[Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月12日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 王敏君 S0630522040002 wmj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260112 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 [table_summary] ➢ 1.PPI回升与化工周期推动向好——资产配置周报（2026/01/05-2026/01/09） ➢ 2.通胀延续向好趋势——国内观察：2025年12月通胀数据 ➢ 3.出海引领，链动未来：奇瑞"技术筑基+电动智能+全球突破"下的产业链重构机遇—— 汽车行业深度报告 ➢ 4.巨星科技（002444）：全球化布局显效，推进新业务拓展——公司简评报告 晨会纪要 1.重点推荐 ➢ 1.上海：支持企业聚焦激光制造、 ...

基础化工 2026年01月11日 看好 相关研究 《氨纶或迎格局重塑，欧盟对华轮胎反倾 销暂不采取措施，不改企业出海优势- 《化工周报 25/12/15-25/12/19》》 2025/12/21 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 李彦宏 A0230125030002 liyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 陕西省或对高耗能行业实施差别化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance in 2025, with significant gains in various sectors, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and military industries, indicating a positive outlook for 2026. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals sector achieved the highest annual growth rate in 2025, with the non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) rising by 91.67%, significantly outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 18.41% [10][19]. - Key stocks in the non-ferrous sector, such as Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Luoyang Molybdenum, saw substantial price increases, with Zijin Mining up by 133.09% and Jiangxi Copper up by 176.92% [10][6]. - The sector's strong performance is attributed to a combination of global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, and improved domestic macroeconomic expectations [8][10]. Military Industry - The military sector, particularly the commercial aerospace segment, has gained significant traction, with the military ETF Huabao (512810) rising over 32% in 2025, marking its second-best annual performance since its inception [13][16]. - Major stocks in the military sector, including GuoBo Electronics and China Satellite, experienced notable gains, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [14][13]. - The military industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2026, driven by increased military demand and advancements in commercial aerospace [16][13]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector also performed well, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a 41.09% increase in 2025, outperforming major indices [20][19]. - The lithium battery supply chain has seen a significant rise in both price and demand, with prices for lithium carbonate reaching 116,000 yuan per ton, indicating a robust market outlook [22][20]. - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing macroeconomic recovery and supply-side policy advancements, with a focus on key areas such as phosphates and semiconductor materials [22][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a restructuring in the spandex sector, with a potential upward trend in market conditions. The EU has decided not to impose anti-dumping measures on Chinese tires, which does not alter the competitive advantages for companies expanding overseas [3][4]. - The report highlights the macroeconomic conditions affecting the chemical sector, including stable oil prices, easing pressures in the coal market, and potential reductions in natural gas import costs due to increased export facility construction in the U.S. [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the spandex, tire, and agricultural chemical sectors, indicating a positive outlook for companies like Huafeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, and SaiLun Tire [3][4]. Summary by Sections Chemical Macro Judgment - Oil supply is tightening due to OPEC+ production delays and peak shale oil output, while demand is stabilizing with global economic improvements. Brent oil prices are expected to remain in the range of $55-70 per barrel [3][4]. - Coal prices are anticipated to stabilize at a low level, and natural gas costs may decrease as the U.S. accelerates its export infrastructure [3][4]. Spandex Industry Outlook - The spandex industry is currently operating at an 84% utilization rate, with a significant price gap remaining at historical lows. The report anticipates a recovery in market conditions as outdated capacities are phased out [3][4]. - Companies to watch include Huafeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, and Taihe New Materials [3][4]. Tire Industry Insights - The EU's decision to delay anti-dumping measures on Chinese tires is seen as a positive for companies like Sailun Tire and Zhongce Rubber, as it allows for safer procurement from Southeast Asia or overseas bases [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of global supply chain strategies in light of changing trade barriers [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a diversified investment approach across various chemical sectors, including textiles, agricultural chemicals, and export-oriented products, highlighting specific companies for potential investment [3][4]. - Key materials for growth are identified, including semiconductor materials and OLED panel materials, with specific companies suggested for each category [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and potential future of the chemical industry in the U.S. and China, highlighting investment opportunities and risks based on macroeconomic factors and industry cycles. Group 1: U.S. Chemical Industry - The acquisition of Oxychem by Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion is highlighted as a significant value investment, with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6-8, compared to the industry average of 9 and specialty chemicals at over 12 [2][3]. - The U.S. chemical industry is potentially at a cyclical bottom, driven by low production costs and a current industry downturn leading to attractive valuations [3][14]. - The return on capital in the U.S. chemical industry is at its lowest in over 25 years, indicating a challenging environment for profitability [7]. - The demand for chemicals is primarily driven by the automotive and real estate sectors, which are currently subdued due to high interest rates, but may rebound if rates decrease [11][14]. Group 2: Chinese Chemical Industry - The Chinese chemical industry faces higher costs compared to the U.S., which may lead to increased uncertainty and risk in investments [16][24]. - Recent expansions in production capacity in China are nearing completion, which may impact future supply dynamics [16][22]. - The demand outlook for 2026 remains uncertain, influenced by both domestic and export factors, as well as the performance of traditional and new economy sectors [23][24]. - The article suggests that the Chinese chemical sector is characterized by higher risk and potential returns, with significant policy influences affecting supply-side reforms [24].

Core Viewpoint - The company's Q3 2025 performance is in line with expectations, showing a significant increase in net profit despite a decline in revenue [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was 19.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 30 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 362%, marking a turnaround from previous losses - Non-recurring net profit was 50 million yuan - For the first nine months of 2025, revenue totaled 58.9 billion yuan, with a net loss of 430 million yuan - Asset impairment losses for the first nine months were 417 million yuan, primarily due to inventory impairment [1] Industry Trends - The chemical cycle is still awaiting recovery, with polyethylene and polypropylene sales increasing by 5% year-on-year to 710,000 tons in the first nine months of 2025 - Q3 2025 sales for these products rose by 9% year-on-year to 250,000 tons, although industry price spreads remain low - The naphtha cracking margin in Q3 2025 decreased by 15% year-on-year to 221 USD/ton, and ethylene prices fell by 4% year-on-year to 831 USD/ton, indicating that product margins may take time to recover - Adjustments in refined oil structure show slight recovery in diesel sales, with total sales of diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene at 1.79 million tons, 2.47 million tons, and 1.03 million tons respectively for the first nine months of 2025 - The ethylene upgrading project in Shanghai is progressing well, expected to be operational by 2028, which may lead to a turning point in the industry post-2027 due to potential constraints on new capacity approvals [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to lower-than-expected chemical price spreads, the company has revised down its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 86% and 40% to 50 million yuan and 390 million yuan respectively - The valuation remains unchanged, with target prices set at 3.3 yuan for A-shares and 1.6 HKD for H-shares, indicating potential upside of 17% and 14% - Current trading levels are at 1.2x and 0.5x P/B for 2025/26 for A and H shares respectively [3]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the chemical industry is entering a new phase of capital expenditure, with a focus on the rebalancing of supply and demand following the release of production capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [2][6] - The report indicates that the bottom of the cycle is becoming clearer, with potential price increases for chemical products driven by demand recovery and supply stability in the second half of the year [2][6] Industry Overview - The current cycle has reached its tail end, with a total of 12 quarters of decline since Q3 2022, following a 7-quarter expansion from Q4 2020 to Q2 2022 [10][12] - The report outlines that the chemical industry has experienced three significant price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with the latest cycle characterized by a demand-driven recovery followed by a supply-side pressure [8][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with relatively low valuations, such as sucralose (recommended: Jinhe Industrial), pesticides (recommended: Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Shares), and MDI (recommended: Wanhua Chemical) [3][4] - It highlights the importance of domestic demand in countering tariff impacts, recommending companies in refrigerants and fertilizers [3][4] - The report identifies investment opportunities in sectors with upcoming capacity releases, such as organic silicon (recommended: Xin'an Chemical) and spandex [3][4] Price and Profitability Trends - The report notes that many sub-industry product prices remain at historical lows, with specific prices for spandex, PA6, and other fibers at 0%, 4%, and 5% of historical levels respectively [28] - It mentions that the chemical industry has seen a slight recovery in profitability in Q1 2025, although the overall performance remains under pressure [27][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the global chemical capital expenditure is on a downward trend, with domestic companies experiencing a slowdown in investment while still facing significant pressure to convert projects into fixed assets [22][32] - It also states that both domestic and international markets are entering a replenishment phase in 2025, which may influence inventory levels and pricing strategies [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for specific companies in the agricultural chemicals sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Runfeng Co., while recommending "Hold" for others like Haier and Guangxin Co. [20] Core Insights - The recent explosion incident has tightened the supply-demand dynamics for K-amine and other intermediates, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of the pesticide industry and potentially drive up nitrocellulose prices [5][12] - The agricultural chemicals sector is gradually returning to rationality, with high-priced inventories being depleted and procurement demand recovering, although supply-side pressures remain [5][12] - The report highlights the potential for stricter safety and environmental regulations following the recent incidents, which could further enhance the agricultural chemicals industry's cyclical recovery [5][12] Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic judgments indicate that oil prices are under pressure due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term [6] - The chemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in PPI, with April's chemical industry PPI showing a year-on-year decline of 3.2% [8] - The report notes that the recent explosion at a chemical facility has led to increased prices for K-amine and related products, with recommendations to focus on companies like Hongyang and Lier Chemical [5][12] Chemical Product Prices and Trends - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various chemical products, including a stable price for urea at 1830 RMB/ton and fluctuations in pesticide prices, with some herbicides seeing price increases [12][22] - The report indicates that the price of nitrocellulose has risen significantly, with export prices increasing from 2.06 USD/kg in October 2021 to 4.75 USD/kg in April 2025 [5][12] Company Recommendations - Specific companies are highlighted for investment based on their market positions and growth potential, including Yangnong Chemical, Runfeng Co., and others in the agricultural chemicals sector [20] - The report suggests monitoring companies with mature nitrochemical processes, such as Yangnong Chemical and Guangxin Co., due to expected regulatory changes [5][12]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the chemical industry, suggesting a new cycle may begin due to improved domestic supply and demand, increased global market share, and declining crude oil prices [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new cycle driven by domestic supply-demand improvements and global market share growth, despite potential short-term impacts from overseas demand [3][5]. - The report highlights that the supply side is gradually improving due to reduced fixed asset investment growth and government policies aimed at curbing excessive competition [5][10]. - On the demand side, domestic consumption is anticipated to recover steadily, supported by government initiatives to boost consumption and stabilize the economy [26][33]. - Cost factors are favorable, with significant declines in international crude oil and domestic coal prices, which will support the profitability of chemical products [42][49]. - The report recommends specific companies within various segments of the chemical industry, including refrigerants, amino acids, military and new materials, and fertilizers, indicating potential investment opportunities [5][57]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The report notes that the chemical industry has faced profitability pressures since 2022, but the current production cycle is nearing its end, which may lead to gradual improvement in profitability as capacity is digested [11][12]. - China's global market share in chemical products has been steadily increasing, with 2023 figures showing a 43.1% share of global sales [25][20]. Demand Side - The report emphasizes that domestic demand is expected to recover, aided by government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [26][33]. - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, which could further support demand for chemical products [33]. Cost Side - The report highlights a significant decline in crude oil prices, with Brent crude falling by 14.71% since the beginning of 2025, which is expected to positively impact the cost structure of the chemical industry [42][38]. - Domestic coal and natural gas prices have also shown a downward trend, enhancing the cost competitiveness of chemical products [49][47]. Valuation - The report indicates that the valuation of the basic chemical and petrochemical sectors is at historical lows, suggesting substantial room for recovery as market conditions improve [54][50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][5][13] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in profitability in 1Q25, with a focus on awaiting demand recovery [1][4] - The petrochemical logistics sector is facing downward pressure due to reduced demand, impacting the company's performance [4][5] - Long-term structural characteristics of the petrochemical industry in China suggest sustained demand for cross-regional transportation and storage [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of Rmb1,450 million, a decrease of 6.27% year-on-year, and a net profit of Rmb158 million, down 46.57% year-on-year [3][12] - For 1Q25, revenue was Rmb323 million, down 14.98% year-on-year, with a net profit of Rmb21 million, down 65.10% year-on-year [3][12] - The company's gross margin in 1Q25 was 43.94%, a decline of 8.76 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 6.49%, down 9.32 percentage points year-on-year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit is Rmb188 million for FY25, Rmb247 million for FY26, and Rmb294 million for FY27, with corresponding EPS of Rmb0.41, Rmb0.54, and Rmb0.64 respectively [5][13] - The target price is set at Rmb10.27 based on a 25x FY25E P/E ratio [5][13]