1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry - wide investment ratings. However, it provides trend strength for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, LLDPE, PP, LPG, and propylene have a trend strength of 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook; while most other commodities such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, etc., have a trend strength of 0, suggesting a neutral outlook; and PX, PTA, and MEG have a trend strength of - 1, showing a relatively negative short - term outlook [11][13][16]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes various energy and chemical commodities, highlighting the impact of factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand dynamics, and cost changes on commodity prices. Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, are a major factor affecting the market, causing supply disruptions and price fluctuations. For example, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects the supply of raw materials such as naphtha and crude oil, which in turn impacts downstream products [22][58]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations. Some commodities face supply contractions, such as PX and MEG in April, while others have stable or increasing supply, like PVC. Demand also varies, with some downstream industries showing weak demand, such as the textile and paper industries, while others have relatively stable or growing demand [4][8][33]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a short - term oscillating market, there is a contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. Although the inventory is sufficient, supply may decrease in April. It is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX [4][11]. - **PTA**: Also in a short - term oscillating market, with sufficient supply in the short term but expected supply contraction in April. It is advisable not to chase high prices but to buy on dips and maintain a positive spread operation when the 5 - 9 spread is below 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **MEG**: In a short - term high - level oscillating market. Supply is expected to decrease in April, with a reduction in imports from the Middle East and an increase in exports. The port inventory is expected to decline faster, and the 5 - 9 spread should be in a positive spread operation [12]. Rubber - In a wide - range oscillating market. As of March 29, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased slightly. Some tire enterprises plan to have short - term maintenance, and the upward space of the natural rubber market is limited due to factors such as the high level of overseas raw material prices and the weakening boost of synthetic rubber [13][14][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In an intraday wide - range oscillating market. The inventory of butadiene decreased this week, and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased. The basic situation provides support for prices, but geopolitical conflicts may increase price volatility [16][17][18]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. The cost of PE increases due to geopolitical factors, and the supply of standard products is expected to decline in April [20][22]. - **PP**: In April, the number of cracking and PDH maintenance increases, providing strong supply support. The cost of C3 is supported, and the demand improves after the resumption of work by downstream enterprises [21][22]. Caustic Soda - At a low valuation level. Although there is short - term pressure such as delivery and high inventory, the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve in the long - term, and the market is expected to be strong. It is necessary to track overseas device dynamics and Chinese export signing situations [26][28]. Pulp - In an oscillating operation. The demand is weak, the market trading of softwood pulp is light, and the price of hardwood pulp is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the inventory reduction at ports and the change in downstream replenishment willingness [30][33]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The downstream orders are weak, and the processing plants purchase on demand. The trading is slightly slow [35][36]. Methanol - In a high - level oscillating market. The spot price is adjusted differently, and the port inventory continues to decline. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the price is expected to be strong, and the upper limit of valuation is affected by geopolitical factors [38][41][42]. Urea - In a short - term oscillating operation. The domestic basic situation is neutral to strong, and the price is expected to be range - bound. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro - information on the market sentiment [44][45][46]. Styrene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease in April and May, and the export of styrene increases. The market is expected to continue to reduce inventory and follow the price increase [47][48]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The production of soda ash enterprises is stable, the downstream demand is tepid, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly adjusted [53][55]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently. Saudi Aramco's CP price in April increased. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [58][64][65]. - **Propylene**: The basic situation provides support, and the trend is still relatively strong. The price of propylene has certain fluctuations, and the operating rates of related industries have changed [59][63]. PVC - In a wide - range oscillating market. In the short - term, high inventory needs time to digest, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced PVC. In the long - term, geopolitical factors and cost increases will support the market [67]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price decreased, and it maintains a high level in the short - term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is relatively stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounds [70]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - The spot loading is under pressure. The 04 contract oscillates and consolidates, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The supply of shipping capacity has certain changes, and the demand and freight rates are affected by multiple factors [72][80][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: In a high - level oscillating market. The futures price decreased, the factory's spot price was stable, and the sales rate was low [85][86]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillating market. The upstream raw materials fluctuated and decreased, the factory's quotation was mostly reduced, and the market trading atmosphere rebounded slightly [85][86]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the paper mills are producing normally, the dealers' enthusiasm for picking up goods is not high, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists [88][89][91]. Pure Benzene - In a relatively strong oscillating market. The port inventory decreased, the price in the Shandong market increased, and the market price fluctuated due to macro - news and production reduction expectations [93][94][95].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is the core factor affecting the market, with significant impacts on the prices of various commodities and financial products. The short - term price fluctuations of many commodities are large, and long - term trends depend on the development of the situation in the Middle East [2]. - The Fed's stance on interest rates and inflation also has an impact on the market. Powell's remarks have suppressed the expectation of interest rate hikes [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Energy and Petrochemicals - **Crude Oil**: The possibility of a short - term negotiation agreement between Iran and the US is extremely low. The geopolitical situation is unclear, and the short - term oil price has a large two - way fluctuation risk. The long - term trend depends on the smoothness of the Strait of Hormuz [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the core trading logic. The supply shock in the Middle East has not eased, and the crude - oil related products have strong fundamental support. The absolute price of fuel oil is firm, but the cracking spread has recently declined [20]. - **Asphalt**: Due to concerns about imported raw materials, asphalt supply has shrunk. The price follows the trend of crude oil, and the fundamental improvement gives it upward elasticity [21]. - **Urea**: The market continues to be in high - level consolidation. The daily production has slightly declined, and the agricultural demand is in a phased gap. The industrial downstream support is acceptable. Under the influence of policies, the market is expected to remain generally stable with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased, the downstream device start - up has increased, and the market is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts and the sustainability of downstream high profits [23]. - **Pure Benzene**: The domestic petroleum benzene device has many shutdowns and load reductions, and the import has weakened. The port inventory is in the seasonal destocking cycle. It follows the raw material fluctuations, and the situation evolution and supply reduction should be continuously monitored [24]. - **Benzene Ethylene**: The cost - side support exists and dominates the market. The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to weaken, but the expectation of supply reduction is still fermenting [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The supply of propylene is expected to decline, and the demand has improved. The supply pressure of polyethylene is not large, and the demand has increased slightly. The supply of polypropylene has tightened, but the downstream purchasing willingness is low [26]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, and the export is expected to be good. Caustic soda is in a weak and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical impact [27]. - **PX & PTA**: The US - Iran situation is tense, and the prices of PX and PTA are volatile. PTA is burdened by inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The load has slightly decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the downstream recovery is slow. The supply is expected to tighten, and it is expected to be in high - level oscillation [29]. Metals - **Copper**: The market is still evaluating the ground - combat risk in the Middle East. The overall downward adjustment risk should be noted, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [3]. - **Aluminum**: The overseas shortage expectation has increased, but the short - term war situation is difficult to ease. It is in high - level oscillation and should not be chased up [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the spread with Shanghai aluminum remains around one thousand yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. The cost has increased with the ocean freight. The new plants in Guangxi are about to be put into production, and it is in oscillation waiting for the Guinean mining policy to be clear [6]. - **Zinc**: The overseas mine supply is tight, the cost support is strong, and the domestic downstream demand shows the characteristics of the peak season. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to be in range oscillation [7]. - **Lead**: The price is in low - level consolidation. The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and it is advisable to try to go long at a low level according to the cost logic [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The market is under pressure from the strong US dollar. The demand is less than expected, the inventory is high, and it is in a weak oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: The price is in a downward trend. The consumption premium has cooled, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is in a strong oscillation, and the short - term view is to maintain oscillation. Attention should be paid to the demand change in April [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall demand is weak, and the price upward drive depends on the supply side. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is under pressure, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is expected to recover, the demand is improving marginally, and the disk is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream iron - water production has increased slightly. The disk is affected by the geopolitical conflict and is easy to rise but difficult to fall [15][16]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost is expected to rise, the demand has increased, and the overall inventory has decreased. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflict [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is in a strong oscillation, the demand has resilience, the supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory has decreased [18]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The expected US new - season soybean planting area has increased. The domestic soybean crushing volume is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to multiple factors such as the US - Iran situation [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is strong due to the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. Attention should be paid to the procurement trend of Indonesian methanol, the US planting report, and the climate [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The supply is expected to increase, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term [35]. - **Domestic Soybeans**: The price has stopped falling and rebounded. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Middle East situation on energy prices [36]. - **Corn**: The price may be affected by the increase in wheat auctions. The futures are weak, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [37]. - **Hogs**: The far - month contracts are weak, the industry capacity reduction power is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year [38]. - **Eggs**: The egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline in the next five months, and the spot price has the basis to strengthen. Attention should be paid to whether the futures price stabilizes and rises at a low level [39]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen, and the planting area is expected to decrease. The domestic cotton inventory is at a relatively high level, and the medium - term strategy is to be bullish [40]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the new - season Brazilian sugar production is expected to decline. Domestically, it is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and attention should be paid to the weather [41]. - **Apples**: The futures price has corrected at a high level, and the trading logic is mainly on the demand side. It is advisable to wait and see [42]. - **Timber**: The supply is expected to be tight in the short term, the demand is recovering, and the low inventory supports the price. It is advisable to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are average, the port inventory is at a high level, and it is expected to be in low - level range oscillation [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has bottomed out and rebounded. The short - term focus is on whether there is positive progress in geopolitical issues. It is advisable to go long on dips for broad - based indexes [45]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures have risen significantly, and the curve is expected to continue to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The SCFIS European route index has risen. The supply in early April is still relatively loose, and the airlines may try to raise prices in late April. The near - and far - month contracts have different trends [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it offers trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment tendencies: - **Strongly Bullish**: None - **Bullish**: PX, MEG, LLDPE, PP,烧碱, LPG,丙烯,尿素 - **Neutral**: PTA, rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, glass, methanol, benzene, styrene, soda ash, PVC, short - fiber, bottle - chip, offset printing paper, pure benzene, container shipping index (European line) - **Bearish**: fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [9][10][12] 2. Core Views of the Report - **PX, PTA, MEG**: In the short - term, they are in a volatile market, and in the medium - term, they tend to be bullish. PX faces the contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand. PTA has ample supply in the short - term but is expected to see a decline in inventory in April. MEG has a significant reduction in supply, with a clear decrease in Middle - East sources and a decline in domestic production capacity utilization [9][10]. - **Rubber**: It shows wide - range fluctuations. The rise in raw material prices in the tire industry has led to increased costs and reduced profits. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the downstream demand recovery is slow [12][14]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations during the day. The decline in butadiene inventory has reduced the fundamental pressure on the synthetic rubber industry chain. Geopolitical conflicts may increase intraday volatility [16][18]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE's supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. PP will see an increase in cracking and PDH maintenance in April, with strong supply support. Geopolitical factors have increased the cost of raw materials, and the demand side shows different trends [19][20]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is at a low valuation level and may show a bullish - biased oscillatory trend later. Although there are short - term factors such as delivery pressure and high inventory, the expected improvement in domestic supply - demand contradictions and the potential increase in procurement prices support the market [24][25]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in an oscillatory operation. The market lacks clear news guidance, and the upstream - downstream supply - demand contradiction persists. Attention should be paid to the changes in external market prices and downstream replenishment willingness [30][31]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The downstream orders are weak, and the processing plants purchase on demand, with slightly slow recent transactions [34][35]. - **Methanol**: It shows a bullish - biased oscillatory trend. Geopolitical conflicts have led to a decrease in expected imports from Iran, and the port inventory is expected to decline [37][41]. - **Urea**: The price center moves up. The domestic fundamentals are in a neutral - to - bullish pattern, but policy constraints limit the upside space. It is expected to operate within a range [43][46]. - **Styrene**: It shows a bullish - biased oscillatory trend. The reduction in Asian pure - benzene supply, the increase in styrene exports, and the active replenishment of other downstream industries support the price [47][48]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little. The supply of soda - ash enterprises is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is tepid, with a lack of obvious driving factors [53][55]. - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances. Propylene has fundamental support and a bullish trend. Geopolitical factors affect the price and supply of LPG, and the fundamentals of propylene are relatively strong [59][63]. - **PVC**: It shows wide - range fluctuations. In the short - term, high inventory needs time to digest, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. In the long - term, geopolitical factors and supply disturbances support the market [67][68]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil maintains a high level in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market continues to decline [71]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The spot loading is under pressure. The near - month contract 2604 fluctuates in a narrow range, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors. The supply and demand situation and geopolitical factors affect the market [73][83]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: They are in a high - level oscillatory state, and the cost drive is still upward. The prices of upstream raw materials affect the prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip, and the market trading atmosphere is general [89][90]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see attitude. The market price is relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [92][93]. - **Pure Benzene**: It shows a bullish - biased oscillatory trend. The decline in port inventory and the increase in market prices support the price [97][98]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The closing price of the main contract was 9840 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The spot price was 1275.67 US dollars/ton, up 12 US dollars. An East - China 100 - million - ton PX device is scheduled for maintenance. The price is affected by the contradiction between cost and demand, and it is recommended to go long on SC and short on PX, and go long on BZ and short on PX [5][9]. - **PTA**: The closing price of the main contract was 6768 yuan/ton, down 1.57%. A 70 - million - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China, restarted. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on EB and short on PTA [5][10]. - **MEG**: The closing price of the main contract was 5359 yuan/ton, up 1.52%. The port inventory was about 107.5 million tons, up 3.6 million tons. A 180 - million - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol device had part of its units restarted and part scheduled for maintenance. The supply is tight, and the 5 - 9 month spread should be in a long position [5][10]. Rubber - The closing price of the main contract was 16,540 yuan/ton during the day and 16,555 yuan/ton at night. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The price of tire raw materials increased, and the profit of tires decreased. The market is affected by geopolitical factors and downstream demand [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The closing price of the main contract of cis - butadiene rubber was 17,725 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The butadiene inventory decreased, and the synthetic rubber market is affected by geopolitical conflicts [16][18]. LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: The closing price of the L2605 contract was 8804 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. The plastic start - up rate was 74%. The supply contraction continues, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and cost transmission [19][20]. - **PP**: The closing price of the PP2605 contract was 9269 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The start - up rate of PP decreased to 66%. The supply is supported by increased maintenance in April, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices [19][20]. Caustic Soda - The 05 - contract futures price was 2353 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 760 yuan/ton. Although there are short - term pressures, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to improve [24][25]. Paper Pulp - The closing price of the main contract was 5182 yuan/ton during the day and 5162 yuan/ton at night. The trading volume and open interest decreased. The market lacks clear guidance, and the supply - demand contradiction persists [30][31]. Glass - The closing price of the FG605 contract was 1040 yuan/ton, up 0.39%. The domestic float - glass market price was generally stable, and the downstream orders were weak [34][35]. Methanol - The closing price of the main contract was 3319 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. The methanol spot price index increased, and the port inventory decreased. Geopolitical factors support the price [38][41]. Urea - The closing price of the main contract was 1882 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The enterprise inventory decreased, and the market is in a neutral - to - bullish pattern, with the price center moving up [44][46]. Styrene - The closing price of the 2604 contract was 10,811 yuan/ton, up 144 yuan. The reduction in pure - benzene supply, the increase in exports, and the active replenishment of downstream industries support the price [47][48]. Soda Ash - The closing price of the SA2605 contract was 1207 yuan/ton, down 1.71%. The domestic soda - ash market was stable with light trading, and the supply and demand were tepid [53][55]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The closing price of the PG2604 contract was 6616 yuan/ton, down 3.20%. Geopolitical risks and supply disturbances affect the market [59][64]. - **Propylene**: The closing price of the PL2605 contract was 8944 yuan/ton, down 0.62%. The fundamentals are supported, and the trend is bullish [59][63]. PVC - The 05 - contract futures price was 5551 yuan/ton, and the East - China spot price was 5450 yuan/ton. In the short - term, high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase, while in the long - term, geopolitical factors support the market [67][68]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The closing price of the FU2605 contract was 4619 yuan/ton, up 3.47%. It maintains a high level in the short - term [71]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The closing price of the LU2605 contract was 5285 yuan/ton, up 2.48%. It remains weak, and the price difference with high - sulfur fuel oil continues to decline [71]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The closing price of the EC2604 contract was 1735.0, down 3.80%. The spot loading is under pressure, the near - month contract fluctuates in a narrow range, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors [73][83]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Short - Fiber**: The closing price of the 2604 contract was 8278 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan. The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price increased. The sales were light [89][90]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The closing price of the 2604 contract was 8368 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan. The upstream raw material price increased, and the market trading atmosphere was general [89][90]. Offset Printing Paper - The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets were relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction persisted. It is advisable to wait and see [92][93]. Pure Benzene - The closing price of the BZ2605 contract was 9062 yuan/ton, up 182 yuan. The port inventory decreased, and the market price increased [97][98].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**:烧碱, LLDPE, PP, 对二甲苯, LPG, 丙烯, 棕榈油, 白糖 [8][105][90][146][188][202] - **Neutral Outlook**:黄金, 白银, 铜, 铅, 锡, 氧化铝, 铂, 钯, 镍, 不锈钢, 碳酸锂, 工业硅, 螺纹钢, 热轧卷板, 硅铁, 锰硅, 焦炭, 焦煤, 纸浆, 玻璃, 甲醇, 苯乙烯, 纯碱, PVC, 橡胶, 合成橡胶, 短纤, 瓶片, 胶版印刷纸, 纯苯, 豆油, 豆粕, 豆一, 玉米, 棉花, 鸡蛋, 花生 [17][20][26][29][37][49][59][63][72][77][80][114][121][124][134][140][154][97][102][176][179][184][188][196][199][206][211][218] - **Negative Outlook**:铁矿石, 动力煤, 原木, 燃料油, 低硫燃料油, 生猪 [68][84][86][158][214] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Market Trends**: The market is influenced by geopolitical tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors. For example, the situation in the Middle East affects the supply of raw materials and the production of related industries [7][111][154]. - **Investment Strategies**: For some commodities, it is recommended to buy on dips, such as in the case of 碳酸锂. For others, pay attention to spread trading opportunities, like in the 集运指数 (欧线) [59][172]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver show a neutral trend. Geopolitical tensions are easing, and silver has fallen from its oscillation platform [17]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price recovery. The production of refined copper in China from January to February increased year - on - year, while the import of scrap copper decreased [20][22]. - **Zinc**: It shows a slightly bullish trend, with prices oscillating upwards [23]. - **Lead**: Lacks driving forces, and prices are oscillating [26]. - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval [29]. - **Aluminum**: Supply issues continue to intensify. Alumina oscillates weakly, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [33]. - **Nickel**: The marginal slowdown of inventory accumulation and the increase in the cost of pyrometallurgical production supported by the ore end. Stainless steel prices oscillate due to the game between demand and cost [49]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fossil Fuels**: - **Coal**:动力煤 has a short - term downward pressure due to weakening sentiment. Coke and 焦煤 oscillate widely [84][80]. - **Oil - related Products**: Fuel oil remains at a high level in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil is still weak [158]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA, 对二甲苯, MEG**: PTA and 对二甲苯 are in a short - term oscillating market and are expected to be bullish in the medium - term. MEG has a tight supply and a bullish medium - term trend [90]. - **Rubber and Synthetic Rubber**: Rubber oscillates widely, and synthetic rubber oscillates widely within a day [97][102]. - **LLDPE and PP**: LLDPE's supply contraction continues, and there is a structural differentiation. PP's supply is strongly supported by increased cracking and PDH maintenance in April [105]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is currently at a low valuation and is expected to oscillate strongly in the later period [8][110]. - **Methanol**: Oscillates strongly [124]. - **Urea**: The price center moves up [130]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Benzene oscillates strongly, and styrene oscillates slightly bullishly [134][184]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market changes little [140]. - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has geopolitical risks and frequent supply disturbances. Propylene has fundamental support and a bullish trend [146]. - **PVC**: Oscillates widely. The high inventory needs time to digest, but the market is expected to be supported in the long - term [154]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: - **Soybeans and Related Products**: Soybeans and soybean meal oscillate. The market is waiting for the USDA report. Palm oil shows a short - term bullish performance due to B50 news, and soybean oil focuses on the quarterly inventory and planting intention report [188][196]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to policy auctions [199]. - **Sugar**: Oscillates strongly [202]. - **Cotton**: The domestic market lacks new driving forces [206]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Eggs**: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices in the far - month contracts [211]. - **Pigs**: The de - stocking is less than expected, and the price center continues to move down [214]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase by oil mills [218]. Transportation - **集运 Index (欧线)**: The spot loading is under pressure. The near - month contract 2604 oscillates narrowly, and the far - month contracts fluctuate with geopolitical factors [160].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Near - month contract 2604 shows narrow - range fluctuations, with 04 basically at par with the week 15 spot freight rate of 1700 - 1800 points. Attention should be paid to Maersk's week 16 cabin opening guidance in the next two days to determine the basic positioning of the second - phase delivery settlement price of 2604. Contract 2605 is expected to mainly follow the real - world fluctuations and gradually narrow the premium over 2604. Contracts 2606 and the far - month ones fluctuate widely following geopolitical situations. In the short - term, geopolitical tensions are difficult to truly subside, resulting in large unilateral fluctuations. Seasonal spread opportunities for trading at low prices can be appropriately considered [12]. Summary of Related Sections 1. Futures Contract Data - **Contract Performance**: EC2604 closed at 1,735.0 with a daily decline of 3.80%, trading volume of 9,616, and open interest of 9,262 with a decrease of 1,468. EC2606 closed at 2,385.0 with a daily decline of 1.73%, trading volume of 11,021, and open interest of 14,153 with an increase of 322. EC2608 closed at 2,403.0 with a daily decline of 0.12%, trading volume of 809, and open interest of 2,642 with a decrease of 155. EC2610 closed at 1,595.2 with a daily increase of 0.02%, trading volume of 1,148, and open interest of 7,164 with a decrease of 29 [1]. 2. Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS**: The European route index was 1,693.26 points with a weekly increase of 8.8%, and the US - West route index was 1,024.11 points with a weekly decrease of 7.7%. The SCFI European route was $1,703/TEU with a bi - weekly increase of 4.1%, and the US - West route was $2,352/FEU with a bi - weekly increase of 14.5% [1][2]. 3. Spot Freight Rates - **European Route**: Different carriers' spot freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary. For example, Maersk's price for a 40'HC is $2,450 and for a 20'GP is $1,465, with a 38 - day voyage; MSC's price for a 40'HC is $2,852 and for a 20'GP is $1,706, with a 42 - day voyage [2]. 4. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index was 100.18, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.92 [2]. 5. Shipping Capacity - **April**: The latest weekly average shipping capacity was 31.9 million TEU/week, with the first and second half - months being 32.5 and 31.4 million TEU/week respectively. In the first half - month of April, the week 15 MSC Britannia has returned to normal ship deployment. In the second half - month, 2 blank sailings are from COSCO (&OOCL). - **May**: The shipping capacity is 31.6 million TEU/week. The reduction in shipping capacity in the past week mainly comes from 3 sailings suspended by the PA Alliance after the May Day holiday. There are 4 pending voyages in May, 2 each from the OA and Gemini Alliances [10]. 6. Market Situation - **Supply - side**: The shipping capacity in April and May has certain fluctuations, mainly affected by blank sailings and pending voyages. - **Demand - side**: With the upgrade of PA ship group routes, there are differences in shipping company loading. The FE4 route in Shanghai Port faces great cargo - collection pressure, especially for ONE with the largest cabin share. The market loading floor depends on the cargo - collection situation of this route. Currently, the second - week FE4 ONE is not fully loaded, which drags down the price of water - transfer ships in the second half - month [11]. - **Valuation**: In the first week of April (week 14), the freight rate center was close to $2,600/FEU. It is expected that the SCFIS index on April 6 may be in the range of 1,820 - 1,950 points. In the second week of April (week 15), the market freight rate center is expected to fall back to around $2,450/FEU, equivalent to about 1,700 - 1,800 points in SCFIS, which is included in the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract. In the second half of April, the basis for price increases is weak in terms of supply - demand, and the increase in oil prices weakens the shipping companies' motivation to reduce prices in terms of operating costs [12]. 7. Geopolitical Situation - There are continuous developments in the Iran - related geopolitical situation, including Iran's military actions, statements on the Strait of Hormuz, and the negotiation situation with the US. The threat in the Red Sea and the Strait of Mandeb remains active. The most significant impact on the container shipping market may be the interference with the oil exports from Yanbu Port, which brings the risk of rising fuel costs for shipping companies [9][11][13].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a consolidation trend with a trading volume rising to 1.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% increase from the previous trading day [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3923.29 points, up 0.24%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.25% and 0.68% respectively, indicating a mixed performance among the major indices [7] - The market displayed resilience despite external pressures from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with a notable internal digestion of funds [8] Sector Performance - The leading sectors included non-ferrous metals, military industry, and textiles, with respective increases of 1.79%, 1.47%, and 1.41%, indicating a shift of funds towards resource and manufacturing sectors [6] - Conversely, the electricity utilities and new energy sectors experienced declines, with drops of 2.25% and 1.54%, suggesting a phase of adjustment for previously defensive sectors [8] Bond Market - The bond market saw a general rise in government bond futures, with the 30-year bond futures increasing by 0.38% and the 10-year bond futures up by 0.15%, reflecting a positive sentiment in the bond market supported by ample liquidity [12] - The People's Bank of China continued to provide liquidity support through open market operations, resulting in a net injection of 2615 billion yuan [12] Commodity Market - The commodity index rose by 0.97%, with the shipping index (European line) showing a strong correlation with energy and chemical products [10] - Key commodities such as lithium carbonate and pure benzene saw significant increases, while some agricultural products faced declines, indicating a mixed performance across different commodity categories [10] Trading Hotspots - Recent hot sectors include artificial intelligence, commercial aerospace, and nuclear fusion, driven by policy support and technological advancements [15] - The shipping index's significant rise of 6.32% reflects the market's recalibration of risks associated with geopolitical tensions affecting global shipping supply chains [15] Strategic Insights - The report suggests that while geopolitical tensions and oil price shocks may continue to suppress global risk appetite, the A-share market has shown a degree of independence, focusing on internal structural opportunities [16] - The bond market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern due to continued liquidity support, while the commodity market is likely to revolve around geopolitical risk premiums and supply contraction expectations [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention industry - wide investment ratings but provides individual product trend intensities, which can be used as a reference for investment. For instance, products like PX, MEG, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, methanol, urea, styrene, LPG, propylene, PVC, pure benzene have a trend intensity of 1 (indicating a relatively strong trend); glass, soda ash, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, short - fiber, bottle - chip, double - offset paper, and the container shipping index (European line) have a trend intensity of 0 (indicating a neutral trend) [10][17][21][25][35][39][40][56][61][63][77][79][81][89] 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The geopolitical situation, especially the conflict in the Middle East, has a significant impact on the energy and chemical industries. It affects supply, demand, and prices of various products. For example, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts shipping and supply chains, leading to supply shortages and price fluctuations [6][8][11][19][24][33][41][61][76] - **Product - specific**: - **PX, PTA, MEG**: Short - term is a volatile market, and medium - term is still bullish. The supply of MEG is tight, and the medium - term trend is strong. The key lies in the contradiction between high raw material costs and weak downstream demand, as well as supply disruptions caused by the Middle East situation [4][11][12][13] - **Synthetic rubber**: The price fluctuates widely during the day, and the price center moves up. The decline in butadiene inventory and geopolitical conflicts reduce the fundamental pressure of the synthetic rubber industry chain [14][17] - **LLDPE and PP**: The start - up rate of LLDPE continues to decline, and raw material prices adjust under negative feedback. The C3 raw material of PP fluctuates greatly, and the export scale continues. Geopolitical factors affect raw material prices and supply - demand relationships [18][19] - **Caustic soda**: The valuation is at a low level and fluctuates strongly. The improvement of domestic supply - demand contradictions and the increase in export demand are expected to drive the market to strengthen [22][24] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. Downstream demand is weak, and the market lacks obvious driving forces [27][28] - **Methanol**: Runs strongly. Geopolitical conflicts lead to a decrease in expected imports from Iran, and port inventories are expected to decline [30][34] - **Urea**: The price center moves up. The domestic fundamentals are neutral to strong, but policy restrictions limit the upward space of prices [36][38][39] - **Styrene**: Fluctuates strongly. The reduction in Asian pure benzene supply, the increase in domestic styrene exports, and the replenishment of downstream inventories are favorable factors [40][41] - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change. The supply of the enterprise is stable, and the downstream demand is tepid [46][48] - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disruptions occur frequently. The price of CP paper goods and the start - up rate of PDH devices affect the market [51][57] - **Propylene**: The fundamentals are supported, and the trend is still strong [52] - **PVC**: The driving force is upward. Short - term high inventory needs time to digest, and long - term supply disruptions and cost increases will support the market [60][61] - **Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session of fuel oil rebounds, and the short - term may still be strong. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is still at a high level, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the spot market of the outer disk continues to adjust [63] - **Container shipping index (European line)**: The spot loading is under pressure, the 04 contract fluctuates narrowly, and the far - month contract fluctuates with geopolitical factors [65][77] - **Short - fiber and bottle - chip**: Fluctuate at a high level, and the cost - driving force is still upward [78] - **Double - offset paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The market price is stable, the supply - demand contradiction exists, and the market trading is light [80][82][83][84] - **Pure benzene**: Fluctuates strongly. The reduction in imports and the replenishment of downstream inventories lead to a decline in port inventories and support prices [86][87] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Price and Market Performance**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, and MEG futures rose on March 27. The spot prices of PX and PTA also increased, while the processing fees decreased. The supply of MEG is affected by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the shutdown of some devices [5] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of PX and PTA may decrease in April due to the impact of the Middle East situation. The downstream demand for polyester is currently weak, but there is a possibility of improvement in the future. The supply of MEG is tight, and the import volume in April will significantly shrink [8][11][12][13] Synthetic rubber - **Fundamental Data**: The trading volume and open interest of the butadiene rubber futures decreased, while the trading value increased. The basis and spot prices increased, and the butadiene price decreased slightly. The start - up rate of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the profit remained unchanged [15] - **Industry News**: The domestic butadiene inventory decreased this week, and the inventory of butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased. The short - term butadiene rubber is expected to run strongly [16][17] LLDPE and PP - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of LLDPE and PP futures rose, and the trading volume increased. The basis of the 05 contract decreased, and the 05 - 09 contract spread of PP increased [18] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The start - up rate of PE decreased, and the start - up rate of PP was temporarily stable. The supply of PE is affected by new production and maintenance plans, and the supply of PP is affected by the supply of C3 raw materials and PDH device maintenance [18][19] Caustic soda - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of the 05 contract and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong increased, and the basis decreased [22] - **Market Analysis**: After the correction of caustic soda, the basis has significantly converged. Considering the expected price increase of Weiqiao and the trend of 32% caustic soda converging to 50% caustic soda, the current valuation is at a low level. The improvement of domestic supply - demand contradictions and the increase in export demand are expected to drive the market to strengthen [24] Glass - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the glass futures increased slightly, the trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the 05 - 09 contract spread decreased [28] - **Market Analysis**: The price of the domestic float glass market is generally stable, with only slight fluctuations in individual regions. Downstream demand is weak, and the market lacks obvious driving forces [28] Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price and settlement price of the methanol futures increased, the trading volume decreased, and the open interest increased. The basis increased slightly, and the 05 - 09 contract spread increased [31] - **Market Analysis**: The spot price index of methanol increased. The port inventory decreased this week. Geopolitical conflicts lead to a decrease in expected imports from Iran, and port inventories are expected to decline. The methanol market is expected to run strongly [33][34] Urea - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price and settlement price of the urea futures increased slightly, the trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis increased, and the 05 - 09 contract spread increased [37] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic urea enterprise inventory decreased this week. The domestic fundamentals are neutral to strong, but policy restrictions limit the upward space of prices. The urea price is expected to move up within a range [38][39] Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of styrene futures contracts increased. The non - integrated profit increased, and the integrated profit decreased. The 04 - 05 and 05 - 06 contract spreads increased [40] - **Market Analysis**: The reduction in Asian pure benzene supply, the increase in domestic styrene exports, and the replenishment of downstream inventories are favorable factors. The styrene market is expected to fluctuate strongly [41] Soda ash - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the soda ash futures decreased slightly, the trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased. The basis and the 05 - 01 contract spread decreased slightly [48] - **Market Analysis**: The domestic soda ash market is stable with slight fluctuations, and the trading atmosphere is light. The supply of enterprises is stable, and the downstream demand is tepid [48] LPG and propylene - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of LPG and propylene futures contracts showed different trends. The spot prices of LPG and propylene decreased in some regions. The start - up rate of PDH decreased, and the alkylation start - up rate remained unchanged. The MTBE start - up rate increased slightly [52] - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks still exist in the LPG market, and supply disruptions occur frequently. The propylene market is supported by fundamentals, and the trend is still strong [51][52] PVC - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of the 05 contract decreased, and the spot price in East China increased. The basis decreased, and the 5 - 9 month spread decreased [60] - **Market Analysis**: Short - term high inventory needs time to digest, and downstream enterprises are resistant to high - priced PVC. Long - term supply disruptions and cost increases will support the market [61] Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures increased. The trading volume and open interest of fuel oil decreased, and the trading volume and open interest of low - sulfur fuel oil showed different trends. The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil increased in various regions [63] - **Market Analysis**: The night - session of fuel oil rebounds, and the short - term may still be strong. The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is still at a high level, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the spot market of the outer disk continues to adjust [63] Container shipping index (European line) - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts showed different trends. The trading volume and open interest also changed [65] - **Market Analysis**: The spot loading is under pressure, the 04 contract fluctuates narrowly, and the far - month contract fluctuates with geopolitical factors. The supply of shipping capacity in April and May has changed, and the demand is affected by factors such as the PA ship group route upgrade and oil price fluctuations [65][75][76][77] Short - fiber and bottle - chip - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures contracts increased. The trading volume and open interest of short - fiber decreased, and the trading volume of bottle - chip increased while the open interest decreased. The spot prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip increased [78] - **Market Analysis**: Short - fiber and bottle - chip fluctuate at a high level, and the cost - driving force is still upward. The sales of short - fiber decreased slightly, and the price of bottle - chip increased [78][79] Double - offset paper - **Fundamental Data**: The spot prices of double - offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets were generally stable. The futures price decreased, and the basis increased [81] - **Market Analysis**: The market price is stable, the supply - demand contradiction exists, and the market trading is light. It is advisable to wait and see [82][83][84] Pure benzene - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of pure benzene futures contracts increased. The spot price in Shandong increased, and the port inventories of pure benzene and styrene decreased [86] - **Market Analysis**: The reduction in imports and the replenishment of downstream inventories lead to a decline in port inventories and support prices. The pure benzene market is expected to fluctuate strongly [86][87]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The near - month 2604 contract shows a narrow - range oscillation, and on Friday's close, the 04 contract is basically at par with the week 15 spot freight. Attention should be paid to Maersk's week 16 cabin opening guidance to further determine the basic positioning of the second - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract. The far - month contracts fluctuate widely following geopolitical factors, and in the short term, geopolitical tensions are difficult to truly ease, so upward risks should be monitored [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Data of Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Futures Contracts**: For EC2604, the closing price is 1,735.0 with a daily decline of 3.80%, trading volume of 9,616, open interest of 9,262, and a decrease of 1,468 in open interest; for EC2606, the closing price is 2,385.0 with a daily decline of 1.73%, trading volume of 11,021, open interest of 14,153, and an increase of 322 in open interest; for EC2608, the closing price is 2,403.0 with a daily decline of 0.12%, trading volume of 809, open interest of 2,642, and a decrease of 155 in open interest; for EC2610, the closing price is 1,595.2 with a daily increase of 0.02%, trading volume of 1,148, open interest of 7,164, and a decrease of 29 in open interest [1]. - **Spot Freight Index**: The SCFIS for the European route is 1,693.26 points, with a weekly decline of 7.7%; the SCFIS for the US - West route is 1,024.11 points, with a weekly increase of 8.8% [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: The spot freight rates of different carriers for the European route vary. For example, Maersk's rates are $38 for $/TEU, $2450 for $/40'HC, and $1465 for $/20'GP [3]. 2. Macro News - There are continuous conflicts between Iran and the US and Israel in the Middle East, including Iran's military actions, threats, and counter - threats, as well as power outages in some areas of Tehran after infrastructure attacks. The US has increased its military presence in the Middle East, and there are discussions about ground operations against Iran. Meanwhile, there are also discussions among some countries about the cease - fire proposal in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [8][9][10]. 3. Supply - side Situation - In the past week, the absolute value of April's shipping capacity changed little, with the latest weekly average at 31.6 million TEU/week. The first and second halves of April are relatively close, at 31.7 and 31.4 million TEU/week respectively. There was 1 pending voyage in the first half of April and 2 blank sailings from COSCO (&OOCL) in the second half. May's shipping capacity has been revised down from 33.1 to 31.6 million TEU/week, mainly due to 3 sailings suspended by the PA Alliance after the May Day holiday. May's shipping capacity is up 5.3% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [11]. 4. Demand - side Situation - In the second week of April, there was no large - scale full - capacity situation. With the upgrade of the PA ship group routes, the loading differences among shipping companies continue. The FE4 route in Shanghai Port faces great cargo - collection pressure, especially for ONE, which has the largest cabin share. In the long - term, if oil prices rise and remain high, potential downward risks may come from the negative feedback of the macro - economy, which will be transmitted to international trade. The WTO predicts that the global trade growth rate will slow down from 4.6% in 2025 to 1.9% in 2026, with Middle East conflicts and energy price fluctuations being the main downward risks [12]. 5. Valuation - It is estimated that the market freight rate center in the second week of April may be around $2450/FEU, equivalent to about 1700 - 1800 points in SCFIS, which is included in the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2604 contract. Shipping companies may announce price increases on April 15 as a matter of habit. The basis for price increases is weak in terms of supply - demand, while the rising oil prices weaken the shipping companies' motivation to cut prices, increasing the game - playing nature [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not available in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, etc. It evaluates the short - and medium - term trends of each commodity, taking into account factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and cost changes [2][5][10] - For most commodities, the report gives a short - term or medium - term trend judgment, and provides corresponding trading strategies and risk warnings 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term in a volatile market, medium - term still bullish. PXN remains at a low level, China's PX operating rate drops to 84%, PTA demand increases, and it is expected to accelerate inventory depletion in April. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips [5][8][10] - **PTA**: Short - term correction, medium - term still bullish. PTA operating rate rises to 84.5%, polyester operating rate drops to 86.8%. PTA spot sales are difficult, and the basis is low. It is recommended to hold a long PX and short PTA position [5][8][10] - **MEG**: Short - term pressure, medium - term bullish. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate drops from 80% to 66%, and there are many overseas plant shutdowns. Polyester operating rate drops, and short - term sales are difficult. The strategy is to operate in the 4500 - 6000 range and conduct a 5 - 9 spread long [5][8][10] Rubber - Wide - range volatile. Market sentiment turns to more divergent views between bulls and bears. The domestic Yunnan production area has entered trial tapping, and Hainan and Vietnam are about to start tapping. The social inventory of natural rubber is still at a high level, which restricts the upward space of prices [11][12][14] Synthetic Rubber - Intra - day wide - range volatile with the price center rising. The domestic butadiene inventory is decreasing, and the inventory of synthetic rubber sample enterprises is also decreasing. The basic situation is relatively strong, but the downstream is resistant to high prices [15][16][17] LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Operating rate continues to decline, and raw material prices correct under negative feedback. The supply of PE is affected by new production and maintenance, and the cost is rising. The demand for mulch film is in line with the season, and the packaging film operating rate is rising [18][19] - **PP**: C3 raw materials fluctuate greatly, and the basis is weakly stable. C3 is affected by supply disturbances from Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the cost support is strong. The supply - demand game of existing stocks intensifies, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of cracking and PDH devices [18][19] Caustic Soda - Wide - range volatile. The 32 - alkali price in Shandong has increased. The short - term basis will converge due to the approaching delivery of the 04 contract. In the long - term, the supply and demand situation will be affected by the Middle East situation [22][23][24] Pulp - Oscillating. The average spot price of imported pulp has decreased slightly this week. The market is relatively calm, and the demand is mainly based on rigid needs. The port inventory is increasing, which drags down the pulp price [27][30][32] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass market price shows a trend of falling in the north and rising in the south, but the overall fluctuation range is limited, and the market transaction is generally average [33][34] Methanol - Wide - range volatile. The port methanol market price is high and volatile, and the inventory continues to decline. The price of inland methanol has increased, and the market sentiment is optimistic. The price is expected to be affected by international energy prices and the domestic basic situation [36][39][40] Urea - Ranging. The domestic urea enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the industrial demand is increasing. The basic situation is neutral to strong, but the price is restricted by policies [42][43][44] Styrene - High - level volatile. The supply of pure benzene in Asia is expected to decrease, and the export of styrene is increasing. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory. The current valuation has room to move up [45][46][47] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market is stable and oscillating, the enterprise devices are operating stably, and the downstream demand is not strong [51] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Geopolitical risks still exist, and supply disturbances occur frequently. The price of CP paper goods has decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [53][58][59] - **Propylene**: Affected by geopolitics at the cost end, the supply is expected to decrease. The operating rate of PDH has decreased [53] PVC - Wide - range volatile. The PVC social inventory is increasing. In the short - term, the high inventory needs time to digest, and the downstream is resistant to high prices. In the long - term, the market will be supported by the spill - over of the Middle East situation and cost increases [61] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Narrow - range volatile during the day and a slight rebound at night [64] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Relatively weak in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to decline [64] Container Freight Index (European Line) - The spot is under pressure, and the market pays attention to geopolitical disturbances. The near - and far - month contracts show different trends. The supply in April and May is increasing, the demand is recovering seasonally, and the freight rate is expected to decline slightly [66][76][77] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: Short - term volatile. The short - fiber futures are rising, the spot price is stable, and the sales rate has decreased [82] - **Bottle Chip**: Short - term volatile. The upstream raw material futures are rising, the factory price is mostly stable, and the market transaction is acceptable [83] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, the demand is weak, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists [85][86][88] Pure Benzene - High - level volatile. The port inventory of pure benzene is decreasing, and the price is rising. The cracking device reduces the load, which is beneficial to the port inventory depletion [89][90]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) is 0, indicating a neutral rating [17] Core View of the Report - The intraday fluctuations of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) are greatly affected by geopolitical sentiment. The 2604 contract is suppressed by fundamentals, and its upward risk is basically eliminated, with narrow - range fluctuations close to spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to whether shipping companies will announce price increases in the second half of April. For far - month contracts, they are given certain premiums or discounts according to seasonality, and geopolitical disturbances amplify intraday fluctuations. Overall, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - **Contract Data**: EC2604 closed at 1,803.0 with a daily decline of 6.04%, trading volume of 18,169, and an open interest of 12,060 with a decrease of 3,207. EC2606 closed at 2,364.1 with a daily decline of 6.97%, trading volume of 12,555, and an open interest of 12,845 with a decrease of 560. EC2608 closed at 2,354.2 with a daily decline of 5.18%, trading volume of 1,120, and an open interest of 2,720 with a decrease of 108. EC2610 closed at 1,567.9 with a daily decline of 2.86%, trading volume of 2,222, and an open interest of 7,330 with a decrease of 172 [1] - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS for the European route was 1,693.26 on March 23, 2026, with a weekly decline of 7.7% and a bi - weekly increase of 8.8%. The SCFIS for the US West route was 1,024.11 [1] - **Spot Freight**: Maersk's freight for 40GP/40HQ was 2430/2300 in the 15th week; OA Alliance's CMA had a freight of 2800 dollars/FEU from April 1 to 14, and Evergreen 2960 dollars/FEU; COSCO and OOCL were about 2700 - 2800 dollars/FEU from April 1 to 7. PA Alliance's ONE offered 2000 dollars/FEU for a single ship on the FE4 route in the 15th week, and YML's SPOT was 2300 dollars/FEU from April 1 to 13. MSC basically used 2840 dollars/FEU in the 14th week [4][16] 2. Supply - side Situation - **April Capacity**: The weekly average capacity in April is 31.5 million TEU/week. The recent capacity increase comes from COSCO and OOCL reallocating CSCL GLOBE (18962TEU) from the Middle - East route to fill the AEU7 empty voyage in the second week of April. The capacity in April increased by 0.6% year - on - year and 7.4% month - on - month [12] - **May Capacity**: The capacity in May is 33.1 million TEU/week, with 4 pending voyages not included in the statistics. The capacity in May increased by 10.4% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month, and the static effective capacity in May is at a historical high [12] 3. Demand - side Situation - The European route is recovering according to its normal seasonal characteristics, without large - scale full - load situations. The PA Alliance is actively seeking cargo in the spot market for the new route upgrade in April, while the OA Alliance's performance is stable. In the long - term, if oil prices rise and remain high, potential downward risks may come from macro - economic negative feedback, which will be transmitted to international trade [13] 4. Freight Situation - The freight rate center in the 14th week was about 2600 dollars/FEU. In the 15th week, the freight rate center may converge to 2450 dollars/FEU. Considering factors such as ship - schedule delays, the SCFIS index may be in the range of 1750 - 1850 points [13] 5. Macro News - There are multiple geopolitical events, including statements from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, responses from Iran to the "15 - point plan", considerations by the US Department of Defense to transfer military aid to the Middle - East, and various actions and statements from the US, Israel, and other parties. These events may have an impact on the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) [11][15]