十五五新基建
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每周推荐 | 开年经济与政策的“新变化”
申万宏源宏观· 2026-02-14 03:09
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new changes in the economy and policies at the beginning of the year, highlighting shifts in production, demand, and policy signals that may impact investment opportunities and economic recovery. Group 1: Changes in Production - Manufacturing production has significantly declined in January, possibly due to the early return of laborers before the Spring Festival. However, the average production sentiment over the past two months continues to show a recovery trend [1]. Group 2: Demand Highlights - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 may extend the "export rush" window at the beginning of the year, potentially sustaining export sentiment. Domestic demand may see a temporary rebound due to the longer holiday and early preparations for consumption in various regions. Investment may also improve moderately, supported by new infrastructure policies and incremental measures [2]. Group 3: Positive Policy Signals - The most challenging period for the real estate sector may have passed, with various policies aimed at stabilizing the market. Multiple government departments are enhancing policy coordination, with fiscal and monetary policies working together to focus on consumption, equipment investment, and the private economy. Local policy deployments are being advanced, with some regions holding their "New Year first meetings" earlier to kickstart annual work [3].