两百多年间，制造业始终在全球范围内流动、重组、升级。它像一股持续移动的力量，从欧洲出发，横跨大西洋，又深度 进入亚洲，每一次转移都伴随着技术革命、制度变革与国家命运的更替。回望这条迁徙轨迹，我们看到的不只是"工厂换 了地方"，而是世界生产方式的不断重塑。如今，当智能制造与人工智能成为关键词，新一轮制造业变局正在酝酿。 蒸汽时代的起点：英国率先点燃工业引擎 18世纪末，英国率先完成从手工业向机器生产的跃迁。蒸汽机的广泛应用，使纺织、冶金、造船等行业实现规模化生产， 制造效率被前所未有地释放。 曼彻斯特的棉纺厂昼夜运转，英国布匹一度占据全球市场的绝对主导地位。制造业不仅支撑了国内经济，也成为海外扩张 的重要基础。可以说，工业革命让"制造能力"第一次成为国家实力的核心指标。 但优势并非永恒。随着成本上升、市场趋于饱和，英国逐渐失去制造领先地位，制造业开始寻找新的落脚点。 规模化时代：中国构建"世界工厂" 20世纪90年代以后，中国成为全球制造业迁移的最大承接者。改革开放释放的制度红利、庞大而稳定的劳动力供给，以及 日益完善的产业配套，使中国迅速形成完整制造体系。 沿海城市快速崛起，电子、纺织、机械、消费品制造高度集 ...

在阅读这篇文章之前，请大家点个关注，这样方便讨论和分享。作者会按时创作更多高质量的内容，不会让大家失望。本文由韩错编辑。 --- 但自特朗普卷土重来后，规则发生了变化。美国不再单纯关注组装地，而是更关注供应链的源头。如果核心零件或技术来自中国，那么即使是在东南亚组装 的产品，也会被视为中国制造，需要按中国的税率征税。 --- **洗澡蟹模式的风险** 一旦这些产品被认定为洗澡蟹，除了要缴纳基础关税，还会被额外加征40%的关税，利润瞬间被吞噬。这让整个产业链产生了恐 慌，马来西亚的针织品出口量曾出现剧增，这并非市场需求回升，而是企业赶在新关税生效前提前出货；而印尼的玩具产业，尤其是依赖美国巨头美泰的公 司，也遭遇了压力，甚至传出美泰被威胁要么迁回美国生产，要么面临更高的关税。 而在东南亚苦撑的同时，墨西哥也被卷入了这场风暴。作为北美自由 贸易区的重要组成部分，墨西哥曾是中国商品进入美国市场的一个重要跳板——中国商品通过墨西哥组装包装，再贴上本地制造的标签，就能零关税进入美 国市场。 --- **新关税法案的打击** 然而，最近美国通过了一项新关税法案，彻底打破了这一平衡。针对未签署自贸协定的亚洲国家，美国对14 ...

这篇国际评论，主要来分析下东南亚和中美的贸易联系。 爱吃大闸蟹的人都懂"洗澡蟹"的猫腻：外地螃蟹泡过阳澄湖水，就能贴标卖高价，过去十年，这一幕在全球贸易中不断上演——东南亚和墨西哥先后成 了"国际阳澄湖"，承接中国制造业组装环节，贴上个本地标签就畅行美国市场。 但如今，这门稳赚的生意，正被中美博弈彻底搅黄。 不断在变化的"游戏规则" 最先感受到寒意的是东南亚，自特朗普首次执政，"中国加一"成了跨国企业的生存法则，手机、衣服的组装线纷纷从中国转移至此。 马来西亚的纺织厂，设计图、布料甚至缝纫机零件都来自中国，只在本地完成缝合；电子厂组装的半导体，芯片设计和核心材料全靠进口，却能挂上本地产 地证销往美国。 这种"过水就涨价"的模式，曾让东南亚赚得盆满钵满。 一旦被认定为"洗澡蟹"，除基础关税外，还要加征40%税，利润瞬间被吞噬，恐慌已蔓延到产业端：马来西亚针织品出口曾突然暴增，并非订单回暖，而是 企业抢在关税生效前甩货；印尼玩具产业依赖的美国巨头美泰，据传更是被威胁不迁回美国就加征惩罚性关税。 这边东南亚还在苦撑，墨西哥又被推上风口浪尖，作为北美自贸区的"门户"，它曾是中国商品的绝佳跳板——运到当地组装包装，换张 ...

【环球时报报道 记者 白云怡】墨西哥《金融家报》8日报道称，墨西哥国会议员当天就调高对中国及其 他亚洲国家进口商品的关税进行讨论，并计划于本月15日国会年终休会前完成表决。 报道称，这一提案拟对来自中国以及印度、韩国等其他尚未与墨方签署贸易协定的亚洲国家加征最高达 50%的进口关税，商品包括汽车、纺织品、服装、塑胶、钢铁等。 墨西哥《经济学家报》援引一名业内人士的话称，关税会推高生产链的成本，"这最终会转嫁到消费者 身上"。墨国际贸易与公共政策顾问莫利纳则认为，墨西哥77%的进口是生产投入品和中间品，提高关 税将推高生产成本，并可能成为GDP增长的"刹车"。 "无论从哪个角度看，这都是个坏主意，会产生政治和经济层面的后果。关税从来都不是推动经济结构 性变革的解决方案，它会加剧市场扭曲，尤其是在海关监管能力不强的国家。"莫利纳说，而墨西哥在 与中国的贸易摩擦中更为脆弱，"墨西哥对中国的依赖远高于美国"。 报道称，墨西哥政府正争取国会在12月15日前批准该提案。此前，该提案因为商界的强烈反对在众议院 受阻。据两名消息人士称，本周讨论的新版本提案比原先版本更灵活一些，比如修订版本的提案可能下 调对汽车零部件和钢铁产 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 市场情绪回暖，股指震荡修复 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-12-01 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | PMI数据喜忧参半。国家统计局公布数据显示，中国11月官方制造业PMI为49.2%，前值49%，供需小幅修复，出口指数显著上涨，供需缺口收 | | 经济和企 业盈利 | 偏空 | 窄至0.8pct。但非制造业商务活动指数回落至收缩区间，为49.5%，前值50.1%。 | | | | 促销费政策陆续推出。六部门印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，《方案》提出，到2027年，消费品供给结构明 | | 宏观政策 | 中性偏多 | 显优化，形成3个万亿级消费领域和10个千亿级消费热点，打造一批富有文化内涵、享誉 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Data - **Interest Rates**: DROO1 closed at 1.30 with a -0.81 bp change, DR007 at 1.47 with a 2.04 bp change, GC001 at 1.55 with a 16.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.53 with a 1.00 bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.58 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year国债 at 1.40 with a -0.81 bp change, 5 - year国债 at 1.62 with a -0.95 bp change, 10 - year国债 at 1.84 with a -1.04 bp change, and 10 - year美债 at 4.02 with a 2.00 bp change [4] - **Bond Market**: Last week, the central bank conducted 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations. With 1676 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, there was a net withdrawal of 164.2 billion yuan. Also, 900 billion yuan of MLF and 300 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases matured, while the central bank carried out 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations and 200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit tenders [4] - **This Week's Central Bank Operations**: This week, 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, with 338.7 billion, 302.1 billion, 213.3 billion, 356.4 billion, and 301.3 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively. Additionally, 1 trillion yuan of 91 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature on Friday [5] 2. Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 4527 with a 0.25% change, the SSE 50 at 2970 with a -0.09% change, the CSI 500 at 7032 with a 1.15% change, and the CSI 1000 at 7334 with a 1.06% change. For futures, IF当月 closed at 4506 with a 0.3% change, IH当月 at 2963 with no change, IC当月 at 6974 with a 1.1% change, and IM当月 at 7261 with a 1.1% change [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: IF trading volume was 90267 with a -10.5% change and open interest was 258622 with a -2.1% change; IH trading volume was 38726 with a -8.9% change and open interest was 89179 with a -3.4% change; IC trading volume was 106633 with a -5.6% change and open interest was 248680 with a -2.3% change; IM trading volume was 174822 with a -4.7% change and open interest was 359979 with a -1.1% change [6] - **Last Week's Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.64% to 4526.7, the SSE 50 rose 0.47% to 2969.6, the CSI 500 rose 3.14% to 7031.6, and the CSI 1000 rose 3.77% to 7334.2. Most Shenwan primary industry indices rose, with communication (8.7%), electronics (6%), comprehensive (4.4%), media (4.2%), and light manufacturing (4.2%) leading the gains, while only banking (-0.6%) and transportation (-0.5%) declined. A - share daily trading volumes were 1584.3 billion, 1652.7 billion, 1615.8 billion, 1537.7 billion, and 1435.2 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 134.74 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] 3. PMI Data and Market Outlook - **PMI Data**: China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2% (previous value 49%), with a slight repair in supply and demand, a significant increase in the export index, and the supply - demand gap narrowing to 0.8 pct. However, the non - manufacturing business activity index fell to the contraction range at 49.5% (previous value 50.1%) [7] - **Market Outlook**: The recent market adjustment provides an opportunity to layout for the further upward movement of stock indices next year. Traders can consider gradually establishing long positions during the market adjustment and use the discount structure of stock index futures to improve the winning rate of long - term investments. The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held in mid - to late December, which will analyze the current economic situation and plan the economic work for 2026, providing key guidance for next year's policy focus and market capital layout [7] 4. Futures Contract Premium and Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 8.85%, 6.19%, 3.98%, and 4.10% respectively [8] - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 4.15%, 2.67%, 1.19%, and 1.36% respectively [8] - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.67%, 12.54%, 10.88%, and 11.35% respectively [8] - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current, next, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 19.23%, 15.74%, 13.94%, and 13.54% respectively [8]

"在2024年，26%的中国公司MSCI ESG评级上调，创下历史新高，上调比例远超下调比例。"11月25 日，MSCI可持续与气候研究部大中华区主管郭思平在接受21世纪经济报道记者采访时表示。 郭思平介绍，过去五年，中国A股上市公司的MSCI ESG评级呈现出两个显著趋势：整体评级稳步提 升，以及领先企业比例显著上升。"这与监管机构持续推出可持续发展相关政策密切相关。" 近年来，证监会指导沪深北交易所发布了一系列ESG信披指引、指南，A股上市公司更注重建立规范的 内部ESG工作体系，将ESG管理从被动合规的报告任务，主动融入企业战略规划与核心业务流程，以构 建长期竞争力。不少公司也收获了更高的ESG评级得分。 证监会上市司副司长张艳在2025年上市公司可持续发展交流会上介绍，MSCI中国A股指数成分股中， 全球领先评级（AAA、AA级）的家数占比由去年底的7.2%大幅跃升至14%，由"十三五"末期的2家增长 至54家，是近年来最大的一次提升。 不仅是成分股的ESG评级跃升，郭思平对记者介绍，从A股总体来看，截至2025年11月13日，全部A股 中AA和AAA级企业占比达到14%，也创近年来最大升幅。 银行、 ...

Core Insights - The electronic industry saw the highest net inflow of funds today, amounting to 12.22 billion, with a price increase of 3.00% and a trading volume increase of 8.61% compared to the previous trading day [1][2] - The media industry experienced the largest net outflow of funds, totaling -4.26 billion, with a price decrease of -1.35% and a trading volume decrease of -15.34% compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Industry Summary - **Electronic**: Net inflow of 12.22 billion, price increase of 3.00%, trading volume increased by 8.61%, turnover rate at 2.78% [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Net inflow of 3.65 billion, price increase of 3.05%, trading volume increased by 22.14%, turnover rate at 3.17% [1] - **Automobile**: Net inflow of 2.56 billion, price increase of 1.78%, trading volume increased by 14.25%, turnover rate at 2.74% [1] - **Communication**: Net inflow of 2.30 billion, price increase of 2.37%, trading volume increased by 10.15%, turnover rate at 1.50% [1] - **Basic Chemicals**: Net inflow of 2.07 billion, price increase of 1.96%, trading volume increased by 12.26%, turnover rate at 2.63% [1] - **Media**: Net outflow of -4.26 billion, price decrease of -1.35%, trading volume decreased by -15.34%, turnover rate at 3.64% [2] - **Pharmaceuticals**: Net outflow of -3.30 billion, price decrease of -0.03%, trading volume decreased by -10.20%, turnover rate at 1.74% [2] - **Real Estate**: Net outflow of -0.61 billion, price decrease of -0.25%, trading volume decreased by -3.04%, turnover rate at 2.34% [2]

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI and electronics PMI in Singapore for October 2025 showed slight declines but remain in the expansion zone, indicating a mixed outlook for future growth [1][2] - The manufacturing PMI has expanded for three consecutive months, while the electronics PMI has expanded for five months, suggesting a positive trend despite recent warnings of potential slowdowns [1] Manufacturing Sector - New orders, new export orders, purchasing volume, and order backlogs in the manufacturing sector have all shown a slowdown in expansion [1] - Supplier delivery times and factory output have shifted to contraction, with future business indicators remaining in the contraction zone, signaling caution for future momentum [1] Electronics Sector - Similar trends are observed in the electronics sector, where new orders, new export orders, factory output, purchasing volume, employment, finished goods inventory, and order backlogs have all experienced a slowdown in expansion [1] - This marks the first decline in the electronics PMI since April 2025, indicating potential challenges ahead [1] Supply Chain Concerns - Despite an improvement in supplier delivery times, there is an acceleration in import and input prices, reflecting ongoing concerns about potential supply chain disruptions [2] - The recent escalation in US-China trade tensions may have contributed to these concerns, although a trade agreement was reached shortly thereafter [2] Regional Manufacturing Trends - Broader trends in Asia show weakening PMIs in Malaysia, South Korea, and Taiwan, attributed to softening global and US demand, as well as weak downstream demand from China [2] - Many semiconductor companies are seeking to reshore production and attract more foreign direct investment into the US as part of bilateral trade negotiations [2] Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, recent US corporate earnings reports indicate strong ongoing capital expenditure in AI-related investments and cloud infrastructure demand, suggesting that the growth momentum in the electronics sector may be more sustainable than that of the overall manufacturing sector [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global financial and commodity markets are significantly influenced by geopolitical risks, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. Geopolitical tensions, especially between the US, EU, and Russia, have led to price fluctuations in the energy and precious metal markets. Meanwhile, in the financial market, A - shares and Hong Kong stocks showed positive trends, and multiple factors are driving the long - term investment value of the Chinese market. 3. Summary by Catalog Overnight Night - market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.91% at $4143.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.03% at $48.65 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and US fiscal policy uncertainty [4]. - Crude oil prices soared, with the US oil main contract up 5.56% at $61.75 per barrel and Brent crude up 5.38% at $65.96 per barrel, due to sanctions on Russian oil and a decrease in US EIA crude inventories [4]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME aluminum hitting a new high for the year due to supply concerns from an Icelandic aluminum plant's production cut [6]. Important Information - **Macro Information**: The EU's sanctions on Chinese enterprises have been opposed by China. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the importance of central enterprise planning. The Network Security Law draft addresses AI development, and the ecological environment code draft will be reviewed. The national electricity consumption in the first three quarters reached a record high [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Domestic soda ash production and inventory showed mixed trends. The inventory of float glass samples increased. Urea plant operating rates declined, and inventories rose. Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased, while US natural gas and East China port methanol inventories increased [11][13][15]. - **Metal Futures**: Goldman Sachs maintains a target price for gold in 2026. Antofagasta's copper and gold production increased in Q3. UBS sees value in silver investment. The global zinc market's supply surplus expanded, and the lead market shifted to a shortage in August [17][19][20]. - **Black - series Futures**: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased. The production of rebar increased, and inventories decreased. Fortescue's iron ore production decreased in Q3. Steel inventories fluctuated, and the production of global and Chinese steel decreased in September [22][25]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy may be postponed. International and domestic palm oil prices declined, and the global soybean supply - demand situation changed [27]. Financial Market - **Finance**: A - shares and Hong Kong stocks closed higher. Foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market and recommend investing in technology and anti - involution fields. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has about 300 pending listing applications, and Neolix completed a large - scale financing [30][31]. - **Industry**: The application for car trade - in subsidies exceeded 10 million. A high - precision analog computing chip was developed. The scale of the bank wealth - management market increased. Express business volume and revenue grew. Guangzhou expanded the scope of housing vouchers. Samsung and SK Hynix raised memory prices [33][35]. - **Overseas**: Putin believes US sanctions will not have a major impact on the Russian economy. The US is considering supporting the quantum computing industry. US home sales increased, and South Korea may invest in the US. The central banks of South Korea and Turkey adjusted their interest rates [36][37]. - **International Stock Markets**: US, European, and Japanese stock markets showed different trends. Some companies such as Intel, United利华, and Volvo released their financial reports [40][41]. - **Commodities**: Similar to the overnight night - market trends, precious metals, crude oil, and base metals showed price changes [44][45]. - **Bonds**: The domestic bond market was weak, and the US and South Korean bond markets had new developments. The inclusion criteria for a Chinese bond index were adjusted [47][48][49]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The RMB's global payment share increased, and exchange rates of major currencies fluctuated [50][52]. Upcoming Indicators and Events - A series of economic indicators will be released, including consumer confidence, CPI, and PMI. Multiple important events such as central bank announcements, press conferences, and corporate listings are scheduled [54][57].