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中国中车(601766):2025 半年度业绩预告点评:业绩高增,预计25H1归母净利润同比+60%-80%
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-13 15:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, with a projected growth of 60%-80%, amounting to between 6.722 billion and 7.562 billion yuan [2]. - The anticipated growth in net profit is primarily attributed to the concentrated release of high-level maintenance orders for train sets and the delayed delivery of train procurement orders from the end of 2024 [2]. - The recovery of fixed asset investment in railways is expected to drive demand for train sets, with a stable annual planning mileage for high-speed railways in China around 2,500 km [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of 273.163 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.84% [5]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 13.808 billion yuan, representing an increase of 11.47% compared to the previous year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.48 yuan in 2025, with a dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.99 times [5]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, the National Railway Group publicly tendered for 245 sets of 350 km/h train sets, marking a 49% increase year-on-year [4]. - The demand for high-level maintenance of train sets is also expected to rise, with significant new orders signed in 2024 [4]. - The report highlights that the company, as the only domestic manufacturer of complete train sets, is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in railway fixed asset investment [5].