周四（9月25日）亚盘早盘，美元指数最新价报97.78，跌幅0.09%，开盘价为97.86。本周布伦特原油价 格每桶已上涨超过2美元，周三盘中最高触及68.42美元，已与9月18日的高点持平。 技术图表显示，原油价格已突破100日和55日移动均线以及日线云图底部，呈现看涨突破信号。若能突 破9月16日高点68.69美元，油价可能进一步升向9月高点69.53美元。一旦油价收盘价能高于云图底部 67.72美元，则有望进一步向云图顶部73.21美元迈进。机构分析指出，原油价格的上涨将对那些押注欧 元和日元升值的投机者构成冲击。原油价格的走强可能削弱欧元和日元的价值，对相关货币的空头头寸 构成压力。 日线图显示，美元指数当前布林中轨97.7747、上轨98.7304、下轨96.8190。价格位于中轨下方、靠近中 下轨区间，表明短线仍处弱势盘整并带有布林带挤压的收敛特征；若不能有效收复中轨，倾向在中轨— 下轨间反复回测。蜡烛图上，近期曾出现下影线极长的探底(低点96.2109)，随后反弹至97上方但受压于 中轨，显示下方逢低承接存在，但上方动态阻力抬头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to both external and internal factors, including signals from the Federal Reserve and a strong domestic capital market [1][2]. External Factors - The shift in the Federal Reserve's policy has opened up space for RMB appreciation, leading to a significant drop in the US dollar index [2]. - The weakening of the US dollar has encouraged export companies to accelerate their currency conversion, contributing to the RMB's strength [2]. Internal Factors - The recent recovery of the domestic capital market, particularly the A-share market, has increased risk appetite and led to a rise in cross-border capital inflows into RMB assets [2]. - China's stable economic growth and favorable foreign trade conditions, along with a high trade surplus, have improved market sentiment and reduced concerns over trade tensions [2]. Short-term Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue fluctuating within a range, supported by stable domestic economic performance and increased currency conversion by enterprises [3]. - A slight adjustment in the RMB exchange rate was observed following a significant rise, influenced by technical corrections and a minor rebound in the US dollar index [2]. Long-term Outlook - The RMB is anticipated to maintain a strong position in the short term, with potential for appreciation, while the long-term outlook remains stable due to the Federal Reserve's policies and domestic economic stability [3]. - The risks of significant appreciation or depreciation of the RMB are considered low, with ample policy space for counter-cyclical adjustments to ensure economic stability [3].

Group 1 - President Trump has called for the immediate dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged false statements in mortgage documents [2] - Cook claimed her properties in Michigan and Georgia were her primary residences, which Trump views as deceptive [2] - Cook has stated she will not resign and will continue her duties to support the U.S. economy, as she has done since 2022 [2] Group 2 - Fed Chair Powell's stance has shifted, indicating a potential adjustment in policy, which may reflect pressure from Trump [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on September 18, suggesting a loss of independence under White House influence [3] Group 3 - Following Powell's remarks, the U.S. dollar index experienced significant fluctuations, initially dropping but then rebounding [5] - The rebound in the dollar index may not indicate a reversal of the Fed's rate cut expectations, as the overall trend remains bearish since August [5]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, supported by recent inflation and employment data [1][4][5] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with overall inflation rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been unexpectedly mild, with energy prices down 1.1% and food prices stable, indicating that businesses are absorbing most of the additional costs associated with tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with potential downward revisions to employment data, which may pressure the Federal Reserve's stance [6][8] - The dollar index has resumed its downward trend, indicating potential weakness for the dollar unless other major central banks act more quickly to ease policies [8][9] - The U.S. stock market has rebounded significantly since April, driven by strong earnings recovery, particularly in the technology sector, which has outperformed other sectors [11][12] Group 3 - The Nasdaq index is approaching the 24,000-point mark, with potential for further gains if it can maintain levels above 24,100 points [12] - The overall market rebound is concentrated among a few leading companies, with the S&P 500 index showing that only a small percentage of companies have reached new highs [11]

日图；金价连续两日震荡止跌回升，目前已初步重回60日及中轨上方运行，多头动力增强，中轨及60日 均线则转为看涨支撑，也暗示后市有望再度上探3440美元附近阻力，如突破则有望刷新历史新高至之前 说道的3570美元，反之遇阻则继续震荡调整。 今日周四，黄金开盘延续昨日尾盘回升之力，先行表现走强，其中轨和60日均线支撑展现买盘情绪，另 外，本周降息预期的连续升温，9月降息预板上钉钉，后续预展开超预期的力度周期，而打压美元连续 走弱，将会在降息落地之前，继续支持金价反弹走强。 美元指数日图走势，持续运行在中轨等均线下方，并跌破近期上升趋势支撑，周图也运行在5-10周均线 下方，空头力量加强，暗示短期将继续回落，而利好金价，故此，短期来看，金价仍将震荡调整或反弹 回升为主。 日内将关注美国至8月9日当周初请失业金人数(万人)、美国7月PPI年率及月率，市场预期初请数据高于 前值，而利好金价，后者PPI整体升高，通胀上升，将会减弱降息预期，但根据近期的降息政策的呼吁 力度和概率来看，利空影响有限，故此，美盘时段偏向震荡上行为主。 ...

Group 1 - The current spot gold price has risen slightly to $3303 per ounce before the non-farm payroll report [1] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has seen a short-term increase of nearly 10 points, reaching 100.23 [1] Group 2 - The movements in spot gold and the US Dollar Index indicate market reactions ahead of significant economic data releases [2]

Group 1 - The gold market is currently experiencing narrow fluctuations as investors await the outcome of the tariff agreement expiration and significant economic data releases, leading to a cautious sentiment and continuation of the previous day's pullback pressure [1] - The US dollar index maintains its rebound momentum, which is expected to limit bullish trends in gold prices. The weekly chart indicates that the dollar index has rebounded above the middle track, with clear bullish signals in the indicators, suggesting a potential strengthening in August that could exert pressure on gold prices [3] - Despite the strengthening of the dollar index, the long-term trend of gold prices remains uncertain, with expectations of either continued fluctuations or a potential upward trend. Key economic data to watch includes the US unemployment rate and non-farm employment figures, with market expectations indicating a rise in unemployment and a decrease in non-farm employment, which could be favorable for gold prices [3][4] Group 2 - The daily chart shows that gold prices closed higher yesterday, remaining above the 100-day moving average and forming a bottoming pattern, indicating potential for further strength towards the $3,400 level. However, there is still downward pressure, and a return above the 60-day moving average is necessary to increase bullish momentum [4] - If gold prices fall below the 100-day moving average support, they may decline to the $3,100 or $3,000 levels. Therefore, the market is expected to experience a period of consolidation before making a decisive move either upwards or downwards [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - FOMC resolution is moderate, still emphasizing economic uncertainty. The federal funds rate remains unchanged as expected. There is a certain degree of divergence in views within the Fed, and the market price reaction is relatively small after the resolution is issued [4]. - The press - conference speech is hawkish, strengthening the view of not setting a rate - cut path. Powell indicates that it's inappropriate to use the previous rate - cut path prediction, and the market starts to price in no rate cut in September [4]. - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bear - flattening trend, and the US dollar may strengthen. In the medium - to - long term, factors may cause the US dollar index to decline, and the downward direction of bond yields in China remains unchanged [4]. Summary by Directory 1. What to focus on in the Fed's interest - rate meeting? 1.1 FOMC resolution is moderate, still emphasizing economic uncertainty - The description of economic growth in the fundamental assessment is adjusted to indicate that the Fed defines the US GDP growth in H1 2025 as a slowdown [7]. - The description in the risk assessment shows that the Fed believes the economic outlook is not clearer and needs more data for the next step [7]. - Two Fed governors oppose the resolution, indicating differences within the Fed on inflation expectations and policy goals [7]. - The market has a relatively mild immediate reaction after the resolution is released [10]. 1.2 The press - conference speech is hawkish, strengthening the view of not setting a rate - cut path - Powell believes it's inappropriate to use the previous rate - cut path prediction [13]. - He thinks the inflation transmission path of tariffs is not clear, and the impact on consumption terminals needs more information [14]. - He believes the labor market is roughly balanced and consistent with maximum employment [14]. - The market starts to price in no rate cut in September after his speech [15]. 2. How to view the market? - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bear - flattening trend, with the two - year US Treasury rate expected to fluctuate between 3.8% - 4.2% and the 10 - year US Treasury rate between 4.25% - 4.65% [18]. - In the short term, the US dollar index may maintain strength and rise above 100 due to tariff negotiation details and expected strong yields of US dollar assets [18]. - In the medium - to - long term, factors may cause the US dollar index to decline, and the downward direction of bond yields in China is determined by domestic economic and policy rhythms [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, where he expressed a strong desire for interest rate cuts, indicating a potential influence on future monetary policy decisions [1][2]. - Trump's visit comes just before a crucial two-day interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve, with market expectations leaning towards maintaining the current benchmark rate of 4.25%-4.50% [2]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, reported at 97.57 with a rise of 0.09%, indicating a potential recovery from previous declines [1]. Group 2 - Trump's comments during the visit suggest a continued push for lower borrowing costs to stimulate economic growth, which he believes will benefit American businesses and consumers [2]. - Despite his previous criticisms of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, Trump's tone during this visit appeared more conciliatory, opting for public appeals rather than direct pressure [2]. - The technical analysis of the dollar index indicates a fragile recovery, with key resistance levels at 98.400 and support at 96.377, suggesting that the index's future movements will be closely watched [3].

Group 1 - The global financial market is set to experience significant events this week, including earnings reports from major companies, key housing data releases, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, which may disrupt the current market calm and create new volatility opportunities for forex traders [1] - U.S. stock futures showed slight declines, with the Dow Jones futures down by 16 points, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also slightly lower, indicating a cautious investor sentiment [1] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has slightly decreased to 4.42%, while the dollar remains stable against major currencies, reflecting market reactions to Japan's recent upper house election results [1][5] Group 2 - If Asian market interest rates continue to rise, it may attract some capital back, potentially weakening demand for dollar-denominated assets, which could impact the medium-term outlook for the dollar index [6] - In the commodities market, gold prices have dropped to $3,353.60 per ounce, while U.S. and Brent crude oil prices have slightly increased to $67.48 and $69.41 per barrel, respectively, indicating mixed sentiments regarding economic prospects [6] - The upcoming earnings season will feature major tech companies, including Tesla and Alphabet, with expectations that better-than-expected results could boost market risk appetite and influence currency pair movements [6] - Key U.S. housing data will be released midweek, which may affect market perceptions of U.S. economic growth amid signs of a cooling real estate market [6] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and another official will speak on Tuesday, and the market will look for clues regarding the future interest rate path, which could inform trading strategies based on potential dollar movements [6]