation of the Renminbi, Yen, and Euro [11][12]. - The performance ranking of equity markets was led by the Sci-Tech 50, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index and others, with significant movements in various sectors [11][12]. Domestic Equity Market Review - As of January 23, the domestic equity market showed a preference for cyclical stocks over growth, consumption, and finance, with an average daily trading volume of 27,750 billion Yuan. Among the 31 sectors, 24 experienced gains, with construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, and steel leading the increases [18][19]. Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Tracking - The report notes that short-term interest rates are expected to stabilize following the end of the tax period, with a significant amount of medium to long-term deposits maturing in the first half of the year. The central bank's supportive stance is anticipated to mitigate liquidity pressures [9][20]. - The report highlights that the long-term bond yields are expected to remain under pressure due to concerns over supply and macroeconomic recovery, while short-term rates may see slight increases [21][22]. Commodity Tracking - Crude oil prices increased to $61.07 per barrel, with U.S. crude production rising to 13.732 million barrels per day, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 255,000 barrels per day [29]. - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,981.31 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and market expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [45][46]. Industry and Themes - The report suggests a favorable outlook for the chemical sector, driven by historical profit recovery trends and the anticipated upward cycle due to reduced capacity in Europe and Japan, along with a slowdown in new domestic projects [8][9]. - The application of AI in the industry is also highlighted as a potential growth area, alongside recommendations for investment in the chemical and non-ferrous sectors for 2026 [8].

Group 1: Global Market Overview - Global stock markets generally declined in the week ending January 23, 2026, except for A-shares, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Index performing well[2] - Major commodity futures, including crude oil, gold, copper, and aluminum, saw price increases, while the US dollar index fell, leading to appreciation of the RMB, JPY, and EUR[2] - The average daily trading volume in the domestic equity market was 27,750 billion RMB, down from 34,283 billion RMB[2] Group 2: Domestic Equity Market Insights - As of January 23, 2026, 24 out of 31 sectors in the Shenwan industry index rose, with the top gainers being construction materials (+9.23%), oil and petrochemicals (+7.71%), and steel (+7.31%)[2] - The banking sector experienced a decline of -2.70%, while telecommunications and non-bank financials fell by -2.12% and -1.45%, respectively[2] Group 3: Chemical Industry Outlook - The chemical industry is expected to enter a longer positive cycle, with historical average ROE for basic chemicals projected at 10.14% from 2006 to 2024, and peaks of 16.32% in 2007 and 17.6% in 2021[8] - Factors supporting this outlook include the clearing of outdated facilities in Europe and Japan, a slowdown in new domestic projects, and a gradual global economic recovery[8] Group 4: Interest Rates and Currency Trends - Short-term funding rates are expected to stabilize post-tax period, with the central bank's supportive stance likely to mitigate the impact of maturing deposits on liquidity[9] - The 1Y government bond yield rose by 3.95 basis points to 1.2819%, while the 10Y yield fell by 1.26 basis points to 1.8298%[2] Group 5: Commodity Price Tracking - As of January 23, 2026, WTI crude oil prices rose to $61.07 per barrel, a 2.7% increase from the previous week[29] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4,981.31 per ounce, reflecting an 8.31% increase week-on-week[45]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in ethylene glycol futures is driven by multiple factors, including overseas plant maintenance, domestic supply reduction, adverse weather conditions in the U.S., and increased capital inflow into the chemical sector [4][5][10]. Supply Side Analysis - Several overseas plants are undergoing maintenance, notably in Taiwan and Saudi Arabia, which is expected to reduce imports and contribute to price increases [4]. - Domestic supply is anticipated to decrease, with multiple large ethylene glycol plants scheduled for maintenance or conversion in the second quarter, potentially leading to inventory reduction [4]. - As of January 22, the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate was at 73.43%, indicating high production levels despite upcoming maintenance [6]. Demand Side Analysis - Demand from weaving and polyester sectors is facing seasonal declines as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to reduced orders and lower operating rates in polyester plants [7]. - The polyester operating rate has decreased to 86.7% as of January 22, reflecting the impact of reduced demand [7]. Market Sentiment and Price Movement - The chemical sector is experiencing renewed interest from capital markets, with funds flowing into undervalued chemical products, contributing to price increases [4][10]. - Ethylene glycol prices have seen significant increases due to previous low valuations and recent market sentiment shifts, although concerns about sustainability of these price increases remain [9][10]. Inventory and Import Trends - Ethylene glycol imports in December were 835,000 tons, with expectations for January remaining high due to ongoing port arrivals [6]. - As of January 19, inventory levels in East China ports were at 741,000 tons, indicating a slight decrease but still high overall [7]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest potential inventory accumulation in January to March, with a shift towards inventory reduction anticipated in the second quarter as maintenance and demand recovery occur [9][12]. - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a near-term focus on supply constraints and potential demand recovery post-Spring Festival [10][12].