1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The集运指数（欧线）is in a temporary volatile market. Although the first quarter has marginal positive factors from the rush - shipping of photovoltaic and battery products, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season of the European line from March to April. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts, such as rolling short - selling for the 2604 contract, and treating the 2606 contract as a wide - range volatile market [10][11][13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The 2604 contract of the集运指数（欧线）closed at 1132.2 points yesterday, down 1.77% with a reduction of 744 lots in positions; the 2606 contract closed at 1318.0 points, down 2.33% with an increase of 420 lots in positions [10]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The average FAK in the 4th week may be around $2600/FEU. Different shipping companies and alliances have different price trends, with most showing a downward or stable - to - downward trend [14]. 3.2 Capacity Side - **Capacity Adjustment**: The shipping schedules of the AEU7 and FE4 routes at the end of January are generally delayed. The capacity statistics in the 5th week (1/26 - 2/1) increased by 2 blank sailings, and the capacity statistics in February (2/2 - 3/1) decreased by 2 blank sailings. The weekly average capacity in March was revised up from 28.4 to 29.5 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% and a month - on - month increase of 5.2% [11]. - **Capacity Distribution around Spring Festival**: The Spring Festival suspension of shipping is mainly concentrated from the end of February to the first week of March. The average capacity before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 is 30.6, 23.4, and 32.2 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of - 0.1%, 9.1%, and 26.3% respectively, indicating greater capacity pressure after the festival [11]. 3.3 Geopolitical Side - The unstable situation in Iran has risen, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East may fluctuate. Maersk announced that its independently operated MECL route connecting the US East and India/Middle East will resume structural operations at the end of January and has prepared contingency plans [12]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Policy Impact**: The adjustment of export VAT rebate policies for photovoltaic and battery products may lead to 2 - 5 million TEU of transportation demand for the European line and 4 - 7 million TEU for the Europe - Mediterranean route being advanced from Q2 to Q1. The concentrated rush - shipping may occur from the end of February to March [13]. - **Loading Rate Concern**: The capacity level from February 23 to March 8 is relatively low, with an average of 20.1 million TEU/week. Attention should be paid to the loading rate during these two weeks. The probability of full - load and shipping companies announcing a GRI increase on March 1 is low, and it is difficult to change the over - capacity pattern in March [13]. 3.5 Contract Strategies - **2602 Contract**: The valuation may be around 1700 points. It is expected to have narrow - range, position - reducing fluctuations in the future [15]. - **2604 Contract**: Although there are marginal positive factors in the first quarter, the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season cannot be reversed. It can be considered for rolling short - selling in the next 1 - 2 months, with the upper pressure level in the range of 1200 - 1250 points [15]. - **2606 Contract**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend, and the trading strategy should be based on this wide - range volatility [15]. - **2610 Contract**: Short positions can be held as appropriate, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Gaza peace negotiation and the geopolitical situation in Iran [16]. 3.6 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the集运指数（欧线）is 0, indicating a neutral trend [17].