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委内瑞拉原油“解冻”,另有隐情?
中国能源报· 2026-01-19 08:54
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent resumption of oil production by Venezuela's state oil company is politically driven and does not indicate a genuine recovery of production capacity, but rather a temporary arrangement influenced by U.S. sanctions [1][2][3] - Venezuela's oil production has drastically declined from over 3 million barrels per day in the late 1990s to less than 1 million barrels currently, with the Orinoco heavy oil belt's production dropping from 675,000 barrels per day in late November 2025 to about 410,000 barrels [5][6] - The U.S. is strategically loosening sanctions to allow for limited oil exports, which may help alleviate domestic energy costs while maintaining political control over the situation [3][8] Group 2 - Major international oil companies, including Chevron and Vitol, have expressed interest in investing in Venezuela, with discussions around a potential $100 billion investment to boost oil production [2][4] - The current infrastructure in Venezuela is severely outdated, requiring hundreds of billions of dollars and several years to restore production capacity, with many oil wells idle and lacking significant exploration activities [5][6] - The limited return of Venezuelan oil to the market is not expected to significantly impact global oil prices in the short term, but it may influence market expectations and sentiment [8][9] Group 3 - The potential for Venezuela to increase oil production could disrupt the OPEC+ strategy of maintaining high oil prices, leading to a more diversified global oil supply [9] - The U.S. is shifting from a strategy of total blockade to a more nuanced approach of selective sanctions, allowing for resource flow while ensuring strategic objectives are met [9][10]