当前市场已显露疲态。南京某楼盘为求资金回笼，表面上打出"首付5万元即可入住三居室"的诱人广告，实则暗中捆绑了长达20年的装修 贷款。深圳光明区的新房项目，为了吸引买家，不惜以赠送车位的方式变相降价15%。更有甚者，郑州某郊区楼盘，房价从每平方米1.2万 元直线下滑至5000元，却依然无人问津，市场残酷可见一斑。 冰火两重天：核心区域的韧性与小城镇资产的贬值 王石再论楼市沉浮：2025年后房价阴跌尚有五年，市场洗牌在所难免 曾被誉为"预言帝"的地产界巨擘王石，其对房地产市场的洞见屡屡被验证。早在2008年，当全国房地产市场炙手可热，尤其北京燕郊房价 半年内飙升50%之时，他便高呼"拐点将至"。彼时的论调被市场笑柄，然而次年金融危机的到来，让燕郊房价从每平方米1.8万元断崖式跌 至9000元，众多炒房客血本无归，甚至有人首付打水漂，跪求开发商退房。 六年后的2018年，在房企争相夺地、竞相"拍地王"的狂热氛围中，万科内部却挂出了"活下去"的醒目横幅。这一"危言耸听"的举动曾引来 外界的非议，但事实证明，万科凭借其超前布局、提前降低杠杆，手中握有1200亿元现金，成功抵御了行业的严寒。而如今，王石再次抛 出惊人论断 ...

上半年，全国房地产开发投资同比降11.2%，住宅投资降10.4%，降幅比一季度扩大1.3-1.4个百分点。这组数据背后，是房地产"引擎"失速的连锁反 应：新开工面积连续18个月负增长（上半年同比降21.3%），土地购置面积同比降35.7%，直接导致上下游50多个行业承压——建材行业订单量同比降 18%，装修行业客单价降12%，家电零售额增速回落至5%（去年同期为15%）。 近日，戴德梁行发布《2025年二季度全国住宅市场研究》报告，用100+组数据揭开了当前楼市的真实面貌——投资下滑、成交缩水、库存高企、分化 加剧，市场仍在深度调整中"寻找新平衡"。对于购房者、投资者乃至行业从业者而言，这份报告不仅是"市场体检表"，更暗藏未来5年布局的关键信 号。 "房地产投资下滑，本质是信心危机。"戴德梁行研究院副院长张晓端分析，"房企资金链紧张是表象，深层是对未来销售回款的悲观预期。"以某头部 房企为例，其2025年上半年拿地金额仅为2021年同期的15%，且集中在核心城市核心地块，三四线城市几乎"零拿地"。这种"收缩防御"策略，导致全 国土地市场热度分化——一线城市土地溢价率维持在8%-10%，而三四线城市流拍率高达4 ...

曾经被视作炙手可热的香饽饽，人们争相抢购，恨不得倾囊所有的房产，如今却让许多拥有多套房产的家庭如坐针毡，措手不及。楼市风向的骤然转变，如 同突如其来的寒流，让这些家庭感受到了前所未有的压力。 回想当年，房价如日中天，购房者仿佛被甜蜜的汁液所吸引，即使背负沉重的债务，也依然干劲十足。然而，世事变迁，唯一不变的便是变化本身。当房价 下跌的趋势显现，心态也随之急转直下，每个月高昂的房贷不再是收益的来源，而变成了沉重的负担。闲置的房屋难以出售，出租的价格也远不如预期，再 加上每月必须缴纳的物业费，多重压力让人喘不过气。 事实上，房地产市场早已今非昔比，只涨不跌的神话已经彻底破灭。早在2018年，眼光独到的李嘉诚就曾预言，未来五年房价将面临一场大洗牌，告诫炒房 客们务必谨慎。然而，当时的市场一片火热，许多人对此不以为然。七年光阴荏苒，全国百城二手房价已连续29个月下跌，二手房挂牌量更是激增至15万套 以上，足以证明李嘉诚预言的准确性。 一组冰冷的数据揭示了残酷的现实：中国城镇家庭中，高达41.5%的家庭拥有两套及以上住房。这些家庭正无可避免地承受着三种令人难以接受的结局。 最重要的是保持积极乐观的心态。房地产市场的调整 ...

在房地产市场风云变幻的当下，是否应该出售房产成为横亘在许多人面前的一道难题。看空者预言房价下跌，捂盘惜售终将血本无归；而看多者则坚信政策 底已现，此时抛售无异于贱卖资产。一时间，众说纷纭，莫衷一是，普通民众更是深陷两难。 早在2025年的一次企业家峰会上，万达集团创始人王健林就一针见血地指出，房产买卖绝非一概而论，明智与否需视具体情况而定。 审视市场现状：深度调整期的楼市 li 19 . and and the first for the program and the production of the may be the sent of the may be the sent of the see and din n Fi FAZA HE HOLE PERFEL ies : a stransaria gs week i ........ 1 hand | Prop Ball Can Comment College El FESS 2012 . 2. 122 1 11 2 2 8 2 242 the state of the state of the state . In 1 994900 a - Cas ...

对房地产市场的未来走向，房价的涨跌，无疑是人们普遍关注的焦点。各界人士，无论是行业专家还是商业巨擘，都曾对此做出预测。然而，若论及权威 性，恐怕还需从业内人士的真知灼见。他们在房地产行业深耕多年，积累了丰富的经验，其判断往往具有前瞻性。例如，李嘉诚近年来频繁降价促销，实则 已预示了市场的变化。 然而，王石依然对房地产行业的未来充满信心，他认为市场最终会逐步回归健康的发展轨道，更有可能实现软着陆，而不是像日本那样硬着陆。同时，王石 也特别提醒，中国楼市具有政策导向性，政府的调控力度和影响力是日本无法比拟的。当前，国家正不断推出房地产利好政策，鼓励刚需购房，以减轻市场 压力。住建部已将"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌企稳"作为2025年的首要任务，预计未来政策有望继续宽松，力度也可能会加大，例如进一步优化核心城市 限制性政策，降低房贷利率、首付比例和交易税费等。 王石的观点与李嘉诚的看法基本一致，他们都建议，对于有自住需求的购房者，可以考虑在一线城市核心区域选择优质地段的房产，但务必避免高杠杆，充 分评估自身的长期还款能力。 早在2018年，王石就提出了"活下去、活得久、活得好"的发展理念，当时很多人对此不以为然，认 ...

近年来，中国房地产市场的风云变幻成为了社会各界热议的焦点，特别是回想起2017年马云对房产未来 的预言，如今看来，其影响力正逐渐显现。 想当年，楼市正处于鼎盛时期，马云的言论并未引起广泛重视。然而，时至今日，2025年下半年，楼市 格局已发生了翻天覆地的变化。在东北的鹤岗、阜新等地，房产价格已跌至谷底，几万元即可轻松购置 一套住宅。而在深圳、上海等一线城市，房价也普遍下滑了约30%，即便是深圳南山科技园的次新房， 价格也遭遇了大幅度下跌。这一系列变化，使得人们开始重新审视马云的预言。 这一转变的核心在于供需关系的根本性变化。最新统计数据显示，全国住房总量已超过6亿栋，足以容 纳30亿人口，远远超过了我国当前的14亿人口需求。人口结构的变化也加剧了这一趋势。00后人口较90 后减少了4700万，而00后至10后的人口总数较80后至90后更是减少了1.1亿。随着"421"家庭结构逐渐成 为主流，住房需求呈现出结构性减少的趋势。 与此同时，城镇化率的不断提升也导致新增购房需求显著减少。据预测，2026年全国小学生人数将减少 263万，这进一步表明需求端正在持续萎缩。在这样的背景下，政策风向也在悄然转变，楼市正经历着 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant declines in property values, driven by various economic and demographic factors, leading to a shift in consumer behavior and investment strategies [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - Nationally, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to July [4]. - In Shenzhen, those who believed in a market rebound have seen losses of around 10% this year [4]. - Property prices have dropped over 30% in some areas, with average prices falling from over 90,000 to over 60,000 [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Income levels have declined due to the pandemic, leading to reduced purchasing power and increased financial strain on individuals [4][5]. - The aging population is increasing, with over 310 million elderly people, leading to a decrease in housing demand as many retirees may sell their homes to improve their quality of life [5]. - The declining birth rate is contributing to a supply-demand imbalance in the housing market [5]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Younger generations are increasingly opting for renting over buying, with changing societal norms around marriage and homeownership [7]. - The introduction of policies allowing rental rights for school admissions has further shifted perceptions about homeownership [7]. - Economic uncertainty has led to decreased confidence in purchasing homes, with potential buyers hesitant to commit due to fears of job stability and income [7][8]. Group 4: Market Liquidity - The current market is characterized by a significant oversupply of properties, with many listings remaining unsold for months [8]. - In major cities, properties in core areas have seen price reductions of around 30% from peak levels [8]. - The secondary housing market is facing challenges, with a large number of listings and limited buyer interest, particularly in less desirable locations [8]. Group 5: Holding Costs - The costs associated with owning multiple properties are rising, including maintenance fees and potential new taxes [9][10]. - New regulations are expected to increase transparency in property taxation, which may lead to higher costs for landlords [9][10]. Group 6: Strategic Recommendations - For first-time buyers, it is advised to focus on personal housing needs rather than market fluctuations, as current conditions may offer favorable purchasing opportunities [12]. - Investors are cautioned to reconsider their strategies, as most properties will primarily serve as residences rather than investment vehicles [12]. - Those holding multiple properties should reassess their asset management strategies, considering selling underperforming assets and leveraging quality properties for rental income [13][15].

Group 1: Market Trends - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a significant adjustment in the real estate market, with only 6 cities experiencing a month-on-month increase in new residential property prices, the lowest since the implementation of major policies last September [1] - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, while the sales area and sales revenue of new residential properties fell by 4.0% and 6.5%, respectively, highlighting a weakening effect of the "price for volume" strategy [1] - The area of new housing starts saw a substantial decline of 19.4%, further exacerbating market pessimism [1] Group 2: Performance of Major Cities - Shanghai stands out as the only first-tier city with a continuous month-on-month increase in new residential property prices for 10 consecutive months, with July sales reaching 31.4 billion yuan, where luxury properties contributed 41% of total sales [4] - In contrast, Beijing's market remains weak despite some luxury projects boosting sales, while Guangzhou has not seen any month-on-month price increases for 10 months, and Shenzhen continues to experience a widening decline [4] - Among 31 major second-tier cities, only Urumqi and Changchun reported month-on-month price increases, with cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou also facing declines [4] Group 3: Policy Responses - Despite efforts from central and local governments to stabilize the market, the response has been lukewarm, with policies such as expanding affordable housing supply in population inflow cities failing to reverse the downward trend [5] - Beijing's recent easing of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road did not address more impactful measures like core area restrictions or mortgage rates, leading to perceptions of passive rather than proactive policy adjustments [5] - The recovery of market confidence faces multiple challenges, including limited effectiveness of the "price for volume" strategy in the second-hand market and weak demand in the new housing market [5]

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is currently undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with a significant decline in investment and housing prices, necessitating continued policy support to stimulate demand and restore the market's focus on housing as a necessity and for public welfare [1][2][3] Investment Trends - From January to July, national real estate development investment reached 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0% [1] - The new construction area of residential buildings fell by 19.4% year-on-year, but the decline has been narrowing, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [2] Price Movements - In July, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [3] - Second and third-tier cities saw year-on-year price declines of 2.8% and 4.2%, respectively, with reductions also narrowing [3] Market Recovery Indicators - The trend of price declines in the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with some cities experiencing price increases [3][4] - Financial support for real estate is improving, with bank approvals for loans significantly increasing, which may lead to a reduction in the year-on-year decline in real estate investment in the second half of the year [2] Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that local governments should focus on stabilizing housing prices and adapt pricing strategies to better match market demand [5] - There is a call for continued exploration of policies to encourage housing demand and improve the overall market environment [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization after a period of decline, with a trend towards recovery expected to continue in the future [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Trends - In July, new home prices in first-tier cities saw a narrowing decline both year-on-year and month-on-month, with a 0.2% month-on-month decrease, which is a 0.1 percentage point improvement from the previous month [2][3]. - Year-on-year, first-tier cities experienced a 1.1% drop in new home prices, a reduction of 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, with Shanghai showing a significant increase of 6.1% [3][4]. - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased to 5 in July, with Shanghai and Urumqi both seeing a 0.3% increase, indicating a slight recovery in certain markets [2][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is currently in a seasonal adjustment phase, with July and August typically being slower months, but first-tier cities are showing signs of stabilization in the new home market [1][4]. - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities is under pressure, with high listing volumes leading to a buyer's market, particularly in cities like Beijing where listings exceeded 160,000 [4][5]. - The demand for second-hand homes is increasing, especially among young people and new urban residents, as affordability improves due to falling prices [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Experts predict that the trend of price stabilization will continue, supported by a narrowing year-on-year price index across 70 cities and a reduction in new home sales to levels not seen since 2010 [5]. - Policy adjustments aimed at restoring the housing market's fundamentals, including support for education and employment, are expected to bolster housing consumption and mitigate panic selling in the second-hand market [5]. - The shift towards affordable and quality housing, along with urban renewal initiatives, is anticipated to drive future demand and stabilize new home prices [5][6].