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对二甲苯:供需紧平衡,趋势偏强,正套PTA:三房巷新装置投产,正套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:27
2025年08月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:供需紧平衡,趋势偏强,正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:三房巷新装置投产,正套 | 2 | | MEG:趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:短期偏强,中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青:裂解续弱 | 8 | | LLDPE:短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP:短线反弹,中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱:短期回调,关注近月仓单压力 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:短期震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素:弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:短期偏强,中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG:进口成本存支撑,但供需缺乏明显改善 | 24 | | 丙烯:供需紧平衡,价格偏强整理 | 24 | | PVC:趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油:夜盘高位震荡,短期强势延续 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油:近月合约持续上涨,外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数 ...
集运指数(欧线):或延续弱势震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:20
2025 年 8 月 26 日 集运指数(欧线):或延续弱势震荡 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,358.0 | 2.57% | 39,234 | | 54,357 | 102 | 0.72 | | 0.47 | | | EC2512 | 1,696.7 | 0.50% | 7,289 | | 13,515 | 220 | 0.54 | | 0.63 | | | EC2602 | 1,496.9 | 0.78% | 1,070 | | 4,497 | 42 | 0.24 | | 0.31 | | | EC2510 - EC ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工-20250825
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 05:08
2025年08月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:趋势偏强,正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:趋势偏强,正套 | 2 | | MEG:趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:短期偏强,中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青:油价稍偏强,裂解愈回落 | 8 | | LLDPE:短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP:短线反弹,中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱:偏多对待 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇:短期震荡有支撑 | 17 | | 尿素:弱势运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯:短期偏强,中期偏空 | 21 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG:进口成本存支撑,但供需缺乏明显改善 | 23 | | 丙烯:供需紧平衡,价格偏强整理 | 23 | | PVC:短期震荡,趋势仍有压力 | 26 | | 燃料油:涨势明显,短期强势延续 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油:相对高硫偏弱,外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 27 | | 集运指数(欧线):弱势震荡 | ...
集运指数(欧线):弱势震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 03:16
2025 年 8 月 25 日 资料来源:同花顺 iFind,Geek Rate,公司官网,国泰君安期货研究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 集运指数(欧线):弱势震荡 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1:集运指数(欧线)基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2508 | 0.27% 2,127.7 | | 120 | 1,968 | -92 | 0.06 | 0.08 | | | EC2510 | 1,309.0 -1.82% | | 25,350 | 54,255 | -38 | 0.47 | 0.64 | | | EC2512 | 1,661.2 -4.62% | | 8,311 | 13,295 | 1,086 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250822
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:49
2025年08月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 对二甲苯:趋势偏强,正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:装置计划外停车,正套 | 2 | | MEG:趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:区间运行 | 6 | | 沥青:原油略强,裂解愈弱 | 8 | | LLDPE:区间震荡 | 11 | | PP:趋势偏弱,但低位追空要谨慎 | 12 | | 烧碱:偏多对待 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:区间震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素:仍在区间震荡内,但上方压力逐步增加 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:压缩利润 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG:宏观情绪溢价支撑,进口成本预期上涨 | 24 | | 丙烯:供需收紧,价格存支撑 | 24 | | PVC:短期震荡,趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油:震荡走势为主,短线转强 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油:偏弱怕盘整,外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 28 | | 集运指数(欧 ...
国投期货:综合晨报-20250820
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 06:55
Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].
对二甲苯:成本支撑偏弱,但终端需求改善,月差仍偏强,PTA:弱现实强预期,月差反套
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 01:27
2025年08月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:成本支撑偏弱,但终端需求改善,月差仍偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:弱现实强预期,月差反套 | 2 | | MEG:本周到港偏低,基差走强 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡偏弱 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:短线回调,中期仍为区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青:出货未见好,原油难偏多 | 8 | | LLDPE:区间震荡 | 11 | | PP:趋势偏弱,但低位追空要谨慎 | 12 | | 烧碱:偏多对待,但需注意近月仓单情况 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡偏弱 | 14 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇:震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素:短期消息面驱动,上方空间收窄 | 19 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG:近月挤仓风险仍在 | 22 | | 丙烯:成本支撑偏弱 | 22 | | PVC:趋势偏弱 | 25 | | 燃料油:弱势震荡走势为主,短期波动缩小 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油:窄幅盘整,外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 26 | | 集运指数(欧线):震荡整理,1 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250819
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-19 01:57
Report Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers individual outlooks for various commodities. Core Views - The overall market for energy and chemical commodities shows a mixed trend, with some commodities in a short - term or mid - term oscillation, while others face upward or downward pressure [2]. - The supply and demand relationship, cost factors, and policy environment are the main factors affecting the price trends of different commodities. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply increases while demand decreases, but terminal demand improvement may limit the downside space. The processing fee is under downward pressure. China's PX operating rate is 84.3% (+2.3%), and Asia's is 74% (+0.4%) [10]. - **PTA**: Supply is marginally tightened, and the price rebounded at the end of the session. The 9 - 1 spread is recommended for reverse arbitrage. Polyester operating rate is expected to increase to 91.5% in September [11]. - **MEG**: Supply increases, and it is in a range - bound market. The 9 - 1 spread should be operated within the - 50~0 range, and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage is recommended [11]. Rubber - Rubber is in an oscillatory state. The inventory in Qingdao area decreased slightly, and the cost support from overseas raw material prices weakened. The market lacks a clear direction [12][15]. Synthetic Rubber - The upside space is narrowing. In the short - term, the support from butadiene weakens, while in the medium - term, it is in a range - bound market due to policy support and low - chasing reluctance [16][18]. Asphalt - The shipment is not good, and it is difficult for crude oil to be bullish. The refinery operating rate decreased to 35.61%, and the inventory increased by 3.2% [19][34]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound market. Cost decreases, supply pressure increases, and demand will improve gradually. Inventory provides some support [36][37]. PP - The trend is weak, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious. Cost is weak, demand has no obvious highlights, and supply pressure increases [40][41]. Caustic Soda - It should be treated bullishly, but attention should be paid to the near - month warehouse receipts. Demand is expanding, and export support is strong, but supply may be affected by the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries [44]. Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillatory state. Supply lacks elasticity, port inventory is at a medium - high level, and demand is weak [47][50]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the price is slightly weak [55]. Methanol - The near - end pressure is large, and it is in a weak operation. Port inventory accumulates rapidly, but there is support at low levels due to policy and fundamental factors [58][61]. Urea - Urea is in a range - bound operation. Inventory increases, demand is slow, but short - selling at low levels is reluctant due to policy and market uncertainty [63][65]. Styrene - Styrene is in a profit - compression state. It is mainly oscillatory in the short - term, with downstream inventory accumulating and the peak - season restocking power weakening [66][67]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. Supply increases, and demand is average. It is expected to be lightly stable and oscillatory in the short - term [68][70]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The short - term valuation is reasonable, and it is in an oscillatory state. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand tighten, and the price has certain support [72]. PVC - PVC is in a weak trend. The anti - dumping tax in India affects exports, supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory accumulates [79]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The market is weakly oscillatory, and the short - term weakness continues. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility intensifies, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the external market is temporarily stable [82]. Container Freight Index (European Route) - It is in an oscillatory consolidation state, and 10 short positions can be held at discretion. Freight rates show different trends, with European routes decreasing and US - West routes increasing [84].
综合晨报-20250818
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 05:22
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with various commodities and financial products presenting different trends. Commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy expectations. Financial products are influenced by macro - economic data and policy orientations. - Investors should adopt different strategies according to the characteristics of different products, including holding options, going long or short, and paying attention to price resistance levels and inventory changes. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Commodities - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices fluctuated. The SC09 contract was relatively weak, falling 0.71% due to position - shifting. After the US - Russia presidential meeting, the risk of Russian oil sanctions weakened, and oil prices further declined. Continue to hold the long - straddle strategy of out - of - the - money crude oil options [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The US retail sales monthly rate announced on Friday was in line with expectations, and precious metals had limited fluctuations. After the positive signals from the US - Russia meeting over the weekend, the adjustment of precious metals may continue [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated narrowly last Friday. The market expects a high probability of a September interest rate cut. The 2508 contract entered delivery with a spot premium. It is advisable to hold short positions at high levels [4]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum declined slightly on Friday. The downstream start - up is stable, and the inventory reduction is slowing down. The short - term trend is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: Low inventory supports the LME zinc price. The SHFE zinc has priced in the weak reality and expectations. The short - term directional signal is weak, and the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds [8]. - **Lead**: The SMM aluminum social inventory increased. The lead price has limited downward space. It is advisable to hold long positions based on 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the end - of - life call option opportunities [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel rebounded. The market is expected to return to fundamentals. Pay attention to inventory changes [10]. - **Tin**: Both domestic and international tin prices rebounded last Friday. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [11]. - **Non - Ferrous Metal Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum. The spot - to - AL cross - variety spread may gradually narrow [6]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity is at a historical high, and there is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures [7]. - **Energy - Related Products** - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and both LU and FU are under pressure [22]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures fluctuated narrowly. The 8 - month production plan decreased, and the cost - side weakness puts pressure on BU [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, and the price is stabilizing. The futures are in a low - level oscillation [24]. - **Chemical Products** - **Urea**: The agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand is loose. The market may oscillate within a range [25]. - **Methanol**: The import volume is high, and the port inventory is increasing. The downstream "Golden September and Silver October" demand is approaching [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is falling, and the fundamentals are improving. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [27]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The futures are in a consolidation pattern. The supply increases, and the demand lacks upward drive [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene sales are weak, polyethylene production enterprises are inclined to raise prices, and polypropylene is under supply pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and caustic soda is strong in the short - term but may face supply pressure in the long - term [30]. - **PX & PTA**: The prices rebounded and then declined. Pay attention to the oil price direction and demand recovery [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is oscillating at 4400 yuan/ton. The short - term trend is low - level oscillation [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Short - fiber may be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip has long - term over - capacity pressure [33]. - **Glass**: The industry may accumulate inventory. Consider a low - long strategy near the cost [34]. - **20 - Number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for RU and a bullish strategy for NR and BR [35]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the short - term news is disturbing. The long - term supply pressure exists [36]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products** - **Soybeans & Bean Meal**: The USDA August report is bullish for US soybeans. Domestic soybean imports are expected, and bean meal is cautiously bullish [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Pay attention to the crop inspection results of US soybeans and policy changes in Indonesia. Increase the expected price fluctuation range [38]. - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed weather impact is small. The mid - term strategy is to be bullish, and the short - term trend is expected to be stable and oscillatory [39]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The recent auctions may drag down the price. Pay attention to the price difference with imported soybeans [40]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Corn**: The US corn price is falling, and the domestic corn may continue to be weak at the bottom [41]. - **Pigs**: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The spot price may decline, and the futures can be hedged at high prices [42]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is rising seasonally. The futures still face over - capacity pressure [43]. - **Cotton**: US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton are both oscillating strongly. Consider a low - buying strategy [44]. - **Sugar**: US sugar is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price may oscillate [45]. - **Apples**: The market focuses on the new - season output estimate. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [46]. - **Timber**: The supply - demand situation is improving. Pay attention to whether the futures price can stop falling and stabilize [47]. - **Pulp**: The pulp is oscillating strongly. Consider a low - buying strategy [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Most broad - based indexes rose, and the policy focus is shifting to the structure. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [49]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures mostly fell. The yield curve may steepen in the future [50].
集运指数(欧线)观点:10空单酌情持有;关注商品宏观情绪扰动-20250817
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 12:15
集运指数(欧线)观点: 10空单酌情持有;关注商品宏观情绪扰动 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0015892 日期:2025年8月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数(欧线)观点总结:10空单酌情持有;关注商品宏观情绪扰动 过去一周,8月运力从32.5下修至31.4万TEU/周,主要变化在于34周新增3条空班,分别是马士基AE1航线AL MURAYKH(19kTEU,青岛维修中),阳明FP2航线YM TOGETHER(11kTEU,在日本神户撞船)以及MSC Britannia航线MSC GIUSY(16kTEU,主动停航);故34周运力从之前的34.2下修为30.9万TEU。 供应 9月待定数量增加1艘至2艘、空班增加1艘至6艘,周均运力从30.8下修至29.4万TEU/周,主要变化在于:①37周长荣CES航线新增1艘空班;②38周MSC Britannia航 线新增1艘空班;③39周长荣 ...