Group 1 - A-shares have shown a structural market characteristic, with strong performance in consumer sectors such as food and beverage, and retail, as well as certain technology sectors like AI applications and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][4] - The top five performing industries in A-shares include agriculture, media, food and beverage, electrical equipment, and retail, indicating a growing interest in agricultural assets and a recovery in consumer spending [2] - The bottom five performing industries in A-shares are electronics, steel, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and storage chips, with the decline in non-ferrous metals linked to proposed US tariffs on copper [2] Group 2 - In the Hong Kong market, the healthcare sector has seen a rise due to active innovative drug concepts, despite potential US tariffs on pharmaceuticals [3] - The top three performing industries in Hong Kong include healthcare, industrial, and energy, while the bottom three are materials, information technology, and real estate, reflecting external pressures from US tariff policies and global tech supply-demand imbalances [3] - The current market characteristics indicate that A-shares are driven by policy and sectoral improvements, while Hong Kong stocks are more influenced by external factors such as US tariffs and global technology cycles [4] Group 3 - Short-term market hotspots are concentrated around policy-driven sectors and improving industry conditions, with a focus on performance in the upcoming earnings reports [4] - The breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3500 points is expected to further boost market confidence, with potential policy signals from the July Politburo meeting influencing capital flows [4]

订单方面，2025年第1季受访厂商手头订单的月平均数为3.0个月，较2024年第4季减少0.4个月，其中"成 衣制造业"手头订单数为4.9个月排首位，"药品"和"电子业/电器"本季订单数分别为4.4个月和3.4个 月，"其他非纺织品"为1.0个月。 智通财经APP获悉，澳门统计暨普查局公布的第1季"工业出口状况调查"结果显示，受访厂商对澳门未 来六个月出口前景态度越趋审慎；今年第1季主要出口货品包括药品、电子产品/电器、烟酒、成衣及其 他食品；出口前景相对表现较佳的市场是亚洲及太平洋区(不包括中国内地、中国香港和日本的数据)。 对未来六个月的出口展望，有26.9%的受访厂商看好出口前景，较上一季的23.0%上升3.9个百分点； 52.3%的受访厂商看淡出口前景，较上一季的23.1%上升29.2个百分点；另有20.8%的受访厂商预期出口 前景无显著变动，占比较上一季的53.9%下降33.1个百分点。 影响出口活动的问题中，68.2%的受访厂商表示"订单不足"是主要问题，38.2%表示"原材料价格上升"以 及36.4%认为"外地市场价格竞争剧烈"是主要问题。对未来三个月的展望方面，43.2%及15.8%的厂商分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to analyze the impact of external environment changes on corporate profitability, particularly in the industrial sector, and the necessary policy responses to stabilize profits [2][3]. Group 1: External Demand Exposure - The estimated external demand exposure for industrial revenue is approximately 16.2% [5][20]. - The calculation of external demand exposure is defined as the total export value of industrial enterprises divided by total revenue, with 2024 total exports projected at 25.5 trillion and industrial revenue at 156 trillion [5][20]. Group 2: Export Profit Elasticity - Two pathways are used to estimate the elasticity of industrial profits to export changes: one focusing on revenue and profit margins, and the other on total output [6][8]. - The elasticity of industrial profits to exports is estimated to be between 0.41% and 0.43%, meaning a 1% change in exports could lead to a 0.41% to 0.43% change in industrial profits [21][23]. Group 3: Domestic Demand Elasticity - The elasticity of industrial profits to final consumption is estimated at 0.54%, while to capital formation it is 0.70%, indicating that changes in domestic demand have a significant impact on industrial profits [31][32]. - A 1% increase in final consumption is estimated to increase industrial profits by approximately 0.05 trillion, while a similar increase in capital formation could raise profits by about 0.06 trillion [32]. Group 4: Policy Response Requirements - To stabilize industrial profits, a 1% decline in exports may require a 0.76% increase in final consumption growth or a 0.59% increase in capital formation growth [35][36]. - The required policy response is greater for consumption than for investment, reflecting the broader impact of consumption across various sectors [36]. Group 5: Industry-Level Insights - Industries with high export elasticity include textiles and metal smelting, while those with high elasticity to final consumption include food and tobacco, and paper and education [45][49]. - Industries that could benefit from increased investment include non-metallic products and metal smelting, which have high elasticity to capital formation [49].

2025年7月9日，是越南的"生死线"——若不能与美国达成协议，越南对美出口的纺织、电子等支柱产业将面临46%的"灭顶关税"。 但妥协的代价触目惊心：协议签署次日，美国突然将越南钢铁关税跳涨至50%，当地铝企订单一夜蒸发30%。越南纺织协会副会长陈如 松哀叹："60%面料依赖中国，强行切割等于自断经脉！" 当越南被迫"关门"，中国企业已悄然突围。光伏龙头在越南建硅料厂，但核心技术专利仍牢牢握在中国总部手中，"越南制造"实为"中国 大脑"。电子厂则将最后组装工序转至柬埔寨，利用东盟内部免税政策曲线进入美国市场。 这场谈判背后，藏着美国对中国供应链的精准绞杀：越南被迫签下"投名状"，用封堵中国转口贸易的代价，换取关税从46%降至 20%-25%。但代价有多大？越南工贸部的数据显示，2024年越南对美1235亿美元顺差中，12%来自中国商品"借道"出口，如今这条"黄金 通道"被一刀斩断，全球供应链格局正在崩塌重组。 美国对越南的让步，实为针对中国的一箭双雕。 第一招是数据铁幕：越南海关系统被强制接入美国溯源数据库，光伏板、锂电池等敏感商品从原材料到成品的物流信息，实时同步给美 国海关。这意味着，即便一颗中国螺丝钉在 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 工业盈利：外需敞口与弹性分析 ❖ 核心观点 4 月以来，外部环境出现急剧变化。4 月政治局会议强调，"着力稳就业、稳企 业、稳市场、稳预期"。此处，稳企业的内涵，我们理解或包括稳定企业盈利。 因而，有必要进一步研究外部环境变化对企业盈利的影响幅度以及需要的政策 对冲力度。简言之，工业企业（与出口相关）的外需敞口，内外需盈利弹性。 我们的估算表明，工业部门营收端的外需敞口或在 16.2%左右。从两个路径分 析出口变动对企业盈利影响，路径一为影响工业企业营收与利润率。路径二为 影响全社会总产出进而影响工业企业盈利。1 个百分点的出口变动，工业盈利 增速或变化 0.41%至 0.43%。 内需弹性方面，类似的分析估算表明，最终消费增速变化 1 个百分点，工业盈 利增速或变化 0.54%。资本形成增速变化 1 个百分点，工业盈利增速或变化 0.7%。换言之，1 个百分点的出口变动，需要的对冲力度可能是 0.76%的最终 消费的增速变化或 0.59%的资本形成的增速变化。从 4 月政治局会议来看，最 终消费的政策加码方向为"大力发展服务消费，尽快清理消费领域限制性措施， 设立服务消 ...

Core Viewpoint - Singapore's manufacturing sector continued its growth momentum in April, driven by early shipments in the electronics and aerospace engineering industries, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a month-on-month increase of 5.3%, marking the tenth consecutive month of positive growth [1] Group 1: Manufacturing Performance - The manufacturing sector, excluding biomedical, saw a year-on-year growth of 8.1% in April, with the electronics sector experiencing a significant increase of 15.2% and aerospace engineering growing by 22.9% [1] - The growth in the electronics sector was primarily driven by strong export demand for communications and consumer electronics (up 67.8%), semiconductors (up 11.7%), and computer peripherals (up 11.3%) [1] - The aerospace sector was boosted by robust demand for commercial aviation maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO), which surged by 39.5% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Risks and Concerns - Despite the strong data, analysts express caution regarding future trends, noting that the current manufacturing growth is influenced by an "early shipment effect" that may not be sustainable, especially after the end of the "90-day tariff buffer window" [1] - OCBC Bank predicts that Singapore's manufacturing growth for the entire year of 2025 may only reach 0-2%, with the possibility of negative year-on-year growth in the second half of the year [2] - UOB warns that the significant growth in April was largely due to export companies rushing to ship products to avoid potential tariffs, and future trade disputes, particularly between the US and Europe, could severely impact Singapore's relevant industries [2] Group 3: Subsector Performance - Some manufacturing subsectors in Singapore showed weak performance, with biomedical manufacturing declining by 1.1%, chemicals down by 3.2%, and general manufacturing (including food, printing, and furniture) experiencing a decline of 15.2% [2] - The chemical industry faced challenges due to high inventories of refined oil and petrochemical products, compounded by raw material supply issues and maintenance activities, leading to continued output declines [2] - The biomedical sector's output was affected by changes in the product structure of active pharmaceutical ingredients (API), resulting in a year-on-year decrease in pharmaceutical output of 1.6% [2]

4 月经济数据表现与资产指向 20250519 摘要 • 4 月中国实际 GDP 同比增长约 5.5%，显示经济基本面保持强劲韧性，为 实现全年经济增速目标提供支撑。但需关注美国对华关税生效后的潜在影 响。 • 生产端维持较强景气增长，高技术产业如高端装备制造、集成电路、工业 机器人和新能源车产业链加速发展。但 PMI 新订单指数回落及中小企业信 心下降预示 5 月生产可能受影响。 • 消费端延续结构性特征，社零增速同比增长约 5%，两新商品消费表现突 出。商品消费强于服务消费，但预计下半年服务消费将逐步成为内需重要 支撑。 • 地产需求端逐步企稳，新房销售和房价呈现企稳趋势，但供给端指标下行， 地产开发投资边际转弱，处于寻底过程。 • 4 月投资增速小幅回落，制造业投资具韧性但电子业受关税影响回落，基 建投资保持高增长，新基建领域投资增长强劲。外需压力下，基建稳增长 诉求可能提升。 Q&A 2025 年 4 月中国宏观经济数据表现如何？ 2025 年 4 月中国宏观经济数据表现亮眼，整体延续了较强的韧性。尽管部分 指标如出口、社会消费品零售额和固定资产投资增速较 3 月份有所回落，但仍 好于 2024 年及 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 19 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | 金融对实体经济支持的力度仍然较大—— 2025 年 4 月社融数据点评 2025-05-17 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本 ...

文 | 赵伟、 屠强 、 赵宇 联系人 | 屠强、浦聚颖 摘要 引言：当前中美关税形势迎来缓和，这与关税 1 .0 时期，特朗普政府先极限施压，随后又大规模豁免关 税有类似的特征。这在一定程度上印证了 中国制造 "难替代性"，本文对此进行深入分析。 一问：被低估的关税豁免机制？豁免机制具有独立性，且其覆盖范围广、本轮出台速度更快。 关税豁免机制具有独立性，不依赖中美谈判，主要由美国进口企业主动申请。 2020年1月中美达成第一 阶段经贸协议，而早在2018年7月，美国就已出台首批大规模关税豁免清单。彼时是美国进口商由于经营 压力显著上升，主动向美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）申请豁免。 关税豁免机制作用显著，关税1.0时期的被豁免关税商品占比最高达到60%。 2018年来豁免清单（新增 +延期）共50轮，规模最高达1183亿，排除比例最高达46.2%（年化），单月占比最高达60%。主要豁免 商品为纺织服装（19.3%）、机械设备（12.8%）、橡胶塑料（11.0%）等。 本轮关税豁免速度明显快于1.0时期较快，1.0时期关税豁免历经半年时滞，本轮是加关税后即豁免。 本 轮豁免清单金额已占2024年美国自华总进口 ...

2025年4月28日晚间，安克创新发布2024年年度报告及2025年第一季度报告。年报显示，公司2024年全年实现营业收入 247.1亿元，同比增长41.14%，增速为上市以来最高纪录；净利润21.14亿元，同比增长30.93%。2025年一季度，安克 创新的营业收入达59.93亿元，同比增长36.91%，公司持续保持强劲的发展势头。 "面对不确定性交织的宏观环境以及AI带来的科技浪潮，科技企业与智能硬件相关行业从业者有机会以AI变革为杠杆 撬动增长，加速技术创新与绿色转型，深化AI与物联网、智能硬件、新能源等行业技术的融合，同时通过全球供应链 管理体系的建立打破贸易壁垒，在变局中挖掘结构性机遇，提升可持续竞争力。"安克创新在财报中表示，安克创新当 前正锚定战略发展目标，加速向"多品类全球化智能硬件科技企业"转型升级。 三大品类齐增长，储能业务增速达到184% 安克创新科技股份有限公司成立于2011年，是国内营收规模最大的全球化消费电子品牌企业之一，专注于智能配件和 智能硬件的设计、研发和销售。企业业务从线上起步，主要销售渠道为Amazon、Ebay、天猫、京东等海内外线上平 台，产品销往全球100多个国家和 ...