2025年11月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：开工大涨，库存续降 | 9 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 11 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：估值低位反弹 | 17 | | 尿素：震荡回调 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 23 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 23 | | PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：窄幅震荡，短期或强于低硫 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：仍然偏弱，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短 ...

2025年11月24日 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 6 | | 沥青：跟随原油弱势运行 | 8 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 10 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 11 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 13 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 15 | | 甲醇：震荡偏弱，下方空间收窄 | 16 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 18 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 20 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 22 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 22 | | PVC：不宜追空，低位震荡 | 25 | | 燃料油：下跌趋势重现，短期或强于低硫 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：弱势延续，外盘现货高低硫价差转而收缩 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡整理 | 27 | | 短纤：短期 ...

集运指数（欧线）观点： 震荡整理，暂时观望 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数（欧线）观点总结：震荡整理，暂时观望 供应 12月空班数量4艘，已无待定航次，加班船1艘，周均运力仍维持31.6万TEU/周。过去一周的变化在于：①马士基52周增派加班船 MAERSK EINDHOVEN （+13,000TEU，挂靠宁波，不挂靠上海）；②达飞51周FAL3航线由正常派船（CMA CGM CHAMPS ELYSEES）改为空班（-23,000TEU）；③MSC 51周Britannia航线由待 定改为正常派船（MSC ANGOLA，+14,000TEU）；④51周FE3航线ONE INFINITY调配至50周FE4航线。旬度级别来看，上半月（49-50周）平均运力32.4万TEU，显著高于 下半月（51-52周）平均运力30.7万 ...

2025年11月21日，国内主力合约多数下跌。碳酸锂封跌停板，跌幅9%，沪银、红枣、集运指数（欧 线）跌超3%，低硫（LU）、工业硅跌近3%。涨幅方面，淀粉、、菜粕涨超1%。 11月19日：证券部工作人员回应，公司盐湖提锂项目的碳酸锂产品还在试生产阶段，目前没有具体报 价。 11月18日：广期所公告称，自2025年11月20日交易时起，碳酸锂期货LC2601合约的交易手续费标准调 整为成交金额的万分之一点二，日内平今仓交易手续费标准调整为成交金额的万分之一点二。 11月17日：据SMM披露，10月碳酸锂需求量126961吨，较上月增加10160吨，增幅44.3%。9月出口量环 比-218.09至150.82吨。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 来价 | 英伦 | 液幅81 | 第 | 英超 | 成交通 | 器器 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 碳酸锂2601 ™ | 91020 | 1 | - | 91020 | -9.00% ...

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2]. - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [2]. - Copper: Risk sentiment remains weak, and prices are oscillating [2][10]. - Zinc: Subject to macro - level disturbances [2][13]. - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2][16]. - Tin: Prices have fallen from a high level [2][19]. - Aluminum: Affected by macro - level disturbances; Alumina: Ranging within a certain interval; Casting aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: Nickel prices have broken through support levels and are under pressure to move in an oscillatory manner; Stainless steel: Weak market reality suppresses steel prices, but the downside is limited [2][27][28]. - Lithium carbonate: The speed of inventory reduction has slowed down, and a market sentiment cooldown may lead to a price correction [2][33]. - Industrial silicon: The market shows a weak pattern; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the lower support level [2][36][37]. - Iron ore: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is relatively high [2][40]. - Rebar: Oscillating weakly; Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating weakly [2][43]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range oscillation; Manganese silicon: Wide - range oscillation [2][48]. - Coke: Wide - range oscillation; Coking coal: Wide - range oscillation [2][52]. - Logs: Repeated oscillations [2][54]. - Para - xylene: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits; PTA: In a single - sided oscillatory market, avoid chasing high prices; MEG: New device launches lead to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure persists [2][28]. - Rubber: Oscillating; Synthetic rubber: Oscillating [2][31][33]. - Asphalt: Following the weak trend of crude oil [2][35]. - LLDPE: Agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, pay attention to supply pressure; PP: Do not chase short - term short positions, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend; Caustic soda: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37][38][39]. - Pulp: Oscillating [2][40]. - Glass: The price of original glass is stable [2][42]. - Methanol: Oscillating weakly, with the downside space narrowing; Urea: Short - term oscillation has support; Styrene: Short - term oscillation; Soda ash: Little change in the spot market [2][43][45][47][48]. - LPG: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term; Propylene: Spot prices are trending strongly, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom; PVC: Do not chase short positions, oscillating at a low level; Fuel oil: Short - term strength, continuous rebound at night; Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weak trend continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has slightly declined; Container shipping index (European line): In an oscillatory market; Short - fiber: Short - term oscillatory market; Bottle chips: Short - term oscillatory market, with processing fees being compressed; Offset printing paper: Oscillating at a low level; Pure benzene: Overseas gasoline blending has started, mainly oscillating in the short term; Palm oil: The rebound height is limited, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas; Soybean oil: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, mainly oscillating within a certain range; Soybean meal: Oscillating; Soybean: Oscillating; Corn: Oscillating; Sugar: Consolidating at a low level; Cotton: Futures prices maintain an oscillatory trend; Eggs: The volume of culled hens has increased; Pigs: The expectation of temperature drop has materialized, and pressure is gradually being released; Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2][5][49] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: For gold, the closing prices of domestic and international futures contracts showed declines, trading volumes and positions changed, and ETF positions decreased. For silver, futures prices also declined, trading volumes decreased, and positions increased. Inventory levels of both decreased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US September non - farm payrolls data was mixed, with unemployment reaching a four - year high. The number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased last week, while the number of continued claims reached a four - year high. Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts [6][9]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices showed minor fluctuations, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot - futures spreads also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: US employment data was mixed, and the Netherlands suspended intervention in Nexperia. Peru's copper production increased, a copper mine project in Chile obtained environmental approval, China's copper product output decreased, and import and export data for copper - related products changed [10][12]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices declined slightly, trading volumes decreased, positions increased, inventory levels changed, and various price spreads and premiums also changed [13]. - **News**: The US September non - farm report showed mixed signals in the employment market, which may complicate the Fed's December decision [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions declined, inventory levels changed, and price spreads and import - related data also changed [16]. - **News**: Similar to other metals, it was affected by the US employment data [17]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, inventory levels varied, and spot prices and price spreads changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In addition to the US employment data, there were reports about Trump's AI policy and the White House's pressure on Congress regarding AI chip exports [21][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: For electrolytic aluminum, futures prices, trading volumes, positions, inventory levels, and price spreads changed. For alumina, relevant data also showed certain trends. For casting aluminum alloy, prices and inventory levels changed [24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and there were differences within the Fed regarding interest rate cuts [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, and various industrial chain prices and spreads also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for nickel imports, and there were regulations and policies in the Indonesian mining industry. There were also trade - related threats from the US [28][30][31]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventory levels of lithium carbonate contracts changed, and the prices of related products in the industrial chain also showed certain trends [33]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, and production and inventory data for lithium carbonate changed [34]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, positions, and price spreads of industrial silicon and polysilicon changed, and spot prices, profits, and inventory levels also varied [37]. - **Macro and Industry News**: A 200 - megawatt photovoltaic project in Xinjiang was put into operation [38]. Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined slightly, and price spreads changed [40]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's industrial added value data was released [41]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices declined, and price spreads changed [43]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Weekly production, inventory, and apparent demand data for steel products were released, and national steel production data from January to October was also provided [44][46]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices and price spreads also changed [48]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Price information for ferrosilicon and manganese silicon was released, and manganese ore import data was provided [49][50]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, trading volumes and positions changed, spot prices remained stable, and price spreads changed [52]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission held a video conference on energy supply during the heating season [53].

Report Information - Report date: November 21, 2025 [1][4][13][14][19][22][25][35][39][43][48][53][57][63][67][69][72][80][83][85] - Report title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides short - term trend forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including trends such as supply - demand changes, price fluctuations, and trading strategies for each commodity [2][4][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply is expected to be tight, with a rising unilateral price. Suggest 5 - 9 month - spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene for hedging. The terminal polyester demand is weakening marginally [10][11] - **PTA**: The upside space may be limited, do not chase high. Cost provides support, and the month - spread view is revised to positive arbitrage [11] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is weak. Short at high prices and maintain reverse arbitrage for month - spreads. Supply is expected to increase, and there is an oversupply situation in December [12] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The supply side provides support, but the demand side from tire factories is weak, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally [13][14][17][18] - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. Short - term prices are supported by the rubber sector, but the medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are under pressure [19][20][21] Asphalt - It follows the weak trend of crude oil. The production has decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [22][34] LLDPE - Agricultural demand may be reaching its peak. Pay attention to supply pressure. The raw material cost is under pressure, and the downstream demand is supported by rigid needs, but the mid - and downstream inventory - holding willingness has weakened [35][36] PP - Do not short in the short term, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. Low profits limit the downward space [39][40] Caustic Soda - The trend is still under pressure. High production and high inventory continue, and the demand side has limited support. The cost support is weak, and the long - term negative feedback from alumina production cuts may occur [43][45] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The price fluctuation is affected by factors such as futures stability, weak demand, and high inventory [48][50][52] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the price has been adjusted downward in some regions [53][54] Methanol - It is in a weakly volatile state with a narrowing downward space. The supply is high, the demand from the MTO industry is under pressure, and the cost - side pricing logic weight increases slightly [57][60][62] Urea - It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term. The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the fourth - batch export quota and mid - stream replenishment may relieve the pressure [63][65][66] Styrene - It is in a short - term volatile state. The short - term aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil logic continues, and the pure benzene market has a weak chemical reality and a strong blending oil expectation [67][68] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is based on low - price rigid needs [69][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [72] - **Propylene**: The spot trend is strong, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom [72] PVC - Do not short at low levels. It is in a low - level volatile state. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production. However, the high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change in the short term [80][81] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It has strengthened in the short term, with a continuous rebound at night [83] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weak trend continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has slightly decreased [83] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile state [85] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a short - term volatile state [31] - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a short - term volatile state, and the processing fee is compressed [31] Offset Printing Paper - It is in a low - level volatile state [32] Pure Benzene - It is mainly volatile in the short term. The overseas blending oil market is starting, and the chemical fundamentals are weak [34][68]

早上好！ 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储12月维持利率不变的概率为60.4%，降息25个基点的概率为39.6%。 消息面上，据央视报道，一项最新民调显示，美国民众对特朗普政府的经济政策日益感到不满，整体经济情绪显著恶化。 调查中，76%的受访者认为美国经济状况"不佳"，较7月的67%进一步上升。多数受访者表示，包括医疗和住房费用等在内，各项生活成本持续上涨。 在"迟到48天"之后，美国劳工统计局终于公布9月非农就业数据。美国9月非农就业人数增加11.9万人，市场预估为增加5.2万人，前值为增加2.2万人。美 国9月失业率为4.4%，预估为4.3%，前值为4.3%。 数据公布后，美股期货拉升，道琼斯指数期货涨0.80%，标普500指数期货涨1.49%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨2.02%，然而截至收盘，道琼斯指数期货跌 0.84%，标普500指数期货跌1.56%，纳斯达克100指数期货跌2.15%。 三大股指收盘也普跌，道琼斯指数跌0.84%，纳斯达克指数跌2.15%，标普指数跌1.55%。个股方面，英伟达跌超3%，特斯拉跌超2%，甲骨文跌超6%。 利率互换市场继续显示，美联储12月降息的可能性不大。数据公布后， ...

卢钊毅则表示，当前市场对集运指数（欧线）2602合约的分歧较大：若12月运价按8折落地，合约低点 或下移至1500点；若挺价成功，叠加明年1月涨价函执行，合约或测试更高位。博弈的焦点在于船司挺 价意愿与实际货量能否匹配。 展望后市，杜冰沁认为，出于对旺季货量的乐观预期，集运指数（欧线）2512合约和2602合约仍有一定 上涨空间，在马士基开舱价公布之后，需要关注其他航司的跟进情况，以及12月的货量能否延续11月末 的表现以支撑涨价的落地。目前，达飞已经开始尝试进行苏伊士运河的复航，不过大部分航司仍持观望 态度，后市需重点关注航司12月的报价、旺季的订舱量表现和明年红海复航的预期。 卢钊毅认为，集运指数（欧线）后市走势将呈现震荡偏弱格局，核心驱动因素包括12月运价落地成色、 明年1月涨价函执行力度、货量季节性变化。短期以观望为主，关注12月运价实际执行情况及明年1月涨 价函落地效果。若12月运价按8折落地，集运指数（欧线）2602合约或测试1500~1700点；若挺价成 功，2602合约或震荡上行至1800~1900点。 集运指数（欧线）在本周一大涨后，连续3日下跌，主力2602合约周四盘中最低跌至1567点， ...

Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and the rebound space of oil prices due to geopolitical factors is generally limited, with the market showing a mainly weak - oscillating trend [2]. - Precious metals are oscillating at high levels, waiting for new drivers and technical directional guidance [3]. - The overall trend of various commodities is affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost fluctuations, and different commodities have different market outlooks and investment suggestions [2 - 48]. Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices declined, with the Brent 01 contract down 1.77%. The U.S. is promoting a Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing geopolitical risk premiums. U.S. EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 342,600 barrels last week. The supply - side contraction - induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not appeared, and the market is mainly weak - oscillating [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The logic of high - sulfur fuel oil being weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil is strong due to supply - side disruptions, but there is medium - term supply pressure. High - sulfur fuel oil supply may become looser in the medium term [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: The expected import cost of international LPG in December is rising. The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units boosts the downstream chemical enterprises' enthusiasm for starting operations, and the demand for the combustion end has improved. LPG is expected to be strong - oscillating [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant information in this report. - **Coal**: - **Coking Coal**: The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and the price has declined. The total inventory of coking coal has increased slightly, and the price may be weak - oscillating [17]. - **Steam Coal**: No relevant information in this report. - **Uranium**: No relevant information in this report. Metals - **Precious Metals**: - **Gold & Silver**: Overnight, precious metals were strong - oscillating with sharp intraday fluctuations. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed serious differences among officials, and the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped below 40%. Precious metals are waiting for new drivers [3]. - **Platinum & Palladium**: No relevant information in this report. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose, and SHFE copper was oscillating with reduced positions. The Fed's meeting minutes showed differences, and the expectation of a December interest rate cut dropped to 30%. Chile raised its average copper price forecast for this year and next. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 87,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum was oscillating. This week, non - ferrous metals as a whole adjusted, and SHFE aluminum fell back from a high level. The market is still looking for economic prospects and interest rate cut clues, and the aluminum market is expected to be short - term oscillating [5]. - **Zinc**: The TC of both domestic and overseas mines decreased, and smelters' production cuts in November gradually materialized. Domestic zinc social inventories decreased, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating and medium - term bearish [8]. - **Lead**: The external and domestic inventories increased, and the market fundamentals weakened. The support level for SHFE lead is temporarily seen at 17,100 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel had narrow - range fluctuations, and the market trading was dull. The inventory of pure nickel and nickel - iron increased, and nickel prices are expected to be weak [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin rose first and then fell, and SHFE tin opened high and closed low. The resumption of production in low - grade mines and the efficiency of Indonesia's production capacity rectification are the keys to deepening the tight supply. Hold short positions with a stop - loss of 295,000 yuan [11]. - **Rare Earths**: No relevant information in this report. Chemicals - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The two - olefin futures continued to decline, with a divergence between short - term futures and spot prices. The supply pressure of plastic and polypropylene is difficult to alleviate, and the long - term trend is bearish [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The cost support for PVC weakened, and it continued to decline. The demand for PVC exports to India improved, but the overall demand boost was limited. Caustic soda is in a downward trend [29]. - **PX & PTA**: Oil prices fell, but PX was strong, supporting PTA prices. PTA's profitability was poor, and the number of device overhauls increased. The terminal demand for PTA weakened [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, and port inventories continued to rise significantly. The supply pressure is large, and the medium - term demand is weak [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has no new investment pressure, but the demand is expected to weaken. Bottle - chip demand is fading, and there is long - term over - capacity pressure [32]. - **Glass**: Glass continued to decline. The inventory pressure in the middle - stream is high, and the profit is narrowing. The follow - up may fluctuate with the cost side [33]. - **20 - Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: The international crude oil price fell sharply, and the price of Thai raw materials rose. The demand is slowly weakening, and the supply of natural rubber is decreasing while that of synthetic rubber is increasing [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost side of soda ash moved down, and it continued to decline. The industry inventory decreased slightly. The long - term supply is expected to be in excess [35]. Agriculture - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The night - session of the main contract of Dalian soybean meal futures followed the decline of U.S. soybeans. The South American soybean planting progress is slow, and the domestic soybean supply is sufficient while the crushing profit is poor [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Overnight, U.S. soybean oil fell. The policy change may narrow the price difference between global vegetable oils and U.S. domestic vegetable oils. Palm oil may have a phased bottom [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The focus of the rapeseed market is on the supply side. The impact of Australian rapeseed on the supply side is mainly on the March contract and far - month contracts. The short - term strategy is bearish [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of the main contract of soybean No.1 futures fell rapidly from a high level. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans decreased, and imported soybeans may be strong - oscillating in the short term [39]. - **Corn**: The night - session of Dalian corn futures was weak - oscillating. The new corn supply in Northeast China increased less, and farmers were more reluctant to sell. The downstream inventory is low, and the 01 contract may continue to correct [40]. - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pig**: The pig futures were weak - oscillating, and the spot price rebounded slightly. The pig price may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [41]. - **Chicken & Eggs**: The egg spot price continued to fall, and the market may be weak in the short term. Hold short positions in near - month contracts [42]. - **Cotton**: U.S. cotton fell back, waiting for the weekly export data. The domestic Xinjiang cotton purchase is basically over, and the new cotton listing brings pressure to the market. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be range - oscillating [43]. - **Sugar**: Overnight, U.S. sugar was oscillating. India and Thailand are gradually starting to crush sugar, and the domestic market's focus is on the new - season output forecast [43]. - **Apple**: The futures price of apples was oscillating at a high level. The spot price of cold - stored apples is strong, but there may be inventory pressure in the far - month contracts [44]. - **Timber**: The futures price of timber was oscillating. The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand supports the price. The low inventory provides strong support [45]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures continued to fall. The port inventory increased, and the downstream procurement willingness was average. The price may continue to correct [46]. Others - **Shipping**: The market has digested the expected price increase of container shipping in early December. The 12 - contract is relatively resistant to decline, and the far - month contracts are expected to be low - level oscillating [20]. - **Financial Futures**: - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares were boosted by the rise of heavy - weight sectors, and the performance of futures contracts was differentiated. The short - term stock market should adopt a relatively defensive strategy [47]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The market risk preference change may bring new opportunities [48].