智通财经APP获悉，开源证券发布研报称，OCI和股票自营、海外业务高增或带来券商中报超预期，预 计2025H1上市券商业绩同比增速有望超50%(扣非口径)，环比增速可期。2024年新国九条、央行等金融 部委组合拳稳股市的长效影响延续，个人投资者和中长资金持续流入，交易活跃度中枢抬升逻辑验证， 券商港股业务和投行业务逐步改善，当下估值仍在低位，机构欠配显著，继续推荐券商板块机会。关注 业绩预告、稳定币主题以及基准回补等催化。 经纪+权益自营+海外驱动中报同比高增，债券自营+投行支撑Q2环比 (1)预计经纪业务、权益自营和海外业务同比高增是券商中报净利润增长核心驱动因素。2025H1市场日 均股基交易额1.6万亿，同比+66%，驱动证券行业经纪业务同比高增。市场震荡上涨+交易量活跃利好 券商权益自营投资以及相关衍生品业务(2024年初市场波动导致部分券商衍生品业务亏损)，2025H1沪深 300/万得全A上涨0.3%/5.8%(2024H1为+0.9%/-8.0%)。上半年港股市场景气度较高，2025上半年香港市 场现货ADT 2402亿港元，同比+118%，北向ADT 1713亿人民币，同比+32%，南向ADT ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-bank financial industry is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the performance of 25 listed securities firms has exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 78%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16% in the second quarter [4] - Key drivers for the growth in net profit include high growth in brokerage, proprietary trading, and overseas business, with the average daily trading volume in the stock market reaching 1.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66% [5] - The report anticipates that the overall performance of listed securities firms in the first half of 2025 will exceed a 50% year-on-year growth rate, driven by favorable market conditions and increased trading activity [7] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The report indicates that the net profit growth of listed securities firms is primarily driven by brokerage business, proprietary trading, and overseas operations, with significant increases in trading volumes in both domestic and Hong Kong markets [5][6] - The second quarter saw a notable improvement in the bond market, contributing to the quarter-on-quarter growth of some securities firms [6] Market Trends - The report notes that the current market risk appetite has improved, which is expected to act as a catalyst for the rise in the securities sector [4] - The Hong Kong market has shown high activity, with a year-on-year increase of 118% in average daily trading volume [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of opportunity within the securities sector, highlighting specific stocks such as Guotai Junan, Hong Kong Exchanges, and Dongfang Securities as key picks [7]