今日（7月25日），化工板块继续拉升！反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）开盘后震荡走 高，盘中场内价格最高涨0.9%，后略有回落，截至发稿，涨0.3%。 成份股方面，纯碱、农药、石化等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至发稿，博源化工飙涨超6%，扬农化工 大涨超5%，齐翔腾达涨超3%，桐昆股份、新凤鸣、华峰化学等多股跟涨超2%。 | 分野 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 夏多 | | | | | | | F9 型车型后 图出 九星 面达 工具 份 (3) > | | 42 TETF 1 | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 516020(RCIETF) 10:31 @ 0.666 图数 0.00280.30% /267 0.667 成交量 1170 /OPV 0.6657 | 0.670 | | | | | | | 2025/07/25 | 0.666 | | =0.002 +0.301 | | 551 CNF 10:31:41 文明申 | 0. ...

注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 东海证券指出，近期海外TDI产能持续收缩，受能源成本及环保政策影响，欧洲、日本等地企业相 继关停装置，中国凭借产业链竞争优势出口份额大幅提升，2025年5月出口量创单月历史新高，同比飙 升98.45%。东南亚需求扩张，年增速维持在6-8%，成为中国核心出口市场。短期来看，科思创德国工 厂突发事故进一步加剧供应紧张，TDI价格或继续上行；长期而言，中国化工企业在成本、技术及交货 周期上的竞争力难以替代，有望持续扩大全球市场份额并重塑产业格局。 化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数由中证指数有限公司编制，从 沪深市场中选取涉及化学原料、化学制品等细分领域的代表性上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映中国 化工产业各子行业的整体市场表现和 ...

Q&A 摘要 全球磷肥市场及磷化工近况更新 20250720 从 2021 年 10 月开始执行磷肥出口法检政策以来，22 年至 25 年的具体时间 节点和配额情况如何？ 2021 年 10 月，国内磷肥市场开始执行法检政策，以保障冬季储备和供应安全。 最初的法检周期为 33 到 45 天，相较于之前的 7 个工作日大幅延长。到 2022 年 6 月，由于俄乌冲突导致国际原料价格上涨，法检周期进一步延长至 45 到 60 天。同年 7 月下旬，正式开始实施配额制度，为 22 年下半年的出口配额做 准备。 在 2023 年 3 月底至 4 月初，全年法检制度开始实施，从当时起至次年 的 3 月底或 4 月初为一个完整周期。24 年的情况类似，也是从 3 月底至次年的 3 月底或 4 月初进行全年法检和配额管理。然而，到 2025 年，这一政策变得 更加精细化。5 月 15 日左右出台了新的配额制度，将全年分为两个阶段：第一 阶段从 5 月至 8 月，第二阶段从 9 月至 12 月。这种调整旨在更精准地平衡国 内外需求，同时满足创汇要求。 磷肥需求端增长，标准化农田增加提升化肥需求，预计每年增量 3%- 5%。国 ...

今日（7月18日），化工板块开盘后持续上攻，反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）震荡拉 升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.63%。 成份股方面，截至发稿，聚氨酯龙头万华化学飙涨7%，华峰化学大涨超4%，新凤鸣、华鲁恒升、圣泉 集团等涨超3%，盐湖股份、藏格矿业、扬农化工等多股涨超2%。 | | | 分制 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | | | | | | F9 盘前盘玩 盘加 九粒 测试 工具 @ 0 > | | RIETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.62 | | | | | 516020(K.I.ETF) 10:24 价 0.624 图数 0.000(1.46%) 100 0.622 版交量 0 IOPV 0.6247 | | | 2025/07/18 | | 0.624 | | +0,009 +1,469 | | 0.620 | | 620 NASUN | | | | | | | 0.8596 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Basic Chemicals and Oil & Gas sectors [5]. Core Insights - The overall price spread in the industry is weak, with the CCPI-oil price spread at approximately 558, below the 30% percentile since 2012, indicating a potential turning point in the industry as supply and demand begin to recover [1][14]. - Capital expenditure growth in the chemical raw materials and products industry has significantly declined, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.4% from January to May 2025, suggesting a self-adjustment phase in the supply side [2][31]. - The domestic PMI for June 2025 is reported at 49.7, indicating a slight recovery in demand, although uncertainties remain regarding tariff policies post-July 9 [2][16]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The industry capital expenditure growth has dropped to a low level, indicating a potential turning point for supply-side adjustments, with expectations for a recovery starting in the second half of 2025 [2][31]. - The report highlights that the competitive intensity has increased, leading to a significant decline in profitability across most sub-sectors since the second half of 2022 [2][31]. Demand Side - The report notes a recovery in domestic PMI, but uncertainties regarding tariff policies may disrupt future export orders [2][16]. - The demand for chemical products is expected to improve in the medium to long term, supported by domestic economic recovery and growth in demand from regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America [2][16]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the second half of 2025 may see an upward turning point, with a focus on resilient demand and improved supply dynamics [34]. - Specific recommendations include: - Oil & Gas: Favorable long-term prospects for high-dividend companies like China Petroleum [34]. - Bulk Chemicals: Attention on refrigerants and isocyanates, with recommendations for companies like Juhua Co., Luxi Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical [34]. - Downstream Products: Recommendations for companies like Meihua Biological Technology and Xinghuo Technology, anticipating recovery in downstream demand [34]. - Export-driven chemical products: Companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire are highlighted for their competitive advantages in exports [34]. - High-dividend assets: Companies like Hengli Petrochemical are recommended for their potential to increase dividend payouts [34].

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a collective rebound on July 1, with Hongbaoli leading the surge by hitting the daily limit up [1] - Other stocks such as Shandong Heda, Changqing Technology, and Baihehua also reached the daily limit up, indicating strong market interest in the sector [1] - Hongbaoli's trading volume reached 240 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 3.57%, highlighting its active trading status [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry is a fundamental sector of the national economy, with products widely used in construction, automotive, and electronics [2] - The performance of the chemical sector is closely linked to macroeconomic trends, reflecting the industry's sensitivity to economic conditions [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 Indian potash fertilizer contract price has been set at $349 per ton, which is expected to boost the potash fertilizer market [4][20] - The domestic potassium chloride market is experiencing limited supply and tight circulation, with domestic potassium chloride production reduced and inventory at low levels [21][22] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.73% this week [15] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) reported 4033 points, down 1.08% from last week [17] Key Product Tracking - The price difference for polyester filament POY has expanded, while the price of chlorantraniliprole 97% continues to rise [29] - The domestic potassium chloride market is characterized by limited supply and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [21][22] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., and Yaqi International; beneficiary stocks include Cangge Mining and Dongfang Iron Tower [27] - Other recommended stocks span various sectors including chemical leaders and fluorine chemicals [5]

证券研究报告 基础材料/能源 制造业重估：化工品需求引擎的切换 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 03 日│中国内地 深度研究 外需成为中国化工品主要拉动引擎，国内全球竞争优势化工企业迎来重估 我国化工品除直接出口外，亦伴随下游制品大量出口，据我们测算，52 个 代表性品种 20-24 年总外需敞口高于 40%，且近年保持增长态势。我们认 为，未来中国化工品具备增量需求空间，尤其人口增速更快的亚非拉国家（地 区）人均消费量提升空间显著。而中国化工品依托庞大且齐全的制造业，形 成的规模化、一体化优势，结合能源、运输等基础设施配套及专业化劳动力 等因素，在长期仍将成为全球供给主导力量。具备全球优势的化工企业在行 业景气触底后将迎来重估，推荐新和成/梅花生物/恒力石化/巨化股份/卫星化 学/万华化学/华鲁恒升/华峰化学/鲁西化工/龙佰集团/合盛硅业/中国石化。 化工品出口敞口高且保持增长，2020 年以来国内供应稳定性进一步凸显 2022 年中国化工销售/出口贸易额占全球 44%/10.2%，较 12 年提升 13/4.4pct。我们测算 20-24 年 52 个代表性品种直接出口占比多数介于 0%~20%，偏中下游 ...