人民财讯12月26日电，12月26日，德路里(Drewry)世界集装箱运价指数(WCI)本周(截至12月25日)上涨 1%，达到2213美元/FEU，实现"四连涨"。其中，亚欧航线即期运价已连续四周保持上涨态势。过去三 年数据显示，每年12月货量该航线均录得两位数环比增长，使得强劲的年终货量已成为"新常态"。目 前，由于船公司已开始接收2026年2月农历新年之前的早期订舱，德路里预计下周运价有望继续小幅上 行。 ...

2025年12月25日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) MSK商船首次通行红海，盘面冲高回落下，投资者需注意或将反转信号，已建议落袋后短期建议观望为主。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 12月22日 | 12月19日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1589.20点，较上期上涨5.2% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1094.77点，较上期上涨3.20% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）962.10点，较上期上涨4.1% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（欧洲航线）1067.29点，较上期上涨0.30% | | 12月19日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1228.34点，较上期上涨19.28% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1552.92点，较上期上涨46.46点 | 12月19日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1533USD/TEU，较上期下跌0.33% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1124.73点，较上期上涨0.6% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

消息面 Week50: MSK开舱下跌至2200美金定调，其余船司陆续跟跌，OA2300-2400，PA1900-2100。目前中枢2200美金，折盘1550点, ，COSCO线下2400美金（+200美金）。 Week51: MSK开舱2400 (+200美金) MSK发布1月份涨价函，欧线20/40英尺集装箱运费分别提涨至2275/3500美金。 state w | | | | | A BILL A BELLER | 11 11 11 14 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/9 | | | 合约 EC2512 | | 昨日收盘价 1669.8 | 涨跌 0.68% | 基差 -160.7 | 昨日成交量 330 | | 昨日持仓量 3304 | 持合变动 -106 | | | EC2602 | | 1615.3 | 0.34% | -106.2 | 19294 | | 31466 | -749 | | | EC2604 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is continuously speculating on the implementation expectations of price increases in the second half of December and January, and the EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation [5]. - It is expected that the trading logics of the December and February contracts will diverge. The December contract follows the price in the second half of December, while the February contract focuses on the expected price increase and its implementation in January. The spread between the two contracts is uncertain, and the improvement in cargo volume needs to be tracked [6]. - The second - stage peace talks are expected to be tortuous. It is difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, but the probability of resumption after the Spring Festival may gradually increase [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Freight Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On December 2, EC2512 closed at 1,633.6 points, down 0.19% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line on November 28 was reported at $1,404/TEU, up 2.7% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line reported after Monday's market close was 1,483.65 points, down 9.5% month - on - month, slightly lower than market expectations [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Spot Market**: MSK released a quote of $2,400 for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in week 51, up $200 from last week. Some shipping companies have announced price increases for the second half of December, with online quotes ranging from $2,800 to $3,500 [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The demand for shipping from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in December is 283,200 TEU, and the weekly average capacities in January and February 2026 are 298,800 TEU and 280,500 TEU respectively [6]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: The second - stage peace talks are expected to be difficult, and it is hard to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival. The number of return ships passing through the Suez Canal is expected to gradually increase, and the probability of resumption after the Spring Festival may rise [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Single - side Trading**: Hold long positions in EC2602 and pay attention to the rhythm of shipping companies' price increases and cargo volume improvement [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider partial profit - taking on the 2 - 4 positive spread [8]. 3.1.2 Industry News - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in November was 48.2, lower than the market expectation of 49, and it has been in the contraction range for nine consecutive months [10]. - HMM, South Korea's largest liner company, signed a shipbuilding order worth approximately $1.445 billion to build 8 dual - fuel container ships of 13,400 TEU, which are expected to be delivered in the first half of 2029 [10]. 3.2 Related Attachments - The report includes multiple figures showing the trends of various shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS European Line Index, SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [12][15][17].

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | 第二部分 | 行情复盘 3 | | | 一、主流船司长约季宣涨落地不及预期，EC 盘面冲高回落后维持低位震荡 | | | 3 | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 5 | | | 一、旺季来临揽货情况差异较大，市场对未来运价高度仍存在分歧 5 | | 二、10 | 月集装箱新船交付量延续跌势，关注后续船期排班调配情况 10 | | | 三、美国关税冲击持续影响全球贸易，需求疲软致使 10 月出口下滑 20 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 26 | | 免责声明 | 27 | 航运板块研发报告 集运指数（欧线）月报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 春节前旺季宣涨预期仍在，关注船司复航红海动作 运价方面，船司当前长约货有所改善，12 月传统旺季来临，船司报价逐渐 出炉，但因 12 月上半月即期市场揽货情况一般，多数船司选择调降 12 月上半 月报价，前期宣涨落地情况不及预期。整体来看，12 月运价走势较为波折，前 期宣涨目标多在 3100-3200 ...

2025年11月27日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) 中美关税问题仍以延期的形式作为短期的解决方案,运价走势的 逻辑还是回归传统季节性和红海何时复航的问题上,目前现货价 格小幅下降。综上述,我们认为,关税问题已经呈现边际化效 应,目前核心还是现货运价的走向,主力合约已经出现季节性反 弹,建议轻仓参与或观望。 11月26日主力合约2602收盘1387.4,跌幅为7.62%,成交量 3.81万手,持仓量4.41万手,较上日减手4222手。 悲观情绪持续,现货运价走低,市场大幅跳水,成交放量,多空 博弈激烈,盘面低位震荡。之后需对关税政策、中东局势以及现 货运价情况关注。 | 短期策略：主力合约回撤，远月合约较强，风险偏好者已建议 | | --- | | EC2602合约1550-1600区间轻仓试多,盘面大幅跳水,不建议继续 | | 补仓,不建议扛单,设置好止损。 | | 套利策略:国际局势动荡背景下,各合约仍保持季节性逻辑,波动 | | 较大,建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 | | 长期策略:各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续 | | 方向 | | 跌涨停板:2508-2606合约调整为18%。 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - MSK announced a price increase for late - October freight rates, causing the market to rise significantly. However, it is not recommended to add more positions, and stop - loss should be set [2]. - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [5]. - In the short - term, the main contract remains weak, and far - month contracts are stronger. It is recommended to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Do not hold positions stubbornly and set stop - losses. For the long - term, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the pull - back to stabilize before making further judgments [5]. 3. Content Summaries 3.1 Freight Indexes - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% [3]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 673.61 points, down 7.65%; for the US - West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% [3]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8%; for the US - West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% [3]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1537.28 points, down 6.2%; for the US - West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% [3]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 50.5, the service PMI preliminary value was 50.7, and the composite PMI preliminary value rose to 51.1, higher than expected [3]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points [4]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, and the service PMI preliminary value was 55.4 [4]. 3.3 Market and Strategy - On September 25, the main contract 2510 closed at 1173.0, up 3.99%, with a trading volume of 3.89 million lots and an open interest of 3.55 million lots, a decrease of 5414 lots from the previous day [5]. - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and far - month contracts are strong. Stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. Pay attention to the market trend, do not hold positions stubbornly, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international instability, each contract maintains seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or participate lightly [5]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise, and wait for the pull - back to stabilize before making further judgments [5]. 3.4 Policy and Geopolitical Events - The Sino - US tariff issue continues to be postponed, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has gradually evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries [5]. - The Houthi armed forces launched a drone attack on Israel on September 24, causing at least 22 people to be injured [6]. - The Ministry of Transport, the National Railway Administration, and China National Railway Group Co., Ltd. issued an action plan to promote the in - depth integration of container rail - water intermodal transportation from 2025 - 2027, aiming for an average annual growth of about 15% in container rail - water intermodal transportation volume by 2027 [6].

Freight Rates and Market Sentiment - Spot freight rates remain low, with a pessimistic market sentiment leading to continued declines, suggesting no further accumulation and the importance of setting stop-loss orders[1] - Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFIS) for European routes decreased by 8.1% to 1440.24 points, while the index for US West Coast routes increased by 37.7% to 1349.84 points[2] - The overall Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped by 199.90 points to 1198.21 points, reflecting an 8.8% decrease in rates for European routes and a 31.0% decrease for US West Coast routes[2] Economic Indicators - Eurozone manufacturing PMI improved to 50.5, above the expected 49.5, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity[2] - The US manufacturing PMI reached a 39-month high of 53.3, significantly above the forecast of 49.5, suggesting robust manufacturing growth[2] Trade and Tariff Developments - Ongoing delays in US-China tariff negotiations have led to a marginalization of tariff issues, with current focus shifting to spot freight rates[3] - The main contract closed at 1050.5, reflecting a 6.00% decline, with trading volume at 32,100 contracts and an increase in open interest by 542 contracts[3] Strategic Recommendations - Short-term strategy suggests maintaining a weak position in main contracts while waiting for bottoming opportunities, advising against holding positions without stop-loss measures[4] - Long-term strategy recommends taking profits on high positions and waiting for stabilization before making further directional judgments[4] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and volatile oil prices are contributing to market instability, necessitating close monitoring of these factors[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the European route is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The growth rate of demand on the European route is expected to slow down from the second half of 2025 due to factors such as weak European exports, inventory cycle changes, and a high trade base [2][13][14] - The over - supply pressure on the European route persists, although the new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down in the fourth quarter. Market competition is intensifying, and the spill - over of other routes' pressure may exacerbate the situation [3][41] - The freight rate on the European route may have a short - term rebound during the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. There are investment opportunities in the 12 - contract under certain conditions [4][48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Slowdown in European Route Demand Growth - The growth momentum of US - EU trade has weakened in the short term due to a higher - than - expected tariff level in the trade agreement and the overdraft of forward demand caused by early restocking in the US [13] - The US may have entered the active destocking phase, and given the strong linkage of the inventory cycle between the US and Europe, the restocking momentum in Europe is weakening, which may suppress European import demand [13] - Despite the slowdown in demand growth, Asia - Europe trade will maintain a high base due to capacity substitution. The price gap between China and Europe is difficult to narrow quickly, and the trade deficit continues to expand [13][14] 3.2. Impact of the Delayed Spring Festival on the Peak - Season Cargo Volume Rhythm - Affected by the National Day holiday, the Asia - Europe trade demand in October is expected to decline significantly month - on - month. The demand is expected to gradually recover in November and enter the traditional peak season in December [29] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 will relieve the freight pressure during the peak season, and the monthly freight volume distribution from December to February next year will be more balanced [29] 3.3. Slower New Ship Delivery and Weaker Impact on the European Route - The pressure of capacity growth on the European route is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down, and the capacity growth rate of large - scale container ships has decreased [33] - The current European route capacity is relatively saturated. New ships to be delivered in the fourth quarter are likely to be used for other routes or replacement of existing ships, with limited additional capacity supply for the European route [33][35] 3.4. Persistent Excess Pressure and Vigilance against Marginal Disturbances - The supply ceiling on the European route has increased, and the capacity gap has narrowed, resulting in an oversupply situation. The upper - limit capacity is 8% - 13% higher than the critical value, suppressing the market [41] - The market structure on the European route has changed from oligopoly to oligopolistic competition, intensifying price - cutting competition among shipping companies [41] - The profit contraction of other routes may spread to the European route, exacerbating its existing excess pressure [44][45] 3.5. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - As of mid - September, the average price of large containers on the European route has fallen below the low point of the first half of the year. Ship companies may take suspension measures, but the actual scale of suspension is expected to be limited, and it is difficult for the freight rate to stabilize and rebound [48] - During the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, the freight rate may have a short - term rebound, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. After the short - term rebound, the freight rate is expected to fall back to near the cost line [48] - The 10 - 12 contract spread exceeds 400 points, and the long - position allocation value of the 12 - contract above 1500 points is limited. If the spot price continues to fall, there may be an opportunity to go long on the 12 - contract at a low level [49] - It is recommended to view the 12 - 02 spread trend with an oscillatory mindset and pay attention to short - term positive arbitrage opportunities when the spread converges to par or discount [49]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict and tariff fluctuations make the game difficult, suggesting light - participation or waiting and seeing [4]. - The overall freight rate is still declining, and the market is strongly volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 PMI Data - The eurozone's August manufacturing PMI flash was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), services PMI flash was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), and composite PMI flash rose to 51.1, the highest since May 2024 [2]. - The US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the services PMI flash was 55.4; the Markit manufacturing PMI flash was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2]. 3.3 Trade and Policy - Sino - US tariffs continue to be extended, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly decreased [4]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try long positions lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see or try lightly with small positions [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4]. 3.5 Market Conditions - On September 1, the main contract 2510 closed at 1291.4, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 52,300 lots, down 989 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 3.6 Geopolitical Events - On August 31, the Israeli Defense Minister announced that the Israeli army killed the spokesman of the Hamas Qassam Brigades in the Gaza Strip, but Hamas has not confirmed this news. The Israeli army has been expanding military operations against Hamas [5]. - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces launched a missile at an Israeli oil tanker in the northern Red Sea [5].