2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随油价偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 17 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡为主，不追空 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：成本端偏弱，关注低位反弹风险 | 23 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，现货价格存支撑 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：弱势仍在，短线进入调整 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：暂时弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：2-4正套轻仓入场 | 28 | | 短纤：短期低 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-10 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 2025-10-10 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 商务部连发四则公告对稀土、锂电池、超硬材料等出口管制 观点分享： 10 月 9 日，商务部发布了两项关于加强稀土相关物项出口管制的公告，分别对境外相关 稀土物项、稀土相关技术实施出口管制；并联合海关总署明确对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅 料、钬等 5 种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制。上述出口管制 将于 11 月 8 日正式实施。稀土相关物项是本轮出口管制的重点。商务部新闻发言人指出， 稀土相关物项具有军民两用属性，对其实施出口管制是国际通行做法。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 白银 | ★★★★ | 白银：昨日白银价格大涨，伦敦银最高冲破 50 美元，达到 51.221 美元，创出历史新高，且 相较 COMEX 出现大幅升水。主要原因在于海外现货紧俏，自 8 月以来，白银被纳入关键矿 产清单后，将面临潜在的 232 条款关税调查，最高可达 50%的进口关税。cmx-lbma 价差骤 然 ...

2025年10月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 7 | | 沥青：华南独累库，美委再生波 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：节中外盘弱势运行 | 23 | | 丙烯：节中现货止跌反弹 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：短线转弱，波动将放大 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：开盘或下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：地缘快速降温，关注下行风险 | 28 | | 短纤：趋势偏弱 | 31 | | ...

2025 年 10 月 9 日 集运指数（欧线）：地缘快速降温，关注下行风险 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2510 | 1,110.6 | -1.02% | | 14,129 | 24,782 | -4,532 | 0.57 | | 0.57 | | 期货 | EC2512 | 1,731.9 | -0.18% | | 15,454 | 20,771 | 88 | 0.74 | | 0.57 | | | EC2602 | 1,642.8 | -0.12% | | 4,079 | 8,534 | -318 | 0.48 | | 0.45 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a volatile adjustment [2][5]. - The decline of the US dollar has pushed up the price of copper [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound [2][13]. - The decline in lead inventory limits the price decline [2][16]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][19]. - Aluminum will trade within a range, alumina will continue to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the game between short - term supply - demand and cost [2][25]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to changes in mining licenses and suggest light - position operations before the holiday [2][32]. - The supply - demand of industrial silicon has weakened, and for polysilicon, pay attention to policy expectations [2][35][36]. - Iron ore prices will fluctuate at a high level with repeated expectations [2][39]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will fluctuate weakly as raw material trends weaken [2][41]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices will fluctuate weakly due to sector sentiment resonance [2][44]. - Coke and coking coal prices will fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][47][48]. - Log prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][50]. - Para - xylene and PTA will remain weak in the medium term, and for MEG, conduct a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage, and pay attention to position management before the holiday [2][54]. - Rubber will trade in a volatile manner, and synthetic rubber will operate weakly [2][31][33]. - Asphalt's factory and warehouse inventories have both declined [2][35]. - LLDPE will have a medium - term volatile market, and PP may be in a volatile market in the medium term [2][37][38]. - Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but has strong cost support [2][39]. - Pulp will trade in a volatile manner [2][41]. - The price of glass original sheets is stable [2][43]. - Methanol will trade in a volatile manner in the short term, and urea will fluctuate in the short term with a weakening trend [2][44][46]. - Close short positions in styrene and pure benzene before the National Day [2][48][63]. - The short - term support for LPG is not weak, and pay attention to cost changes; propylene will operate weakly in the short term [2][50]. - PVC will trade at a low level [2][53]. - The price of fuel oil rose at night and then fell back, with the price center remaining high; low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened in the short term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [2][54]. - For the container shipping index (European line), pay attention to the implementation of price increases and the fermentation of geopolitical events [2][55]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices will fluctuate in the short term with pressure, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][60]. - The short - term rebound height of palm oil is limited, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday; soybean oil's upside space is difficult to open as US soybeans fluctuate weakly [2][64]. - Soybean meal will fluctuate, and avoid risks during the long holiday; soybean No.1 will fluctuate [2][66]. - For corn, pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][68]. - Sugar will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][70]. - Both domestic and overseas cotton futures are weak [2][71]. - Suggest light - position operations in eggs during the holiday [2][73]. - The bottom of the live - hog spot market has not been reached [2][74]. - For peanuts, pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][75]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2510 was 863.60 with a daily increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 870.42 with a night - session increase of 1.02%. The trend intensity is 0 [6][8]. - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2510 was 10912 with a daily increase of 3.07%, and the night - session closing price was 10907.00 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend intensity is 1 [6][8]. Base Metals - Copper: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 82370 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 83680 with a night - session increase of 1.59%. The trend intensity is 2 [10][12]. - Zinc: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 21800 with a daily decrease of 0.82%. The trend intensity is 0 [13][14]. - Lead: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 16855 with a daily decrease of 1.49%. The trend intensity is 0 [16][17]. - Tin: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 272410 with a daily decrease of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 279670 with a night - session increase of 2.62%. The trend intensity is 0 [20][22]. - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20730, down 15 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina will continue to be weak (trend intensity: - 1), and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum (trend intensity: 0) [23][24]. - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 121100, down 280 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless - steel's main contract closing price was 12760, down 80 from the previous day, and its trend intensity is also 0 [25][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73920, up 1040 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0 [32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8610. The supply - demand has weakened, and the trend intensity is - 1 [35][38]. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract's closing price was 51280. Pay attention to policy expectations, and the trend intensity is 0 [36][38]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the 12601 contract was 784.0, down 6.0 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 1 [39]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The closing price of RB2601 was 3097, down 42 from the previous day; the closing price of HC2601 was 3289, down 41 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [41][42][43]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5610, down 50 from the previous day; silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5802, down 26 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [44][45][46]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1154, down 42.5 from the previous day; the closing price of J2601 was 1647, down 45.5 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are 0 [48][49]. - Log: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 810.5, up 0.2% from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0 [50][51][53]. - Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene and PTA will remain weak in the medium term. For MEG, conduct a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to position management before the holiday [2][54]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The short - term rebound height is limited, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][64]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans fluctuate weakly, and the upside space of soybean oil is difficult to open [2][64]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: Soybean meal will fluctuate, and avoid risks during the long holiday; soybean No.1 will fluctuate [2][66]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][68]. - Sugar: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][70]. - Cotton: Both domestic and overseas cotton futures are weak [2][71]. - Eggs: Suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][73]. - Live Hogs: The bottom of the spot market has not been reached [2][74]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][75].

2025年09月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱，节前注意仓位管理 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱，节前注意仓位管理 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套，节前注意仓位管理 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：开工厂库双回落 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素：短期震荡，趋势偏弱 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：国庆节前空单止盈 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：短期支撑不弱，关注成本变化 | 24 | | 丙烯：短期偏弱运行 | 24 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 27 | | 燃料油：夜盘冲高回跌，价格重心维持高位 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：短线转弱，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧线）： ...

2025 年 9 月 30 日 集运指数（欧线）：关注宣涨与地缘事件发酵 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2510 | 1,115.0 | -3.11% | 16,679 | 29,314 | -3,117 | 0.57 | | 0.68 | | 期货 | EC2512 | 1,756.3 | -1.36% | 11,879 | 20,683 | -1,012 | 0.57 | | 0.89 | | | EC2602 | 1,667.0 | -1.47% | 4,011 | 8,852 | 84 | 0.45 | | 0.74 | | | EC2510 - EC ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings but provides trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - **Weak or Bearish**: Synthetic rubber, rubber,纯碱, with trend intensities of -1 [17][11][64] - **Neutral**: PX, PTA, MEG, LLDPE, PP,烧碱,甲醇,尿素,苯乙烯, LPG,丙烯, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil,集运指数（欧线）, with trend intensities of 0 [7][8][9][33][37][43][56][59][60][71][75][77][79] - **Bullish**: Glass, with a trend intensity of 1 [51] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy - chemical commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand situations, and future trends. Most commodities are expected to show different degrees of price fluctuations in the short - to - medium term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and policy changes. Traders are advised to pay attention to position management before the National Day holiday [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. PXN should take profit. Weak demand and high inventory pressure during the National Day holiday limit upward drive. Domestic PX开工率 is 86.7% (+0.4%), and Asian PX开工率 is 78% (-0.2%) [7]. - **PTA**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. Rebound in PTA processing fees on 01/05 contracts should be shorted. Demand pressure is high, and supply - demand imbalance persists. PTA负荷 is 76.8% (-) [8]. - **MEG**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. Supply pressure eases marginally with upcoming maintenance plans. Polyester开工率 is 90.3% (-1.3%), and post - holiday inventory pressure may increase [9]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: The market is in a weak - oscillating state. Futures prices have declined, and trading volume has increased. Multiple tire raw material prices have dropped, reducing tire production costs [10][11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Situation**: It is in a weak operation. High supply pressure and inventory accumulation lead to downward pressure on prices. However, the decline rate may slow down due to valuation factors [17]. Asphalt - **Market Situation**: Cost support exists, but factory inventories continue to accumulate. Production has increased, and different regions show different inventory trends. The market may follow the oil price in a range - bound oscillation [18][30]. LLDPE - **Market Situation**: In the short term, it is relatively strong, and in the medium term, it may oscillate. Cost support is strong, demand from the agricultural film industry is improving, and inventory pressure is low [32]. PP - **Market Situation**: It is expected to be in an oscillating market. Short - term demand has improved, cost support is strong, and supply - side low - profit factors limit price fluctuations [36]. Caustic Soda - **Market Situation**: It is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. The market is in a wide - range oscillation, with multiple factors such as supply - demand, export, and cost in play [41]. Pulp - **Market Situation**: It is in a weak - oscillating state. The import market shows a differentiation pattern of weak coniferous pulp and strong broad - leaf pulp, affected by supply - demand and cost factors [44][48]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price fluctuates, and the trading atmosphere varies by region. Some downstream factories have orders before the holiday, but overall, the market is affected by factors such as price and demand [51]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. High inventory pressure restricts the upward space, while policy expectations provide support [55]. Urea - **Market Situation**: It will oscillate before the National Day and trend weakly in the medium term. Short - term price stability is due to pre - holiday order collection, while long - term pressure comes from weak domestic demand [58][59]. Styrene - **Market Situation**: Short - term empty orders should be closed before the National Day. High inventory problems persist, but low - valuation speculation may occur [61]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The spot market changes little. Supply remains high, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to adjust weakly and stably [64]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: It has strong short - term support, and attention should be paid to cost changes [67]. - **Propylene**: It runs weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand and price differentials [68]. PVC - **Market Situation**: It oscillates at a low level. Although there is support from anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals persist [74]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Its strong trend continues, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [77]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates strongly, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market narrows slightly [77]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Situation**: It is in an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to the emotional impact of price increase announcements. Freight rates have declined, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and exchange rates [79].

集运指数（欧线）观点： 震荡市 观点 对于2512合约，欧线的季节性特征不容忽视，但相比去年，今年旺季12月也存在2个利空因素：①2026年春节偏晚或导致货量峰值较去年有所延后，船司出于 保长协的目的，或将年底的签约期后移到 12 月下旬；②运力过剩压力逐年加大，运价中枢相较上半年下移或是大概率事件；故2512合约不宜过分高估。预计2512合 约在1550-1800点之间宽幅震荡，我们倾向于单边观望，等待11月停航力度给出进一步指引。 对于2602合约，2026年春节较 2025 年春节晚半个月（2025年是1月28日，2026年是2月17日），历史上春节较晚的年份（如2010、2015、2018 年），02合约 不一定贴水12合约，12和02的相对估值高低暂时难以看清。 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年9月28日 综述 01 | 策略 | 单边：暂无； | | --- | --- | | | 套利：中长期关注02-04 正套和 12-04 正套逢低做阔的机会。 | | | 国庆假期 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the energy - chemical industry have various trends. For example, some commodities like PX, PTA are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium - term; some are in a short - term or medium - term oscillatory pattern; and some show a downward or upward trend [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - Market Data: PX, PTA, and MEG had price increases on September 25. PX's price was up 5 dollars/ton, PTA increased by 65 yuan/ton, and MEG rose by 6 yuan/ton. PX's processing fee decreased by 8.38 dollars/ton, and PTA's processing fee dropped by 14.61 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Dynamics: PX's price was affected by oil prices and downstream demand. Some producers were worried about future weak demand. PTA's load was at 76.8%, and its开工 rate was around 82.7%. MEG's overall mainland China开工负荷 was 73.08%, with a decline of 1.85% [6][8][9]. - Views and Suggestions: PX is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain weak in the medium - term. PTA follows a similar pattern. For MEG, it's recommended to hold a reverse spread on the 1 - 5 month difference and go short on a single - side [11][12]. Rubber - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the rubber's day - session closing price was 15,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day, and the night - session closing price was 15,355 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan. The trading volume increased by 20,816 hands [14]. - Industry News: Typhoon disturbances in production areas were less than expected, and buying sentiment was average. Raw material prices were stable to weak, and the de - stocking of natural rubber inventory was less than expected [15][16]. - Trend: The rubber market is expected to be oscillatory and weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the closing price of butadiene rubber's main contract was 11,545 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The trading volume was 83,685 hands, a decrease of 29,720 hands [18]. - Industry News: As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased by 0.14 million tons. The short - term commodity index was strong, and the synthetic rubber market was expected to enter an oscillatory pattern before the National Day [19][20]. - Trend: The synthetic rubber market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, with a trend strength of 0 [20]. Asphalt - Fundamental Data: On September 26, BU2511's closing price was 3,440 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The refinery's开工 rate was 49.88%, an increase of 2.66%, and the refinery's inventory rate was 27.11%, up 0.37% [21]. - Market News: In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the domestic asphalt's weekly output was 69.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. As of September 25, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories increased by 0.9%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 1.8% [33]. - Trend: The asphalt market has a slow - moving shipment, and the spot is under pressure. Its trend strength is 0 [21][30]. LLDPE - Fundamental Data: On September 26, L2601's closing price was 7169 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The 01 - contract basis was - 79 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 40 yuan [34]. - Spot News: This week, the domestic PE market price slightly decreased. Supply increased due to some plants restarting and imported goods arriving. Demand from industries like agricultural film and hollow products slightly improved [34]. - Market Analysis: In the short - term, the commodity sentiment improved, leading to a rebound in PE. In the medium - term, it may be in an oscillatory range due to factors like demand improvement in the agricultural film industry and inventory pressure relief [35]. PP - Fundamental Data: On September 26, PP2601's closing price was 6898 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The 01 - contract basis was - 198 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 43 yuan [39]. - Spot News: This week, the domestic PP market declined and then consolidated, with a price drop. Low - melt copolymer had a larger decline [40]. - Market Analysis: Short - term demand improved, but the cost was weak. It's recommended to be cautious when short - selling at a low level, and the medium - term may be an oscillatory market [40]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the 01 - contract futures price was 2537 yuan/ton, the cheapest deliverable 32 - caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 100 yuan [43]. - Spot News: Shandong's 32 - caustic soda's weekly average price decreased by 3.73%, and 50 - caustic soda's weekly average price dropped by 2.28%. Low - degree caustic soda's inventory increased [44]. - Market Analysis: Shandong's 32 - caustic soda spot is under pressure, but there are optimistic expectations from future alumina production. The market may be in a wide - range oscillation [44][45]. Pulp - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the pulp's day - session closing price was 5060 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 52,784 hands, and the position decreased by 7473 hands [49]. - Industry News: From January to August 2025, pulp imports increased by 5.0%. Supply was abundant, and port inventory was high. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [50][51]. - Trend: The pulp market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [48]. Glass - Fundamental Data: On September 26, FG601's closing price was 1270 yuan/ton, up 3.08%. The 01 - contract basis was - 100 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 113 yuan [53]. - Spot News: On September 26, the domestic float glass market price mainly increased, and the market shipment accelerated [53]. - Trend: The glass's original - sheet price is stable, and its trend strength is 1 [52][54]. Methanol - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the methanol's closing price was 2356 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 109,826 hands, and the position decreased by 15,683 hands [56]. - Spot News: The port's methanol market was slightly weak, and the inland market declined. The port's inventory decreased but remained high [58]. - Trend: The methanol market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, with a trend strength of 0 [56][59]. Urea - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the urea's closing price was 1674 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 97,407 hands, and the position increased by 1736 hands [61]. - Industry News: On September 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased by 5.29 million tons. Before the National Day, the urea futures may enter an oscillatory pattern [62]. - Trend: The urea market is expected to be oscillatory before the National Day, with a trend strength of 0 [63]. Styrene - Fundamental Data: On September 26, styrene's 2511 contract price was 7152 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The non - integrated profit was - 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton [64]. - Spot News: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the downstream's restocking willingness was low. The port's inventory was expected to accumulate [65]. - Trend: The styrene market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of 0 [64]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Data: On September 26, SA2601's closing price was 1315 yuan/ton, up 1.15%. The 01 - contract basis was - 115 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 89 yuan [69]. - Spot News: The domestic soda ash market was weakly stable and oscillatory. Supply was high, and demand was for rigid needs. The inventory decreased [69]. - Trend: The soda ash's现货 market has little change, and its trend strength is - 1 [67][70]. LPG and Propylene - Fundamental Data: On September 26, PG2510's closing price was 4380 yuan/ton, up 1.27%. PL2601's closing price was 6372 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The PDH开工率 was 69.5%, an increase from last week [72]. - Market News: On September 25, the price of 10 - month CP paper goods for propane decreased by 3 dollars/ton, and for butane also decreased by 3 dollars/ton [76]. - Trend: The LPG market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and propylene is expected to be weak at a high level in the short - term. Both have a trend strength of 0 [72][75]. PVC - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the 01 - contract futures price was 4935 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 175 yuan [78]. - Spot News: The domestic PVC spot market was oscillatory. The supply increased, and the inventory accumulated. The market sentiment was dull [78]. - Market Analysis: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [78]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Data: On September 26, FU2510's closing price was 2969 yuan/ton, up 1.64%. LU2510's closing price was 3366 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The Singapore FOB price of high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 0.13%, and low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.70% [80]. - Trend: The fuel oil market is oscillatory at a high level and entering a short - term adjustment. The low - sulfur fuel oil has a strong upward movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market rebounded strongly. Both have a trend strength of 0 [80]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Fundamental Data: On September 26, EC2510's closing price was 1173.0, up 3.99%. The SCFIS for the European route was 1254.92 points, with a weekly decline of 12.9% [82]. - Trend: The container freight index (European line) is expected to be strong in the short - term [82].