Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's export value increased by 12.7% year-on-year in the first seven months of this year, leading to an upward revision of the export growth forecast from 3% to a range of 7% to 9% by the Hong Kong Trade Development Council [1] Group 1: Export Performance - The export performance in the first seven months exceeded expectations, primarily driven by advanced shipping strategies [1] - The current export confidence index rose from 49.6 to 53.3, while the expected index increased from 49.0 to 54.3, indicating a recovery in exporter confidence due to easing global trade tensions [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Despite the positive performance, caution is advised as the effects of advanced shipping strategies may diminish in the coming months [1] - The global trade system is becoming increasingly fragmented, with potential for rising tariffs and heightened supply chain risks, which could lead to a sharp slowdown in trade activities by 2026 [1] - Approximately 64% of surveyed companies expect their net profit margins to increase or at least remain stable despite the challenging trade environment projected for 2025 [1]

Core Insights - Hong Kong's exports recorded a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in the first seven months of this year, prompting the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) to raise its overall export growth forecast for 2025 from 3% to a range of 7% to 9% [1] - The HKTDC's export confidence index for the third quarter of 2025 showed an increase in the current situation index from 49.6 to 53.3, and the expected index rose from 49 to 54.3 [1] - The strong export performance is attributed to the industry's strategy of early shipments, although this effect is expected to diminish in the coming months [1] Market Analysis - The current market classification index indicates that mainland China and ASEAN are viewed as the best-performing markets, with exporters feeling optimistic about the prospects in these regions [1] - Despite a challenging trade environment, most surveyed companies expect their net profit margins to either increase or remain stable in the third quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Trade Development Council has raised its export growth forecast for the year from 3% to a range of 7% to 9% due to a strong performance in the first seven months of 2023, which saw a year-on-year growth of 12.7% [1][3]. Group 1 - The increase in export growth forecast is attributed to companies adopting early shipments and a "rush to export" strategy [1][3]. - The trade environment remains uncertain due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on several major trading partners starting in August and the increasing fragmentation of the global trade system [1][3]. - The export confidence index among Hong Kong exporters rose from 49 points in the previous quarter to 54.3 points in the third quarter of this year, indicating improved optimism about industry prospects [1][3]. Group 2 - Exporters express optimism regarding market prospects in mainland China, ASEAN, the EU, and Japan [1][3].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) reported an increase in the export confidence index for Q3 2025, with the current index rising from 49.6 to 53.3 and the expected index increasing from 49.0 to 54.3, marking new highs since the index's upgrade in Q1 2024 [1] - The growth in export confidence is attributed to exporters adopting an advance shipping strategy, benefiting sales and new orders, as well as an increase in trade value following U.S. tariffs [1] - Hong Kong's overall export growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward from 3% to a range of 7-9%, driven by a year-on-year export growth of 12.7% in the first seven months of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The current market classification index indicates that Mainland China (62.4, up 9.5 points) and ASEAN (56.9, up 3.5 points) are viewed as the best-performing markets, while the EU and Japan have also shown improvement [2] - Exporters are optimistic about several markets, with expected market indices showing positive outlooks for Mainland China (60.5, up 7.9 points), ASEAN (60.5, up 0.6 points), EU (55, up 4.3 points), and Japan (54.7, up 4.1 points) [2] - The toy industry (49.4, up 6.3 points) and production equipment/materials industry (45.8, down 4.6 points) remain in contraction, while the watch (54.9, up 2.8 points), electronics (54.5, up 5.6 points), clothing (51.2, up 2.3 points), and jewelry (51.3, down 0.3 points) industries are in expansion [2][3] Group 3 - The expected indices for various industries show stable growth, with electronics (56.0, up 7.6 points), watches (53.8, up 2.3 points), clothing (51.9, up 4.6 points), and jewelry (51.5, up 1.5 points) indicating positive trends [3] - Despite challenges in the trade environment, 64% of surveyed companies still expect their net profit margins to increase or at least remain stable [3]