赶在诺贝尔和平奖得主宣布前一天，特朗普于当地时间10月8日迫不及待地表示，以色列、哈马斯双方 已就加沙停火第一阶段协议达成一致，"各方都将获得公平对待！"他在社交媒体上强调。 然而，国际舆论仍对协议前景持审慎态度，不但其内容仍存在诸多关键细节空白，参与斡旋的土耳其、 卡塔尔、埃及也被认为多站在美国、以色列一方。 以哈双方能在短短数天内完整落实协议内容吗？哈马斯未来的去向如何？从第一阶段停火过渡至第二阶 段又取决于哪些因素？加沙民众日思夜盼的和平能否到来？观察者网对话上海外国语大学中东研究所教 授、中国中东学会副会长刘中民，带来相关解读。 观察者网：美国总统特朗普当地时间8日在社交媒体上宣布以色列、哈马斯达成加沙停火协议。这一次 的协议内容相较以往的协议有何不同？ 刘中民：以色列同哈马斯之间达成了被称为第一阶段的协议，主要着眼于几个相对容易解决的问题，比 如哈马斯释放人质、以色列停火撤军与开放人道主义援助通道。尽管如此，放在整个加沙战争的背景 下，这些问题过去处理起来也十分艰难：在2023年11月和今年1月，以色列曾与哈马斯两次达成停火协 议，释放了部分人质。 相比前两次，这一次的协议是迈进了一大步，哈马斯方面 ...

AXIOS：关于特朗普结束加沙战争的计划，美国和以色列非常接近达成协议。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):根据白宫日程，特朗普将于美东时间周一上午10:15（北京时间22:15）签署行政命令，并计划于周一上午11:35（北京时间23:35）与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会面，下午15:00（北京时间周二凌晨3:00）会见美国国会两院两党领导人。 https://t.co/bddNrJRVQN ...

Group 1 - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is set to meet with US President Trump to discuss a new plan aimed at ending the ongoing Gaza conflict, which has lasted nearly two years [2] - The proposed plan includes a permanent ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas, and the deployment of an international stabilization force in Gaza [2] - Netanyahu has expressed that while efforts are being made, the plan is not finalized and emphasizes Israel's conditions for ending the conflict, including the release of 48 hostages and disarmament of Hamas [2][3] Group 2 - Israeli officials acknowledge awareness of the US-supported Gaza plan but assert that any measures must receive Israel's consent, indicating a level of skepticism regarding the plan's alignment with Israeli interests [3] - There are indications of internal confusion within the Israeli delegation in the US, suggesting that multiple Arab governments may have influenced Trump to support a plan contrary to Israel's position [3] - Hamas has stated that it has not received any new proposals from international mediators, and negotiations for a ceasefire in exchange for hostages have stalled following Israeli attacks on Hamas leadership [3]

Group 1 - French President Macron stated that if US President Trump genuinely wants to win the Nobel Peace Prize, he should work towards ending the war in Gaza [1] - Macron emphasized that the US has the capability to influence the situation more than other countries, as it provides the weapons and equipment used in the conflict [1] - Trump, during his speech at the UN General Assembly, opposed Western allies' recognition of Palestine and called for an immediate halt to the war in Gaza [1] Group 2 - Macron noted that Trump's desire for peace and his claim of resolving seven conflicts highlight his interest in the Nobel Peace Prize, which can only be achieved by stopping the current conflict [1] - Macron called for pressure to be applied on the Israeli government to cease hostilities in Gaza [1]

Group 1 - The meeting between President Trump and Arab leaders aims to discuss ways to end the Gaza conflict, with invitations sent to leaders from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Turkey [1] - The meeting is scheduled for September 29, just before Trump's reception of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, amidst increasing recognition of Palestine by Western countries [1] - The U.S. remains isolated in its support for Israel, despite growing international condemnation of Israeli actions in the region [1] Group 2 - The White House seeks involvement from Arab and Muslim nations in post-war plans for Gaza, potentially including the deployment of troops to replace Israeli forces [2] - Arab leaders are expected to pressure Trump to urge Netanyahu to end the conflict in Gaza and avoid annexing parts of the West Bank [2] - Concerns from Gulf states regarding Israel's attack on Hamas leaders in Qatar will be a key topic, with leaders seeking assurances from the Trump administration to prevent future incidents [2]

美国总统特朗普对以色列总理内塔尼亚胡深感不满，但问题在于，他的愤怒是否足以促使其采取行动。 近几周，特朗普多次告知助手，内塔尼亚胡更倾向于用军事力量迫使哈马斯投降，而非采用他青睐 的"谈判停火"方案。上周，以色列袭击了位于卡塔尔的哈马斯谈判人员，这一行动危及脆弱的和平谈 判，特朗普的不满彻底爆发。 据知情的官员透露，特朗普在谈及内塔尼亚胡时表示："他在耍我。"当时，他正与包括国务卿马可·鲁 比奥（Marco Rubio）在内的高级助手商议，如何回应这一"肆无忌惮的袭击"。 特朗普对内塔尼亚胡时而激烈的态度，令华盛顿感到困惑：向来喜欢在关系中占据主导地位的特朗普， 为何愿意让内塔尼亚胡一再公然违背自己的意愿？ "这有点令人困惑，且违背常理。"沙洛姆·利普纳（Shalom Lipner）表示。他曾在25年间连续为七任以 色列总理效力，现任华盛顿智库"大西洋理事会"研究员。 利普纳指出："内塔尼亚胡的举动延长了加沙战争，给特朗普与该地区其他美国盟友的关系制造了麻 烦，也让《亚伯拉罕协议》的扩容变得异常困难。"《亚伯拉罕协议》指以色列与部分阿拉伯国家实现 关系正常化的协议。 特朗普曾多次用尖锐言辞评价内塔尼亚胡，例如 ...

Group 1 - The Israeli Defense Minister announced the killing of Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida during an airstrike in Gaza City, coinciding with preparations for a full-scale military offensive against Hamas [1] - Israel has mobilized 80,000 reservists and is expected to deploy them in the coming days, targeting remaining Hamas leadership believed to be hiding in Gaza City [1][2] - The Israeli military claims that Abu Obeida was a key figure in Hamas's media operations, which have been used for psychological warfare against Israel [2] Group 2 - The humanitarian situation in Gaza is deteriorating, with reports of 88 deaths in the last 24 hours, and the Israeli military has declared Gaza City a "dangerous war zone," halting ceasefires in the area [2][3] - The United Nations and humanitarian organizations have expressed concerns about the feasibility of large-scale evacuations from Gaza City, citing inadequate living conditions for displaced populations [3] - A U.S. plan for post-war reconstruction in Gaza has emerged, proposing to manage the region for at least ten years and relocate its population, with financial incentives for those who leave [4][5] Group 3 - Discussions are ongoing regarding the potential annexation of the West Bank by Israel, in response to European countries recognizing Palestinian statehood, which could lead to widespread condemnation [6] - The Israeli government is considering legislative measures regarding the annexation, although the timeline and specifics remain unclear [6] - The U.S. has indicated it will not allow Palestinian Authority President Abbas to attend the upcoming UN meeting, where several allies are expected to recognize Palestinian statehood [7]

Group 1 - Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has lost confidence in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's ability to achieve a "decisive victory" in Gaza, criticizing him for potentially agreeing to a "ceasefire for hostages" deal with Hamas [1][2] - Netanyahu's security cabinet has ordered the military to prepare for a takeover of Gaza City, which may involve the forced evacuation of civilians, but the expanded military offensive could be delayed until early October to allow for necessary preparations [2][4] - Smotrich and his far-right allies support a more aggressive plan to fully reoccupy Gaza and facilitate the "voluntary immigration" of its 2 million residents to unspecified foreign locations [2][3] Group 2 - The Israeli military leadership opposes Netanyahu's plans, fearing that the already exhausted military could be overwhelmed and that it may jeopardize the lives of 50 Israeli hostages held by Hamas [4] - Opposition leaders warn that expanding the war could damage Israel's international standing and increase the financial burden on Israeli taxpayers, with potential cuts to social welfare and education [5] - Nine Western countries and the EU have issued a joint statement rejecting the security cabinet's decision, warning it could exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and endanger Israeli hostages [5]

Group 1 - The core objective of Israel's military actions is to defeat Hamas in Gaza and create conditions for the return of hostages [3] - Israel's Defense Minister Katz emphasizes the necessity of taking all required actions to achieve these goals [3] - To ensure the safety of Israeli communities, the Israel Defense Forces must maintain a permanent presence around Gaza to prevent attacks and weapon smuggling [3]

Group 1 - Over 600 former Israeli security officials, including ex-Mossad chief Tamir Pardo and ex-IDF general Matan Vilnai, urged President Trump to pressure Prime Minister Netanyahu to end the Gaza war [1][3] - The officials stated that the Israeli military has achieved its two primary objectives of destroying Hamas's military structure and governance, and emphasized that the third goal of rescuing hostages must be accomplished through negotiations [3][5] - They argued that Hamas no longer poses a strategic threat to Israel, and that the remaining Hamas leaders can be dealt with later, but the rescue of hostages cannot be delayed [5] Group 2 - The former officials highlighted Trump's credibility among the Israeli public and called for him to guide Netanyahu's government to end the war and alleviate suffering [5] - Despite previous successes in influencing U.S. policy, there is uncertainty regarding Trump's current stance on a ceasefire and whether these former officials can sway his decision [5] - Netanyahu expressed his determination to "eliminate" Hamas, citing Hamas's refusal to agree to a ceasefire in exchange for hostages [6]