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热点思考 | 7月出口会再超预期吗?(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-07-23 12:29
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that export indicators for July show signs of improvement, particularly in exports to emerging countries, with a marginal increase of 8% in foreign trade port cargo volume [2][8][112] - The container throughput at foreign trade ports increased by 8.9% year-on-year in July, indicating a potential short-term improvement in actual export volume [2][8][112] - The structure of exports shows a significant recovery in container cargo volume from China to Vietnam, rising to over 60%, while exports to the US have declined [2][13][112] Group 2 - Container shipping rates have been declining since July, with the CCFI composite index dropping 4.8% over three weeks, indicating varying impacts on different shipping routes [3][21][113] - The relative price changes in shipping rates suggest better export performance to emerging markets compared to the US, with the East-South Asia and East-West Africa routes showing higher rates [3][32][113] Group 3 - Production indicators for July show a rebound in export-related production, particularly in the consumption and metallurgy chains, with a 1% year-on-year increase in foreign trade road freight [4][5][114] - The overall export production index increased by 0.5 percentage points in July, indicating a potential continuation of export improvement [5][115] Group 4 - Macro leading indicators, such as a 3.3 percentage point increase in processing trade imports in June, suggest that July exports may rise to around 8% [6][92][100] - The high level of the Yiwu small commodity export price index supports the expectation of higher cross-border export growth to Europe and the UK [6][95][100] Group 5 - There are concerns about potential declines in export figures after September due to the end of "export rush," with signs of weakening in strong-performing export chains [7][100][117] - The new export PMI for metallurgy and consumption chains has shown a decline, indicating possible future decreases in export figures [7][100][117]