Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a profound adjustment, transitioning from a state of "supply shortage" to "supply surplus," with significant implications for urban growth and policy responses [1][2]. Group 1: Market Transition - The real estate market has experienced a deep adjustment since the second half of 2021, with key indicators such as sales, prices, and investment continuing to decline for four consecutive years without signs of stabilization [2]. - This adjustment is characterized not only by cyclical fluctuations but also by structural changes, with a clear shift from "supply shortage" to "supply surplus" and increasing regional disparities [2]. - Inventory pressures are particularly acute in third and fourth-tier cities, while first-tier and select second-tier cities maintain manageable inventory levels [2]. Group 2: Structural Constraints - Population decline is expected to significantly weaken housing purchase demand, as the total population in China is projected to continue decreasing [2]. - Urbanization rates are slowing, with a projected urban population of 983 million by 2030, leading to an increase in per capita residential space [2]. - High leverage levels among residents, with a debt ratio of approximately 61% at the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan," are constraining new housing purchases [2]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations - The "15th Five-Year Plan" should focus on achieving a basic balance between supply and demand while mitigating systemic risks, employing a strategy of "moderate adjustments and differentiated policies" [4]. - Accelerating the de-inventory of commercial housing is crucial, with an estimated special bond issuance of 1-1.5 trillion yuan to support this effort [4]. - It is recommended to lower the cost of home purchases for residents, with potential adjustments to mortgage rates and down payment ratios in major cities [4]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - The real estate sector is transitioning from being a primary growth driver to focusing on its residential and urban service functions, reflecting a broader economic structural transformation [5]. - The end of the "golden era" for real estate may lead to a reconfiguration of urban development logic, favoring cities that reduce reliance on real estate and integrate into regional collaborative networks [5].