创新药行情分化
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平安基金周思聪:创新药行情将步入分化期 未来超额收益将更多来源于个股选择
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-11-27 13:44
Core Viewpoint - The phase of broad increases in the innovative drug sector may be over, and the next two years will be a critical period for differentiation among innovative drug companies, making selective stock picking and focusing on true leaders a more suitable investment strategy [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company will continue to focus on domestic commercialization and international expansion, prioritizing companies that excel in both areas rather than solely betting on business development (BD) transactions [1] - Valuations driven solely by BD are considered fragile, necessitating a careful assessment of associated risks [1] - The market tends to factor in potential total value (including milestone payments) into stock prices at the announcement of BD transactions, but the realization of milestone payments is uncertain and depends on clinical and regulatory success [1] Group 2: Sector Outlook - The company is optimistic about specific segments within innovative drugs, including Antibody-Drug Conjugates (ADC), multi-antibodies, cell and gene therapy, and autoimmune products [2] - Beyond innovative drugs, the company also sees potential in medical devices, Contract Research Organizations (CRO), and medical services [2] - The medical device sector is expected to experience significant growth in orders and inventory digestion due to increased procurement data amid a replacement trend [2] - The CRO sector is likely to benefit from the global shift towards research outsourcing, maintaining steady growth [2] - Economic recovery is anticipated to boost demand for medical services, particularly in high-end and specialized medical services [2]