Core Viewpoint - Chinese brokerage stocks experienced a sharp decline in the afternoon trading session, despite strong earnings forecasts for the second quarter from several A-share listed brokerages [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Everbright Securities (601788) fell by 3.57%, trading at HKD 10.8 - China Merchants Securities (600999) decreased by 3.41%, trading at HKD 17 - Guolian Securities (601456) dropped by 3.32%, trading at HKD 6.11 - CITIC Securities (601066) declined by 2.26%, trading at HKD 12.98 [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecasts - 24 A-share listed brokerages have released mid-year earnings forecasts, indicating a year-on-year profit growth range of 65%-80% for the first half of 2025, with an average growth of 72% after excluding negative goodwill from the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong [1] - The second quarter is expected to show a 13% increase compared to the first quarter [1] Group 3: Market Trends - The Hong Kong Securities Index has risen by 49.92% year-to-date, while the average increase for 13 A+H component brokerages in A-shares is only 4.63% [1] - The AH premium rate for the entire market has decreased to below 125%, with the brokerage sector experiencing an even more significant contraction [1] - Increased foreign investment in Chinese assets and institutional preference for high-dividend, low-valuation Hong Kong stocks have led to a notable outperformance of H-shares compared to A-shares [1] - There is an emphasis on the potential for A-share brokerages to catch up in the second half of the year [1]

消息面上，A股上市公司进入业绩预告密集披露期。交银国际指出，从公布业绩预告的券商来看，二季 度业绩仍保持强劲增长，增速超我们预期。目前已有24家A股上市券商公布中报业绩预告，2025年上半 年盈利同比增长区间在65%-80%（扣除国泰海通合并产生的负商誉），平均增长72%；二季度环比一季 度增长13%。 申万宏源此前指出，香港证券指数年初至今上涨49.92%，而对应的13家A+H成分股券商A股同期涨幅均 值仅4.63%。券商AH溢价率已经显著收窄：根据恒生沪深港通AH溢价指数，当前全市场AH溢价率已经 下行至125%以下，而券商板块AH溢价率收窄更甚。该行认为外资增持中国资产、机构（险资、公募） 青睐投资高股息、低估值的港股，致使券商H股涨幅明显好于A股。重视下半年券商A股的补涨逻辑。 智通财经APP获悉，中资券商股午后快速走低，截至发稿，光大证券(06178)跌3.57%，报10.8港元；招 商证券(06099)跌3.41%，报17港元；国联民生(01456)跌3.32%，报6.11港元；中信建投证券(06066)跌 2.26%，报12.98港元。 ...