1月28日，化工龙头ETF（516220）收涨超2.5%，连续10日净流入超2亿元，"反内卷"有望重估中国 化工行业。 （责任编辑：刘畅 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 国海证券指出，展望2026年，中国化工行业推行反内卷，化工有望迎来景气上行周期。反内卷有望 重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望使全球化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓。中国化工行业具有充沛的经营活 动现金流量净额，一旦扩张放缓，潜在股息率将大幅提升，有望实现从吞金兽到摇钱树的 ...

2026年全年整体走势会比较乐观。为什么会得出这样的判断呢？这和我们常说的股市表现由"四碗面"构 成有关，基本面是其中之一，但股市表现又不完全由基本面决定。基本面跟经济整体的强弱有关系，经 济形势向好，各行业往往会整体受益。 不过，股市表现也不完全由基本面决定。比如开年的AI应用相关板块，像软件ETF（515230）以及计算 机ETF（512720）阶段性涨幅显著，如果只看基本面，这类ETF可能就不会涨的那么好，因为软件行业 的基本面还没有出现大幅改善。所以说，股市除了受基本面影响，还会受到资金面、情绪面、政策面的 综合推动。今年，我们认为基本面不会有失速风险，且整体呈现向好态势。我国GDP总量已突破140万 亿，这是一项非常大的成就。资金面也相对乐观，这一点我们稍后可以详细和大家聊聊。 情绪面方面，虽然最近稍微有点降温，但开年以来各板块表现非常的异彩纷呈，这说明大家的做多情绪 还是很高涨的·。政策层面的支持也在悉心呵护整体经济与市场走势。从这些方面来看，2026年整体走 势仍相对乐观。目前，可能因为短期冲太猛了，部分资金出现获利回吐或了结的情况，市场迎来短暂降 温。刚才主持人提到大盘曾向4200点发起冲击， ...

（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从市场中选取涉及精细化工、 新材料等特定化学工业领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映细分化工领域相关上市公司证券的整 体表现。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 天风证券指出，基础化工行业正经历"供需逆转、价值重估、产业重构"的深刻变化。2025年政策与 资本开支拐点已现，"反内卷"的提出为后续行业盈利改善与长期健康发展提供了预期。供需 ...

化工龙头ETF（516220）跟踪的是细分化工指数（000813），该指数从沪深市场中选取涉及化学原 料、化肥与农药、涂料油墨颜料等细分领域的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映化工行业特定子领域 相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 天风证券指出，氨纶行业供应快速增长导致竞争加剧，使得尾部及落后产能面临退出预期，预计有 部分产能将遭淘汰出清。当前行业集中扩产临近尾声，未来新增产能集中于头部企业，行业供给持续向 具备竞争优势的头部集中，供给格局持续优化。与此同时，下游需求有望逐步回暖，2026年伴随中美贸 易关系阶段性缓和，叠加国内外纺服有望开启新一轮补库周期，氨纶消费量增速有望同比提高。产品价 格与企业盈利有望实现同比修复。 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical sector is expected to experience a recovery in its business cycle, with current chemical prices at historical lows and a decline in the growth rate of ongoing projects [3] Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with chemical prices at historical lows and a negative year-on-year growth rate in ongoing projects [3] - The implementation of anti-competition policies in specific segments such as PTA, polyester filament, and organic silicon is optimizing the supply structure through self-discipline and policy constraints [3] - The exit of outdated production capacity is accelerating, particularly in high-cost sectors like large-scale refining, spandex, and chlor-alkali [3] Group 2: Demand Drivers - The recovery in downstream industries such as automotive, textiles, and home appliances, driven by policy support, is expected to boost demand for chemical products [3] - Emerging industries like semiconductors and energy storage are significantly increasing the demand for new chemical materials [3] - Key raw materials for the semiconductor industry, including photoresists, electronic specialty gases, and polishing materials, are seeing accelerated domestic substitution [3] - Breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology are increasing the demand for new chemical materials like specialty carbon black [3] - The development of the photovoltaic and wind power industries is driving the recovery in demand for chemical products such as silicon materials, photovoltaic adhesive films (EVA/POE), and carbon fiber [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Investors interested in the chemical sector may consider focusing on the New Materials 50 ETF (159761) and the Chemical Leader ETF (516220) as potential investment opportunities [3]

1月6日化工板块表现也相对较高，化工龙头ETF（516220）上涨3.80%。 此前，陕西发改委发布提高高耗能产品电价的通知(征求意见稿)，对铁合金、电石、烧碱、水泥、 钢铁、黄磷、锌冶炼7个行业限制类产能电价每千瓦时加价0.1元，淘汰类产能电价每千瓦时加价0.3元。 2026年5月底前完成技术改造或者淘汰落后产能。自2026年7月1日起收取加价电费，2026年7月后完成技 术改造或淘汰落后产能的企业，可按照上述程序申请退出执行差别电价的企业清单。假设上述通知落 地，高能耗行业中高成本装置或将逐步退出，利好具备自备电厂的高耗能企业。 根据开源证券，十五五期间为推进碳达峰关键阶段，目前已有措施陆续推进能耗控制： 1、年耗煤量超过50万吨标煤的项目集中在发改委审批； 2、健全碳交易市场，2025年扩围电解铝、水泥、玻璃、钢铁四个行业，剩余石化、化工、造纸、 航空计划2027年基本完成纳入； 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 以上观点仅供参考，不构成投资建议或承诺。如需购买相关基金产品，请您关注投资者适当性管理 相关规定、提前做好风险测评，并根据您自身的风险承受能力购买 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues its "opening red" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high. All three major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index gaining 1.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.75% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 260.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. The market saw over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit for two consecutive days, with high interest in sectors such as intelligent driving, commercial aerospace, and brain-computer interfaces [1] Intelligent Driving Sector - The intelligent driving concept was active today, with the Intelligent Automobile ETF rising by 4.16%. The industry is expected to see breakthroughs due to technological advancements and the implementation of policies and regulations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has conditionally approved L3 product applications from two car manufacturers, marking a new phase of commercialization for intelligent driving in China [2] - At the CES 2026 conference, NVIDIA's CEO announced new AI inference technology for intelligent driving and a partnership with Mercedes to produce autonomous vehicles. Companies like Qianli Zhijia and Geely also launched new assisted driving brands at CES, indicating significant advancements in the sector [2] Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is expected to see improvements in supply-demand dynamics as supply-side reforms deepen and carbon peak initiatives progress. The Shaanxi Development and Reform Commission has proposed increasing electricity prices for high-energy-consuming products, which could raise costs for industries like chlor-alkali and calcium carbide, potentially leading to the exit of high-cost facilities [3] - The current "14th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for advancing carbon peak goals, with measures being implemented to control energy consumption, including the elimination of preferential electricity prices for high-energy-consuming products and the phasing out of chemical facilities over 20 years old. Investors are advised to pay attention to opportunities in leading chemical ETFs [3] Gold Market - The rising tensions in South America are increasing global uncertainty, which may enhance the safe-haven appeal of gold in the short term. In the medium to long term, loose liquidity and de-dollarization are expected to support gold prices. The long-term investment value of gold is viewed positively, with recommendations for investors to consider gold fund ETFs during market pullbacks to lower costs [3] - Central banks remain significant buyers of gold, and despite substantial increases in holdings over the past three years, the amount held is still relatively low compared to historical geopolitical turning points. Surveys indicate a continued moderate increase in gold purchases by central banks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry chain is expected to experience a sector-wide market trend driven by a dual resonance of "cyclical reversal and emerging demand" in 2026, following a prolonged down cycle of approximately 3.5 years in the chemical industry [3]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The chemical industry is entering a low growth phase due to a continuous decline in capital investment and the accelerated exit of outdated overseas production capacity [3]. - The price of PX has been rising due to increased demand from overseas oil adjustments, leading to tighter PX supply [3]. - The polyester filament industry has announced self-regulated production cuts to maintain prices, which began on December 24 and will be expanded as the Spring Festival approaches [3]. Group 2: Price Trends - BOPET prices have been steadily increasing since December 22, supported by sufficient existing orders and rising raw material costs [4]. - A PTA facility in East China with a capacity of 3.6 million tons has reduced its output due to operational issues, with the recovery timeline still pending [5]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The polyester industry chain shows strong potential for reversing the trend of internal competition, with conditions such as nearing the end of capacity expansion, sustained demand growth, and high market share among leading companies [5]. - The chemical sector is expected to undergo structural optimization on the supply side, with domestic policies frequently emphasizing "anti-involution" [6]. - The chemical industry is at the bottom of its down cycle and is gradually moving towards an up cycle, with emerging demands likely to enhance chemical valuations [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that since Q3 2025, global manufacturing has shown signs of recovery, but the chemical product PPI has weakened year-on-year, with domestic real estate demand at a cyclical bottom [1] - The sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow significantly, and retail sales growth is stable and improving [1] - On the supply side, China has become a global leader in the chemical industry, while the manufacturing and chemical production capacity utilization rates in the EU are declining, with domestic conditions remaining relatively stable [1] Group 2 - In terms of capital expenditure, domestic basic chemical fixed asset investment growth has turned negative, but oversupply continues to exert short-term pressure on prices, with the inventory cycle in a passive replenishment phase [1] - The price spread of bulk chemicals remains at historical lows, while resource-based enterprises maintain relatively high ROE [1] - Market trends show that sectors with improving conditions, such as fluorine chemicals and phosphate and potassium fertilizers, are performing well, alongside price increases in smaller varieties driven by accidents [1] Group 3 - The chemical leader ETF (516220) tracks a sub-index of the chemical sector (000813), which selects listed companies involved in fertilizers, pesticides, and coatings to reflect the overall performance of the chemical industry [1] - The index constituents are representative enterprises in their respective fields, with a style allocation that balances growth and value, aiming to capture diverse investment opportunities in the chemical industry [1]

Group 1 - The polyester industry chain is strengthening overall, with PX prices rising due to high demand for toluene/xylene and gasoline, leading to tighter PX supply [1] - PTA production is declining due to unexpected shutdowns and reduced operating rates, supporting the supply side [1] - The polyester filament industry is implementing self-discipline to reduce production and maintain prices, resulting in significant inventory reduction [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to address "involution" competition by 2026, aiming to curb low-price and low-quality competition, which is expected to further optimize the supply-demand structure in the chemical industry [1] - The chemical sector ETF (516220) tracks a specialized chemical index (000813) that focuses on high-growth and innovative chemical enterprises, reflecting the overall performance of the industry [1]