Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - Since 2025, the volatility of the dollar exchange rate has increased significantly, showing short-term weakness and long-term strength characteristics[1] - The short-term changes reflect a recalibration phase in market expectations regarding interest rates, cross-border capital flows, and risk pricing[1] - The dollar index remains supported by its status as a reserve currency and relatively robust economic fundamentals, despite changes in its operational dynamics[1] Group 2: Quantile Analysis Results - The rolling quantile analysis indicates that the 2-year quantile position of the dollar index has significantly declined, suggesting a temporary easing of the dollar's strength[2] - In contrast, the 15-year long-term quantile remains in a relatively high range, indicating strong structural support for the dollar[2] - The comparison of short-term and long-term quantiles reveals a growing divergence, with short-term pricing pressures dominating volatility while long-term support persists[8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The dollar is expected to continue oscillating within a wide range as it navigates the interaction between short-term corrections and long-term support[12] - The analysis predicts that uncertainty will accumulate over the next 12 months, with the distribution range of the dollar index expanding over time[12] - The dollar's future path will be systematically constrained by interest rate differentials and risk pricing mechanisms, maintaining a balance between short-term fluctuations and long-term stability[11]