Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index has decreased significantly, indicating a downward trend in shipping rates as of January 23, with a reported index of 1457.86 points, down by 116.26 points from the previous period [1] Group 1: Shipping Industry - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (composite index) stands at 1457.86 points as of January 23 [1] - There has been a decline of 116.26 points compared to the previous period, reflecting a notable decrease in shipping rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) increased by 1% this week, reaching $2,213 per FEU, marking a "four-week consecutive rise" in container rates [1] Group 1: Container Shipping Industry Trends - The spot rates on the Asia-Europe route have maintained an upward trend for four consecutive weeks [1] - Historical data indicates that December cargo volumes on this route have consistently recorded double-digit month-on-month growth over the past three years, establishing a strong year-end cargo volume as a "new normal" [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Shipping companies have begun accepting early bookings ahead of the Lunar New Year in February 2026, leading Drewry to anticipate a continued slight increase in rates next week [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - After MSK's first passage through the Red Sea, the market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, suggesting a potential reversal signal. Investors are advised to take profits and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. The core of the freight rate trend lies in traditional seasonality and the resumption of Red Sea shipping, and the current spot price has slightly declined. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the main contract has had a seasonal rebound, so light - position participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. With the fading of optimistic sentiment and the withdrawal of long - position funds, the market is under pressure and fluctuating weakly, and attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Indexes - On December 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1589.20 points, up 5.2% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 962.10 points, up 4.1% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1552.92 points, up 46.46 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1533 USD/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 1992 USD/FEU, up 11.91% from the previous period [3]. - On December 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1094.77 points, up 3.20% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1067.29 points, up 0.30% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1228.34 points, up 19.28% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1124.73 points, up 0.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1473.90 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 792.06 points, down 0.9% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - In the Eurozone, the preliminary composite PMI value in November was 52.4, slightly lower than the October data of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50, basically in line with expectations. The service industry and manufacturing industry were differentiated, with the service industry PMI value at 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The Eurozone's December Sentix investor confidence index was - 6.2, with an expected value of - 7 and a previous value of - 7.4 [3]. - In November, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with improved business sentiment. In October, the composite PMI output index was 49.7, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time since 2023. The US November S&P Global services PMI preliminary value was 55, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.8. The US November S&P Global composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, rising for the second consecutive month, with an expected value of 54.6 and a previous value of 54.6 [4]. Market Conditions of the Main Contract - On December 24, the main contract 2602 closed at 1795.8, with a decline of 1.63%, a trading volume of 23,700 lots, and an open interest of 34,300 lots, a decrease of 688 lots from the previous day [4]. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: Since the main contract has reached a new high, it is recommended to take all profits and adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term, and not to add more positions. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international geopolitical turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try with a light position. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract reaches a high, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. - The intraday opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS is significantly lower than the market expectation of around 1650 points, possibly due to delayed low - price PA ships, partial cargo rejection, and a high proportion of low - price containers in the index. Based on quotes, P1 is about 1550 - 1600 points (PA low - price may be lower, around 1500 - 1550 points), P2 is about 1650 - 1700 points, and P3 is expected to remain flat [3]. - The valuation of the 02 contract is neutral with short - term upward drivers because of the improvement in cargo volume, leading to expectations of flat freight rates in late December and price increases in January [3]. - The lower - than - expected SCFIS may cause the morning trading session to be weak. Historically, freight rate peaks usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (corresponding to mid - to - late January 2026), but the large supply of shipping capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. A cautious long - position view is maintained [3]. - The short - term downside space of the 04 contract is small. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when the 04 contract may rise following the near - month contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: For example, the EC2512 contract had a closing price of 1669.8 with a 0.68% increase, while the EC2606 contract had a closing price of 1217.3 with a 2.81% decrease [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The EC2602 contract had a trading volume of 19294 and an open interest of 31466 with a decrease of 749 in open interest [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 592.1, with a day - on - day increase of 26.4 [2]. Spot Market - **SCFIS (European Route)**: On December 8, 2025, the index was 1509.10 points, up 1.72% from the previous period, and the container rate was 1400 dollars/TEU, down 0.28% [2]. - **CCFI and NCFI**: On December 5, 2025, the CCFI was 1447.56 points, down 0.12% from the previous period, and the NCFI was 967.55 points, down 5.57% from the previous period [2]. European Route Spot Situation - **Week 50**: MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, setting the tone, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2200 dollars, equivalent to 1550 points on the index. COSCO's offline price is 2400 dollars (+200 dollars) [4]. - **Week 51**: MSK's opening price was 2400 dollars (+200 dollars), and it announced a price increase for January, with freight rates for 20/40 - foot containers on the European route rising to 2275/3500 dollars respectively [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is continuously speculating on the implementation expectations of price increases in the second half of December and January, and the EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation [5]. - It is expected that the trading logics of the December and February contracts will diverge. The December contract follows the price in the second half of December, while the February contract focuses on the expected price increase and its implementation in January. The spread between the two contracts is uncertain, and the improvement in cargo volume needs to be tracked [6]. - The second - stage peace talks are expected to be tortuous. It is difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, but the probability of resumption after the Spring Festival may gradually increase [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On December 2, EC2512 closed at 1,633.6 points, down 0.19% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line on November 28 was reported at $1,404/TEU, up 2.7% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported after Monday's market close was 1,483.65 points, down 9.5% month - on - month, slightly lower than market expectations [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Spot Market**: MSK released a quote of $2,400 for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 51, up $200 from last week. Some shipping companies have announced price increases for the second half of December, with online quotes ranging from $2,800 to $3,500 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The demand for shipping from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in December is 283,200 TEU, and the weekly average capacities in January and February 2026 are 298,800 TEU and 280,500 TEU respectively [6]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The second - stage peace talks are expected to be difficult, and it is hard to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival. The number of return ships passing through the Suez Canal is expected to gradually increase, and the probability of resumption after the Spring Festival may rise [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Single - side Trading**: Hold long positions in EC2602 and pay attention to the rhythm of shipping companies' price increases and cargo volume improvement [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking on the 2 - 4 positive spread [8]. 3.1.2 Industry News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the market expectation of 49, and it has been in the contraction range for nine consecutive months [10]. - HMM, South Korea's largest liner company, signed a shipbuilding order worth approximately $1.445 billion to build 8 dual - fuel container ships of 13,400 TEU, which are expected to be delivered in the first half of 2029 [10]. 3.2 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures showing the trends of various shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS European Line Index, SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [12][15][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the mainstream shipping companies' long - term contract season price increase fell short of expectations, and the EC market fluctuated at a low level after a sharp rise and fall. The market has different views on the future freight rate levels, and the freight rate trend in December is relatively volatile [8][17][158]. - The delivery volume of new container ships in October continued to decline, and the container shipping market is expected to face another peak of ship deliveries starting from next year. Attention should be paid to the subsequent ship schedule arrangements and deployments [53]. - The impact of US tariffs continues to affect global trade. Weak demand led to a decline in exports in October. However, Sino - US tariff negotiations have achieved results, and the two sides have mutually adjusted tariff measures, which has released a signal of easing bilateral economic and trade relations [127][146]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Foreword Summary - **Market Review**: In December, the traditional peak season arrived, and shipping companies' long - term contract cargo improved. However, due to the average cargo - booking situation in the spot market in the first half of December, most shipping companies lowered their quotes. The actual freight rates were mostly between 2000 - 2400 US dollars/FEU, lower than the initial price increase target of 3100 - 3200 US dollars/FEU. The market still has different views on the December freight rates [3][158]. - **Market Outlook**: From the fundamental perspective, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve. In terms of supply, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in November/December is 262,300/272,200 TEU, and it will be 300,300 TEU in January 2026. The valuation center in December has shifted downwards, but there is still an expectation of price support in the second half of December and January. The 02 contract is still given a partial discount based on the spread with the 12 contract, but the spread between 12 - 2 is uncertain, depending on whether shipping companies still have price increase actions in the second half of December and January. Geopolitically, it is expected to be difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming shipping from Asia to Europe may gradually increase after the Spring Festival, which will put pressure on the contracts after 04 [4][158][159]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the EC2602 contract, consider going long on dips and pay attention to the subsequent price increase actions of shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume. Hold the 2 - 4 positive spread [6][159]. 3.2 Market Review The mainstream shipping companies' long - term contract season price increase implementation fell short of expectations. In November, the EC market first rose sharply due to the digestion of price increase sentiment, then fell back as shipping companies lowered their spot quotes, and finally dropped significantly at the end of November due to the larger - than - expected price cut in December [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - **Differences in Cargo - Booking Situations in the Peak Season**: In November, the actual implementation of shipping companies' price increases was average, and the spot freight rates first rose slightly and then fell back. In December, although the long - term contract cargo improved, the spot cargo - booking situation was average, and some shipping companies lowered their quotes for the first half of December. The market still has different views on the freight rates in the second half of December and January [17]. - **Container New Ship Delivery Volume Continued to Decline in October**: In October, the global delivery of new container ships was 149,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 20.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.4%. The new order volume in October was 81,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 80.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.8%. It is expected that the container shipping market will face another peak of ship deliveries starting from next year [53]. - **US Tariffs Affected Global Trade and Caused a Decline in Exports in October**: In October, China's exports were 305.35 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year and the impact of US tariffs on the global trade chain. Exports to the US continued to decline deeply, exports to the EU grew slowly, and exports to ASEAN maintained strong growth [127]. 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - **Future Outlook**: The freight rate trend in December is volatile, and the market has different views on the freight rates. The 12 - month valuation center has shifted downwards, but there is still an expectation of price support in the second half of December and January. Geopolitically, it is expected to be difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming shipping from Asia to Europe may gradually increase after the Spring Festival, which will put pressure on the contracts after 04 [158][159]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: For the EC2602 contract, consider going long on dips and pay attention to the subsequent price increase actions of shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume. Hold the 2 - 4 positive spread [6][159].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to pessimistic sentiment, the market has been declining significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see. The freight rate has no obvious fluctuations. The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract has shown a seasonal rebound, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [1][3] 3. Summary of Related Contents 3.1 Freight Index Changes - On November 24, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 946.44 points, down 5.33% from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1639.37 points, up 20.7% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 951.65 points, down 2.83% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1107.85 points, down 10.5% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 955.93 points, down 9.17% from the previous period [2] - On November 21, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1393.56 points, down 57.82 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 1122.79 points, up 2.6% from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1367 USD/TEU, down 3.53% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1432.96 points, up 2.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1645 USD/FEU, down 9.76% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 850.96 points, up 0.6% from the previous period [2] 3.2 PMI Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level declined. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2] 3.3 Main Contract Information - On November 26, the main contract 2602 closed at 1387.4, a decline of 7.62%, with a trading volume of 38,100 lots and an open interest of 44,100 lots, a decrease of 4222 lots from the previous day [3] 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - Short - term strategy: The main contract has retraced, and the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - takers are recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the range of 1550 - 1600. After the market dives sharply, it is not recommended to add positions or hold losses. Set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] 3.5 Policy Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [4] 3.6 Geopolitical News - On November 25 (local time), the Director of the Egyptian General Intelligence Service and the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Qatar held talks in Cairo on the Gaza cease - fire. They agreed to continue cooperation and coordination with the US to maintain the Gaza cease - fire and implement the second phase of the cease - fire agreement [5] - The CEO of Maersk said that he was encouraged by the Gaza peace process, which would help establish freedom of navigation in the Mandeb Strait and restore normal trade routes [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - MSK announced a price increase for late - October freight rates, causing the market to rise significantly. However, it is not recommended to add more positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [5]. - In the short - term, the main contract remains weak, and far - month contracts are stronger. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Do not hold positions stubbornly and set stop - losses. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the pull - back to stabilize before making further judgments [5]. 3. Content Summaries 3.1 Freight Indexes - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [3]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [3]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; for the US - West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [3]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1, higher than expected [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4]. 3.3 Market and Strategy - On September 25, the main contract 2510 closed at 1173.0, up 3.99%, with a trading volume of 3.89 million lots and an open interest of 3.55 million lots, a decrease of 5414 lots from the previous day [5]. - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and far - month contracts are strong. Stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Pay attention to the market trend, do not hold positions stubbornly, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international instability, each contract maintains seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [5]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, and wait for the pull - back to stabilize before making further judgments [5]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Sino - US tariff issue continues to be postponed, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries [5]. - The Houthi armed forces launched a drone attack on Israel on September 24, causing at least 22 people to be injured [6]. - The Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, and China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. issued an action plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 - 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [6].

Freight Rates and Market Sentiment - Spot freight rates remain low, with a pessimistic market sentiment leading to continued declines, suggesting no further accumulation and the importance of setting stop-loss orders[1] - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes decreased by 8.1% to 1440.24 points, while the index for US West Coast routes increased by 37.7% to 1349.84 points[2] - The overall Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped by 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, reflecting an 8.8% decrease in rates for European routes and a 31.0% decrease for US West Coast routes[2] Economic Indicators - Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to 50.5, above the expected 49.5, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity[2] - The US manufacturing PMI reached a 39-month high of 53.3, significantly above the forecast of 49.5, suggesting robust manufacturing growth[2] Trade and Tariff Developments - Ongoing delays in US-China tariff negotiations have led to a marginalization of tariff issues, with current focus shifting to spot freight rates[3] - The main contract closed at 1050.5, reflecting a 6.00% decline, with trading volume at 32,100 contracts and an increase in open interest by 542 contracts[3] Strategic Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests maintaining a weak position in main contracts while waiting for bottoming opportunities, advising against holding positions without stop-loss measures[4] - Long-term strategy recommends taking profits on high positions and waiting for stabilization before making further directional judgments[4] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and volatile oil prices are contributing to market instability, necessitating close monitoring of these factors[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the European route is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The growth rate of demand on the European route is expected to slow down from the second half of 2025 due to factors such as weak European exports, inventory cycle changes, and a high trade base [2][13][14] - The over - supply pressure on the European route persists, although the new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down in the fourth quarter. Market competition is intensifying, and the spill - over of other routes' pressure may exacerbate the situation [3][41] - The freight rate on the European route may have a short - term rebound during the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. There are investment opportunities in the 12 - contract under certain conditions [4][48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Slowdown in European Route Demand Growth - The growth momentum of US - EU trade has weakened in the short term due to a higher - than - expected tariff level in the trade agreement and the overdraft of forward demand caused by early restocking in the US [13] - The US may have entered the active destocking phase, and given the strong linkage of the inventory cycle between the US and Europe, the restocking momentum in Europe is weakening, which may suppress European import demand [13] - Despite the slowdown in demand growth, Asia - Europe trade will maintain a high base due to capacity substitution. The price gap between China and Europe is difficult to narrow quickly, and the trade deficit continues to expand [13][14] 3.2. Impact of the Delayed Spring Festival on the Peak - Season Cargo Volume Rhythm - Affected by the National Day holiday, the Asia - Europe trade demand in October is expected to decline significantly month - on - month. The demand is expected to gradually recover in November and enter the traditional peak season in December [29] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 will relieve the freight pressure during the peak season, and the monthly freight volume distribution from December to February next year will be more balanced [29] 3.3. Slower New Ship Delivery and Weaker Impact on the European Route - The pressure of capacity growth on the European route is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down, and the capacity growth rate of large - scale container ships has decreased [33] - The current European route capacity is relatively saturated. New ships to be delivered in the fourth quarter are likely to be used for other routes or replacement of existing ships, with limited additional capacity supply for the European route [33][35] 3.4. Persistent Excess Pressure and Vigilance against Marginal Disturbances - The supply ceiling on the European route has increased, and the capacity gap has narrowed, resulting in an oversupply situation. The upper - limit capacity is 8% - 13% higher than the critical value, suppressing the market [41] - The market structure on the European route has changed from oligopoly to oligopolistic competition, intensifying price - cutting competition among shipping companies [41] - The profit contraction of other routes may spread to the European route, exacerbating its existing excess pressure [44][45] 3.5. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - As of mid - September, the average price of large containers on the European route has fallen below the low point of the first half of the year. Ship companies may take suspension measures, but the actual scale of suspension is expected to be limited, and it is difficult for the freight rate to stabilize and rebound [48] - During the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, the freight rate may have a short - term rebound, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. After the short - term rebound, the freight rate is expected to fall back to near the cost line [48] - The 10 - 12 contract spread exceeds 400 points, and the long - position allocation value of the 12 - contract above 1500 points is limited. If the spot price continues to fall, there may be an opportunity to go long on the 12 - contract at a low level [49] - It is recommended to view the 12 - 02 spread trend with an oscillatory mindset and pay attention to short - term positive arbitrage opportunities when the spread converges to par or discount [49]