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最新研判,夏俊杰:2026年有五大投资机遇,但要警惕这一最大的潜在风险
3 6 Ke· 2026-01-19 02:36
Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates five major investment opportunities for 2026 while warning of three significant risks [1][2]. Investment Opportunities - **Systematic Revaluation of Low-Valuation Stocks**: The company believes that low-valuation stocks are due for a systematic revaluation, as the risk-free interest rate in China has declined rapidly over the past three years, yet valuations have not adjusted accordingly. With a significant amount of household deposits maturing in 2026, some funds are expected to flow into low-valuation sectors, similar to the valuation recovery seen in the South Korean stock market [2]. - **AI Sector Transition**: The company predicts that the AI sector will shift from a focus on computing power to applications and edge computing. It plans to invest in long-term opportunities such as autonomous driving and AI healthcare, while also exploring new terminal devices like smart glasses [2][3]. - **Stabilization of Consumer Spending**: Following a decline in household wealth due to the real estate downturn in 2025, the company expects consumer wealth to stabilize in 2026, supported by growth in deposits and other assets. Early signs of recovery are already visible in high-end consumption and luxury goods [2]. - **Selective Opportunities in "Anti-Competition" Trends**: The company suggests focusing on industries with simple competitive landscapes and fewer players, as opposed to sectors like photovoltaics and certain chemical sub-industries, which may experience delayed effects from anti-competition measures [3]. - **Local Market Development for Export Companies**: Companies that focus on local market service and job creation will likely see sustainable growth. Southeast Asia is highlighted as a key area due to its large population and cost advantages [3]. Risks - **Reversal of AI Trends**: The company identifies the potential reversal of trends in the AI industry as a significant risk for 2026. If application development does not progress, the investment logic in computing power may collapse, leading to volatility in global tech stocks [3]. - **Valuation Reversion in Small and Micro-Cap Stocks**: There is a risk of valuation reversion in small and micro-cap stocks, which currently have a transaction share far exceeding international norms. This could lead to concentrated releases of valuation pressure in the future [3]. - **Exchange Rate Fluctuation Risks**: The company warns of potential increased volatility in global currency exchange rates in 2026, which could erode returns from overseas investments due to currency losses [3].